CW21's 2018 NFL Draft Review (Browns Up)

[diamondbull424]

25 minutes ago, paraven said:

TBH, im not a stat guy, If he plays big in big games and goes for 11 tds and no ints in a  playoff run to the  super bowl then I will like him. If he puts up big numbers in the regular season and chokes in the playoffs, I will not be happy. Obviously if he does  both then its great. 

So, if you’re not a stat guy. Then provide a comparable QB that would meet your minimum threshold for a “serviceable” QB in terms of career/play.

Are we talking Tyrod Taylor? Alex Smith? Joe Flacco? Cam Newton? Matt Ryan?

Who are current three current NFL QBs that you would consider minimum thresholds for Jackson?

[paraven]

Just now, diamondbull424 said:

So, if you’re not a stat guy. Then provide a comparable QB that would meet your minimum threshold for a “serviceable” QB in terms of career/play.

Are we talking Tyrod Taylor? Alex Smith? Joe Flacco? Cam Newton? Matt Ryan?

Who are current three current NFL QBs that you would consider minimum thresholds for Jackson?

Newton, Wilson, Ryan would be the min threshold for me

[paraven]

30 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

There have been 38 TEs taken in the first three rounds since 2010.  Of those 38, I believe only two (Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski) hit your 700/8 mark.    If you scale it down to the 750/6, I believe three (Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce) would hit that qualifier.  Basically, you're saying that he has to be an elite TE in order for that to be a worthy pick.

if what your saying is true, then yes that is exactly what im saying

[CWood21]

1(23) - Isaiah Wynn [OG/OT; Georgia]
1(31) - Sony Michel [RB; Georgia]
2(56) - Duke Dawson [CB; Florida]
5(143) - Ja'Whaun Bentley [LB; Purdue]
6(178) - Christian Sam [LB; Arizona State]
6(210) - Christian Berrios [WR; Miami (FL)]
7(219) - Danny Etling [QB; LSU]
7(243) - Keion Crossen [CB; West Carolina]
7(250) - Ryan Izzo [TE; Florida State]

It seems year after year, the Patriots get less value out of their draft picks and despite that lack of production they still manage to win their division and contender for an NFL Championship.  After acquiring Brandin Cooks last offseason from the Saints, they turned around and flipped him to the Rams for a first round pick.  Armed with two first round picks, there were rumors in the week leading up to the draft that the Patriots were exploring moving up to select their QBOTF after trading Jimmy Garappolo to the 49ers as part of a deadline deal.  With their first pick, they drafted Isaiah Wynn out of Georgia who was my #2 ranked OL behind Quenton Nelson.  There were questions whether or not he was a tackle or a guard, but he's the best available OL when the Patriots picked and will help try and fill the hole that was left when Nate Solder signed with the Giants.  With their other first round pick, they selected one of the Georgia backs in Sony Michel.  I like Michel, but the value just isn't there for me and I don't envision him being a feature back which really hurts the value of this pick.  Armed with a semi-high 2nd round pick, they moved back with the Lions for a fourth round pick and eventually dealt out of that round all together getting the Bears' 19 2nd round pick as part of the Anthony Miller trade.  Still, they had another 2nd round pick to make and selected slot corner in Duke Dawson.  Selecting Dawson this high was a tad high for my liking, but not bad value by any means and probably in the range where his tier was going to go.    The Bentley selection was a bit of a head scratcher as he doesn't really seem to fit into today's NFL where there's a premium put on a ability to play in space.  In terms of his ability to play against the run, he's going to be a strength in that regard but his issues in coverage are going to be exposed by any half decent OC.  Between the two LBs the Patriots drafted, I think Christian Sam is more likely to be a potential starter down the road because I believe he can hold up better in coverage than Bentley.  Christian Berrios figures to be a potential fit in the slot as an eventual replacement for Julian Edelman.  Quite frankly, I'm not sure what the Patriots saw in Danny Etling that indicated he was a priority UDFA let alone draftable.  Keion Crossen in the 7th round isn't bad value if you're trying to find a return man, but expecting much more than that out of him probably isn't going to happen.  I didn't have a draftable grade on Ryan Izzo either, so I'm not really sure what the Patriots saw out of him.  Overall, the Patriots draft was underwhelming.  Armed with four picks in the top 64, the idea that the Patriots could move up to select their QBOTF seemed tantalizing but ultimately the Patriots stuck to their draft process and continued to move down and amass more picks.  Overall, I'm not sure this draft bucks their recent trend of unsuccessful drafts but the Patriots had one of the more interesting drafts.

