CW21's 2018 NFL Draft Review (Browns Up)

[CWood21]

3 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

@CWood21 - I mentioned this in the other thread - but much respect for doing such an in-depth breakdown.   Although I still find it hard to argue with your takes in the OP.   

But back to serious discussion - with your grades in, are you going to amalgamate and rank the teams by tier through the grade?   Or are you already doing that (just behind the scenes).   For all the discussion about grades, like I said in the other thread that ranked from 1-32, its probably more important to see how tiers are arranged.    Now, you've got that covered with the overall grade, but it's also a nice internal check for consistency, because if all the teams with the same grade were in the same tier, you're all good.   

If you're already doing it, all good.  Might want to consider summarizing the tiers at the end, if you're doing it a different way.  Then you'd know that your gut feel wasn't influenced by doing a team 1st or 32nd in order.    Either way, though, much respect - I don't know if ppl realize just how much work these in-depth analyses are, especially those that breakdown with reasoning and rationale.   That's a ton of work, much respect.

At the end, I'll probably have grades linked into tier-by-tier breakdowns.  As for the internal check for consistency, I think waiting to do evaluations of the draft tends to let feeling settle and you're not going to get too high or too low on selections.  You tend to be more evenly keeled when evaluating when there's less emotions.  For the most part, you've got 4-5 teams who you think really nailed their draft, 4-5 teams who blew it, and then everyone is bunched together.  As I've mentioned, I don't give anyone F grades unless you literally trade your draft away and I don't hand out A+ draft grades.  I rarely hand out A grades, so A- is probably the highest realistic grade anyone is going to get.  IF anyone even gets that. Likewise, I probably won't hand out very many D- grades and probably a few D grades.  Even if I don't like you're draft, you're probably still going to get a D+ grade.  A- to D+ is probably a more realistic grading scale.

I don't anticipate going back and adjusting but if there's a team that I feel I overjudged, I'll update the rankings.  But for the most part, I think I've got a pretty good feel as to where they draft.  And if there is a correction, it's moving it a tick or two at most.  Not something that's going to take someone from a C- grade to a B- grade.

[CWood21]

2 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Yea, I think Okoronkwo will play. Kiser might as well. He'll battle with Littleton. I don't see anyone else playing on offense or defense unless they're replacing an injured player.

I guess I view Kiser as more of a ST player at least during his rookie year.  Maybe he cracks into the rotation later in the year.

2 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Huh? That's basically exactly what he is. All of the guys you named were considered athletic, toolsy-type players. Franklin-Myers tested better than Chad Thomas and Breeland Speaks. He put up quality agility numbers for his size and posted a 4.75 40 at 283 pounds.

I'd make the argument that all of those guys were positional tweeners.  Maybe less so with DaQuan Bowers, but Ballard and Jones were both very much positional tweeners.  Datone Jones wasn't stout enough to play inside in a 43 or as a 34 DE, and he wasn't athletic enough to play on the EDGE.  Hell, Green Bay had to move him to OLB because they had no numbers at that position, and he was still bad there.  He was a situational pass rusher at his highest value, and he wasn't even very good at that with his boneheaded penalties.  Just across the board, Franklin-Myers was an average athlete.  Franklin-Myers has better agility numbers than Speaks, but the LoC difference is also a question for Speaks.  I wasn't a huge fan of Speaks fwiw.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

At the end, I'll probably have grades linked into tier-by-tier breakdowns.  As for the internal check for consistency, I think waiting to do evaluations of the draft tends to let feeling settle and you're not going to get too high or too low on selections.  You tend to be more evenly keeled when evaluating when there's less emotions.  For the most part, you've got 4-5 teams who you think really nailed their draft, 4-5 teams who blew it, and then everyone is bunched together.  As I've mentioned, I don't give anyone F grades unless you literally trade your draft away and I don't hand out A+ draft grades.  I rarely hand out A grades, so A- is probably the highest realistic grade anyone is going to get.  IF anyone even gets that. Likewise, I probably won't hand out very many D- grades and probably a few D grades.  Even if I don't like you're draft, you're probably still going to get a D+ grade.  A- to D+ is probably a more realistic grading scale.

I don't anticipate going back and adjusting but if there's a team that I feel I overjudged, I'll update the rankings.  But for the most part, I think I've got a pretty good feel as to where they draft.  And if there is a correction, it's moving it a tick or two at most.  Not something that's going to take someone from a C- grade to a B- grade.

It sounds by your description that you're probably already tiering, even if it's by feel.   All good, figured it was worth mentioning, especially as I've found grading at the beginning and end of a cohort, I certainly can see biases with doing it early/late.

[jrry32]

15 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I guess I view Kiser as more of a ST player at least during his rookie year.  Maybe he cracks into the rotation later in the year.

