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CWood21

CW21's 2018 NFL Draft Review (Browns Up)

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Sony Michel is a beast.  His vision makes him almost plug and play in the NFL; the guy can read blocks and tackling angles really really really well.  The icing on the cake is his pass catching threat potential.  

 

Edelman's a problem on the field because he can run almost every route in the book.  Michel can run every ground play in the book, and block, and potentially add routes to arsenal.  All in his first year; he won't need years to get up to speed and see play time.

 

I'll double down and call 1,000 yards on the ground for Michel next season :D

 

 

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On 5/13/2018 at 3:40 PM, Broncofan said:

If Lamar is league average for 3/5 years (his first full year of starting I don’t ever expect that) - win for value.  If he’s better or does it for longer then the greater the gain.  

If Lamar isn’t a league average QB then it’s a loss.  How badly he fails increase the loss.  

Liked for pretty much nailing what expected return would be. I have higher hopes obviously, but it doesn't take many years of starter level QB play to justify the cost. Alex Smith at age 34 getting traded for a promising young cornerback and a 3rd isn't that far off from what Jackson cost, depending on how you view Fuller. The ceiling for that trade is 3-5 years of slightly over average QB play. And then you have to account for the $84 million dollar difference in salary for Smith and Jackson over the next 4 years. Smith got 4/$94M and Jackson's rookie contract will be under $10M for 4 years and will have a relatively cheap 5th year option if they want it.

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On 13/05/2018 at 9:09 PM, CWood21 said:

I’ve watched a lot of Bentley and Sam since we drafted them. My conclusions are that Bentley is an excellent throwback downhill run defender who is particularly good at taking on blockers. Sam is more well rounded, but generally underwhelming in most aspects. I have higher hopes for the former, but I have my doubts either will improve an already underperforming unit.

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Tampa-Bay-Buccaneers-3D-Foam-Clock-450x4

1(12) - Vita Vea [DT; Washington]
2(38) - Ronald Jones [RB; USC]
2(53) - M.J. Stewart [CB; North Carolina]
2(63) - Carlton Davis [CB; Auburn]
3(94) - Alex Cappa [OT; Humbold State]
4(117) - Jordan Whitehead [S; Pittsburgh]
5(144) - Justin Watson [WR; Penn]
6(202) - Jack Cichy [LB; Wisconsin]

Much like @goldfishwars said, for a team that had a QB in place, the Buccaneers did a great job extracting trade value from a team in search of their franchise QB.  When the Buccaneers were in the weeks leading up to the draft, they had no idea or expectation that a potential franchise QB, let alone two of them would be available when they selected.  Given their investment in Jameis Winston, they were unlikely to select one.  And when the clock for the Buccaneers started, they saw both Josh Allen and Josh Rosen available.  While the package the Bucs received didn't include the Bills second 1st round pick or a future first round pick, it included what was essentially an extra 2nd round pick in value.  Unlike the teams picking directly before them, the Buccaneers weren't wed to any one draft pick and instead took value of the trade and move down five spots.  At 12, they selected Vita Vea a big defensive tackle out of Washington who was arguably the best DL this side of Bradley Chubb.  There are some concerns about whether or not he's a 3-down lineman, which if he's not able to provide pass rush from the interior really hurts the value of this pick.  Despite this, solid value on the pick although I probably would have grabbed Derwin James here instead.  They were linked to Minkah Fitzpatrick throughout the process, so you have wonder if he was available would they have taken him over Vea?  At the start of the second round, they looked to address their running game by adding Ronald Jones.  Most thought that they would take Derius Guice, but character question marks continued to push him down the board.  With the two second round picks the Buccaneers acquired from the Bills, they addressed their cornerback position with M.J. Stewart and Carlton Davis.  Both are more of a man up corner, and have enough question about their ball skills.  I think Stewart projects a bit better in the slot, where his ability to sift through traffic seems to fit in well.  I liked Carlton Davis quite a bit, but he's going to have to play in a man press coverage scheme.  He's got solid fundamentals, but needs to clean up his technique a bit more.  I like the choice of Alex Cappa, who was a bit of a late riser during the draft process.  I'm not sure if he's a natural fit at guard or tackle at this point, and the Bucs probably don't know either so they'll probably give him reps at both positions and see which one he takes to.  I do believe that if Quenton Nelson was on the board at 7, they would have quickly turned in the card but given that he wasn't available this isn't a bad consolation prize.  It wasn't a real great safety class, especially at the top outside of Derwin James but getting Jordan Whitehead in the 4th round provides value and can add more value to special teams than immediately.  After that, they added more depth in the form of Justin Watson and Jack Cichy.  The Bucs are clearly hoping they found another Cooper Kupp as an overlooked WR who fell in the draft due to a perceived lack of upside.  If Jack Cichy had managed to stay healthy over his career at Wisconsin, we're probably talking about a Day 2 pick at worst but with his injury history he tumbled far down the draft.  He's not a great athlete at the LB position, but makes up for it with great instincts.  Overall, Bucs fans should feel pretty happy with this draft.  I don't think the draft has a ton of upside in itself, but I think it's a got a good combination of value and players that fits needs.

