Post Draft Talk

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, Darth Pees said:

Can someone explain to me (since I'm too dumb to do the math and research here) what we would lose if we stood at 16, took James, then traded our 2nd rounders to trade back into 32 to get Jackson?

Obviously Hurst, but I'm assuming we'd also lose Averett and Orlando Brown Jr.?

 

3 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

Pick 16: Derwin James

OR

Pick 25: Hayden Hurst

Pick 86: Mark Andrews

Pick 118: Anthony Averett

Pick 122: Kenny Young

Pick 212: Greg Senat

The draft would presumably look like:

Pick 16: Derwin James

Pick 32: Lamar Jackson

Pick 83: Orlando Brown

Pick 132: Jaleel Scott

Pick 154: Jordan Lasley

Pick 190: Deshon Elliot

Pick 215: Bradley Bozeman

Pick 238: Zach Sieler

- minus 2019 2nd round pick

[diamondbull424]

55 minutes ago, berlin calling said:

sure, but you could read aforementioned tweet as DeCosta differing from Ozzies opinion so Oh may very well have decided to take LJ with somebody like DC not fully in favour.

anyhow, drafts done with and Oz has one last season to prove he's one of the best in business still.

This draft class won’t be able to be fairly graded until at least 3-4 years down the road. Guys like Jackson, Andrews, Averett, and Jaleel Scott probably won’t even start until a year or two down the road.

[BareYourTeeth]

4 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

 

The draft would presumably look like:

Pick 16: Derwin James

Pick 32: Lamar Jackson

Pick 83: Orlando Brown

Pick 118: Anthony Averett

Pick 154: Jordan Lasley

Pick 190: Deshon Elliot

Pick 215: Bradley Bozeman

Pick 238: Zach Sieler

- minus 2019 2nd round pick

^

[berlin calling]

1 minute ago, diamondbull424 said:

This draft class won’t be able to be fairly graded until at least 3-4 years down the road. Guys like Jackson, Andrews, Averett, and Jaleel Scott probably won’t even start until a year or two down the road.

agreed, the last sentence was generally speaking. still months to go to build the team that'll show up week 1. he'll have enough work still untill retirement and i am sure he wants to go out on a high note ie. playoffs

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

10 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

 

The draft would presumably look like:

Pick 16: Derwin James

Pick 32: Lamar Jackson

Pick 83: Orlando Brown

Pick 132: Jaleel Scott

Pick 154: Jordan Lasley

Pick 190: Deshon Elliot

Pick 215: Bradley Bozeman

Pick 238: Zach Sieler

- minus 2019 2nd round pick

okay now im sad

[diamondbull424]

11 minutes ago, BareYourTeeth said:

^

It needed no correction. The trade down with the Titans provided us with the 125th pick. That is the pick that we later swapped with the Eagles for the 132nd pick. Thus without the trade down, the 2019 2nd round pick would not have been enough to compensate for the Eagles loss of value. So we would have had to instead swap our 118th pick (4th round) for their 132nd pick (4th round).

Edit: So either we would have chose to  swap the 4th round pick and lost out on Averett or we would have instead chosen to send away our 5th round pick outright, which would have resulted in a loss of Jordan Lasley.

But since the theme seemed to be that the Ravens didn’t want to miss out on picks, the most likely of the possibilities would have been for them to choose to swap the picks, just with a greater loss of value.

[DreamKid]

I grow more worried about the center position each day. Bozeman and Skura can survive a game but just aren't of the caliber to start imo. I've been watching Skura's play from last year and he was the weak link on our line and got pushed around frequently. He performed admirably for being our like 8th option, but he can't man the inside. Alex Lewis has been thrown around as an option, and so has another conversion in Siragusa, but that isn't some easy transition. I wonder if there's any decent trade targets out there?

[diamondbull424]

20 minutes ago, Darth Pees said:

okay now im sad

I can understand why you’re sad. We essentially lost out on one of the top 10 safety prospects of the last decade, arguably top 5.

The only way we will feel better about this is if:

a) James becomes a bust or doesn’t live up to his All Pro potential- in which case we feel we dodged the bullet.

b) Hurst, Andrews, Averett, and Young will have to see at least two of them become pro bowl talents.

c) Our tight end duo really elevates the offense beyond the level of recognition they receive. They do this by putting so much pressure on opposing defenses that the offense becomes a top 10 offense because of their impact.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

5 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

I can understand why you’re sad. We essentially lost out on one of the top 10 safety prospects of the last decade, arguably top 5.

The only way we will feel better about this is if:

a) James becomes a bust or doesn’t live up to his All Pro potential- in which case we feel we dodged the bullet.

b) Hurst, Andrews, Averett, and Young will have to see at least two of them become pro bowl talents.

c) Our tight end duo really elevates the offense beyond the level of recognition they receive. They do this by putting so much pressure on opposing defenses that the offense becomes a top 10 offense because of their impact.

