CW21's 2018 NFL Draft Review (Browns Up)

[CWood21]

@drd23 @sp6488 @DreamKid @coordinator0 @diamondbull424 @wackywabbit @Danand @Darth Pees @Mancunian Raven @paraven @warrenblue

[CWood21]

On 5/10/2018 at 8:46 PM, stl4life07 said:

@CWood21 In general you are right about Day 2-3 picks but in the Les Snead era as GM the Rams have 3 all-pros and 2 guys who made the all rookie team grading highly on PFF. So that’s 5 guys the Rams found in Round 3 or later. I’m not even counting Tru who was drafted Round 3 who turned out to be a good corner and Mo Alexander who PFF said was the most improved safety in the NFL in 2016. He was also highly graded by PFF that year. He was a later round draft pick by the Rams. So it’s just some teams scout and draft well they can find gems more than others can later in the draft that you can’t dismiss that. 

As someone from PFF said, you can find Impact linebackers later in the draft. It’s not going up shock me if Kiser and Oboronkwo make immediate impacts in Wade scheme.

The problem is that it's not a sustainable model in the slightest.  I mean, Seattle from 2010-2012 had huge success from the 3rd round on.  They managed to draft Russell Wilson, KJ Wright, Richard Sherman, and Kam Chancellor.  Those are just the four impact guys they drafted.  Since then, their best picks in that same range have been Alex Collins, Spencer Ware, and Shaq Griffin.  Once in several years isn't a huge drain on the franchise, but dealing away first and seconds is going to hurt the franchise in the long run.

[CWood21]

14 hours ago, Ozzy said:

I agree with everything you said.  I do feel they are not super impressed with Alexander and Waynes has his moments but still needs some work.  Hughes is a great pickup and is a giant area of need I feel, especially with how that secondary looked in the playoffs.  They were one CB injury away from big trouble, when Rhodes went out they were bad and did not have guys to put into the lineup as a starter.  And Hughes helps kickoffs as well as a return man.  Sure the Holmes and Conklin pickup are just ok at that point, but they got two possible steals with Aruna and Downs.  They already showed with Hunter what that staff can do with long athletic defensive ends and Aruna is exactly that and was arguably a 3rd round talent with his workout numbers and potential.  Downs really flashes as a playmaker and would have been drafted higher without the injury, should completely take the place of Brothers soon as a backup ILB special teams guy.  

 

Not a great draft but solid, and with O'Neill he was the best option there in the 2nd round and athletically is a first round talent.  Sure guard would have worked but it is easier to find a guard than a solid athletic tackle who can pass protect I think.  People greatly underrate him as an athlete and just assume he is not strong as a blocker because he is such a impressive looking athlete.  Aviante Collins who also was a damn good athlete at OT to potentially develop from last years draft as a UDFA.  With O'Neill and Collins both are top 4 in the past 12 years for offensive lineman and their 40 time at the combine, only Lane Johnson and Terron Armstead have better times at the combine in that time span.

 

Not to mention the 2018 Vikings UDFA group is arguably as good as any other team.  So the early part of the draft this year and the end of it, combined with the UDFA saved the average selections of Holmes, Conklin and Carlson but Carlson was a need so it had to be done just for extra points alone.  But sure if one is just looking at top to bottom they did not make wow picks with every selection.  

I mean, I was never a huge Alexander fan and I viewed him as a slot-only CB.  I don't think he's done anything to suggest that the Vikings will attempt to re-sign him when his contract expires.  But if the Vikings aren't planning on re-signing Trae Waynes, then that's another whiff of a pick.  I'm just not sure that Hughes is this "CB savior" that I think some Vikings fans feel he is.  But I don't agree that they're one CB injury away from being in trouble.  Maybe not a position of strength anymore, but still a solid CB group.

As for O'Neill his upside far exceeds his floor, and I think he's too big of a project to really count on making an impact.  Add on the Vikings' history of developing OL, and if they get even league-average play from O'Neill that's a HUGE win for the Vikings.  I just don't think that's going to happen.

[CWood21]

6 hours ago, rpmwr19 said:

CWood, you mention Conklin’s bloodlines... what are you referring to? His younger brother is a transfer walk on at CMU. As far as I know, he’s got no football bloodline other than that...

 

are you referring to Jack? What am I missing here?

You're right.  For some reason, I was thinking of someone else.

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Is the order you're doing these in random?

Yep.  Using a random team generator to decide who I write up.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

16 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Yep.  Using a random team generator to decide who I write up.

