CW21's 2018 NFL Draft Review (Browns Up)

[base615]

19 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

It also doesn't mean that 2 2nds aren't a big price to pay for Miller.  I absolutely love Miller, but that's still a big price to pay.    Love his game, love the boldness - it just does factor in the draft grading for sure (I mean, really, nothing's a lock, it's just opinion - I just totally see where @CWood21 is coming from here).

 

Again, we didn't pay two 2nds for Miller, only one - next year's 2nd. We didn't have a 2nd round pick when we made the trade so NE only received next year's 2nd (plus a 4th this year) in return for their 2nd this year.

People seem to be confused about what was paid for this pick. We paid a 4th rounder for the privilege of making a 2nd round pick a year early.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, base615 said:

Again, we didn't pay two 2nds for Miller, only one - next year's 2nd. We didn't have a 2nd round pick when we made the trade so NE only received next year's 2nd (plus a 4th this year) in return for their 2nd this year.

People seem to be confused about what was paid for this pick. We paid a 4th rounder for the privilege of making a 2nd round pick a year early.

Absolutely fair point, 2nd & 4th - Infinity Wars & work, brain cramp.   And yeah, it does make it a lower price for sure - as discussed, though, where it lands has a huge bearing on its value.  We'll see by next year.

[CWood21]

21 hours ago, base615 said:

You're comparing Goff and Big Ben's QBRs last year with stacked offensive weapons and serviceable coaching with Trubisky's rookie year with no weapons and Foxball.

If you're just looking at stats, the year before, Goff had a QBR of 63.6 and the Bears have had an offseason comparable to the Rams last year in terms of giving support to Trubisky. Trubisky, within the constraints of Fox / Loggains, played much better than his misleading 77.5 QBR and miles better than Goff's 2016 performance.

So...if the Bears aren't stacked with offensive weapons like Pittsburgh and Los Angeles to a lesser extent, what makes you think that that the "lesser" weapons that the Bears have are going to have Trubisky have that huge jump?  I'm a fan of the Nagy hire, but expecting a McVay impact on the offense is probably more than a bit rich.  At this point, I think you're flipping back and forth between discussions.  Our original point in this discussion was that rookie WRs usually aren't big producers, and you're "expectations" of 700 yards and 8 TD receptions is very unlikely to happen.  If you want to believe that Trubisky is going to have a Goff-like jump, go right ahead.  But don't be surprised if people don't see it.

[CWood21]

18 hours ago, Smhx2519 said:

I was not in favor of moving up for a quarterback in this draft as none of them separated themselves from the others. This team has other needs to fill and the second group of quarterbacks could be very good, White, Lauletta and Falk. Rosen needs to surpass Glennon in training  camp for me to be happy with this pick. 

I definitely disagree with this sentiment.  I wasn't a big fan of Josh Allen, but he was clearly a tier than the group of QBs you're talking about.  And I had Allen as a 3rd round grade.  The difference between Rosen and Lauletta/White was night and day.

[CWood21]

8 hours ago, base615 said:

Again, we didn't pay two 2nds for Miller, only one - next year's 2nd. We didn't have a 2nd round pick when we made the trade so NE only received next year's 2nd (plus a 4th this year) in return for their 2nd this year.

People seem to be confused about what was paid for this pick. We paid a 4th rounder for the privilege of making a 2nd round pick a year early.

That still doesn't change the fact that the Bears do not have a 2nd round pick in 2019, and that is factored in my grade.

[CWood21]

1(7) - Josh Allen [QB; Wyoming]
1(16) - Tremaine Edmunds [LB; Virginia Tech]
3(96) - Harrison Phillips [DT; Stanford]
4(121) - Taron Johnson [CB; Weber State]
5(154) - Siran Neal [S; Jacksonville State]
5(166) - Wyatt Teller [OG; Virginia Tech]
6(187) - Ray-Ray McLoud [WR; Clemson]
7(255) - Austin Proehl [WR; North Carolina]

