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CW21's 2018 NFL Draft Review (Browns Up)


CWood21

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On 4/30/2018 at 8:08 PM, CWood21 said:

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1(28) - Terrell Edmunds [S; Virginia Tech]
2(60) - James Washington [WR; Oklahoma State]

3(76) - Mason Rudolph [QB; Oklahoma State]
3(92) - Chukwuma Okorafor [OT; Western Michigan]
5(148) - Marcus Allen [S; Penn State]
5(165) - Jaylen Samuels [TE; NC State]
7(246) - Joshua Frazier [DT; Alabama]

The Steelers draft was well...interesting to say the least.  I think the best thing I heard about the Steelers draft in the first two days was that the Steelers thought they drafted Tremaine Edmunds, and not Terrell Edmunds with their initial pick.  That being said, it's hard to get excited about the Steelers' draft.  Quite frankly, I'm not quite sure what their goal out of this draft was because it seems all over the place.  I had Terrell Emunds graded out as an early Day 3 pick, at best a late Day 2 pick which given that the Steelers picked at 28 seems bad value at best.  Given that the Steelers probably weren't in the mood to help the Ravens find their QBOTF, it's probably safe to assume that they wouldn't have taken the deal from the Ravens that would have netted their '19 2nd round pick. Still, it's hard to believe they couldn't have moved down into the second round and picked up an additional asset, likely in the form of a 4th round pick.  As for Edmunds himself, he's not as good a prospect as his brother but his value lies in the flexibility that the Steelers can move him around the defensive backfield.  He tested well at the Combine but didn't play that well at Virginia Tech and was probably the shock of the first round.  I'm always going to put a higher premium on rangy safeties, which is probably why I'm lower on Edmunds than I probably should.  But his versatility on the football field makes him an easy slot into multiple roles.  Unfortunately, Day 2 went worse for the Steelers in my eyes than Day 1.  At the very least, Edmunds has versatility going for him.  The Steelers took James Washington in the second round, and with Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster in the mix he's probably not going to be asked to shoulder the load.  Most of his production at Oklahoma State was as a deep threat, and they've got a really good in Antonio Brown.  I've got questions about his ability to play in the short-to-intermediate range.  He's not the best receiver with the ball in his hands, but the Steelers have always put a premium on guys who can threaten deep.  They paired James Washington with his college QB, Mason Rudolph.  To say I wasn't a fan of Mason Rudolph is putting it mildly.  Like Washington, I had him as a Day 3 prospect and his questionable accuracy in the short-to-intermediate accuracy.  Ultimately though, the success rate of Day 2 QBs is pretty damn miserable and I've got no reason to believe that Rudolph is going to buck those trends.  I'm still not totally sure where Chukwuma Okorafor fits in on the offensive line.  I'm not sure he's got the pass pro skills to play LT at the next level, and his lack of aggression wonders if guard is the fit for him.  If he's not able to play left tackle, that limits his flexibility on game days.  He needs to spend time strengthening his core and continuing to work on his technique.  Marcus Allen adds more depth in the backfield, and should be a solid special teams player.  Ultimately though, I'm not sure there's much upside with him.  Jaylen Samuels is probably the player I'm most intrigued by, and not because I think he's some special player but because I think his flexibility on game days is going to keep him in the league.  He's not a natural back, and he's not big enough to play as an in-line blocker which probably lends him to be more of an offensive weapon rather than having a particular position on offense.  I'm not convinced there's much with Joshua Frazier.  He doesn't offer much in terms of pass rush, which limits him into a run-stopping role.  Add on the lack of athleticism and I'm not sure he's going to be much more than a PS player.  This is a draft class that I hope I'm wrong, but this isn't a class I'd be happy about if I were a Steelers fans.  It lacks upside and it lacks floor, which is a scary proposition especially given the transition period the Steelers are likely going to be undergoing in the next 2-3 years.

Best Value Pick: Jaylen Samuels [TE; NC State]
Worst Value Pick: Terrell Edmunds [S; Virginia Tech]
Grade: D+

Also, I find it odd that you say this in the Bills' evaluation...