Sounds good. Loving whats up so far

[wackywabbit]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

In what would become Ozzie Newsome's last draft before he retired, nobody especially Ravens' fans anticipated it being this exciting.  Armed with the 16th pick in the draft, the Ravens had a slew of good players left on the board but opted to move down 5 slots swapping a 5th round pick for a 3rd round pick in the process.  Baltimore moved down another 3 spots upgrading a sixth round pick into another fourth round pick.  This kind of maneuvering might not endear itself to fans, but Day 2 of the draft is when teams really make their mark.  That being said, when the Ravens finally selected 25th overall they took Hayden Hurst out of South Carolina.  Quite frankly, I wasn't a huge fan of Hurst because I didn't project him to be an impact TE and I don't buy the idea of taking a TE in the first round when the position doesn't lend itself to being a high impact position.  Overall, I think his combination of upside and floor is probably the best of the TE class.  Probably a tad higher than I'd want to draft Hurst, but given the value they received via trade downs and getting Hurst at 25 instead of 18 makes this pick better in my eyes.  After moving down twice, the Ravens were poised to move back up the board which they did when they dealt #52, #125, and their '19 2nd round pick to Philadelphia for the 32nd overall pick.  That values that future pick as roughly a mid-3rd round pick, which is solid value.  The problem is I'm not a fan of Lamar Jackson, at all.  So the idea of trading up for Lamar Jackson using a future pick is a questionable decision, one in which Ozzie won't be around to deal with.  I have no problems with a team looking for their QBOTF, but I really don't see Lamar Jackson being that unless he's Michael Vick all over again.  I the third round, the Ravens drafted a pair of Sooners first grabbing Orlando Brown.  Orlando Brown is the son of former Raven, Zeus Brown, which makes a great story in itself.  His tape from his last year in Oklahoma was as strong as any OL prospect in this year's draft, but a miserable Combine process dropped his stock to the point where he went from being a potential Day 1 pick to possibly sliding into Day 3.  They grabbed another TE shortly after the Brown selection, grabbing Mark Andrews.  Andrews probably is the better receiving option between he and Hurst, but he's a near unknown in terms of in-line blocking and is a worse blocker in general.  Quite frankly, I think Andrews in the 3rd was better value than Hurst in the 1st.  Kenny Young was an interesting grab in the fourth to add to their LB corps.  He's got the athleticism to play at the next level, but the instincts are lacking and probably would come back to hurt them.  And to no surprise, Ozzie grabbed another Alabama player this year adding Anthony Averett to their roster.  While I don't think Averett offers a ton of upside, I think he'll offer solid depth in the secondary.  The Ravens grabbed a pair of receivers in Jaleel Scott and Jordan Lasley to add more depth to their WR corps, and should compete for a future with Lamar Jackson.  They grabbed more quality depth in the sixth with the selections of DeShon Elliot and Greg Senat.  Elliot has some questions in coverage, which might lead him into more of a S/LB hybrid role.  Senat seems like a solid developmental OL type, but counting on anything him this year seems unreasonable at best.  Again, Ozzie grabbed another Alabama player with Bradley Bozeman and should add a solid backup C to the roster.  Zach Sieler really wasn't much on my radar.  Overall, I loved the Ravens plan in the draft but their execution was lacking.  I'm not sure there's going to be many teams where I preferred their Day 3 picks to their Day 1 and 2 picks.  Overall, the Ravens targeted their needs and addressed them as such.  But this is a bit of a bag of mixed feelings for me in terms of player evaluation.

Best Value Pick: Mark Andrews [TE; Oklahoma]
Worst Value Pick: Lamar Jackson [QB; Louisville]
Grade: C-

I have Lamar Jackson as the best value pick in the entire draft. They also got the 132nd pick back No better ratio of (my predicted) return and investment. Hence an A+ draft for me. Also, Ozzie isn't retiring he's moving to a different less prominent role in the FO. Also, DeCosta was totally onboard with the Jackson pick, in fact he's the one who started the conversation in the draft room about trading back into the end of the first. The difference in opinion is going to be in how you view Jackson, but the real beauty of the Ravens draft is that it's NOT anchored to one pick. If Jackson is the game changer I believe, then the draft is automatically amazing. If Jackson ends up being a package player, then he can still add as much value as a starter-level player at a different position. If Jackson is a total bust, then there is still a near full draft of picks to play out. This is not like say the Jets, who gave up a fortune for Darnold, which is fine if he is the franchise guys, but if he's not...

Ozzie and DeCosta had a clear approach of maximizing value. DeCosta gave a great interview on a podcast with the team's website guys. The trade backs in the first were because they felt the value of this draft was in the 3-4 round range, and that maximizing swings was better than taking Derwin James, who he said they would have taken at 16. He also said that part of the arithmetic of choosing between Hurst and Ridley was the historical returns of first round tight ends vs first round wide receivers. It was all very calculated. I was very down on the Hurst pick when it happened, but I've warmed up to it after understanding the logic behind it. We badly needed TE's more than any other spot, but they maneuvered in a way not to reach.