I'd make the argument that all of those guys were positional tweeners.  Maybe less so with DaQuan Bowers, but Ballard and Jones were both very much positional tweeners.  Datone Jones wasn't stout enough to play inside in a 43 or as a 34 DE, and he wasn't athletic enough to play on the EDGE.  Hell, Green Bay had to move him to OLB because they had no numbers at that position, and he was still bad there.  He was a situational pass rusher at his highest value, and he wasn't even very good at that with his boneheaded penalties.  Just across the board, Franklin-Myers was an average athlete.  Franklin-Myers has better agility numbers than Speaks, but the LoC difference is also a question for Speaks.  I wasn't a huge fan of Speaks fwiw.

Wade Phillips runs a very different scheme than Dom Capers. Datone Jones wouldn't have had an issue as Wade's SDE.

[CWood21]

3 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Wade Phillips runs a very different scheme than Dom Capers. Datone Jones wouldn't have had an issue as Wade's SDE.

Datone Jones can NOT hold up against the run in any 34 defense.  He simply is incapable of putting on and keeping on weight.  The Packers projected him to do, but there was no way he could play at 295+.

[jrry32]

Just now, CWood21 said:

Datone Jones can NOT hold up against the run in any 34 defense.  He simply is incapable of putting on and keeping on weight.  The Packers projected him to do, but there was no way he could play at 295+.

You don't need to be 295+ pounds to play DE in Wade's defense. Antonio Smith is a great example of that. 

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, jrry32 said:

You don't need to be 295+ pounds to play DE in Wade's defense. Antonio Smith is a great example of that. 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Brockers is 300+ and Aaron Donald is sub-290.  Datone Jones isn't Aaron Donald needless to say.  So because Donald can play end in a 34 doesn't mean that Jones can.  Jones was legitimately only a 34 DE coming out of college, some thought he might have been able to play SDE in a 43 but that was probably a bit of a stretch.  I believe Jay Ratliff made a career out of being a 300 lb NT, but I wouldn't make the argument that 300 NT are the way to go.  Jones was drafted based largely on the projection that he was able to add weight.  He wasn't able to.  I'm pretty sure Datone Jones played most of his career in that 275-285 range.  That's rather light for a 34 DE.

[jrry32]

Just now, CWood21 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Brockers is 300+ and Aaron Donald is sub-290.  Datone Jones isn't Aaron Donald needless to say.  So because Donald can play end in a 34 doesn't mean that Jones can.  Jones was legitimately only a 34 DE coming out of college, some thought he might have been able to play SDE in a 43 but that was probably a bit of a stretch.  I believe Jay Ratliff made a career out of being a 300 lb NT, but I wouldn't make the argument that 300 NT are the way to go.  Jones was drafted based largely on the projection that he was able to add weight.  He wasn't able to.  I'm pretty sure Datone Jones played most of his career in that 275-285 range.  That's rather light for a 34 DE.

So you're just going to ignore the name I gave you? Wade's 3-4 doesn't operate like other 3-4s. He's had a number of small NTs, including Ethan Westbrooks last year. He's used many small 3-4 DEs. His scheme is about penetration and disruption, not holding blocks.

[Broncofan]

18 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

 Wade's 3-4 doesn't operate like other 3-4s. He's had a number of small NTs, including Ethan Westbrooks last year. He's used many small 3-4 DEs. His scheme is about penetration and disruption, not holding blocks.

It's fair to say that, although as with every scheme, how Datone Jones fits into Wade's 3-4 still comes into question.

This article probably gives the best summary on the Wade Phillips 3-4 - and the fact that it can operate with a smaller NT - it's the ability to attack and operate in a 1-gap scheme that is more the key.   When they can't, then the NT becomes more of a space-occupying classic 0-tech who reads & reacts to both gaps around him (Pot Roast aka Terrance Knighton).   When they are capable of attacking and disrupting, they are given a 1-gap role.   So you can fit either.   

For a guy like Suh, they'll let him be a 1-gap disruptor if he has that still in his arsenal (certainly did in 2016).  If he's winded, then he falls back to the read-and-reach 2-gap space occupyer.     For Jones, if he doesn't have that 1-on-1 ability to win still left, then his lack of size becomes a problem.  If he can win vs. the OL ahead of him, the 1-gap scheme will mitigate the size difference he has from a classic 0-tech.

https://www.denverpost.com/2016/02/07/for-wade-phillips-broncos-3-4-defense-and-one-gap-equals-dominance/

[jrry32]

3 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

It's fair to say that, although as with every scheme, how Datone Jones fits into Wade's 3-4 still comes into question.

This article probably gives the best summary on the Wade Phillips 3-4 - and the fact that it can operate with a smaller NT - it's the ability to attack and operate in a 1-gap scheme that is more the key.   When they can't, then the NT becomes more of a space-occupying classic 0-tech who reads & reacts to both gaps around him (Pot Roast aka Terrance Knighton).   When they are capable of attacking and disrupting, they are given a 1-gap role.   So you can fit either.   