Looking back at the Bills' draft, I think there's going to be two distinct sides to the opinion on their draft.   You either love the draft or you don't, and I don't think there's going to be a whole lot of people who fall in between.  Going into the draft, the Bills had five of the first 65 picks, so it was assumed that the Bills would somehow package some of their picks to ensure they land their franchise QB.  After failing to reach a deal with Denver at 5 or Indianapolis at 6, they managed to swing a deal with Tampa Bay that didn't cost them their second 1st round pick, 22nd overall, or their 2019 1st round pick which should be considered a win.  In comparison, the Bills gave up significantly more than what the Cardinals gave up, so the question is did the Bills give up too much to secure Allen?  The bigger problem I had was that Josh Allen was my 4th ranked QB, and he was clearly in a different tier than Josh Rosen.  I can't find much reason to penalize a team for drafting their QBOTF, but needless to say I'm not a fan of Allen.  His issues with accuracy and anticipation aren't mechanical issues in my mind, and if not corrected are going to cause him to bust.  With their pick at 22, I anticipated them to secure an IOL here but instead they opted to draft Tremaine Edmunds.  In terms of value, the Bills won in both trade value as well as drafting BPA although the drafting of a non-rush LB this early has some questions in terms of value.  Quite frankly, I probably would have stayed put at 22 and selected their highest ranked IOL and then used the 3rd round pick they gave up to draft Malik Jefferson if they felt that LB was a pressing need.  Regardless, I can't hate on the value even if I disagree with the philosophical value.  Grabbing Harrison Phillips at 96 was really good value, and should immediately become a rotational DL immediately.  Not sure he has much upside, but he should provide valuable reps.  Unfortunately, their Day 3 picks really underwhelmed me.  Corner tend to go early and often, so grabbing Taron Johnson in the 4th was probably a bit of a Hail Mary he should add some depth to the position.  Not sure I like what I saw from Siran Neal, as he seems to be better closer to the LOS but his size seems to make me worry that he won't be able to cut it there in the NFL.  And I'm not sure he has the coverage skills to make up for it.  I liked the value of Wyatt Teller in the 5th round, and could turn into a serviceable starter at guard.  But the fact that they waited until the 5th round to draft their first IOL scares me especially if they plan on getting Josh Allen reps at QB.  I like Ray-Ray McCloud, but there were better WRs on the board at the time and I'm not sure McCloud amounts to much.  I felt like ESB and Cedrick Wilson were the top ranked WR at the time, and if they preferred someone more in the slot WR mold that Braxton Berrios was a better fit.  Quite frankly, I'm not sure that Austin Proehl their 7th round pick isn't already better than McCloud.  Overall, the Bills came in with a TON of promise into the draft and they were underwhelming.  Even if you get past the Josh Allen selection, I think they missed on values in trades especially since Arizona got Rosen for a 3rd and 5th round pick instead of the two 2nds that Buffalo gave up.  How much different would the draft have gone for the Bills if they made a similar deal with Oakland and didn't trade up for Edmunds?  Walking away with Josh Allen (at 10), Isaiah Wynn (at 22), and whoever they liked at 53 and 56 seemed like better value, but that's using the value of hindsight.  Overall, I won't fault a team for taking a chance on their QBOTF but the Bills seemed to be all over the place and lost a bit of value across the board.

Best Value Pick: Harrison Phillips [DT; Stanford]
Worst Value Pick: Josh Allen [QB; Wyoming]
Grade: C-

[CWood21]

@NickChowaniec @Trentwannabe @LeeEvans @bigbadbuff23835 @The BILLievers @soflbillsfan @Thelonebillsfan @Suffering_Bills @Maxmw22 @Billsfaninptown @marshawn lynch @Yibbyl @BillsGuy82 @leeevans83d @davidderion @Iamcanadian

[BillsGuy82]

I'm surprised we waited on picking up an OL man but I like our draft a little bit more than you.

I wanted Rosen over Josh Allen long term but I feel Josh Allen will be alright. Tremaine Edmunds was a nice get like you said both in trade value and he was BPA. We needed at add better quality at LB. Harrison Phillips was a great get at 93. He'll be shown the ropes by Kyle Williams who was a similar prospect. Taron Johnson and Siran Neal are unknowns to me. Depth additions early who will contribute on special teams. Wyatt Teller was a nice get. Terrific value who will get every opportunity to start. McLoud and Proehl we depth guys who will contribute in the return game.

Overall, I think we did a decent job cashing in with our draft equity, acquiring a few lunch bucket guys like Edmunds, Phillips, Teller who will be long term quality contributors. I'd grade our draft a pretty solid "B".

Best picks - DT Harrison Phillips (93rd overall ),  OL Wyatt Teller (166th overall)

Worst pick - CB Taron Johnson (121 overall)

[onejayhawk]

Bills

Enough of the value questions about Josh Allen. If he's the worst value, then this is among the best drafts ever. Houston and KC took big hits last year for trading, then another hit this year because their #1 was already spent. Both now look like bargains, so let's not repeat the mistake. The Bills did well getting Josh Allen--period.