The biggest complaint I had about the draft was that they didn't draft a RB. Would have liked them to take a shot in round 4 when they took defenders walking into crowded competitions.

[Ozzy]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

I mean, I was never a huge Alexander fan and I viewed him as a slot-only CB.  I don't think he's done anything to suggest that the Vikings will attempt to re-sign him when his contract expires.  But if the Vikings aren't planning on re-signing Trae Waynes, then that's another whiff of a pick.  I'm just not sure that Hughes is this "CB savior" that I think some Vikings fans feel he is.  But I don't agree that they're one CB injury away from being in trouble.  Maybe not a position of strength anymore, but still a solid CB group.

As for O'Neill his upside far exceeds his floor, and I think he's too big of a project to really count on making an impact.  Add on the Vikings' history of developing OL, and if they get even league-average play from O'Neill that's a HUGE win for the Vikings.  I just don't think that's going to happen.

So the Vikings cannot develop offensive lineman?  John Sullivan was a solid developed OL for the Vikings and was All Pro named at one point, now starting on the Rams.  Brandon Fusco the Vikings drafted and he is a decent guard in the league now, Phil Loadholt was a damn good player before all the injuries, Joe Berger's best years were in Minnesota, Mike Harris arguably had his best years in Minnesota as well, same could be said for Charlie Johnson.  Not to mention Nick Easton who obviously has had his best years in Minnesota as well and is currently still on the team.  So they have developed some late round guys or brought guys other teams did not want in and they played well or to their max potential.  So it is not like it is impossible for the Vikings to develop offensive lineman.

Sure Willie Beavers recently was a miss but his career is not yet over, will see, and David Yankey had promise but also so far has not done much in the league and is still around.  TJ Clemmings as well but was not some high 1st rounder or something.  Matt Kalil was the biggest whiff recently but was a Pro Bowler early in his career, not quite sure what has happened to him.  Then again not like they draft offensive lineman and spend high 1st round picks on them all that often outside of Kalil, they have taken an offensive lineman in the 1st round twice in twenty years being Kalil and Bryant McKinnie.  

 

The OL transformation from this past year and two years ago is huge, they got rid of TJ Clemmings, Andre Smith, Matt Kalil and Alex Boone and were greatly better for it and a much improved unit with Reiff, Easton, Eflein, Joe Berger, Remmers.  Would not think that would work but it did, sure Berger is retired and they had injuries to that group this past year but it was an fine improvement and I would assume more improvement from them this year as well.  Still like it has been said I think, Remmers is probably moving to guard, and if that is the case O'Neill will play at tackle this year I feel or if he does not that means Compton took over that guard spot or Isidora did and Remmers stayed at tackle.  Still with O'Neill they are far better off with him there than having only two real tackles on the roster in Reiff and Hill and was a good value where they got him in the 2nd round.  They needed a CB and OL help and they got that late in both rounds and could arguably not have gotten a better player at either of those picks at those exact positions.

 

As for CB, well yeah they would be in huge trouble if Rhodes goes down and they are only left with Waynes and Alexander as the starters, Newman I do not feel can start at his age, sure can play some slot and maybe safety if need but but at corner based on late last year in the playoffs, he was taken huge advantage of big time.  Hughes helps in the slot, and could also start out wide if asked, and not I do not think they will give up on Waynes or Alexander but one can never have too many corners I feel.  It was an issue in the last two games the Vikings played and they possibly solved that issue.  Sure maybe they drafted Hughes to not have to sign Waynes down the road but regardless they are both on the team now and are both potentially good players, Waynes was greatly improved last year I thought and has progressed well.  Alexander still needs to make more plays but is better than Sherels at nickle who they also resigned.  

 

So for what they needed they did well on those first two picks and where they got them.  Sure the middle of the draft one can have more issues with those picks.  Sure getting James Daniels or Hernandez would have been ok in the 1st but instead you got one of the best corners in the draft by far who fits a big need in the slot and in the return game.  Then late in the second they do get that OL help they needed in a guy who I feel had 1st round potential especially considering how big and athletic he is.  Will see what happens.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CWood21]

17 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

I have Lamar Jackson as the best value pick in the entire draft. They also got the 132nd pick back No better ratio of (my predicted) return and investment. Hence an A+ draft for me. Also, Ozzie isn't retiring he's moving to a different less prominent role in the FO. Also, DeCosta was totally onboard with the Jackson pick, in fact he's the one who started the conversation in the draft room about trading back into the end of the first. The difference in opinion is going to be in how you view Jackson, but the real beauty of the Ravens draft is that it's NOT anchored to one pick. If Jackson is the game changer I believe, then the draft is automatically amazing. If Jackson ends up being a package player, then he can still add as much value as a starter-level player at a different position. If Jackson is a total bust, then there is still a near full draft of picks to play out. This is not like say the Jets, who gave up a fortune for Darnold, which is fine if he is the franchise guys, but if he's not...

