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2019 NFL Draft Discussion

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4 hours ago, Leader said:

I reject the notion that there's talent to be mined for the defense at the top of the draft - but a similar payoff doesnt exist for offensive players.

We've been pulling down defensive talent with top draft picks as a consequence of injury, FA departures, poor talent evaluation (or player not performing yet) - and alike.

I'm not against addressing/filling needs - thats a necessity and obvious - but I'd prefer the potholes on the defensive side start getting filled up - eventually - at some point - so we can select SOMEBODY for the offense with a top draft pick or two - and in theory, enjoy their talents - at a low, affordable cost for the next 4-5 years.

It would be nice. Someday.

Without getting into a huge discussion about positional value, what position on offense outside of LT/QB has a big enough impact on an offense?

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It's not even worth talking about it anymore.  I have exhausted the discussion and in spite of all evidence to the contrary, people will still think that first round IOL/RB/TE/WR have high impacts on teams.  We could go 30 more years with the same trends continuing and people would still convince themselves we'd get lucky and break the trend. 

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Without getting into a huge discussion about positional value, what position on offense outside of LT/QB has a big enough impact on an offense?

I'm not viewing it in that manner - which personally I think fairly limited in scope. LT/QB only? Effectively, we've been DONE needing to draft for those positions for years - and theoretically, will be for many more to come. So - I guess that makes our drafts easy eh?

I'm considering it from a player perspective - not position - and that eventually there has to come some (offensive) player that can be slotted in and kick *** from the get go. Other teams seem capable of finding these guys.....are they all bottom feeders who feed at the top of the draft?  Perhaps so - dont know/cant say. 

Perhaps with the new DC we'll get better bang for all these defensive bucks we've been spending. Thats certainly hoped for as I dont think we can continually use our high draft slots on nothing but defensive players - difference makers - and exclude the offense to "well, we think this guy will develop into something". We hit at a decent enough rate to get by - and having AR certainly helps - but...................well, I'm repeating myself now.

 

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21 minutes ago, Leader said:

I'm not viewing it in that manner - which personally I think fairly limited in scope. LT/QB only? Effectively, we've been DONE needing to draft for those positions for years - and theoretically, will be for many more to come. So - I guess that makes our drafts easy eh?

I'm considering it from a player perspective - not position - and that eventually there has to come some (offensive) player that can be slotted in and kick *** from the get go. Other teams seem capable of finding these guys.....are they all bottom feeders who feed at the top of the draft?  Perhaps so - dont know/cant say. 

Perhaps with the new DC we'll get better bang for all these defensive bucks we've been spending. Thats certainly hoped for as I dont think we can continually use our high draft slots on nothing but defensive players - difference makers - and exclude the offense to "well, we think this guy will develop into something". We hit at a decent enough rate to get by - and having AR certainly helps - but...................well, I'm repeating myself now.

 

Just going by the offensive positions:

IOL are drafted effectively in the middle rounds. Third tier IOL talents can be drafted in the 4th round. That's not really true of any other position except maybe ILB and RB.

RB are drafted effectively in the middle late rounds. This is a position where production is determined by blocking far moreso than individual ability. ILB is may be the only other position this can be said for.

TE has been attacked in free agency for the Packers more than any other position. They just don't contribute right away as rookies and evaluating them is a pain in the ***.

WR: While the Packers haven't drafted any in the first round, they've certainly pounded this spot in the 2nd round. There's draft capital being spent there. 

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27 minutes ago, Leader said:

I'm not viewing it in that manner - which personally I think fairly limited in scope. LT/QB only? Effectively, we've been DONE needing to draft for those positions for years - and theoretically, will be for many more to come. So - I guess that makes our drafts easy eh?

I'm considering it from a player perspective - not position - and that eventually there has to come some (offensive) player that can be slotted in and kick *** from the get go. Other teams seem capable of finding these guys.....are they all bottom feeders who feed at the top of the draft?  Perhaps so - dont know/cant say. 

Perhaps with the new DC we'll get better bang for all these defensive bucks we've been spending. Thats certainly hoped for as I dont think we can continually use our high draft slots on nothing but defensive players - difference makers - and exclude the offense to "well, we think this guy will develop into something". We hit at a decent enough rate to get by - and having AR certainly helps - but...................well, I'm repeating myself now.

I mean, how much impact is Calvin Ridley/DJ Moore going to have on the '18 Packers roster?  How about Hayden Hurst?  Or how about Will Hernandez?  Every single one of those players has significantly less impact than Jaire Alexander will have on the '18 roster and that's assuming you had them in the same tier.  There's only a handful of positions that you'd say are high impact positions (i.e. EDGE, pressure IDL, QB, LT, CB), then you get into that second tier and you're getting into the guys who can impact but probably won't.  Finally, you've got the guys who you only notice if they screw up.  There's no possible logic that can justify taking a similarly graded WR prospect as a CB prospect.  Just because the Packers aren't getting the production out of their picks doesn't mean their logic isn't sound.

