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RaidersAreOne

2018 Draft Recap Thread

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Well the draft has come and gone boys. I don't know if I have had such a mix of emotions during a draft before. How do you think we did overall? Here is what we came away with this year:

  • Kolton Miller 
  • PJ Hall 
  • Brandon Parker 
  • Arden Key 
  • Nick Nelson
  • Maurice Hurst 
  • Johnny Townsend 
  • Azeem Victor 
  • Marcell Ateman 

Initially I was livid, as Miller was a "reach" and James was still there. However I think as the draft went on, we made more and more value moves and came away with a very solid group overall. My main impressions:

  • We got WAY better at pass-rushing and more athletic on D. Hurst and Key have legit 1st round talent, and Hall is a physical freak who had great production. I love how we are finally addressing our pass-rush department. 
  • Gruden and Co. were terrified about out T situation and addressed that aggressively. I have warmed up to Miller and think he can start day 1 at RT. Parker is a similar player to Miller in the sense they are both massive (6'9 and 6'8), can move, have high motors and need to be coached up. They could be our bookends if they take the next steps under Cable.
  • We are no longer overly concerned about taking players with troubled pasts. Key and Victor have both been suspended and had issues in in the past. Both of which would have been drafted much higher if they didn't have those problems. At the picks we got them, it was well worth the risk.
  • With Townsend and UDFA K Pinerio, we may have gotten our ST core for a long time. Both of which were considered the top 1/2 players at their position. I am surprised Eddy didn't even get drafted after leading the nation with 94% FG percentage. From what I have read, he may have one of the strongest legs in the league already.
  • We were very active in trading up and down, which is very nice to hear. Gruden said he and Reggie had great communication throughout the process and both were fielding calls. There were rumors of the war room being very heated and split, but from everything I have watched/read since, it looks like guys were having fun and genuinely enjoying themselves. 

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My only complaint is not getting an RB. Hopefully Lynch can hold up again this year. 

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6 minutes ago, RaidersAreOne said:

I would love to hear what some of this sites big draft dogs think. @jrry32 @CWood21 @goldfishwars @minutemancl @CalhounLambeau. I obviously missed some so feel free to tag any you can think of.

Planning on doing some draft reviews, so I don't want to spill too much.  Seems like your classic high-risk, high-reward draft from the Raiders.  I was probably a bit higher on Kolton Miller than most, so trading down and still getting him seems like a strong move.  Especially when I was convinced they'd take him at 10.  Seems a bit of a big gamble to take two players with LoC questions with their next two picks.  Arden Key is a huge gamble because his '17 tape was mediocre compared to his '16 tape, although to be fair to Key they used him more as an off-ball LB as opposed to a pass rusher.  And there's the rehab concern as well.  Does Oakland run a 43 or 34, I can't remember?  Nick Nelson's injury gives me a bit of pause, but I think he can be a solid slot corner.  We know enough about Mo Hurst.  1st round talent, medical questions sunk his stock.  High risk, high reward draft class.  Personally, I would have gone with a bit more floor in this draft but not a bad class by any means.

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44 minutes ago, RaidersAreOne said:

I would love to hear what some of this sites big draft dogs think. @jrry32 @CWood21 @goldfishwars @minutemancl @CalhounLambeau. I obviously missed some so feel free to tag any you can think of.

Gonna do a draft review thread again this year, but I thought it was the most entertaining draft of all. Not even close. 

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I’m ecstatic I’ve  been waiting for a draft like this for a long time. While I may not agree on all the players that were picked, it’s a solid strategy to rebuild the lines first.

Miller and Parker will probably start day one because of injury and  lack of talent on the Oline.

I’m not too worried about the knuckleheads drafted, Paul Guenther has plenty of experience with players like that in Cincinnati and he got the best out of them.

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1 hour ago, RaidersAreOne said:

I would love to hear what some of this sites big draft dogs think. @jrry32 @CWood21 @goldfishwars @minutemancl @CalhounLambeau. I obviously missed some so feel free to tag any you can think of.

Well I am flattered. I planned on doing a detailed breakdown of the Giants offseason over the next few weeks in the Giants forum.