Ozzie and DeCosta had a clear approach of maximizing value. DeCosta gave a great interview on a podcast with the team's website guys. The trade backs in the first were because they felt the value of this draft was in the 3-4 round range, and that maximizing swings was better than taking Derwin James, who he said they would have taken at 16. He also said that part of the arithmetic of choosing between Hurst and Ridley was the historical returns of first round tight ends vs first round wide receivers. It was all very calculated. I was very down on the Hurst pick when it happened, but I've warmed up to it after understanding the logic behind it. We badly needed TE's more than any other spot, but they maneuvered in a way not to reach.

The biggest complaint I had about the draft was that they didn't draft a RB. Would have liked them to take a shot in round 4 when they took defenders walking into crowded competitions.

And I think that's where the biggest discrepancies are going to lie, your evaluation of Lamar Jackson.  If you view Lamar Jackson as a legitimate QB prospect, than you're going to like this draft.  If you're like me and don't view him as a legitimate QB prospect, you're probably not going to hate it.  Add on that I didn't like the value on the Hurst selection, and they're first two picks were whiffs for me.  The problem for me is that we've seen a flurry of these athletes at QBs, and they all tend to have a pretty short shelf life before the NFL figures them out.  I mean, when was the last time we had a "run first" QB have sustained success in the NFL over an extended period?  I think you'd have to go back to Michael Vick to find that kind of level of success over an extended period.  RG3 was great as a rookie and then got injured and fell off the face of the earth, Colin Kaepernick had a ~2 year period of decent success in large part because of his legs, etc.  I mean, what separates Lamar Jackson the athlete from say Braxton Miller the athlete?   If Lamar Jackson is Michael Vick 2.0, they nailed this draft.  If he's just a "package player" he most certainly isn't worth the same as a starter at another position.

As for the difference between the Jets and Raven situation.  I feel exponentially more confident in Darnold's ability to play QB than I do Lamar's.  I'm okay with what the Jets gave up to get him.  If they gave up that same to get Lamar, I'd have lost my mind as a Jets fan.  I'd take Darnold for what the Jets gave up over what the Ravens got for Lamar Jackson, and I don't think twice about it.  IF Darnold whiffs, that's something I can live with.

[Krauser]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

But if the Vikings aren't planning on re-signing Trae Waynes, then that's another whiff of a pick.

Waynes was a decent pick, he developed into a good starting CB. They picked up his option (~$9M for 2019). 

They probably won't retain him long-term because they can't afford to pay everyone. If Waynes maintains the level of play he reached last year, he's worth Dre Kirkpatrick money (~$50M/5). More important for the Vikings to keep at least 2 of Hunter, Diggs and Barr. 

[CWood21]

6 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

So the Vikings cannot develop offensive lineman?  John Sullivan was a solid developed OL for the Vikings and was All Pro named at one point, now starting on the Rams.  Brandon Fusco the Vikings drafted and he is a decent guard in the league now, Phil Loadholt was a damn good player before all the injuries, Joe Berger's best years were in Minnesota, Mike Harris arguably had his best years in Minnesota as well, same could be said for Charlie Johnson.  Not to mention Nick Easton who obviously has had his best years in Minnesota as well and is currently still on the team.  So they have developed some late round guys or brought guys other teams did not want in and they played well or to their max potential.  So it is not like it is impossible for the Vikings to develop offensive lineman.

Sure Willie Beavers recently was a miss but his career is not yet over, will see, and David Yankey had promise but also so far has not done much in the league and is still around.  TJ Clemmings as well but was not some high 1st rounder or something.  Matt Kalil was the biggest whiff recently but was a Pro Bowler early in his career, not quite sure what has happened to him.  Then again not like they draft offensive lineman and spend high 1st round picks on them all that often outside of Kalil, they have taken an offensive lineman in the 1st round twice in twenty years being Kalil and Bryant McKinnie.  