Best Value Pick: Carlton Davis [CB; Auburn]
Worst Value Pick: Ronald Jones [RB; USC}
Grade: B+

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On 5/13/2018 at 3:52 PM, Broncofan said:

If NE uses Michel just as a piece to that RB puzzle it’s pretty bad value though esp compared to the non-RB who were there.  

If BB wants to use Michel as the alpha in that group (60+ percent between the 20’s and the big RZ weapon) then it’s justifiable given the major difference in $ the 31 pick makes compared to top 10 guys.   I mentioned this in another Forum but it’s basically a 4 year 9.75M deal with an option that’s not guaranteed for around 5.6M for the 5th year (subject to cap top 10 RB inflation).   It’s not bad for a complementary RB but there’s very little gain in value vs.  getting a good (or better) CB / OL / DL.  But if they have bigger things in mind than just a complementary role the value starts to become justifiable.    Given BB & co. are well aware of this it wouldn’t surprise me to see them using Michel by 2019 in a more dominant role than we’ve come to expect.   

That's my issue.  Since 2010, the Patriots have only had a 1000 yard rusher twice.  If they're using him as part of a system, I don't find anyway you can justify that pick.  If you're using him as a threat to score everytime he touches, it becomes a bit easier to swallow.  But Georgia didn't really utilize him as a receiver out of the backfield last year.

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2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

That's my issue.  Since 2010, the Patriots have only had a 1000 yard rusher twice.  If they're using him as part of a system, I don't find anyway you can justify that pick.  If you're using him as a threat to score everytime he touches, it becomes a bit easier to swallow.  But Georgia didn't really utilize him as a receiver out of the backfield last year.

Yeah even if he's a 2-down thumper it's iffy.   The 3-down back, though, and you can definitely make the argument.    I do think he has the skill set, as he's been used in that capacity in prior years (and you see it in the film, he actually catches passes by making adjustments and he catches them in space, not just as a dumpoff with his back to the LOS.   Those aren't real pass-catching difference-making skills, it's catching it in space and hitting top gear right away, not just getting the dumpoff, and then turning around, and looking for yardage).     

If we go strictly off past history, it's really iffy.   Then again, this is literally their first top 50 pick on a RB since Maroney in 2006, and only 1x did they even spend a 2nd round pick.   So it's fair to say they must view him as a special talent to do this - the Q is whether they will use him as a workhorse to justify the draft capital spent.

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Agreed on Vea. I think he will be a good player just not sure how good or his ceiling. What they asked him to do at Washington was extreme. Guy was eating 2-3 blocks consistently and still making the play. Its hard to project how good he will be. He’s familar with one gap and two gap scheme so play recognition won’t be a problem. Just looking forward to see him in a 4-3 next to another great DT talent in McCoy. Especially on third downs.

 

Cappa will probably play RT in a couple of years. He may compete for a guard spot on the right side but ultimately think his best position is om the outside. 

 

Jones, Stewart, and Davis should all be day 1 contributors.

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I think Rojo was probably the pick, even without Guice's character concerns. Koetter always preaches explosives and Rojo is a threat for one every time he touches the ball. His speed and explosion are two things we haven't had in the backfield in a decade plus.

I'm still not super excited about the Vea pick. But I get it. We made it a point to get bigger and tougher in the trenches this year. And we did that and then some. I think one of James/Fitz would have been the pick if we stayed at seven. Licht has a history of drafting for need and both guys would have been instant starters.

Bounce is really our only good CB. VHIII has struggled quite a bit. He was solid in the slot last year but couldn't stay healthy once we figured that out. Stewart pushes for starting in the slot and Davis pushes to start on the outside. It's put up or shut up for Hargreaves this year. I think we're gonna give him another shot on the outside, but comments from coaching make it sound like he's (disappointingly) a slot guy. Ryan Smith really struggled last year too and probably needs another year of practice and reps before he gets another shot to start. We tried to convert him to safety his rookie year, so he spent most of last year trying to figure things out on the fly. He flashed from time to time. But he also looked lost sometimes.

Cappa is gonna cross train at center, RG, and RT. But I think he's gonna be the successor to Dotson at RT. We're really high on Benenoch and he's gonna compete for starting at RG this year. It sounds like Sweezy is all but gone if he ever gets healthy again.