The Bills paid about as much as the book says they should pay for a #4 pick. There is more. Had Buffalo picked #4, we can safely assume the pick would have been the same. The Bills think he was worth the #4 pick, which is what they forked over in draft picks, but only have to pay the contract for the #4 slot. That's a bargain.

The other factor is whether Josh Allen is worth the #4 pick. Without any long arguments, the answer is yes. To roll the dice, you have to pay the money first. Allen is as good a gamble as any QB not named Luck has been. I have no problem with anyone that puts Rosen higher, because it just means two players are worth the fee to roll the dice. 

As to the rest of the evaluation, not bad. The second trade is easier to argue against, but he doesn't. They received good value for both #22 and #96. Day 3 is always a crap shoot. Give it a C grade if you want. They get a clear A for Day 1, and two Cs for the rest of the draft. That sounds like

B+

[CWood21]

16 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

Bills

Enough of the value questions about Josh Allen. The Bills paid a lot to move up for Allen, about as much as the book says they should pay for a #4 pick. Houston and KC took big hits last year for trading, then another hit this year because their #1 was already spent. Both now look like bargains, so let's not repeat the mistake. The Bills did well getting Josh Allen--period. There is more. Had Buffalo picked #4, we can safely assume the pick would have been the same. The Bills think he was worth the #4 pick, which is what they forked over in draft picks, but only have to pay the contract for the #4 slot. That's a bargain.

The other factor is whether Josh Allen is worth the #4 pick. Without any long arguments, the answer is yes. To roll the dice, you have to pay the money first. Allen is as good a gamble as any QB not named Luck has been. I have no problem with anyone that puts Rosen higher, because it just means two players are worth the fee to roll the dice. 

As to the rest of the evaluation, not bad. The second trade is easier to argue against, but he doesn't. They received good value for both #22 and #96. Day 3 is always a crap shoot. Give it a C grade if you want. They get a clear A for Day 1, and two Cs for the rest of the draft. That sounds like

B+

I'm not sure how you can just magically throw that question out the window.  They weren't in a position to draft Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield, so you can throw that hypothetical out the window.  Josh Allen was the highest drafted QB that wasn't a top 3 pick since Ryan Tannehill was selected 8th overall by the Dolphins in 2017.  In fact, the QBs drafted 6-12 since 2000 include Byron Leftwich (2003), Ben Roethlisburger (2004), Matt Leinart (2006), Jay Cutler (2006), Jake Locker (2011), Blaine Gabbert (2011), Christian Ponder (2011), and Ryan Tannehill (2008).  Even if you include Jay Cutler and Tannehill as hits, that's a success rate of 37.5%.  Now given what the Bills gave up, I'd certainly expect more than Jay Cutler/Ryan Tannehill.  That's my issue.  Allen needs to be more than a good QB, he needs to be a great QB and I don't think he's going to be a great QB.  Former career QB journeyman, Dan Orlovsky, had some really good breakdowns on Allen, and pretty much highlighted his issues.  He's not a naturally accurate passer and his throw anticipation lags severely.  Those are two significant red flags.  For me, getting Josh Rosen at 10 for a 3rd and 5th round pick FAR exceeds the pair of 2nds that the Bills gave up to get Allen, so that alone knocks the value down for the Bills.  Add on that I prefer Rosen to Allen, and the difference goes down significantly.  If you wanna gamble on Allen go right ahead.  That's not the gamble I'd make.  I'd rather run the risk that Rosen is going to alienate the locker room.  Maybe I'd feel a bit more comfortable if the OC/QB coach had more history working with QBs.

Speaking of trades, last year the Chiefs gave up #27, #91, and a '18 1st to move up to select Patrick Mahomes.  The Texans traded up using #25 and their '18 1st round pick.  Personally, I use the last pick of the next round to value future picks, so let's value the '18 1sts as the 64th pick of the '17 draft.  The Chiefs effectively got a surplus value of the 75th pick.  On the other hand, the Texans got a surplus value of 76th pick.  So they essentially both got an extra 3rd in return in a sense.  On the other hand, the Bills gave up an extra mid-2nd to move up.  That's poor value, especially given the fact that the Bills moved up 5 slots where as the Chiefs/Texans moved up 15+ spots.

