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CW21's 2018 NFL Draft Review (Browns Up)


CWood21

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1(8) - Roquan Smith [LB; Georgia]
2(39) - James Daniels [C; Iowa]
2(51) - Anthony Miller [WR; Memphis]
4(115) - Joel Iyiegbuniwe [LB; Western Kentucky]
5(145) - Bilal Nichols [DT; Delaware]
6(181) - Kylie Fitts [EDGE; Utah]
7(224) - Javon Wims [WR; Georgia]

It's hard to find much to fault with the Bears draft, they got a good combination of upside and floors.  It might not go down as the sexiest of drafts, but this is probably a draft class that 10+ years down the road we're looking back and talking about the impact that this draft class had on the Bears' fortune.  Let's start at the beginning where the Bears tabbed Roquan Smith with the 8th overall pick.  Personally, I had Tremaine Edmunds as my top ranked LB and largely was based on the upside possessed.  Given his relative small stature, I had some questions about his ability to hold up in traffic particularly if the lineman in front of him were unable to sustain their blockers allowing him to make their move.  Ultimately though, it's hard to believe that he won't be productive with the Bears especially after producing at a high level at Georgia against tough SEC competition.  James Daniels graded out as my highest ranked C prospect in this year's drat, and figures to be a relatively safe bet to to anchor the offensive line for the next decade.  Billy Price and Frank Ragnow would have been ultimately graded higher than Daniels, in large part because I felt that Ragnow and Price had legitimate value as guard prospects as well.  I didn't really see guard value in Daniels, which is probably part of the reason why he fell into the second round where Billy Price and Frank Ragnow went in the first round.  Grabbing Anthony Miller towards the tail end of the second round is good value for him, although I question his fit outside of the slot.  The bigger issue I have is with what they gave up to secure him.  After giving up their third round pick as part of the Mitchell Trubisky trade, they had to give up a '19 2nd round pick to receive the pick from the Patriots.  Barring short of a significant improvement out of Mitchell Trubisky, they figure to be a bottom 10 team so giving up a pick in the 33-42 range is going to be hard to swallow.  The only WR's of value that I had left were Michael Gallup, so if you're fine with what they gave up then the value of the pick itself isn't bad.  In the fourth round, the Bears took Joel Iyiegbuniwe out of Western Kentucky who declared early for the NFL draft.  While I question his decision, it's not for me to judge when he's the one making the decision.  As for the player himself, he's a tremendous athlete but his lack of size is going to create struggles for him to succeed and he's going to fill in the same role as Roquan Smith which would indicate that he's a ST player at most.  Bilal Nichols came on late and showed up well at the East-West Shrine game.  There are some concerns about his motor.  Given his raw physical tools and how well he played against decent competition, that's not a bad gamble to make especially this late in the draft.  At the very least, he figures to add some solid depth on the defensive line for the Bears.  The inconsistent tape and hot/cold motor probably turned teams off.  Pass rushers tend to go off the board early and often, especially those who are proven.  Kylie Fitts wasn't very productive in terms of production in college, but he's a better athlete than given credit for.  He's probably not much more than a situational pass rusher at the next level, but his flexibility in terms of roles he was asked to play makes him a solid bet to make the final 53 and play on special teams.  I hadn't really evaluated Javon Wims as he was an average athlete at best and less than ideal hand size.  Given his limited athleticism, it's going to be tough for him to make the final 53 unless he cracks on special teams.  Overall, it's a solid but unspectacular draft class.  They should get a good amount of production, particularly out of their first two picks who should be stalwarts for the Bears for years to come.  Grabbing Anthony Miller gives the Bears another option to give Mitchell Trubisky to thrive, but the value is where I have the biggest question.  If the Bears keep borrowing picks from the future, they're eventually going to regret that decision and they need to put Mitchell Trubisky in a position to succeed.

Best Value Pick: James Daniels [C; Iowa]
Worst Value Pick: Anthony Miller [WR; Memphis]
Grade: B+

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1(28) - Terrell Edmunds [S; Virginia Tech]
2(60) - James Washington [WR; Oklahoma State]

3(76) - Mason Rudolph [QB; Oklahoma State]
3(92) - Chukwuma Okorafor [OT; Western Michigan]
5(148) - Marcus Allen [S; Penn State]
5(165) - Jaylen Samuels [TE; NC State]
7(246) - Joshua Frazier [DT; Alabama]