 

The OL transformation from this past year and two years ago is huge, they got rid of TJ Clemmings, Andre Smith, Matt Kalil and Alex Boone and were greatly better for it and a much improved unit with Reiff, Easton, Eflein, Joe Berger, Remmers.  Would not think that would work but it did, sure Berger is retired and they had injuries to that group this past year but it was an fine improvement and I would assume more improvement from them this year as well.  Still like it has been said I think, Remmers is probably moving to guard, and if that is the case O'Neill will play at tackle this year I feel or if he does not that means Compton took over that guard spot or Isidora did and Remmers stayed at tackle.  Still with O'Neill they are far better off with him there than having only two real tackles on the roster in Reiff and Hill and was a good value where they got him in the 2nd round.  They needed a CB and OL help and they got that late in both rounds and could arguably not have gotten a better player at either of those picks at those exact positions.

 

As for CB, well yeah they would be in huge trouble if Rhodes goes down and they are only left with Waynes and Alexander as the starters, Newman I do not feel can start at his age, sure can play some slot and maybe safety if need but but at corner based on late last year in the playoffs, he was taken huge advantage of big time.  Hughes helps in the slot, and could also start out wide if asked, and not I do not think they will give up on Waynes or Alexander but one can never have too many corners I feel.  It was an issue in the last two games the Vikings played and they possibly solved that issue.  Sure maybe they drafted Hughes to not have to sign Waynes down the road but regardless they are both on the team now and are both potentially good players, Waynes was greatly improved last year I thought and has progressed well.  Alexander still needs to make more plays but is better than Sherels at nickle who they also resigned.  

 

So for what they needed they did well on those first two picks and where they got them.  Sure the middle of the draft one can have more issues with those picks.  Sure getting James Daniels or Hernandez would have been ok in the 1st but instead you got one of the best corners in the draft by far who fits a big need in the slot and in the return game.  Then late in the second they do get that OL help they needed in a guy who I feel had 1st round potential especially considering how big and athletic he is.  Will see what happens.

I'm certainly hoping you're not suggesting that the Vikings are good at developing OL, when their OL is routinely in the bottom half of the league.  Willie Beavers, T.J. Clemmings, David Yankey, Chris DeGeare, etc. were all guys drafted in that 3rd-5th round grange who amounted to nothing.  Brandon Fusco was a guy who IIRC Vikings' fans were actively looking to replace.  At best, he's a JAG.  All of the OL you mentioned aren't going on to get big contracts elsewhere or even playing a meaningful role.  I'd make the argument that the Vikings biggest OL hits were guys with high floors with limited upside.  Neither Pat Elflein or Phil Loadholt were guys that I thought had much in the way of upside, and their immediate success wasn't very surprising.  Joe Berger is a career journeyman, Mike Harris spent four years in the league before washing out, and Charlie Johnson quite frankly isn't much different than Joe Berger.

Wille Beavers is absolutely a bust at this point.  He played 2 games in his rookie year and missed all of the 2017 season.  Calling him anything but a bust is crazy.  At some point, you have to call it for what it is.  A whiff.  David Yankey was a guy billed as a high-floor OG out of Stanford and in his 4 years in the league he's got 6 GP to his credit.  He's a bust.  I don't care how much promise you think they have, it's a completely arbitrary point.  These are guys who are on the backend of the depth chart.  It'd be like me getting Lucas Patrick, Dillon Day, and Kofi Amichia simply because they're on the depth chart.  You've got another team in your division whose developed OL at a tremendous rate out of mid-round draft picks.  They Josh Sitton, T.J. Lang, David Baktiari, J.C. Tretter, and Corey Linsley in that 3rd-5th round range.  When has one of those Vikings' pick in that range amounted to anything?  Sitton, Lang, and Bakh are all among the top of their respective positions at one point or another, Corey Linsley just got a 3 year, $25.5M extension, and the Browns signed Tretter to a 3 year, $17M deal last offseason.  Teams aren't signing those players from the Vikings.

You talk about the transformation that the Vikings' OL has gone over the last few years, and being the tallest midget isn't anything to pound your chest about.  I'm not saying PFF is the end-all, be-all to the discussion but they graded the Vikings out as the 22nd best OL.  The year before, they were ranked 29th.  That's from being horrible to being mediocre.  That's nothing to brag about.  Because they got rid of stiffs who had no business playing in the NFL for guys who are going to be or are career journeyman isn't an accomplishment.

As for your discussion about Rhodes going down, find me a SINGLE franchise that wouldn't be hurt significantly if their top CB went down with injury.  If your justification for using your first round pick is that you want to protect yourself from an injury, you're already off on the wrong foot.  You can't operate with that mentality.  I mean, if that's the case why don't the Packers/Patriots use a 1st round pick on a QB?  Because they have more holes to fill.  LIS, I have no issues with the value on the pick.  I just find it crazy to think they're using another top 64 pick on a cornerback.  That means they're already admitting either their Trae Waynes or Mackensie Alexander pick was a mistake.  Add on the fact that I felt like the difference between Hernandez/Williams and O'Neill was much bigger than say Hughes and Oliver, and it's not a bigger head scratcher for me.

