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Do we overuse the phrase "Could have drafted him later" ?

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14 minutes ago, Jaguarfan said:

We drafted Tanner Lee in the 6th round when we could have signed him on day 2 of UDFA signings 

You're not wrong

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Jaguarfan said:

We drafted Tanner Lee in the 6th round when we could have signed him on day 2 of UDFA signings 

6th and 7th round picks are "getting a head start on your priority free agents" anyway.  Probably most of the 5th round too.

Primary use of these late picks is "if you think you're going to have trouble signing this guy as a UDFA".

Edited by PossibleCabbage

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I think it can be an overused term however 4 years from the draft the guy can be some all pro player and it wouldn’t matter. If you as a team really like the guy I say pull the trigger on him. Travis Fredrick comes to mind when I think of this. One is the best centers in the NFL however when the pick came people thought it was an odd pick. Today people would love to him on there team.

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Yeah. If he's your guy, you take him. It just takes one of the other 31 teams to move up and snag him.

People hate on the Penny pick, but I read that there were teams that called and tried to trade for him right away.

Take whoever you want if you can. Like others have said, stick to your board.

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It is true in maybe 1 in a 100 cases, most of the time, it is just opinion of fans who haven't a clue where a player is ranked except what he has been told on NFL.com, by a bunch of scouts who nobody wanted anymore.

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Absolutely, yeah. There's a solid four months of draftniks, professional and amateur, adjusting their boards and basically steadily shifting toward very similar results, and I think by the time the draft rolls around, everyone has forgotten that those boards really don't have much at all to do with the actual draft's results. I think NFL teams have far more specific boards, and the vary more greatly than draft analysts in what they're looking for. And over the years, we've all seen "reaches" pan out and "steals" bust. I feel like this is especially talked about in regard to trades. Every time a team trades up for a player unexpectedly, people freak out that it was unnecessary, and then almost always it turns out that some other team was interested, or at least the team trading up had reason to believe the player wouldn't last. Honestly, I think it's more beneficial after the draft to examine why teams made the moves they did, as opposed to the usual grading system of "I had this player at #50, he went #90, so amazing pick" and vice versa.

Honestly, I'm reaching the point in reacting to the draft where I'm kind of starting to trust/distrust based on front office track record as opposed to pre-draft boards. Aside from the trade up for Mahomes I haven't been enamored with anything KC has done in years at the time of the draft, but it always pans out. Whereas I've loved every Browns draft class since the Manziel mistake, and they're still Brownsing so far.

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14 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

You stay true to your board end of story 

Agreed ... what does a GM think of his staff/scouts who have been out on the road for 1-2 years seeing these guys.

 

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17 hours ago, Jaguarfan said:

We drafted Tanner Lee in the 6th round when we could have signed him on day 2 of UDFA signings 

Complete nonsense. Say what you want about his play, he was invited to the combine and had some developmental value to NFL teams.

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Everyone seems to be indicating that Billy Price was a reach for the Bengals.  I don't disagree per se, but I'm not sure if he would have been there when we picked again.  James Daniels and Austin Corbett went before our 2nd round pick.  If the Bengals had Price as their #2 Center (behind Ragnow assuming), whose to say other teams didn't as well?

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21 minutes ago, TheVillain112 said:

Everyone seems to be indicating that Billy Price was a reach for the Bengals.  I don't disagree per se, but I'm not sure if he would have been there when we picked again.  James Daniels and Austin Corbett went before our 2nd round pick.  If the Bengals had Price as their #2 Center (behind Ragnow assuming), whose to say other teams didn't as well?

There is no way for a fan to say anyone is a reach. We don't know anything. It's like me questioning a doctor because I read an article.

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I feel like most of the problem is to phrase the question in a declarative (i.e. "the team made a mistake") fashion rather than an inquisitive one (i.e. "why did the team take this player in this spot?.")  It's okay to question why teams do things, it's less okay to profess you know these reasons and that they are bad reasons.

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, CalhounLambeau said:

There is no way for a fan to say anyone is a reach. We don't know anything. It's like me questioning a doctor because I read an article.

But if you read lots of articles by "experts" who do not practice medicine unless it is theoretical, you could state your case firmly based on absolutely no facts.  That has to be worth something.¬¬

 

I am being snarky but I do not take myself seriously in the NFL draft.  i love to talk about it and look at prospects but I know in the end, on draft day, I know about as much as Mel Kiper about who teams will pick and why and who will make it in the NFL. 

Edited by jebrick

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Definitely overused, though I'm not sure which is more overused, that phrase or "generational talent" which seems to be used every year or every other year about people that play at nearly every position.

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It's a question of perceived value.

The most common occurrence of this sentence is in connection with the concept of "over-drafting". Well, this goes into two different aspects of perceived value, perceived player value to your team, and perceived player value to the other teams.

Since most picks can only be judged reasonably after 3 years, and if one is to consider the draft odds and margin of errors in player evaluation, you should also consider that the definition of over-drafting is completely based on your perception and not an established fact.

Given the fact that every team has access to a lot more information than the average analyst and is on another galaxy in comparison to the average fan, mos of the uses of the therm are probably not even what you call an "informed decision".

Also going back to the start of my post, there's a huge mix-up in what is considered an ability to evaluate a player and an ability to "guess" what the draft order will be.

 

 

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