The Steelers draft was well...interesting to say the least.  I think the best thing I heard about the Steelers draft in the first two days was that the Steelers thought they drafted Tremaine Edmunds, and not Terrell Edmunds with their initial pick.  That being said, it's hard to get excited about the Steelers' draft.  Quite frankly, I'm not quite sure what their goal out of this draft was because it seems all over the place.  I had Terrell Emunds graded out as an early Day 3 pick, at best a late Day 2 pick which given that the Steelers picked at 28 seems bad value at best.  Given that the Steelers probably weren't in the mood to help the Ravens find their QBOTF, it's probably safe to assume that they wouldn't have taken the deal from the Ravens that would have netted their '19 2nd round pick. Still, it's hard to believe they couldn't have moved down into the second round and picked up an additional asset, likely in the form of a 4th round pick.  As for Edmunds himself, he's not as good a prospect as his brother but his value lies in the flexibility that the Steelers can move him around the defensive backfield.  He tested well at the Combine but didn't play that well at Virginia Tech and was probably the shock of the first round.  I'm always going to put a higher premium on rangy safeties, which is probably why I'm lower on Edmunds than I probably should.  But his versatility on the football field makes him an easy slot into multiple roles.  Unfortunately, Day 2 went worse for the Steelers in my eyes than Day 1.  At the very least, Edmunds has versatility going for him.  The Steelers took James Washington in the second round, and with Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster in the mix he's probably not going to be asked to shoulder the load.  Most of his production at Oklahoma State was as a deep threat, and they've got a really good in Antonio Brown.  I've got questions about his ability to play in the short-to-intermediate range.  He's not the best receiver with the ball in his hands, but the Steelers have always put a premium on guys who can threaten deep.  They paired James Washington with his college QB, Mason Rudolph.  To say I wasn't a fan of Mason Rudolph is putting it mildly.  Like Washington, I had him as a Day 3 prospect and his questionable accuracy in the short-to-intermediate accuracy.  Ultimately though, the success rate of Day 2 QBs is pretty damn miserable and I've got no reason to believe that Rudolph is going to buck those trends.  I'm still not totally sure where Chukwuma Okorafor fits in on the offensive line.  I'm not sure he's got the pass pro skills to play LT at the next level, and his lack of aggression wonders if guard is the fit for him.  If he's not able to play left tackle, that limits his flexibility on game days.  He needs to spend time strengthening his core and continuing to work on his technique.  Marcus Allen adds more depth in the backfield, and should be a solid special teams player.  Ultimately though, I'm not sure there's much upside with him.  Jaylen Samuels is probably the player I'm most intrigued by, and not because I think he's some special player but because I think his flexibility on game days is going to keep him in the league.  He's not a natural back, and he's not big enough to play as an in-line blocker which probably lends him to be more of an offensive weapon rather than having a particular position on offense.  I'm not convinced there's much with Joshua Frazier.  He doesn't offer much in terms of pass rush, which limits him into a run-stopping role.  Add on the lack of athleticism and I'm not sure he's going to be much more than a PS player.  This is a draft class that I hope I'm wrong, but this isn't a class I'd be happy about if I were a Steelers fans.  It lacks upside and it lacks floor, which is a scary proposition especially given the transition period the Steelers are likely going to be undergoing in the next 2-3 years.

Best Value Pick: Jaylen Samuels [TE; NC State]
Worst Value Pick: Terrell Edmunds [S; Virginia Tech]
Grade: D+

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Bears had one of my favorite drafts.  I would have given them an A. 

I agree about the Steelers draft, but I also hate the Steelers so I'm not the most neutral grader.  One thing I enjoyed as a Bengals fan is that they seemed to be addressing the future instead of going all in to help Ben this season.  They are still the best team in the AFCN but they probably had the weakest draft of all of the teams in the division.  That said I liked picks 4-6 for them, Okorafor, Allen, and Samuels were quality picks to make up for the lackluster first 3 picks.  They also are the best team in the league at developing WRs, so I wouldn't bet against Washington...

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D+ is probably too high for everyone in the forum but myself. I think C- is fair. I don't think the Edmunds pick is all that bad. Rudolph is the best value to me. WR is a need, especially since they got Washington and Rudolph.

I hope Summers can pan out, but I'm not holding my breath. Allen I feel won't do much. OT in the third was an awful pick since it's not even a need. Last pick is a head-scratcher.

 

I feel this draft won't be a bust, but it wasn't very good; in terms of drafting.

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4 minutes ago, TheVillain112 said:

Bears had one of my favorite drafts.  I would have given them an A. 

I agree about the Steelers draft, but I also hate the Steelers so I'm not the most neutral grader there.  One thing I enjoyed as a Bengals fan is that they seemed to be addressing the future instead of going all in to help Ben this season.  They are still the best team in the AFCN but they probably had the weakest draft of all of the teams in the division...