Best Value Pick: Isaiah Wynn [OG/OG; Georgia]
Worst Value Pick: Sony Michel [RB; Georgia]
Grade: C-

[diamondbull424]

6 minutes ago, paraven said:

Newton, Wilson, Ryan would be the min threshold for me

Cool. This fits my “success” threshold for the most part.

At least 3500 yds passing, roughly 25 TDs, and at least 3 pro bowls. Though each of these guys have at least made it to a Super Bowl as well.

I can accept this. Now for serviceable would you agree that Joe Flacco’s first 5 years were serviceable or no?

[diamondbull424]

53 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I'm not sure there's really a single stat that says he's a success.  I consider him a success if the Ravens don't feel the need to improve and/or actively looking to improve upon him.  I know that doesn't really answer your question, but I don't think you can use any single stat and say above this line he's a success, but below it he isn't.

Well similarly, minimum threshold QBs/career currently in the NFL for him to be viewed as a success?

[paraven]

3 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

Cool. This fits my “success” threshold for the most part.

At least 3500 yds passing, roughly 25 TDs, and at least 3 pro bowls. Though each of these guys have at least made it to a Super Bowl as well.

I can accept this. Now for serviceable would you agree that Joe Flacco’s first 5 years were serviceable or no?

yes, with same post season success

[CWood21]

@Deadpulse @dhunt2402 @DoleINGout @Pats#1 @1ForTheThumb @I_GET_SAX @PatriotsWin! @SBLIII @DaPatsKid98 @CP3MVP @bluemushrooms @Hunter2_1 @Spooky @Yin-Yang @The Third Rider @Donut @mission27 @goldfishwars @hollywood14 @Elky @nextsuperstar1 @Nex_Gen

[CWood21]

3 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

Well similarly, minimum threshold QBs/career currently in the NFL for him to be viewed as a success?

Given where he was drafted, I'd want to see late-SF Alex Smith or Tyrod Taylor to be a "success".

[diamondbull424]

7 minutes ago, paraven said:

yes, with same post season success

 

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Given where he was drafted, I'd want to see late-SF Alex Smith or Tyrod Taylor to be a "success".

Cool. I understand a difference of opinion, but I at least needed to extract this out of you because I know how some naysayers can be. A player hits one milestone and suddenly it’s not enough. They allow their hate to overwhelm their ability to be objective about a player and his success. So especially when objectively grading players. In the future, if LJ8 hits those qualifications, he’s a success no other arguments needed. If he does not, he is not a success.

For my purposes I’ve already outlined what I believe a success to be, but I will restate:

Success- 3 probowls, 3500+ passing yards avg, 25+ total TDs, and 3 postseason wins.

Serviceable- 2 probowls or Super Bowl MVP, 3700 average total yds, and 20+ total.

[Soko]

@CWood21

Thanks for the write up. 

Cant say I disagree with anything you said - Izzo and Crossen are essentially special teamers/PS guys at best. Not sure why they bothered with Etling...Didn’t mind Dawson there. Wynn we’re in agreement on. Bentley and Sam add some youth a shallow LB group.

I like Michel for what NE likes to do. They have a bruiser on the roster (Hill), a gasher (Gillislee), a pure receiver (White), and a do-it-all in Burkhead. Can’t argue that the value isn’t great, but won’t conplain about Belichick getting a player he likes at a spot. 

 

[Broncofan]

16 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

@CWood21

Thanks for the write up. 

Cant say I disagree with anything you said - Izzo and Crossen are essentially special teamers/PS guys at best. Not sure why they bothered with Etling...Didn’t mind Dawson there. Wynn we’re in agreement on. Bentley and Sam add some youth a shallow LB group.

I like Michel for what NE likes to do. They have a bruiser on the roster (Hill), a gasher (Gillislee), a pure receiver (White), and a do-it-all in Burkhead. Can’t argue that the value isn’t great, but won’t conplain about Belichick getting a player he likes at a spot. 

 

If NE uses Michel just as a piece to that RB puzzle it’s pretty bad value though esp compared to the non-RB who were there.  

If BB wants to use Michel as the alpha in that group (60+ percent between the 20’s and the big RZ weapon) then it’s justifiable given the major difference in $ the 31 pick makes compared to top 10 guys.   I mentioned this in another Forum but it’s basically a 4 year 9.75M deal with an option that’s not guaranteed for around 5.6M for the 5th year (subject to cap top 10 RB inflation).   It’s not bad for a complementary RB but there’s very little gain in value vs.  getting a good (or better) CB / OL / DL.  But if they have bigger things in mind than just a complementary role the value starts to become justifiable.    Given BB & co. are well aware of this it wouldn’t surprise me to see them using Michel by 2019 in a more dominant role than we’ve come to expect.   