"Overall, I won't fault a team for taking a chance on their QBOTF but the Bills seemed to be all over the place and lost a bit of value across the board."

Yet, we take Rudolph, who was rated above Josh Allen on some boards, but who cares about boards, to me, simply has a better chance of success in the NFL than Allen, who was taken 7th, when Rudolph was taken 76th overall. Are you telling me that you think Allen is 2.5 Rds better a prospect than Rudolph? If you want to talk about accuracy, Rudolph has it all day over Allen, not to mention, success when playing Div I teams, which Allen simply flunked hard anytime he had to play the 'big boys'.

As far as your comment about Day 2 QBs?  Seriously?  As recently as Brissett, then guys like Wilson, Dalton, Carr, Garroppolo,...Foles, McCoy, and Osweiler played pretty well for a couple years,  and say what you want about Kaepernick and his antics, but his QB play is just fine...spectacular?  No, but we all know what the real reasons are behind his recent issues.

Then we can go to Day 3 QB successes, but yes, the %s there would be poor, but for Day 2...as of late...I'm not sure what the numbers are, but with failures like RG III, Tannehill, Weeden, Manuel, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Manziel, Bridgewater (??), and Tebow, and dare I say...no, I won't...LOL...but point is, I highly doubt the 1st Rd success rate is that much better than Day 2 QBs.  Are they 'Bigger' stars??? Probably, but I'd put Wilson up against any of them...Dalton and Carr, too, even, against anyone not named Wentz.

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On 5/3/2018 at 7:14 PM, onejayhawk said:

Distinguish reach fro overpay. They are very different. The first is an opinion on player valuation. The second is a matter of competence. For example, You may be of the opinion that $ballpark dogs are only worth $1. Paying $2 is reaching. Overpaying is giving the vendor $3. Say the Bills reached if you wish, but don't say they did not know the price.

J

The Bills got knocked twice on their Allen selection so to speak.  Personally, I felt they overpaid to move up to select Josh Allen.  I don't think that moving up 5 slots was worth 2 second round picks.  For me, that was their first strike.  The second strike was that I didn't like Josh Allen, and thought he was poor value at 12 let alone 7.  They reached for a player I didn't value nearly as high as the Bills clearly did, and I thought they gave up poor value for the 7th pick.

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On 5/5/2018 at 9:30 AM, Ward4HOF said:

Also, I find it odd that you say this in the Bills' evaluation...

"Overall, I won't fault a team for taking a chance on their QBOTF but the Bills seemed to be all over the place and lost a bit of value across the board."

Yet, we take Rudolph, who was rated above Josh Allen on some boards, but who cares about boards, to me, simply has a better chance of success in the NFL than Allen, who was taken 7th, when Rudolph was taken 76th overall. Are you telling me that you think Allen is 2.5 Rds better a prospect than Rudolph? If you want to talk about accuracy, Rudolph has it all day over Allen, not to mention, success when playing Div I teams, which Allen simply flunked hard anytime he had to play the 'big boys'.

As far as your comment about Day 2 QBs?  Seriously?  As recently as Brissett, then guys like Wilson, Dalton, Carr, Garroppolo,...Foles, McCoy, and Osweiler played pretty well for a couple years,  and say what you want about Kaepernick and his antics, but his QB play is just fine...spectacular?  No, but we all know what the real reasons are behind his recent issues.

Then we can go to Day 3 QB successes, but yes, the %s there would be poor, but for Day 2...as of late...I'm not sure what the numbers are, but with failures like RG III, Tannehill, Weeden, Manuel, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Manziel, Bridgewater (??), and Tebow, and dare I say...no, I won't...LOL...but point is, I highly doubt the 1st Rd success rate is that much better than Day 2 QBs.  Are they 'Bigger' stars??? Probably, but I'd put Wilson up against any of them...Dalton and Carr, too, even, against anyone not named Wentz.