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Listening to Bleacher report guy Miller, he thinks the 2019 draft will be light on WRs and RBs. It will be heavy with linemen on both the O and D. Pretty good at pass rusher as well

Austin Bryant and Clelin Ferrell (Clemson) surprisingly returned for their senior year. With Nick Bosa (Ohio St.) a likely top pick, along with other probable first rounders like Oregon's Jalen Jelks, Miami's Joe Jackson, Michigan's Rashan Gary, Alabama's Terrell Lewis. These are some of the better pass rushers that could be targets for one of the Packers 2x 1st round picks.

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6 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

Listening to Bleacher report guy Miller, he thinks the 2019 draft will be light on WRs and RBs. It will be heavy with linemen on both the O and D. Pretty good at pass rusher as well

Austin Bryant and Clelin Ferrell (Clemson) surprisingly returned for their senior year. With Nick Bosa (Ohio St.) a likely top pick, along with other probable first rounders like Oregon's Jalen Jelks, Miami's Joe Jackson, Michigan's Rashan Gary, Alabama's Terrell Lewis. These are some of the better pass rushers that could be targets for one of the Packers 2x 1st round picks.

Jelks is going to be a redshirt Senior with 8.5 sacks in three years of playing time.

Gary is a UT not an edge guy.

Lewis has two sacks in his entire college career (with this year getting cut short to injury)

Every year we pimp the pass rushing class and every year a good number of guys fall out, meanwhile a few will play in. I like this group better than the 2018 class, but the 2018 class was one of the worst in recent memory. 

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23 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

There's no possible logic that can justify taking a similarly graded WR prospect as a CB prospect.  Just because the Packers aren't getting the production out of their picks doesn't mean their logic isn't sound.

This year - no. The need at CB was glaring. If not to potentially start this year - but to lay groundwork for TW/DH to move on - but I look forward to the day when our CB hole is plugged and we can enjoy at least a slight period of buoyancy w/o needing to draft another with a 1 or 2. 

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Just now, Leader said:

This year - no. The need at CB was glaring. If not to potentially start this year - but to lay groundwork for TW/DH to move on - but I look forward to the day when our CB hole is plugged and we can enjoy at least a slight period of buoyancy w/o needing to draft another with a 1 or 2. 

Let's say next year, Wilkerson walks as a FA and Daniels/Clark are still playing well, but no WR emerges to that #3 role, do you grab another DL or a WR?

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Just now, CWood21 said:

Let's say next year, Wilkerson walks as a FA and Daniels/Clark are still playing well, but no WR emerges to that #3 role, do you grab another DL or a WR?

When those players - or potential players - present themselves, I'll have an answer for you.

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6 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Jelks is going to be a redshirt Senior with 8.5 sacks in three years of playing time.

Gary is a UT not an edge guy.

Lewis has two sacks in his entire college career (with this year getting cut short to injury)

Every year we pimp the pass rushing class and every year a good number of guys fall out, meanwhile a few will play in. I like this group better than the 2018 class, but the 2018 class was one of the worst in recent memory. 

Jennings, Jackson and Sweat will be the guys this year IMO.

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1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Gary is a UT not an edge guy.

Rashan Gary isn't a pass- rushing linebacker, but I don't see why he cannot get after the QB as a DE, at 6'5" and not that far off 300 lb.

Lewis is a big projection, but at 6'5" 250 he has measurables - I was probably too influenced by Walter's projecting him to round one pick 21.

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1 minute ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

Rashan Gary isn't a pass- rushing linebacker, but I don't see why he cannot get after the QB as a DE, at 6'5" and not that far off 300 lb.

Lewis is a big projection, but at 6'5" 250 he has measurables - I was probably too influenced by Walter's projecting him to round one pick 21.

Great player, but he's not going to be a full time edge guy. Daniels has the UT role locked down. 

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32 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Great player, but he's not going to be a full time edge guy. Daniels has the UT role locked down. 

I could see Gary taking over for Wilkerson if we let him walk. He’ll have to prove he can stack the run but he looks more athletic although a little lighter. 

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59 minutes ago, MantyWrestler said:

I could see Gary taking over for Wilkerson if we let him walk. He’ll have to prove he can stack the run but he looks more athletic although a little lighter. 

Sure, but neither are a traditional 1-tech and we're not going to be playing 3DL more than 50% of snaps. 

Maybe you let Clay walk, move Perry over to the Will backer and stick Gary into the Rush "Backer" spot ala Mario Williams, but that's not a pure fit, and if I'm drafting top 5 like I suspect Gary is going, that fit better be pure as spring water. 

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