For a guy like Suh, they'll let him be a 1-gap disruptor if he has that still in his arsenal (certainly did in 2016).   If Jones doesn't have that ability, then his lack of size becomes a problem.  If he can win vs. the OL ahead of him, the 1-gap scheme will mitigate the size difference he has from a classic 0-tech.

https://www.denverpost.com/2016/02/07/for-wade-phillips-broncos-3-4-defense-and-one-gap-equals-dominance/

Jones wouldn't be playing NT. He'd be playing SDE as the 4/5-Tech. But Jones isn't the point here. It's John Franklin-Myers, who is a good fit for what the scheme wants.

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, jrry32 said:

Jones wouldn't be playing NT. He'd be playing SDE as the 4/5-Tech. But Jones isn't the point here. It's John Franklin-Myers, who is a good fit for what the scheme wants.

Don't confuse me with the facts of the actual discussion.  Come on!

(OK, got it lol)

[TitanLegend]

A B is probably what I'd assign the Titans as well. The lack of picks really is what keeps it from being any higher. Evans and Landry fill our two biggest holes on the roster so you can't argue much with that, and Evans brings some much needed athleticism as the guy he replaces(Avery Williamson), while incredible at stopping the run, was nearly useless in other facets of the game. He'll fill the spot next to Woodyard well I think and will continue to let Jayon Brown develop/stick to his nickel LB role for the time being.

For Landry, behind Orakpo and Morgan we had nothing at edge rusher, so getting a talent like Landry in the 2nd round is fantastic. Both Morgan and Orakpo are heading in to the final years of their deals as well(I expect at the very least Morgan will be resigned for a couple seasons though, hell Orakpo might be back too, he hasn't really shown any signs of slowing down just yet), so for both depth now and for starting in the future this pick was a must I think.

Cruikshank is interesting, I think your analysis is pretty spot on. One of the best athletes in the secondary in the draft I think. You don't often find guys his size(6'1, 210ish) with his speed(4.41 40), so the physical talent is there to mold for Kerry Coombs, and behind Byard and Cyprien(just signed Kendrick Lewis as well who I suppose might win the 3rd safety spot) he should have time to learn. It's a low risk high reward type pick I think, but like you said there wasn't much to love about his tape in terms of technique/coverage. If it works out it looks incredible, if not, it's just a 5th round pick so not a huge deal. The last mid round pick Robinson spent on a safety worked out pretty well though(Byard).

I think the one guy we really disagree on all that much is Falk. I actually liked Falk, been a fan of his for years now(though, I must admit, I find myself liking most Air Raid QBs just cause the offense is so entertaining). He's got some issues especially when it comes to dealing with pressure, and while I agree his 2017 tape is probably his worst, his tape before that looks pretty solid overall(for a developmental/backup guy, not trying to paint him as the next great thing at QB). He's a bit of a pet project for LaFleur and O'Hara I suppose, but I'm intrigued by his potential.

So first two picks spent on guys that are going to be major contributors now(one a starter in Evans, and Landry will start sooner rather than later I'd guess, assuming they both work out obviously), last two spent on projects. I'm okay with that overall, I think Robinson has done well with the roster since taking over and we can afford some project guys in later rounds now.

[ttitansfan4life]

I thought the Titans had a very good draft despite it only having 4 picks. Titans didn’t have a lot of needs and they attacked their top 2 needs with their first 2 picks. Usually I’m pretty hesitant to give the Titans a good grade but honestly I think they had a very good draft. That has a lot to do with with landing Landry at 41 who imo is a top 20 talent. Obviously Robinson felt other teams were after Evans so he had to make the trade. It was reported the Steelers were after Evans hard. Cruikshank will be a developmental safety.  Highly doubt we see him at CB at all unless it’s in a joker type role but I expect that to be a while down the line. Maybe he takes Cyprien’s job down the line in which that would be a steal.  The Falk pick didn’t really bother me. He has his issues but his job is to develop into Mariota’s backup QB and LaFleur has done great work with QBs everywhere he’s been. Titans only had 4 picks but IMO they landed some UDFA’s that should’ve been drafted such as Wadley and Burnett. Both has a strong chance to make the roster now especially Wadley as the 3rd back.

[RuskieTitan]

Ultimately our draft class will be defined by our top two picks. If they end up as good (or better) starters, then this draft class was a success given we knew what our team needs were and we acquired the players we felt were best to address those needs. We had a significantly talent deprived roster a couple of years ago when Jon Robinson took over, and now with the success of the past few classes and free agency, we are in a position to get specifics rather than needing a vast net of draft picks. I can understand some teams can't afford to do that but when you have a relatively filled roster, it makes no sense to keep picks for the sake of having a bigger draft class. The roster is tooled for the playoffs, it's up to Vrabel and the coaches to get them there.

[RuskieTitan]

In terms of the grade I'd argue it's a B+ as we landed the two guys we felt will help our roster, so perfect from that perspective, but can't hit an A status when it's just largely two picks for the draft class.