Let me start off with the first part.  Yes, I'd take Josh Allen over Mason Rudolph in a heartbeat and I wouldn't think even twice about it.  In terms of tools, Allen is considered more tooled up than Rudolph.  Add on that Rudolph's accuracy in the short-to-intermediate game leaves a LOT to be desired and definitely masqueraded by the offense that he played in Stillwater.  Add on Allen's experience in a pro-style offensive system, and I think there's very few people who felt that Rudolph was a better prospect than Allen.  It certainly wasn't close for me, and I wasn't even a Josh Allen fan.  I believe I had a 5th round grade on him.  I think you're kidding yourself if you think Rudolph is as accurate as the numbers indicate.  And don't forget that Rudolph had considerably better offensive weapons around him.

As for Day 2 QBs, there's been a ton of studies.  You can Google it if you want, just search for it and you'll find multiple links.

https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/6/28/15880748/success-rates-of-drafted-quarterbacks

That's just one blog discussing it.  Look at the success rate of QBs taken in the top 16, that's 81%.  Then compare it to those taken in the 3rd round, which is 25%.  That's a DRASTIC difference.  Nobody is saying that you can't find a quality QB on the second day or that you'll get a bust in the first.  The argument is that you're pulling on a very thin chance of finding one.  From 2013 to 2015, there were 6 QBs taken on Day 2.  Only two of them are viable starting QBs, and I'd make the argument that if Carr had a different last name he would have gone in the first round.  That's a success rate of 33%.  Let's expand to look at the Day 2 QBs taken from 2010 to 2015.  There were 14 QBs taken in that range. Of those 14, only 4 are slated to be their teams' starting QB which amounts to a success rate of 29%.  That's NOT very good success rate.  Let's go from 2005 to 2015 now.  There were 29 QBs taken on Day 2 over that period.  Of those 29, only four are currently slated to be starting QBs.  Of those 29, only FOUR had cAV north of 30.  That's a success rate of 14%.  That's miserable.  You want to point to the exceptions in Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, etc.  I'm going to point the three or four busts that surround them.  If you want to believe that Mason Rudolph is going to be the exception, go right ahead.  But don't be surprised when people disagree with you.

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3(89) - Joseph Noteboom [OT; TCU]
4(111) - Brian Allen [C; Michigan State]
4(135) - John Franklin [DT; Stephen F. Austin]
5(147) - Micah Kiser [LB; Virginia]
5(160) - Ogbo Okoronkwo [EDGE; Oklahoma]
6(176) - John Kelly [RB; Tennessee]
6(192) - Jamil Demby [OG; Maine]

6(195) - Sebastian Joseph [DT; Rutgers]
6(205) - Trevon Young [EDGE; Louisville]
7(231) - Travin Howard [LB; TCU]
7(244) - Justin Lawler [DE; SMU]

After trading their 2nd round pick in 2017 as part of the Sammy Watkins trade, and then dealt their 1st round pick as part of the Brandin Cooks trade, the Rams came into the draft with only one selection in the first 100 picks.  With such limited number of assets available, Day 1 of the NFL Draft was ridiculously boring for Rams fans.  And with a pick that was in the late 3rd, Day 2 wasn't much more exciting.  And when the Rams were finally on the clock at 87, the Rams moved down two spots swapping spots with the Raiders who moved up to select Arden Key.  Finally at 89, the Rams selected Joseph Noteboom out of TCU.  Noteboom was a bit of a late read by me, but the tools are there to be a starting offensive tackle, which you usually won't have an opportunity to draft this late.  Right now, his pass pro is far ahead of his run blocking largely because he lacks the aggressiveness to go attack a defender.  His footwork needs a bit of work, but he's got pass pro potential to eventually replace Andrew Whitworth.  A year in a S&C room is going to do him wonders, but his rookie year could be a bit rough to due to a lack of core strength.  The Rams continued to address the offensive line by selecting Brian Allen at 111.  That may have been a tad higher than I'd take him, but not terrible value here.  Hadn't really seen much of John Franklin, but from what I've gathered he's pretty much a draft and stash DL.  I wouldn't anticipate much from him this year, but he seems like a good enough athlete that you'll gamble on developing him.  Kiser should provide some additional depth at LB especially after the Rams dealt Alec Ogletree away this offseason but I don't think he'll ever amount to much more than that.  I don't feel he offers enough in pass coverage to play as an everydown LB.  I like the grab of Ogbo Okoronkwo in the fifth even if he doesn't amount to much more than a situational pass rusher.  Most felt he was going to come in as another one of those undersized college pass rushers who live off their speed, but Ogbo tested out quite well and taller than anticipated.  Still, he slipped to the fifth round where the Rams took a gamble on him.  I really like the selection of John Kelly in the 6th round, who was more productive than Alvin Kamara was with Tennessee.  But don't anticipate him being as productive as Kamara.  Kamara fell into the ideal situation with New Orleans, and Kelly figures to have a chance to win the backup RB spot to Todd Gurley.  Jamil Demby in the sixth wasn't bad value to add if you're looking to add some depth on the OL.  The Rams continued to add more depth to the defensive in the 7th round with Sebastian Joseph and Justin Lawler.  Trevon Young was an interesting gamble in the sixth round, but ultimately the medical concerns with him probably outweigh what future production he might have.  If you were to picture an idea of the most basic draft, this would have been a prime example of it.  The Rams didn't do anything flashy, but I also don't think they left upside on the table.  The Rams who were without their top two picks were limited in the draft in terms of flexibility had a very solid draft.