Conventional wisdom says option A is the likeliest to happen. Recent Ravens history since about 2010 says option B is most likely to not happen.

[diamondbull424]

57 minutes ago, DreamKid said:

I grow more worried about the center position each day. Bozeman and Skura can survive a game but just aren't of the caliber to start imo. I've been watching Skura's play from last year and he was the weak link on our line and got pushed around frequently. He performed admirably for being our like 8th option, but he can't man the inside. Alex Lewis has been thrown around as an option, and so has another conversion in Siragusa, but that isn't some easy transition. I wonder if there's any decent trade targets out there?

I think the smartest move continues to be to just have Lewis, Bozeman, and Skura compete for the center position. Siragusa has no experience and is coming off an injury, we should just have him compete with Hurst for the LG spot (if healthy).

Teams don’t usually give up good centers. Which is why you usually have to draft them to have a chance at them. (Which is why I was so high on Frank Ragnow.) Worst case scenario if none of these options look good then center becomes one of our biggest needs heading into the 2019 draft. We had enough excitement with this one, we can afford to have a boring draft where a center becomes the top pick if worthy.

[drd23]

Statistical evidence that old rookies tend not to have as successful careers as younger ones

Quote

The more interesting question then is not why more young players are being targeted now but rather what teams were doing for all those years. Looking from 2000 to 2013 (the most recent draft year for which no first-round pick could still be on his rookie contract, including an option year), younger first-rounders were most successful. To measure this, we can use Pro-Football-Reference.com’s weighted career approximate value (CarAV), which rewards a player for his contribution to a team’s points scored and prevented as well as overall performance in other key statistics.

Younger draftees perform better

First-round draft picks’ approximate career value based their ages as of Sept. 1 of the draft year, 2000-13

		AVERAGE
AGE	NO. DRAFTEES	OVERALL PICK	CAREER APPROXIMATE VALUE
20-21	98	15	43.8
22	174	16	42.9
23	146	17	39.5
24+	27	18	33.6

SOURCE: PRO-FOOTBALL-REFERENCE.COM

While the youngest group of players age 20-21 performs only slightly better on average (43.8 average approximate career value) than the second-youngest at age 22 (42.9), the gap quickly widens. The 146 first-round picks who would have been 23 years old on Sept. 1 of their draft year had a 39.5 CarAV. And the 27 who were age 24 and over averaged just 33.6.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/age-played-a-bigger-role-in-the-nfl-draft-its-about-time/

[baltimoreRebel]

20 minutes ago, drd23 said:

Statistical evidence that old rookies tend not to have as successful careers as younger ones

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/age-played-a-bigger-role-in-the-nfl-draft-its-about-time/

It's an interesting nugget. In the big scheme of things, when you look at it. How many draft picks are successful in general? Personally I don't think that 9% difference is that big of a deal. 

On tape, Hurst was the best TE available and I'm okay with the pick. Do I wish he was 21? Absolutely. There's no guarantee he's a homerun and chances are he's not with us after his rookie deal unless he turns into a stud or above average TE. 

[drd23]

2 hours ago, baltimoreRebel said:

It's an interesting nugget. In the big scheme of things, when you look at it. How many draft picks are successful in general? Personally I don't think that 9% difference is that big of a deal. 

Those aren't percentages.  AV is a statistical method developed 10 years ago to assign a simple value/rating to any NFL player in every season. Therefore the 33.6 AV that the 24+ year old 1st round rookies average is nearly 25% lower than the 43.8 AV achieved by the youngest rookies on average.  Put simply, the oldest 1st rounders perform 25% worse on average over their entire careers.

Further on in that article it looks at first round QBs specifically.  Not only do the youngest QBs do significantly better than the oldest, the oldest also have a higher bust rate

[drd23]

Kenny Young, not Kenny Bell gets #40.

We already knew Lamar Jackson #8, Lasley #12 and Hurst #81.  Interesting that DeShon Elliott got #21 which is usually a highly coveted number among CBs 

[sp6488]

23 minutes ago, drd23 said:

Those aren't percentages.  AV is a statistical method developed 10 years ago to assign a simple value/rating to any NFL player in every season. Therefore the 33.6 AV that the 24+ year old 1st round rookies average is nearly 25% lower than the 43.8 AV achieved by the youngest rookies on average.  Put simply, the oldest 1st rounders perform 25% worse on average over their entire careers.

Further on in that article it looks at first round QBs specifically.  Not only do the youngest QBs do significantly better than the oldest, the oldest also have a higher bust rate

Do they control for years in the league?  I'd be a bit more concerned about AV/year than total AV as it's a cumulative stat.  3 additional years (21 to 24; and really that's 24+) could explain the difference among similar players if they both played until they were 32, for example.  For one player that's 12 years, while it's 9 for the other.  With identical production in the years they play, that would account for pretty much all of the difference.