[Krauser]

Fusco got $12M/3 from Atlanta this year. He was good in 2013-14 before he got hurt. Agree that he's basically a JAG but he's an NFL starter and has far exceeded his draft position.

Berger was pretty good. Harris was pretty good the one year he got to start -- he didn't "wash out", he retired because he was found to have a cerebral AVM (sort of like an aneurysm). 

Agree that Beavers, Clemmings, Yankey etc were/are busts. Agree that the Vikings OL though improved remains mediocre, 22nd is a fair ranking. 

Agree that the Packers are much better at developing mid-round picks into very good starting OL. The Packers are easily the best in the league at that process, so any team is going to suffer by comparison.

7 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

That means they're already admitting either their Trae Waynes or Mackensie Alexander pick was a mistake.  Add on the fact that I felt like the difference between Hernandez/Williams and O'Neill was much bigger than say Hughes and Oliver, and it's not a bigger head scratcher for me.

Mistake or not, the Alexander pick evidently hasn't worked out. Maybe he can turn it around if he goes back to playing primarily outside, but for now the team doesn't seem to expect him to contribute much. 

It doesn't make this year's draft class any worse if the Vikings acknowledge the weaknesses of their existing roster. 

The Waynes pick worked out OK but they need a third starting quality corner and they need a long-term starter from 2020 onwards. "CB savior" or not, I would bet on Hughes developing into at least a good starting corner under Zimmer. 

Hernandez, Williams and Oliver were all off the board before pick 62. There was no way the Vikings could get 2 of them without trading up. 

I agree that they would've been in better shape this year with a plug and play starting OL at 30 (probably that would've been Williams or Corbett) and a competition at NCB with Alexander trying to improve, Newman hanging in at age 40 and a rookie drafted sometime on day 2 or 3. They should've been able to get by with that CB depth, and the OL would've been better from day one. 

Having said that, if O'Neill turns into a decent starting tackle in a year or so, the long-term value of this draft class will be very good, with 2 (including Hughes) starters at premium positions.

I understand if you don't think O'Neill can reach that level, given the Vikings track record with OL, but I think he's a better prospect than Jason Spriggs was coming out (picked at a similar position late 2nd) so it's not obviously bad value at that point in the draft to take a project at tackle.  

[Ozzy]

12 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I'm certainly hoping you're not suggesting that the Vikings are good at developing OL, when their OL is routinely in the bottom half of the league.  Willie Beavers, T.J. Clemmings, David Yankey, Chris DeGeare, etc. were all guys drafted in that 3rd-5th round grange who amounted to nothing.  Brandon Fusco was a guy who IIRC Vikings' fans were actively looking to replace.  At best, he's a JAG.  All of the OL you mentioned aren't going on to get big contracts elsewhere or even playing a meaningful role.  I'd make the argument that the Vikings biggest OL hits were guys with high floors with limited upside.  Neither Pat Elflein or Phil Loadholt were guys that I thought had much in the way of upside, and their immediate success wasn't very surprising.  Joe Berger is a career journeyman, Mike Harris spent four years in the league before washing out, and Charlie Johnson quite frankly isn't much different than Joe Berger.

Wille Beavers is absolutely a bust at this point.  He played 2 games in his rookie year and missed all of the 2017 season.  Calling him anything but a bust is crazy.  At some point, you have to call it for what it is.  A whiff.  David Yankey was a guy billed as a high-floor OG out of Stanford and in his 4 years in the league he's got 6 GP to his credit.  He's a bust.  I don't care how much promise you think they have, it's a completely arbitrary point.  These are guys who are on the backend of the depth chart.  It'd be like me getting Lucas Patrick, Dillon Day, and Kofi Amichia simply because they're on the depth chart.  You've got another team in your division whose developed OL at a tremendous rate out of mid-round draft picks.  They Josh Sitton, T.J. Lang, David Baktiari, J.C. Tretter, and Corey Linsley in that 3rd-5th round range.  When has one of those Vikings' pick in that range amounted to anything?  Sitton, Lang, and Bakh are all among the top of their respective positions at one point or another, Corey Linsley just got a 3 year, $25.5M extension, and the Browns signed Tretter to a 3 year, $17M deal last offseason.  Teams aren't signing those players from the Vikings.