[Iamcanadian]

On 4/29/2018 at 6:39 PM, CWood21 said:

AFC East

1(7) - Josh Allen [QB; Wyoming]
1(16) - Tremaine Edmunds [LB; Virginia Tech]
3(96) - Harrison Phillips [DT; Stanford]
4(121) - Taron Johnson [CB; Weber State]
5(154) - Siran Neal [S; Jacksonville State]
5(166) - Wyatt Teller [OG; Virginia Tech]
6(187) - Ray-Ray McLoud [WR; Clemson]
7(255) - Austin Proehl [WR; North Carolina]

Looking back at the Bills' draft, I think there's going to be two distinct sides to the opinion on their draft.   You either love the draft or you don't, and I don't think there's going to be a whole lot of people who fall in between.  Going into the draft, the Bills had five of the first 65 picks, so it was assumed that the Bills would somehow package some of their picks to ensure they land their franchise QB.  After failing to reach a deal with Denver at 5 or Indianapolis at 6, they managed to swing a deal with Tampa Bay that didn't cost them their second 1st round pick, 22nd overall, or their 2019 1st round pick which should be considered a win.  In comparison, the Bills gave up significantly more than what the Cardinals gave up, so the question is did the Bills give up too much to secure Allen?  The bigger problem I had was that Josh Allen was my 4th ranked QB, and he was clearly in a different tier than Josh Rosen.  I can't find much reason to penalize a team for drafting their QBOTF, but needless to say I'm not a fan of Allen.  His issues with accuracy and anticipation aren't mechanical issues in my mind, and if not corrected are going to cause him to bust.  With their pick at 22, I anticipated them to secure an IOL here but instead they opted to draft Tremaine Edmunds.  In terms of value, the Bills won in both trade value as well as drafting BPA although the drafting of a non-rush LB this early has some questions in terms of value.  Quite frankly, I probably would have stayed put at 22 and selected their highest ranked IOL and then used the 3rd round pick they gave up to draft Malik Jefferson if they felt that LB was a pressing need.  Regardless, I can't hate on the value even if I disagree with the philosophical value.  Grabbing Harrison Phillips at 96 was really good value, and should immediately become a rotational DL immediately.  Not sure he has much upside, but he should provide valuable reps.  Unfortunately, their Day 3 picks really underwhelmed me.  Corner tend to go early and often, so grabbing Taron Johnson in the 4th was probably a bit of a Hail Mary he should add some depth to the position.  Not sure I like what I saw from Siran Neal, as he seems to be better closer to the LOS but his size seems to make me worry that he won't be able to cut it there in the NFL.  And I'm not sure he has the coverage skills to make up for it.  I liked the value of Wyatt Teller in the 5th round, and could turn into a serviceable starter at guard.  But the fact that they waited until the 5th round to draft their first IOL scares me especially if they plan on getting Josh Allen reps at QB.  I like Ray-Ray McCloud, but there were better WRs on the board at the time and I'm not sure McCloud amounts to much.  I felt like ESB and Cedrick Wilson were the top ranked WR at the time, and if they preferred someone more in the slot WR mold that Braxton Berrios was a better fit.  Quite frankly, I'm not sure that Austin Proehl their 7th round pick isn't already better than McCloud.  Overall, the Bills came in with a TON of promise into the draft and they were underwhelming.  Even if you get past the Josh Allen selection, I think they missed on values in trades especially since Arizona got Rosen for a 3rd and 5th round pick instead of the two 2nds that Buffalo gave up.  How much different would the draft have gone for the Bills if they made a similar deal with Oakland and didn't trade up for Edmunds?  Walking away with Josh Allen (at 10), Isaiah Wynn (at 22), and whoever they liked at 53 and 56 seemed like better value, but that's using the value of hindsight.  Overall, I won't fault a team for taking a chance on their QBOTF but the Bills seemed to be all over the place and lost a bit of value across the board.

Best Value Pick: Harrison Phillips [DT; Stanford]
Worst Value Pick: Josh Allen [QB; Wyoming]
Grade: C-

I completely disagree, I would give the Bills an A+ for their draft. I see the potential of 2 All Pros from this draft and possibly 2 more solid starters. Deciding now that Allen is a flop is absurd, you cannot call a player a flop until it happens. Until then you assume the best for every team.

Come on, how many A+ rated 1st rounders have flopped when actually playing pro football, hundreds and their drafts all got an A+ rating and Allen is an A+ rated prospect, what he actually does as a pro is anybody's guess and that is the way it is for every 1st rounder and until they flop, they remain 1st rounders with huge potential!!!