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2 hours ago, bucsfan333 said:

I'm still not super excited about the Vea pick. But I get it. We made it a point to get bigger and tougher in the trenches this year. And we did that and then some. I think one of James/Fitz would have been the pick if we stayed at seven. Licht has a history of drafting for need and both guys would have been instant starters.

I agree that Fitz probably would have been the pick if the Bucs stayed at 7, but how in the world would James have been the pick at 7 if you didn't even draft him when he was on the board at 12?  I wish you had.  I wanted Vea over Payne, even though Payne is two years younger and theoretically has more upside.  

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1 minute ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

I agree that Fitz probably would have been the pick if the Bucs stayed at 7, but how in the world would James have been the pick at 7 if you didn't even draft him when he was on the board at 12?  I wish you had.  I wanted Vea over Payne, even though Payne is two years younger and theoretically has more upside.  

We had the flexibility after trading back to go BPA. I don't think we'd have done that if we didn't get those extra picks.

Before the draft, we had a first and second round pick. And we were missing our third. That was it. After we traded pick seven, we had a first and three seconds. After trading back with our third second round pick, we were able to move up into the third for Cappa, and still have three day three picks.

I think we sit still and draft need without all the draft capital we accrued.

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2 minutes ago, bucsfan333 said:

We had the flexibility after trading back to go BPA. I don't think we'd have done that if we didn't get those extra picks.

Before the draft, we had a first and second round pick. And we were missing our third. That was it. After we traded pick seven, we had a first and three seconds. After trading back with our third second round pick, we were able to move up into the third for Cappa, and still have three day three picks.

I think we sit still and draft need without all the draft capital we accrued.

I would agree with this, and you know your team and GM much better than I do, but if that was the case, why would they wait until the 4th round to grab a safety?  4th round picks are far from a guaranteed hit.  If they were that willing to reach for James at 7 over Vea, who they clearly consider the better player of the two, why wait until the 4th to address their seemingly dire need at safety (if they were willing to reach for an inferior player in James over Vea at 7, I'd consider the need at S to be pretty dire)?

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, CWood21 said:

That's my issue.  Since 2010, the Patriots have only had a 1000 yard rusher twice.  If they're using him as part of a system, I don't find anyway you can justify that pick.  If you're using him as a threat to score everytime he touches, it becomes a bit easier to swallow.  But Georgia didn't really utilize him as a receiver out of the backfield last year.

 

I posted this elsewhere about Michel, but it seems relevant here, as well:

Although New England tends toward a committee, they've also given plenty of touches to lead backs when they have the personnel for it. Their last 1000 yard rushers: Blount had 299 carries in 2016, Ridley had 290 in 2012, BJGE had 230 in 2010, etc. To be fair, you have to go back to Dillon in 04 for a 345 carry performance, but I don't think it's out of the question that they'll feed Michel after spending a 1st on him. Maroney only had 175 carries his rookie year because Dillon still got 200 carries, but right now the Patriots have White (3rd down back), Gilislee, and Burkhead. I don't see any reason why 200 - 250 carries is out of the question.

Also, Lewis got single-digit rushing attempts for the first five weeks of the season (only 19 total for some reason). For the last 11 games, he averaged almost 15 carries a game instead. In total he still had 900 yards on 180 carries. It's not unreasonable at all to suggest that he would have been another 1000+ yard rusher if he had been given more carries over the first 5 games. He still had 32 receptions, too, despite sharing catches with White (56 receptions) and Burkhead (30 receptions).  Michel is primed to take the Lewis role, and should see a fairly heavy workload, even though the Patriots will still likely take a RBBC approach. 

Edited by reamer

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43 minutes ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

I would agree with this, and you know your team and GM much better than I do, but if that was the case, why would they wait until the 4th round to grab a safety?  4th round picks are far from a guaranteed hit.  If they were that willing to reach for James at 7 over Vea, who they clearly consider the better player of the two, why wait until the 4th to address their seemingly dire need at safety (if they were willing to reach for an inferior player in James over Vea at 7, I'd consider the need at S to be pretty dire)?

That's a question a lot of us have. Right now we're looking at pretty much the same rotation at safety as we had last year.

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On 5/15/2018 at 1:52 PM, bucsfan333 said:

That's a question a lot of us have. Right now we're looking at pretty much the same rotation at safety as we had last year.

Supposedly they said they had Vea rated higher than James right??...  which is probably jus draft talk because i think the whole state of florida and draft viewers thought the Bucs were going to take James.  only time will tell if they made the right choice.

 

The only thing I can see is Vea having a higher floor than James at his respective position. 

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