You talk about the transformation that the Vikings' OL has gone over the last few years, and being the tallest midget isn't anything to pound your chest about.  I'm not saying PFF is the end-all, be-all to the discussion but they graded the Vikings out as the 22nd best OL.  The year before, they were ranked 29th.  That's from being horrible to being mediocre.  That's nothing to brag about.  Because they got rid of stiffs who had no business playing in the NFL for guys who are going to be or are career journeyman isn't an accomplishment.

As for your discussion about Rhodes going down, find me a SINGLE franchise that wouldn't be hurt significantly if their top CB went down with injury.  If your justification for using your first round pick is that you want to protect yourself from an injury, you're already off on the wrong foot.  You can't operate with that mentality.  I mean, if that's the case why don't the Packers/Patriots use a 1st round pick on a QB?  Because they have more holes to fill.  LIS, I have no issues with the value on the pick.  I just find it crazy to think they're using another top 64 pick on a cornerback.  That means they're already admitting either their Trae Waynes or Mackensie Alexander pick was a mistake.  Add on the fact that I felt like the difference between Hernandez/Williams and O'Neill was much bigger than say Hughes and Oliver, and it's not a bigger head scratcher for me.

You obviously just want to argue to argue.  I called Beavers a miss, but yeah do not want to totally rule him done for until he is out of the league for good.  Sure the Vikings are not great on the offensive line but to right off O'Neill as a prospect based on that, well that is just stupid.  And no I do not read PFF but have your opinion or their opinion, whatever it is just do not be surprised to see Hughes wildly succeed this year and O'Neill start at some point this year as well. 

Sure the Packers have done great things drafting in terms of OL talent. But the Packers usually draft extremely well so the fact they hit on lineman, well they hit on more than just lineman so that is not out of the norm.  But keep pretending CB was not a need for this Vikings roster, yeah right, much less a SLOT corner.  And guess what teams draft players sometimes so they do not have to pay other players in the near upcoming future with their upcoming contracts.  Just ask precious Green Bay about that one in regards to their defensive backfield....  

[wackywabbit]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

And I think that's where the biggest discrepancies are going to lie, your evaluation of Lamar Jackson.  If you view Lamar Jackson as a legitimate QB prospect, than you're going to like this draft.  If you're like me and don't view him as a legitimate QB prospect, you're probably not going to hate it.  Add on that I didn't like the value on the Hurst selection, and they're first two picks were whiffs for me.  The problem for me is that we've seen a flurry of these athletes at QBs, and they all tend to have a pretty short shelf life before the NFL figures them out.  I mean, when was the last time we had a "run first" QB have sustained success in the NFL over an extended period?  I think you'd have to go back to Michael Vick to find that kind of level of success over an extended period.  RG3 was great as a rookie and then got injured and fell off the face of the earth, Colin Kaepernick had a ~2 year period of decent success in large part because of his legs, etc.  I mean, what separates Lamar Jackson the athlete from say Braxton Miller the athlete?   If Lamar Jackson is Michael Vick 2.0, they nailed this draft.  If he's just a "package player" he most certainly isn't worth the same as a starter at another position.

As for the difference between the Jets and Raven situation.  I feel exponentially more confident in Darnold's ability to play QB than I do Lamar's.  I'm okay with what the Jets gave up to get him.  If they gave up that same to get Lamar, I'd have lost my mind as a Jets fan.  I'd take Darnold for what the Jets gave up over what the Ravens got for Lamar Jackson, and I don't think twice about it.  IF Darnold whiffs, that's something I can live with.

For the first paragraph, we both agree that it's a difference in evaluation. I don't subscribe to the written doctrine on the fate on athletic quarterbacks. In fact I think we may be at an all-time valley in terms of the perceived value of these types of QBs, after the ridiculous spike and drop of Kaepernick and RG3's stock. I think there're a lot more variables involved in their careers, just like with any QB's development. The idea that it's a rule that NFL defenses will magically "figure them out" and they are no longer effective, but it takes 10-20 games of tape to pattern-match to their specific brand of mobile quarterback-ness, that can never evolve on its own.... is quite the over-simplification.  Also, Russell Wilson gets thrown out for this rule, even though his passing numbers in his first 3 year of college don't look any better than Jackson's. To me, you get the magic combination of a generational athlete, with a cannon arm, who has a burning passion to be great*** and you should be able to figure out how to make it work. Just the fact that Ravens are willing to try, is fantastic to see as a fan.

*** This is the biggest key that I believe will separate LJ8 from some of the names thrown around with him. Granted, it's the hardest to discern/project, but that's the feeling I get. You need a near-psychotic devotion to the game to match up with the Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Wilson's... of the game. I had Wentz and Watson as elite QB prospects in 2016 and 17 because I got a similar vibe from them.

