DEN - BUF Trade Offer - What Would You Have Done?

[bzane]

5 hours ago, pnies20 said:

I knew a guy that was a Denver cab driver and took him to the airport one time. Asked for his autograph and Elway talked trash to him. Wouldn’t sign it and made fun of him for being a cab driver.

That is like uber cruel!

[Broncofan]

48 minutes ago, Counselor said:

Wouldn’t have taken Guice. They took all team captains, all were seniors (Sutton graduated already despite one year left of eligibility), all were high character guys. 

To expand on this - Elway was p*ssed at the team appearing to give up on several games (PHI, WAS, LAC 2nd) - and the eye test said PHI/WAS were very fair criticisms.   We weren't going to win games, but several guys looked like they were dogging it in the 2H (Talib was prominent there, he got beat on TD's where effort was highly suspect).   Elway has plenty of blame by looking in the mirror, and acknowledged it, but he also pointed out the vets needed to better and put in full effort this season. 

So, the draft this year was really unprecedented and actually totally anti-Elway of old, in that he went for guys with football skills, and not just insane physical tools, who were projects football-skill wise.  They were also almost all team captains.   I suspect the last part was no coincidence.   I think that's why Rosen fell out of our top 5, and latest reports actually said Elway & Kubiak took Mayfield out last-day as well.   Now, I'm not a fan of ignoring talent over character, I want talent & character, and I'm ok with taking a risk on character if the value says we should (later rounds).  So I don't think this is a good long-term strategy to do it to this extreme. 

All of which to say - there was probably no way Elway was taking Guice with all that went down.   He did take a character risk in UDFA with Lowell Lotululei (Star's younger brother), but I think this draft was a very clear message about emphasizing football skills AND character as prerequisites.   Guice's issues may or may not be legit - but they probably ruled out Guice at 2.56 given how events unfolded.   I hope he's not going to be so absolute in future years (as I said I'd have taken Rosen at 1.5 myself, but I'm thrilled if Rosen is not going, that we took Chubb).

If we aren't getting Guice at 2.56, we'd have to go Oliver 2.56 to make the above trade payoff to a great return IMO.  That would mean our RB taken is at 3.99.   I personally don't mind, but I get the argument that Elway wasn't going to back off Freeman - in which case, if it's 2.56 or 2.71 he likely would have still gone Freeman.  @Counselor's take here on that I agree with.

I absolutely get the position that 1.12 & 1.22 could have netted really awesome guys - they were there.   What I'm not sold is that Elway would have taken the ideal combo.  I know I would have gone Vea/Hernandez or Wynn myself, but that doesn't mean Elway would have.  I would have gone 2.56 Oliver and then taking best RB at 3.99 (to me that's Kelly TBH there).  But again, that's no guarantee Elway would have.   And if Tampa had stayed 1.7 and gone Vea, well, then it really changes up.  And most importantly, Elway wouldn't have known at the time 1.5 was OTC how the board would shake out, this is all in hindsight (I know my picks because I made them when we talked about this pre-draft if we had a 1.5 for 1.12 and 1.22 scenario, but going to 2.40 & 2.56, projecting 35-50 picks ahead would have been a tall order for Elway).   

[DirtyDez]

Using the trade chart as a baseline (even though it’s irrelevant) shows that the Bills’ package to the Bucs was 400+ points over.  The Cards package to the Raiders was 50 points under.  Both moved up 5 spots. 

Good on you Bucs.

[bigbadbuff23835]

3 minutes ago, DirtyDez said:

Using the trade chart as a baseline (even though it’s irrelevant) shows that the Bills’ package to the Bucs was 400+ points over.  The Cards package to the Raiders was 50 points under.  Both moved up 5 spots. 

Good on you Bucs.

I blame the Jets

[titanrick]

I think if I had elways draft record, I’d take Chubb and call it good. If I had a gm with a decent track record of drafting, I’d take the extra picks. 

[DirtyDez]

1 minute ago, bigbadbuff23835 said:

I blame the Jets

Got to overpay to move into top-10.   It’s more of an indictment on the Raiders than Bills.

[DowNY]

11 hours ago, bucsfan333 said:

All that matters is Cleveland taking Ward over Chubb. It set everything in motion and let us get Buffalo's picks. ?

Crazy y'all were only 2 picks after Denver but couldn't get the same offer. Instead of 2 1sts, got 2 2nds. I dig it though

[Soko]

I would’ve moved back and taken Derwin James, Wynn/Hernandez, and Guice/Oliver. 