I tend to grade harder, A+ is NO 2017.   A is a top 3 draft.   Haven't really thought it out myself yet how they all shake out (Infinity Wars 2 viewings dammit), but B+ is a top 5-10 draft out of the league for me.   No idea what CW is doing, or his system, but I think B+ is actually a strong grade, as a reference.   Bears killed Day 1-2.  Day 3 was less impressive value-wise IMO, but if that's how it shakes out, it's still a great draft.    Now if everyone is getting B's, then yeah, the grading is meaningless, but as it stands, seems like Bears will end up with a top 5-10 draft grade, so that seems fair.

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1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

I tend to grade harder, A+ is NO 2017.   A is a top 3 draft.   Haven't really thought it out myself yet how they all shake out (Infinity Wars 2 viewings dammit), but B+ is a top 5-10 draft out of the league for me.   No idea what CW is doing, or his system, but I think B+ is actually a strong grade, as a reference.   Now if everyone is getting B's, then it's meaningless. 

I do think the Bears had a top 3 draft (maybe even #1 overall, but I haven't indepthly looked at all the drafts yet tbh)...

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2 minutes ago, TheVillain112 said:

I do think the Bears had a top 3 draft (maybe even #1 overall, but I haven't indepthly looked at all the drafts yet tbh)...

Not sure yet, it's going to be up there.  Paying up a 2nd 2019 does factor in (and Green Bay, for example, getting a 2019 1st will too).

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We're not so far off in opinions but you are undervaluing Edmunds with Day 3 range. I wasnt ecstatic about the pick but late 2nd early 3rd was the appropriate range with an arrow upward. It was the most questionable pick of the first round with the exception of New Orleans giving up next years 1st for a non QB. 

Im also not a fan of Washingtons and trying to come to grips with the pick. On the upside he has big strong hands but is not as consistent as folks would like you to think, he has lapses. So what Im guessing is the Steelers put significant value in someone being able to catch deep balls with regularity, however I fail to see how this receiver that shows no special ability to separate will do so to catch those deep balls as uncontested as they typically are in the Big 12. 

I was harder on Rudolph earlier in the draft process but I see the traits that intrigue. He did struggle at times with accuracy but I feel may have evolved some and can, similar to Dak Prescott perhaps who was a very shaky thrower up until late in his senior year at Miss State. The value at 79 was fine,I had him a little lower but the market always determines things with qbs, there was a market for him. 

The worst pick of the draft for the Steelers was easily the Okorafor pick based on several factors. His talent/technique and need for development. His hands are what bother me most, it takes a long time for him to get his hands up into position and to recoil and reset as well. The placement is typically outside rather than in and the combination of both factors leads to the potential for holding and getting beat. Im not fond of his get off / timing of the snap which again combined with the hands could be a killer. Lastly he isn't exactly aggressive, a characteristic that could've made up for some things. 

The other factors were the position itself and the lack of immediate need. I dont have a problem with taking BPA, but if your BPA is commonly regarded project in the 3rd round at a position you dont really need well then you must've really not thought much of the talent in this draft all together. 

Better talent at the position available at the time. Unless there were medical concerns about Tyrell Crosby's foot etc than its unfathomable for me to see how anyone could value Okorafor over Crosby. Time will tell but my money is on Crosby making a lot of of people question what they were looking at...

The Jaylen Samuels pick was outstanding and I think you are short changing his ability somewhat. The value here made up for a lot of the bad.

Marcus Allen is a great downhill player, with a great team attitude. Thing is we need more cover guys than anything and he has not shown much ability to do so. 

Frazier, its hard to figure how a 5 star prospect gets so little playing time. All those guys there deal with the same thing. I hope he produces, at the least beat out McCullers, however he will get a battle from LSU's UFA Greg Gilmore. Oughtta be a heck of a competition. 

I give it a C to a C- ...The Okorafor pick was what killed it for me. I really hope Washington proves us wrong. I see a 3rd or 4th receiver at best at any point is his career that we took in the 2nd round with a some very good DB talent on the board. 

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12 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I tend to grade harder, A+ is NO 2017.   A is a top 3 draft.   Haven't really thought it out myself yet how they all shake out (Infinity Wars 2 viewings dammit), but B+ is a top 5-10 draft out of the league for me.   No idea what CW is doing, or his system, but I think B+ is actually a strong grade, as a reference.   Bears killed Day 1-2.  Day 3 was less impressive value-wise IMO, but if that's how it shakes out, it's still a great draft.    Now if everyone is getting B's, then yeah, the grading is meaningless, but as it stands, seems like Bears will end up with a top 5-10 draft grade, so that seems fair.

Admittedly, my rankings are arbitrary and no real set grades.  More how I feel about the prospects themselves and the value that I felt each teams received.  I don't hand out A+ grades, and I sure as hell don't hand out any F grades.  But for reference, a B+ grade is a very strong grade.  If they would have done better on Day 3, they probably would have jumped into that A- territory.

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