Regarding the bold: I already said why I'm lower on this move in the other draft ranking thread, but I contest your wording here. IF Darnold whiffs, then everyone associated with the decision is going to lose their job and the Jets franchise will be set back for years. If Lamar Jackson whiffs, the Ravens could still chug along as borderline playoff conteder or be better or worse depending on how their other moves go. THAT's the difference in the two situations and the point I was making about value.

[CWood21]

6 minutes ago, Krauser said:

Fusco got $12M/3 from Atlanta this year. He was good in 2013-14 before he got hurt. Agree that he's basically a JAG but he's an NFL starter and has far exceeded his draft position.

Berger was pretty good. Harris was pretty good the one year he got to start -- he didn't "wash out", he retired because he was found to have a cerebral AVM (sort of like an aneurysm). 

Agree that Beavers, Clemmings, Yankey etc were/are busts. Agree that the Vikings OL though improved remains mediocre, 22nd is a fair ranking. 

Agree that the Packers are much better at developing mid-round picks into very good starting OL. The Packers are easily the best in the league at that process, so any team is going to suffer by comparison.

I think the best case scenario with regards to Fusco is you'd call him an average starter.  He's not someone whose going to change the game one way or the other.  Honestly, not sure he's any different than Lane Taylor for the Packers.  He's not going to win you games, but he's also not going to lose you games.  If you want to call that a developmental win, I won't fight too hard given his draft status but it's not a big win by any means.  The point I was trying to make is that none of the OL that the Vikings supposedly developed have gone on to have a real career outside of Minnesota.  Harris hasn't played in the league since he was released from the Vikings.  Just because he was serviceable when he was with the Vikings doesn't mean he's good or even that they developed him.

And it wasn't to compare it to the Packers in a literal extent.  When you say a team is good at developing OL, you expect more than career journeyman and league average guards. They haven't drafted a high level starting OL other than maybe Elflein and I'd make the argument that most of his development came from when he was at Ohio State.  That's not a knock on the Vikings, just my opinion of the situation.

11 minutes ago, Krauser said:

Mistake or not, the Alexander pick evidently hasn't worked out. Maybe he can turn it around if he goes back to playing primarily outside, but for now the team doesn't seem to expect him to contribute much. 

It doesn't make this year's draft class any worse if the Vikings acknowledge the weaknesses of their existing roster. 

The Waynes pick worked out OK but they need a third starting quality corner and they need a long-term starter from 2020 onwards. "CB savior" or not, I would bet on Hughes developing into at least a good starting corner under Zimmer. 

Hernandez, Williams and Oliver were all off the board before pick 62. There was no way the Vikings could get 2 of them without trading up. 

I agree that they would've been in better shape this year with a plug and play starting OL at 30 (probably that would've been Williams or Corbett) and a competition at NCB with Alexander trying to improve, Newman hanging in at age 40 and a rookie drafted sometime on day 2 or 3. They should've been able to get by with that CB depth, and the OL would've been better from day one. 

Having said that, if O'Neill turns into a decent starting tackle in a year or so, the long-term value of this draft class will be very good, with 2 (including Hughes) starters at premium positions.

I understand if you don't think O'Neill can reach that level, given the Vikings track record with OL, but I think he's a better prospect than Jason Spriggs was coming out (picked at a similar position late 2nd) so it's not obviously bad value at that point in the draft to take a project at tackle.  

And that's fine.  I'd rather a team be too quick to pull the plug than too late.  But that still doesn't change my issue with the fact that I've already mentioned that the gap between the 2nd tier OL and 3rd tier OL was bigger than the the 2nd tier of CBs and 3rd tier of CBs.

Oliver went off the board at 58, and the Vikings picked at 60.  It's not unreasonable to believe that the Vikings could have moved up enough to take him and not give up anything of note.  I'd be willing to bet they could have used a 5th to move up high enough to get him.  I think given their situation, I think they would have been better off with a plug 'n play OL in the first and a developmental CB in the 2nd.  Instead, they took a CB who is likely buried on the DC in the first and a developmental OL in the 2nd.  Add on the Vikings' history of developing OL, and it's even more hazier. 

And no, Jason Spriggs was a significantly better prospect than O'Neill.  And that's not saying either are that great.  Spriggs had elite pass pro skills, and most felt that he'd turn into a strong LT.  Unfortunately, he lacked the power game and his ability to block counter moves especially towards the inside killed him.  There were several who thought that Spriggs would sneak into the 1st round, and when he fell to the 48th it was considered great value.  O'Neill was picked in the range he was supposed to.