Best Value Pick: John Kelly [RB; Tennessee]
Worst Value Pick: John Franklin [DT; Stephen F. Austin]
Grade: C

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17 minutes ago, Forge said:

He would be for me 

Absolutely.  And I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'd rather have Josh Allen for what the Bills gave up than Mason Rudolph for what they used on him.  Let me be clear, I don't think Josh Allen is going to be the solution for Buffalo, but I'm significantly more confident that Allen can/will be a better QB than Mason Rudolph.

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

los_angeles_rams.png

3(89) - Joseph Noteboom [OT; TCU]
4(111) - Brian Allen [C; Michigan State]
4(135) - John Franklin [DT; Stephen F. Austin]
5(147) - Micah Kiser [LB; Virginia]
5(160) - Ogbo Okoronkwo [EDGE; Oklahoma]
6(176) - John Kelly [RB; Tennessee]
6(192) - Jamil Demby [OG; Maine]

6(195) - Sebastian Joseph [DT; Rutgers]
6(205) - Trevon Young [EDGE; Louisville]
7(231) - Travin Howard [LB; TCU]
7(244) - Justin Lawler [DE; SMU]

After trading their 2nd round pick in 2017 as part of the Sammy Watkins trade, and then dealt their 1st round pick as part of the Brandin Cooks trade, the Rams came into the draft with only one selection in the first 100 picks.  With such limited number of assets available, Day 1 of the NFL Draft was ridiculously boring for Rams fans.  And with a pick that was in the late 3rd, Day 2 wasn't much more exciting.  And when the Rams were finally on the clock at 87, the Rams moved down two spots swapping spots with the Raiders who moved up to select Arden Key.  Finally at 89, the Rams selected Joseph Noteboom out of TCU.  Noteboom was a bit of a late read by me, but the tools are there to be a starting offensive tackle, which you usually won't have an opportunity to draft this late.  Right now, his pass pro is far ahead of his run blocking largely because he lacks the aggressiveness to go attack a defender.  His footwork needs a bit of work, but he's got pass pro potential to eventually replace Andrew Whitworth.  A year in a S&C room is going to do him wonders, but his rookie year could be a bit rough to due to a lack of core strength.  The Rams continued to address the offensive line by selecting Brian Allen at 111.  That may have been a tad higher than I'd take him, but not terrible value here.  Hadn't really seen much of John Franklin, but from what I've gathered he's pretty much a draft and stash DL.  I wouldn't anticipate much from him this year, but he seems like a good enough athlete that you'll gamble on developing him.  Kiser should provide some additional depth at LB especially after the Rams dealt Alec Ogletree away this offseason but I don't think he'll ever amount to much more than that.  I don't feel he offers enough in pass coverage to play as an everydown LB.  I like the grab of Ogbo Okoronkwo in the fifth even if he doesn't amount to much more than a situational pass rusher.  Most felt he was going to come in as another one of those undersized college pass rushers who live off their speed, but Ogbo tested out quite well and taller than anticipated.  Still, he slipped to the fifth round where the Rams took a gamble on him.  I really like the selection of John Kelly in the 6th round, who was more productive than Alvin Kamara was with Tennessee.  But don't anticipate him being as productive as Kamara.  Kamara fell into the ideal situation with New Orleans, and Kelly figures to have a chance to win the backup RB spot to Todd Gurley.  Jamil Demby in the sixth wasn't bad value to add if you're looking to add some depth on the OL.  The Rams continued to add more depth to the defensive in the 7th round with Sebastian Joseph and Justin Lawler.  Trevon Young was an interesting gamble in the sixth round, but ultimately the medical concerns with him probably outweigh what future production he might have.  If you were to picture an idea of the most basic draft, this would have been a prime example of it.  The Rams didn't do anything flashy, but I also don't think they left upside on the table.  The Rams who were without their top two picks were limited in the draft in terms of flexibility had a very solid draft.