As far as the Raiders, it was definitely the most interesting draft this year. I expected Gruden to make some goofy decisions, and he certainly did, especially early on. But, the critics are right when they say the Raiders probably had the best day 3. The Hurst situation is well documented, but I really like the Ateman, Parker, and Townsend picks as well. There are lots of boom or bust potential picks in this draft. It is probably the 2nd most volatile draft behind the Bills; it is at least top-5. Tom Cable is a big phony, so until he is gone, I don't think Miller or Parker have a chance. I like Parker more than Kolton Miller as far as succeeding in the NFL. 

There is stuff to really like, and a few things to really hate. Ultimately, it comes down to how well you think your coaching staff can perform and get the most out of some of these talented but raw players. They ended strong and got a lot of value on day 3, so its definitely worth looking at in a hopeful light. 

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Was not happy with our first 3 picks but will warm up to the need to beef up the Carr insurance. Added pass rush from inside/out so that should help the DB's get picks. A 3rd on a WR for one year is WAY too much, especially one who could get suspended again for longer. I think his head is on straight after seeing JuJu drafted and make him expendable with a contract on the horizion. Hopefully he balls and we get a 3rd comp pick to wash it out.

Overall I think it was a good draft, filling many needs except for RB. They must LOVE Martin. Both lines have depth, DB's have vets that hopefully have something left in the tank. I have doubts about our long-term outlook but think we can compete for the playoffs and anything less is UNEXCEPTABLE!!! Gruden talked about not cursing and all that from before but honestly 100,000,000.00 I want CHUCKY yelling, screaming, cursing and learing/grinning if were not. I'm worried he's like a vet FA who just cashed in and thinks the 'work' is over...I BETTER be wrong!!!

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1 hour ago, Bitty 2.0 said:

I’m ecstatic I’ve  been waiting for a draft like this for a long time. While I may not agree on all the players that were picked, it’s a solid strategy to rebuild the lines first.

Miller and Parker will probably start day one because of injury and  lack of talent on the Oline.

I’m not too worried about the knuckleheads drafted, Paul Guenther has plenty of experience with players like that in Cincinnati and he got the best out of them.

I mean you been saying drafting atleast two OT I know u were loving it. Just my 02 I’ve warmed up to the class a little bit but still feel uneasy overall

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I like the draft

  • just thought we could have received more in a first round trade down... for example Bills traded up from 12 to 7 and it cost them 2 2nds... all we got was a 3rd rounder
  • trading up for Brandon Parker? no other team drafted a Tackle early in the 3rd... was it really necessary? cost us a 5th and 6th rounder for a guy who would have been there with original pick

 

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1(15): Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA, 6'8/309 

Games Watched: Colorado, Memphis, USC, Texas A&M, Stanford

Grade: D

This was the one player I singled out as not wanting us to draft.  He's the most athletic OT this year (https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/kolton-miller) but I had him as a Round 3 project type of pick a la Jason Spriggs from a few years ago.  He's huge, shows decent strength, and has a great feet but I don't like drafting OTs that get beat up in college in the top 15, especially considering the other talent that was available either at 10 or 15.  If the Patriots drafted Miller I would feel confident in his development under their OL coach but not so much with almost any other team, especially Tom Cable who has drafted similar types of players in Seattle and struggled to develop them.  Furthermore, I hated the value we got in the trade down as Tampa bay received substantially more and I would have much rather done what the Packers did, trading all the way down to the late 20s to pick up a future 1st and then we could have still traded back up in front of New England to grab Kolton if we really wanted him.  While we obviously saw Kolton Miller as a 1st Round player, I don't even think the Raiders were that happy with this pick as Vic Tafur reported that he was our 3rd or 4th option (1. Roquan Smith, 2. Mike McGlinchey, then the scouts had Derwin James at 3).  This pick is all on the coaches in my opinion as it is now their responsibility to develop him.