[Iamcanadian]

30 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I'm not sure how you can just magically throw that question out the window.  They weren't in a position to draft Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield, so you can throw that hypothetical out the window.  Josh Allen was the highest drafted QB that wasn't a top 3 pick since Ryan Tannehill was selected 8th overall by the Dolphins in 2017.  In fact, the QBs drafted 6-12 since 2000 include Byron Leftwich (2003), Ben Roethlisburger (2004), Matt Leinart (2006), Jay Cutler (2006), Jake Locker (2011), Blaine Gabbert (2011), Christian Ponder (2011), and Ryan Tannehill (2008).  Even if you include Jay Cutler and Tannehill as hits, that's a success rate of 37.5%.  Now given what the Bills gave up, I'd certainly expect more than Jay Cutler/Ryan Tannehill.  That's my issue.  Allen needs to be more than a good QB, he needs to be a great QB and I don't think he's going to be a great QB.  Former career QB journeyman, Dan Orlovsky, had some really good breakdowns on Allen, and pretty much highlighted his issues.  He's not a naturally accurate passer and his throw anticipation lags severely.  Those are two significant red flags.  For me, getting Josh Rosen at 10 for a 3rd and 5th round pick FAR exceeds the pair of 2nds that the Bills gave up to get Allen, so that alone knocks the value down for the Bills.  Add on that I prefer Rosen to Allen, and the difference goes down significantly.  If you wanna gamble on Allen go right ahead.  That's not the gamble I'd make.  I'd rather run the risk that Rosen is going to alienate the locker room.  Maybe I'd feel a bit more comfortable if the OC/QB coach had more history working with QBs.

Speaking of trades, last year the Chiefs gave up #27, #91, and a '18 1st to move up to select Patrick Mahomes.  The Texans traded up using #25 and their '18 1st round pick.  Personally, I use the last pick of the next round to value future picks, so let's value the '18 1sts as the 64th pick of the '17 draft.  The Chiefs effectively got a surplus value of the 75th pick.  On the other hand, the Texans got a surplus value of 76th pick.  So they essentially both got an extra 3rd in return in a sense.  On the other hand, the Bills gave up an extra mid-2nd to move up.  That's poor value, especially given the fact that the Bills moved up 5 slots where as the Chiefs/Texans moved up 15+ spots.

Say what you want, everybody laughed at Chicago trading up for Trubisky, ditto for KC and Houston for Mahomes and Watson and IMO, we are the laughing stocks now for questioning the judgment of these organizations.

Beane, the Bills GM looks to me to be one of the best talent judges in the business and has already taken a dead Buffalo franchise quickly to the playoffs, with a career backup at QB and I for one, am not going to question his judgment on Allen until I actually see him flop.

I said right from the beginning that Rosen would drop to at least #10 on draft day if not further and it had nothing to do with character or talent, it had all to do with his ability to stay healthy and actually be able to play football and it my opinion and I guess in the opinion of most NFL GM's, they agreed. 

[Broncofan]

18 minutes ago, Iamcanadian said:

I completely disagree, I would give the Bills an A+ for their draft. I see the potential of 2 All Pros from this draft and possibly 2 more solid starters. Deciding now that Allen is a flop is absurd, you cannot call a player a flop until it happens. Until then you assume the best for every team.

Come on, how many A+ rated 1st rounders have flopped when actually playing pro football, hundreds and their drafts all got an A+ rating and Allen is an A+ rated prospect, what he actually does as a pro is anybody's guess and that is the way it is for every 1st rounder and until they flop, they remain 1st rounders with huge potential!!!

I would point out in his first line that @CWood21 said there were either going to be guys that hated or loved the Bills draft, and that they fell on how people viewed Josh Allen.  We're just seeing 2 sides of the coin here, it really just hinges on that assessment.   And that there wouldn't be much room in between for middle-ground takes.

Judging by the C- and A+, so far so good on that prediction lol. 

[Iamcanadian]

9 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I would point out in his first line that @CWood21 said there were either going to be guys that hated or loved the Bills draft, and that they fell on how people viewed Josh Allen.  We're just seeing 2 sides of the coin here, it really just hinges on that assessment.   And that there wouldn't be much room in between for middle-ground takes.

Judging by the C- and A+, so far so good on that prediction lol. 

Right, but Wood21 took the C- root, so I thought the A+ route should be added to the discussion as well.

[Broncofan]

Just now, Iamcanadian said:

Right, but Wood21 took the C- root, so I thought the A+ route should be added to the discussion as well.

No worries, it's all opinion, that's part of the fun too, as long as ppl can back it up, all we can ask for.   Allen has the ceiling and physical tools to tout the A+ side, and the weaknesses to tout the C- side.   As a DEN fan, I'm relieved I don't have to worry that much about it - our record in coaching these kind of guys up (our Day 2 is littered with them during the Elway era) said we should stay away.