Best Value Pick: John Kelly [RB; Tennessee]
Worst Value Pick: John Franklin [DT; Stephen F. Austin]
Grade: C

This draft was always going to be about depth and setting our OL up for the future. I can't agree with Franklin being the worst value pick. Based on what I've seen and read, it's possible that he could be the best pick out of this Draft in a few years. I'd probably go with Allen as the worst value pick. But it's a fair breakdown.

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1(22) - Rashaan Evans [LB; Alabama]
2(41) - Harold Landry [EDGE; Boston College]
5(152) - Dane Cruikshank [CB; Arizona]
6(199) - Luke Falk [QB; Washington State]

I'd have had way too many philosophical discussions about the merits of trading up in the first round, and for the most part my argument comes around two very important facts.  By trading up in the first round, you have to at a bare minimum give up your 3rd round pick to make any sort of move and if you want to make a notable move you have to either deal your second round pick or a future first round pick.  Fortunately, the Titans didn't dig into their 2019 picks or give up a Day 2 pick in order to move up in the first which would fall into the value portion of which I'm okay with.  But when you trade up in the first, you're limited in your flexibility later on in the draft.  In terms of trade value, I think the Titans did well.  As I mentioned in the Bills' review, I'm not a huge fan of trading up for off-ball linebackers but I do like the aggressiveness the Titans showed by going up and getting their guy, as they clearly felt the Patriots would take them if they didn't make that move.  Most teams who move up in the first round are trying to recover the picks they gave up by moving down, but since the Titans didn't have to give up their 3rd round pick they didn't feel the need to recoup that 3rd round pick.  With that added extra asset, the Titans surprised many including myself by moving up a second time to select Harold Landry who fell because of medical concerns.  Color me someone who thought that Harold Landry should have gone higher than 41, and had he stayed healthy he would have been as productive as he was in 2016 and would have gone off the board significantly higher than this.  The Titans won this trade by a slim margin, but they were aggressive in attacking a need and found someone of tremendous value.  I'm not sure that Harold Landry is more than a situational pass rusher, but if he develops into more than this trade-up was well worth it.  After trading their 3rd and 4th round picks, the Titans didn't have a pick until 152 at which point you're starting to dig into your UDFA rankings and selecting guys you are prioritizing.  Dane Cruikshank has some really good measureables, but the tape doesn't match those and he often gave up too many big plays in coverage.  Ultimately though, they can transition him to safety if he doesn't work out at cornerback.  With their last pick at 199, they took a QB who barring injury to Marcus Mariota won't be playing outside of mop up duties.  And he's not going to supplant Blaine Gabbert as the backup QB this year.  I suppose if they're looking to develop a long-term backup behind Mariota, there are worse gambles than Falk but given how bad his 2017 tape was I didn't even have a draftable grade on him.  He was outplayed by his backup whenever he was forced out by injury, and coming out of Mike Leach's offense makes it hell to feel like he's even remotely capable of playing in the NFL.  Overall, this is an interesting draft in the sense that we saw them trade up with both of their top two picks.  I honestly don't recall the last time I've seen a team do that, and I'm sure it's been a while.  Maybe someone will figure that one out.  That being said, the Titans were incredibly aggressive about targeting their guys and getting good value on the trades.  There's a few philosophical issues I don't like here, but it's hard to argue with the results.  Overall, a pretty strong draft but there's a TON of risk when you're essentially hedging your draft into two players.