Although their haul wasn’t bad by any means.

[khodder]

I'd probably stay at 5 and pick the truly elite guy.

If they moved it to a 2019 1st instead of #22 and I didn't have to give up a 3rd in a deep draft I might consider it. 

[khodder]

14 hours ago, bucsfan333 said:

All that matters is Cleveland taking Ward over Chubb. It set everything in motion and let us get Buffalo's picks. ?

When you've got nothing at all at corner and a pretty decent rotation on the edge, I'd be inclined to take and elite corner too.

[BigMountainGoat]

Take the deal regardless whether Chubb is there. He is very good, but he was over hyped due to the edge rusher class being do bad

[bucsfan333]

4 hours ago, DowNY said:

Crazy y'all were only 2 picks after Denver but couldn't get the same offer. Instead of 2 1sts, got 2 2nds. I dig it though

I like that we got 12 and two seconds instead of two firsts. I'll take the extra pick.

[Roninho]

17 hours ago, Broncofan said:

So, Elway through DEN's beat reporter confirmed that BUF offered the following : 

1.12

1.22

2.56

for 

1.5

3.71 

Confirmed here -http://www.9news.com/article/sports/nfl/denver-broncos/a-look-inside-elways-day-1-strategy-why-chubb-trumped-bills-hefty-trade-offer/73-546939481 (So the offer is confirmed as true, not speculation).

Denver needs (if we don’t go QBOTF) were OL, ILB, WR, TE, CB, RB.   Yes we kinda suck lol.   Plus we have a  really bad cap situation in 2019 and too many bad contacts with aging stars.  So we can’t miss and need help everywhere. 

With hindsight it’s been suggested thus would have been our best case scenario: 

1.12 Vea 

1.22 Wynn or Hernandez at G

2.56 Oliver CB  

3.99 Best RB (not known if Freeman falls so have to assume another one)  

Instead of: 

1.5 Chubb 

3.71 Freeman 

3.99 CB Iyadom

 

To be clear we aren’t saying you get to change the other DEN picks.   Those are the picks that are directly affected.  Our reporters are doing those picks too as fodder for discussion.     

The DEN forum is pretty much almost all on board with Elway passing, for 3 reasons:

1.  No guarantee Elway would have made the best-case picks (passing on Freeman at 3.71 and going Oliver at 2.56, then taking a RB at 3.99, and say, going with Isiaih Henrnandez or Wynn at 1.22.  Vea probably yes, but even then - if Tampa doesn't move back, can't say for sure they don't take Vea at 1.7 either.  Then our draft result above completely changes). 

2.  More importantly, at 1.5, there was no way for Elway to know how the picks would run.  At 2.40, or a 3.71 or 3.99, or even at 5.149, when Elway traded picks, you have a very good idea of how the Big Board is going.  You don't at 1.5, not for 50+ picks later.    So it's entirely hindsight at 1.5 to project 50 picks later.   

3. Chubb to us at 1.5, Elway believes he's elite.  If he's not, then it's a bad move.  But if you believe it (Elway had him as 3 overall, and in the elite tier).  

Given that, pretty much everyone in the DEN forum is on board with Chubb at 1.5....but it's fun to hear what BUF was offering.  Unlike the Draft rumors, now it's concrete.

BUF is obviously happy that they didn't have to pay as much, obviously.   

But if you are Elway - do you stay with Chubb 1.5 or do you take that deal?   Remember you only can change those pick results.  And if you trade - who are you taking?   Have at it!  

I thought it over and changed my mind. Would i trade a first, another first and a second for a non-QB prospect? I would for Aaron Donald or Khalil Mack if they were starting year 2 of their rookie contract, but not as long as they are undrafted and still unproven.

So for me the answer would be no. And in my mind by not accepting the trade the Broncos essentially spend 2 first and a second on Chubb and a 3rd. Which i would not do.

It's the same reason why i hate the trade the Saints made spending 2 first round picks.

 

 

[tom cody]

I would have traded down for sure. Getting Chubb is big for Denver but adding more draft picks is always better IMO. 

[Broncofan]

For the record Beane confirmed that BUF would have done the deal - but CLE taking Ward at 1.4 instead of Chubb had Elway call off the deal.  Worked out for all 3 teams - DEN got the guy they wanted but didn’t think would be there at 1.5, BUF still got Allen without giving up 1.22 and TAM got to move back.  

CLE’s choice of Ward at 1.4, Elway passing on Rosen at 1.5, passing on the deal BUF offered,  all great fodder for what-ifs later.