[Soko]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

If NE uses Michel just as a piece to that RB puzzle it’s pretty bad value though esp compared to the non-RB who were there.  

If BB wants to use Michel as the alpha in that group (60+ percent between the 20’s and the big RZ weapon) then it’s justifiable given the major difference in $ the 31 pick makes compared to top 10 guys.   I mentioned this in another Forum but it’s basically a 4 year 9.75M deal with an option that’s not guaranteed for around 5.6M for the 5th year (subject to cap top 10 RB inflation).   It’s not bad for a complementary RB but there’s very little gain in value vs.  getting a good (or better) CB / OL / DL.  But if they have bigger things in mind than just a complementary role the value starts to become justifiable.    Given BB & co. are well aware of this it wouldn’t surprise me to see them using Michel by 2019 in a more dominant role than we’ve come to expect.   

I don’t think it’ll be a committee with carries. Third down/passing downs, definitely. Short yardage, still early, but I’d imagine Burkhead gets head duties to start since he was good there last year.

I brought up the group to highlight that it’s diverse but unspectacular on it’s own. Lewis was the guy last year and I expect Michel to do much of the same. 

EDIT: FWIW, I wouldn’t have been mad with a plethora of other players there either. Including guys like Hernandez, Landry, Jackson (Josh), Reid, etc. I agree it’s nkt a great value pick but I also don’t think Belichick really gives a hoot about how the league perceives the value of a position. He’ll take who he wants/is the best player on the board. 

 

[DoleINGout]

@CWood21 I tend to agree with you criticisms and pessimistic outlook on the Patriots 2018 draft class. I thought the idea to trade up for Baker Mayfield was shooting the gun a bit. Yeah he may have fit their system but what do you do with a guy who you give up two first round picks this year and Rob Gronkowski to get while still having Tom Brady on the roster being paid $15 million? Maybe they would bench Brady at some point in favor of Baker Mayfield and force Brady to be so disgruntled he demands a trade or retires. Or maybr Brady would have been so enraged by the whole draft process that he wouldn't be able to concentrate clearly while playing and struggle as the starter in 2018 anyways leading to a lm early benching and then subsequent trade. Whatever the scenario, had Baker Mayfield been the pick, the Patriots would be contending for a wildcard spot more than likely in 2018. Instead, they have to stick with their draft picks and compete with what they've got.

I view their 2018 draft as basically a refueling of the gas tank. They found the closest comparison players in the draft to the free agents they lost and planned for the future by acquire picks in next years draft. Ultimately, this would appear to be the more rational approach to the Patriots competitive future. This season, the Patriots are still Super Bowl contenders. They have luckily been able to add a strong offensive lineman in the first round to solidfy their left guard position, (Isaiah Wynn), and spot start at left tackle whenever necessary. This pick is safe and best available for where they picked; especially resourceful in light of the release of 2017 eighty-fifth overall selection Antonio Garcia at left tackle with blood clots in his lungs as well as fluctuating weight issues.

The rest of the day one and two picks made are essentially SEC proven starters who translate athletically directly to the NFL. Michel assumes much of the responsbilities left void by the departure of Dion Lewis. Duke Dawson is an excellent Malcolm Butler replacement with a similar nastiness and competitiveness as a tackler. I saw their other corner draft, Keion Crossen, as a developmental corner that will stick as an end of roster bubble guy. Crossen should seize his opportunity to be a dimeback and potential spot return man using his elite athleticism scores. Long term, I'm not sure Crossen can develop into a starter in time for the Patriots to use him but I think he is primed for a role similar to Jonathan Jones'.

Both linebackers are inteiguing depth pieces. Bentley strikes me a glue guy with a good leadership presence. Sam is more of an athletic player but both should make the team and contribute in their rookie season as backups. Neither projects long term to an impact player in my opinion, but Sam could become a good rotational player and Bentley a journeyman reserve.

Braxton Berrios is a slot guy but his opportunities will be limited early in training camp if Julian Edelman is healthy. I like his ability to snag the ball at a high point but his overall route running needs refinement. Ryan Izzo is a competitor that makes it as a oractice squad member for some team. More than likely nothing is really expected of him.

 

The Patriots will be fine for now with their division being so young and uncompetitive compared to the others. However, I really think the Jets are making progress as an organization and the future looks bright with Sam Darnold. The Bills could be very competitive in another few years as Josh Allen has a lot of talent to go along with his enthusiasm as a member of the Buffalo Bills. For 2018, the Miami Dolphins present the strongest competition for the Patriots as they return with a young, underrated defense to pair with a recovering Ryan Tannehill behind a repaired offensive line in Adam Gase's retooled spread offense. Ultimately, once Brady and Gronkowski return the Patriots in mandatory activities, the wheel should keep turning as slick as before the drama started in the media. Beyond 2018, I'm not sure what the future holds but right now, the Jets could be in position to breakeven in the division as soon as 2019.