Best Value Pick: Harold Landry [EDGE; Boston College]
Worst Value Pick: Rashaan Evans [LB; Alabama]
Grade: B

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10 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

This draft was always going to be about depth and setting our OL up for the future. I can't agree with Franklin being the worst value pick. Based on what I've seen and read, it's possible that he could be the best pick out of this Draft in a few years. I'd probably go with Allen as the worst value pick. But it's a fair breakdown.

Like I mentioned, it's hard to feel like you can impact your team when your first selection isn't until the end of the 3rd round.  I think the Rams did as well as they could have done given the circumstances, but I'm not sure any of their picks really impact the 2019 Rams.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but none of the rookies project to be starters and I think Ogbo Okoronkwo is really the only whose projected to be at least a situational player.  I've got some concerns about John Sullivan's health, so Brian Allen could be pushed into action sooner rather than later.  Overall, the Rams had a solid plan and stuck to it.  Hard to fault them for that.  I would taken a few more risks on Day 3 though.  As for Franklin, it's hard to project him as anything more than a year away from being a rotational player.  And it's not like they took a gamble on some toolsy, athletic type.  Most of the guys he compares to athletically are guys with physical limitations, i.e. Christian Ballard, Datone Jones, DaQuan Bowers, etc.

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@CWood21 - I mentioned this in the other thread - but much respect for doing such an in-depth breakdown.   Although I still find it hard to argue with your takes in the OP.   :D

But back to serious discussion - with your grades in, are you going to amalgamate and rank the teams by tier through the grade when all 32 teams are done?   Or are you already doing that (just behind the scenes, in which case, never mind)?   For all the discussion about grades, like I said in the other thread that ranked from 1-32, its probably more important to see how tiers are arranged.  The same would apply to arguing about a B vs. C+, etc.     Now, you've implicitly tiered with the overall grade, but it's also a nice internal check for consistency to explicitly rank drafts, because if all the teams with the same grade are still in the same tier, you're all good.   

If you're already doing it, all good.  Might want to consider summarizing the tiers at the end, if you're doing it a different way.  Then you'd know that your gut feel wasn't influenced by doing a team 1st or 32nd in order.    Either way, though, much respect - I don't know if ppl realize just how much work these in-depth analyses are, especially those that breakdown with reasoning and rationale.   That's a ton of work, much respect.

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4 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Like I mentioned, it's hard to feel like you can impact your team when your first selection isn't until the end of the 3rd round.  I think the Rams did as well as they could have done given the circumstances, but I'm not sure any of their picks really impact the 2019 Rams.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but none of the rookies project to be starters and I think Ogbo Okoronkwo is really the only whose projected to be at least a situational player.  I've got some concerns about John Sullivan's health, so Brian Allen could be pushed into action sooner rather than later.  Overall, the Rams had a solid plan and stuck to it.  Hard to fault them for that.  I would taken a few more risks on Day 3 though.  

Yea, I think Okoronkwo will play. Kiser might as well. He'll battle with Littleton. I don't see anyone else playing on offense or defense unless they're replacing an injured player.

Quote

As for Franklin, it's hard to project him as anything more than a year away from being a rotational player. And it's not like they took a gamble on some toolsy, athletic type. Most of the guys he compares to athletically are guys with physical limitations, i.e. Christian Ballard, Datone Jones, DaQuan Bowers, etc.

Huh? That's basically exactly what he is. All of the guys you named were considered athletic, toolsy-type players. Franklin-Myers tested better than Chad Thomas and Breeland Speaks. He put up quality agility numbers for his size and posted a 4.75 40 at 283 pounds.

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