Projected Role: starting RT + future LT

2 (57): PJ Hall, DT, Sam Houston St6/308, 4.71, 99% vert, 95% broad

Games Watched: North Dakota St, Incarnate Word

Grade: C+

I'm giving the Raiders the benefit of the doubt on this one as Hall only has 2 cut ups available from 2017 so I can't really make a full evaluation of him just based on those 2 games.  Furthermore, he might have had the best pro day for a DT of all time without exaggeration and he combines that insane athleticism with incredible stats.  Nevertheless, those two cut ups were not very impressive.  He played a lot of DE and actually looked better there than inside where he would get washed by down blocks.  He flashed awesome explosion and showed the ability to speed rush on the edge and dip around the OT although his effort level was a little inconsistent.  Like Kolton, this one is again on the coaches but unlike Cable I trust Guenther to find and develop 3 Techs for his one-gap scheme.

Projected Role: 3 Tech

3(65): Brandon Parker, OT, North Carolina A&T, 6'7/305

Games Watched: Grambling

Grade: B

Similar to PJ Hall, Parker is at a small school and thus had limited game tape available to watch.  However, I loved what I saw of him vs Grambling.  He moves incredibly well for his size, easily controls the DL with his length and strength, and has a strong base which allows him to recover when initially beaten.  Maybe a little bit of reach but Im going to trust our front office that he was in danger of being taken before our pick.  Furthermore, I like the idea of doubling up on OT as we know that Carr requires lots of protection and it makes economic sense to get OL on cheap rookie deals given our lack of cap space and the value of the position

Projected Role: compete w/ Kolton for RT immediately, future starting LT or RT

Trade 3(79) for Martavis Bryant, WR

Grade: C

Really dislike this trade as I think it's very short sighted.  First, I think Bryant is going to be awesome for us this year and he brings a much needed down field threat to the offense.  However, this is a steep price to pay for what is essentially a 1 year rental.  There is an opportunity cost here which needs to be fully considered, where we are trading 4 years of a cost controlled player for 1 year of Bryant.  Even if we resign Bryant after this year, I'm not sure if that is the best use of our resources considering Bryant's drug history and the incoming massive extensions to Amari and Mack.  

Projected Role: Outside Starting WR

3( 87): Arden Key, Edge, LSU, 6'5/238, 62% 3 cone, 25% vert, 63% broad, 48% length

Games Watched: Alabama, Auburn, Wisconsin (2016), Florida (2016), Ole Miss (2016)

Grade: A

Without the character issues I have Key graded as a Round 1/2 player.  Tall and skinny with long arms, Key beats OTs with speed and bend around the edge.  While he'll struggle against the run and converting speed to power, he has the twitchiness and explosion of a 10 sack per year speed rusher.  The risks are high here but the 3rd round is the perfect place to take such a risk given the massive upside.  Furthermore, I think having Gruden and Bruce Irvin provides a good support system for him along with Guenther who has experience dealing with similar kinds of character concerns.  His poor testing and weight is a big concern but the tape from 2016 shows a twitched up edge rusher.

Projected Role: 3rd pass rusher and Bruce Irvin replacement next year

4(110): Nick Nelson, CB, Wisconsin, 5'10/200, 4.52 40, 62% broad, 25% length

Games Watched: Indiana, Miami, Maryland

Grade: B+

Love this pick as I had a 2/3 Round grade on Nelson.  Nelson can play either in the slot or on the outside.  Nelson has great feet, does an excellent job finding the ball in the air, and has fantastic mirroring ability in man.  However, he can be a little too handsy, he's a little tight out of his backpedal, and he lacks great makeup speed for an outside CB.  The injury is a risk but the reports show that it's only a 6 week recovery and he should be ready to go by training camp.

Projected Role: compete for Nickel CB and potentially starting outside CB in future

5(140): Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan, 6'1/292, 4.97 40, 45% 3 cone, 71% vert, 42% broad, 11% length

Games Watched: Ohio St, Wisconsin, Penn St, Michigan St, South Carolina, Indiana, Florida