[onejayhawk]

On 4/29/2018 at 5:39 PM, CWood21 said:

Patriots

1(23) - Isaiah Wynn [OG/OT; Georgia]
1(31) - Sony Michel [RB; Georgia]
2(56) - Duke Dawson [CB; Florida]
5(143) - Ja'Whaun Bentley [LB; Purdue]
6(178) - Christian Sam [LB; Arizona State]
6(210) - Christian Berrios [WR; Miami (FL)]
7(219) - Danny Etling [QB; LSU]
7(243) - Keion Crossen [CB; West Carolina]
7(250) - Ryan Izzo [TE; Florida State]

It seems year after year, the Patriots get less value out of their draft picks and despite that lack of production they still manage to win their division and contender for an NFL Championship.  After acquiring Brandin Cooks last offseason from the Saints, they turned around and flipped him to the Rams for a first round pick.  Armed with two first round picks, there were rumors in the week leading up to the draft that the Patriots were exploring moving up to select their QBOTF after trading Jimmy Garappolo to the 49ers as part of a deadline deal.  With their first pick, they drafted Isaiah Wynn out of Georgia who was my #2 ranked OL behind Quenton Nelson.  There were questions whether or not he was a tackle or a guard, but he's the best available OL when the Patriots picked and will help try and fill the hole that was left when Nate Solder signed with the Giants.  With their other first round pick, they selected one of the Georgia backs in Sony Michel.  I like Michel, but the value just isn't there for me and I don't envision him being a feature back which really hurts the value of this pick.  Armed with a semi-high 2nd round pick, they moved back with the Lions for a fourth round pick and eventually dealt out of that round all together getting the Bears' 19 2nd round pick as part of the Anthony Miller trade.  Still, they had another 2nd round pick to make and selected slot corner in Duke Dawson.  Selecting Dawson this high was a tad high for my liking, but not bad value by any means and probably in the range where his tier was going to go.    The Bentley selection was a bit of a head scratcher as he doesn't really seem to fit into today's NFL where there's a premium put on a ability to play in space.  In terms of his ability to play against the run, he's going to be a strength in that regard but his issues in coverage are going to be exposed by any half decent OC.  Between the two LBs the Patriots drafted, I think Christian Sam is more likely to be a potential starter down the road because I believe he can hold up better in coverage than Bentley. IMOChristian Berrios figures to be a potential fit in the slot as an eventual replacement for Julian Edelman.  Quite frankly, I'm not sure what the Patriots saw in Danny Etling that indicated he was a priority UDFA let alone draftable.  Keion Crossen in the 7th round isn't bad value if you're trying to find a return man, but expecting much more than that out of him probably isn't going to happen.  I didn't have a draftable grade on Ryan Izzo either, so I'm not really sure what the Patriots saw out of him.  Overall, the Patriots draft was underwhelming.  Armed with four picks in the top 64, the idea that the Patriots could move up to select their QBOTF seemed tantalizing but ultimately the Patriots stuck to their draft process and continued to move down and amass more picks.  Overall, I'm not sure this draft bucks their recent trend of unsuccessful drafts but the Patriots had one of the more interesting drafts.

Best Value Pick: Isaiah Wynn [OG/OG; Georgia]
Worst Value Pick: Sony Michel [RB; Georgia]
Grade: C-
 

 

Year after year the Patriots find value where other teams are not looking. Wynn is a case in point. Many see him as a tweener with no position. The Pats probably see him as covering two potential holes. Also, more than most teams, they will draft a player for a role. So, they might take a LB in the 5th round who might only play 15 snaps, but excels in a small role. If Michel had a clean bill of health, he would have rated a mid first-round pick. The Pats got him at the end of the round because he is basically a rental. He should be a stud for 2-3 years. That does not make him a bad value.

IMO the Ravens rate top 10, comparable to the Bears. In particular, I do not see how anyone can fault them for landing Lamar Jackson so cheaply. With 4 QB gone by pick #10, the shock is that the Raven did not pull the trigger at #25. #32 is classic Ozzie perfect timing. Leave that aside, the rest of the haul rocks as well. Hurst and Andrews, Averett and Elliot, Scott and Lasley, Orlando Brown, Senat and Bozemn. Over and over, two or three shots at a weak spot in the depth chart. Half these guys won't see 2020. The other half will mostly see starting snaps. Even if you think Jackson is a reach, he's a cheap one.

The rest of this is ore for the smelter. Surely at least a B+

J