Grade: A+

I wouldnt have been that upset if Hurst was our pick at 10.  Hurst is the most consistently disruptive DL in the entire class with an explosive first step only rivaled by Taven Bryan.  He can get washed in the run game now and then but that's more than worth the interior disruption that he offers.  His low pad level and first step allows him to generate a strong bull rush and consistently make plays in the backfield.  His testing numbers are a bit of a concern because they don't confirm the explosion he shows on tape and thus its possible that he's jumping the snap.  Regardless, it's hard to ignore when someone is this dominant on film against big time competition.  His game vs Michigan St is one of the best games from any prospect this year (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSOTDLgW9Gs).  While he lasted to the 5th round because of his heart condition, I still think he would've been a mid/late 2nd round pick even without it as I don't think the NFL was as high on him as the scouting community.  That should actually be a positive sign for us as it shows that maybe the heart condition isn't as serious as we think it is.  Right now it seems like he'll need to be periodically checked by doctors but in the 5th round even if he can only play a couple of years it's worth the pick as the investment isn't that high.  Awesome pick and a perfect fit in Guenther's defense.

Projected Role: 3 Tech

5(173): Johnny Townsend, P, Florida

I'm not even going to attempt to scout a punter

6(216): Azeem Victor, LB, Washington, 6'2/240, 4.72 40, 34% 3 cone, 41% vert, 54% broad

Games Watched: none

Grade: n/a

Haven't watched Victor so I can't comment on him

Projected Role: compete for MLB, special teamer

7(228): Marcell Ateman, WR, Oklahoma St, 6'4/216, 4.62 40, 28% 3 cone, 34% vert, 57% broad

Games Watched: TCU, Virginia Tech

Grade: B

There were guys available that I like more but i'm not going to argue with a 7th round pick.  Big + slow jump ball WR who can attack the ball in the air with his hands and looks surprisingly smooth in and out of routes but had a very limited route tree at Oklahoma St and has low upside with his poor athletic profile.  Ok pick but I doubt he makes much of an impact although we need some WR depth behind our big 3.

Projected Role: fight for the #4 WR spot and special teams

Overall: C

While I'm not a fan of the draft overall I'm still not necessarily pessimistic about it.  An incredibly boom/bust draft, almost all of our picks have a wide range of outcomes and it should be exciting to watch their development.  I'm particularly excited to watch PJ Hall as his combination of production + athleticism is mouth watering and it'll be really interesting to see how he develops.  All in all I think the success of this class is going to fall on the coaching staff, as Gruden and his assistants are showing a ton of confidence that they can develop a bunch of raw talents.  The lack of LBs concerns me a lot but I understand the philosophy of building up the pass rush and OL.  Furthermore, this draft made it clear that we didn't think we had the pass rushers that fit Guenther's 1 gap penetration scheme and both PJ Hall and Maurice Hurst are perfect fits for that system.  Even with the poor grade, this class is incredibly exciting and we'll see if the coaching staff's confidence is warranted.

Projected Depth Chart

QB: Derek Carr

RB: Marshawn Lynch, Doug Martin

FB: Keith Smith

WR: Amari Cooper

WR: Martavis Bryant

 

WR: Jordy Nelson

TE: Jared Cook

LT: Donald Penn

LG: KO

OC: Rodney Hudson

RG: Gabe Jackson

RT: Kolton Miller/Brandon Parker

 

DE: Khalil Mack

3Tech: PJ Hall/Maurice Hurst/Mario Edwards

NT: Justin Ellis

DE: Bruce Irvin/Arden Key

LB: Tahir Whitehead

LB: Corey James

LB: ELamur/NMorrow/MLee

CB: Gareon Conley

CB: Rashaan Melvin

NCB: Shareece Wright/Senquez Golson/Nick Nelson

SS: Obi Melinfonwu

FS: Karl Joseph
 

 

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1 hour ago, Humble_Beast said:

just thought we could have received more in a first round trade down

 

omg...let it go

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What did you guys think of the rest of the AFC West's drafts? 

I thought Denver had a very solid draft, Chargers too. 

KC didn't have a first, but I still liked some of there picks. 

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Some thing that I thought was impressive was we started the draft with 4 picks under 200 and 3 above 100 and ended up with 1 under 200 and 5 over 100 counting Bryant. For all the naysayers and complainers about the first trade value and a few picks they reached on I would say that there were alot of balls in the air as this thing went along and the team stuck to their board and got value where they could. Very impressed with the draft outcome.

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