CW21's 2018 NFL Draft Review (Browns Up)

[CWood21]

1(1) - Baker Mayfield [QB; Oklahoma]
1(4) - Denzel Ward [CB; Ohio State]
2(33) - Austin Corbett [OG/C; Nevada]
2(35) - Nick Chubb [RB; Georgia]
3(67) - Chad Thomas [DE; Miami (FL)]
4(105) - Antonio Calloway [WR; Florida]
5(150) - Genard Avery [LB; Memphis]
6(175) - Damion Ratley [WR; Texas A&M]
6(188) - Simeon Thomas [CB; Louisiana-Lafayette]

Leading up to the draft, there were a LOT of rumblings about what direction would the Browns take.  Would they draft arguably the Best Player Available in Saquon Barkley and then select their QBOTF at 4?  Would they pair their first round pick last year with another top pass rusher in Bradley Chubb?  In the weeks before the draft, Sam Darnold was the leader in the clubhouse for who the Browns would prefer at QB, but rumblings that the Browns like Baker Mayfield and even Josh Allen more than Darnold.  Instead, the Browns shocked most of the NFL world by selecting the polarizing Baker Mayfield.  By far the most productive of the QBs in this year's draft, he's not your traditional QB prospect as he's a bit shorter than your traditional QB and didn't play in a pro-style offense but his off-the-charts intangibles and his charisma won the Browns front office over.  After selecting their franchise QB first overall, the Browns had the option to take Bradley Chubb who many had as the top ranked player in the draft.  They took Denzel Ward who was by most viewed as the top ranked CB, but some viewed as a reach and felt was more in that 8-12 range.  In the second round, they reinforced the loss on the offensive line of Joe Thomas to retirement with Austin Corbett.  I personally like him more on the interior OL, but I believe they plan on playing him at LT.  Either way, he's not a real sexy OL prospect but he should be a high value lineman and play well for the Browns.  Instead of taking Saquon Barkley first overall, the Browns opted to wait until the second round and selected Nick Chubb.  Had it not been for his injury, Chubb likely would have been a first round pick and probably an early first round pick at that.  Instead, he got hurt and split reps with Sony Michel and fell into the second round.  The Browns added more depth to the defensive line by selecting Chad Thomas.  While he lacks any real legitimate upside, he should be able to add some valuable reps to the DL and add more depth.  In the fourth round, they took the incredibly talented Antonio Callaway despite his character concerns.  Based on his talent, we are probably talking about a first round talent here but the character issues knocked him into Day 3 of the draft.  Gernard Avery is an undersized pass rusher who should add more depth to the Browns LB corps.  I'm not sure he's much more than a situational player at the next level, but not a bad gamble to make.  Damion Ratley is an interesting guy as he really only produced for one season, and he's got the size/speed ratio that make teams take a chance on him.  Probably doesn't develop anything but there are worst gambles to make.  Don't really have a whole lot on Simeon Thomas, but he'll likely move to safety.  Overall, I think the Browns had a really good draft and I think they got a LOT of bad responses.  They stuck to their draft board and it'll be interesting to see how their board stacked up compared to the traditional board.

Best Value Pick: Antonio Callaway [WR; Florida]
Worst Value Pick: Chad Thomas [DE; Florida]
Grade: B

[CWood21]

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[Thomas5737]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Best Value Pick: Antonio Callaway [WR; Florida]
Worst Value Pick: Chad Thomas [DE; Florida]
Grade: B

B seems fair. They didn't draft for a high score from the mainstream (Darnold/Barkley/Chubb) but if I had my choice with no trade back option I would have went Mayfield/Ward so I would probably give them an A on that alone if I thought my opinion was always right.

The opinion that we passed on (arguably) the best pick in the draft at one in Barkley and then passing on the best pick in the draft (as chosen by many) at 4 in Chubb makes it seem like there were too many best picks in the draft though.

I personally give an A+ because they didn't draft Allen who may end up good but has a bad resume and wouldn't be worth the risk high in the 1st round.

[ReggieCamp]

That’s a good write-up, @CWood21. I personally would’ve taken Darnold over Mayfield. Hated the Corbett and Chad Thomas picks. Loved the Chubb and Callaway picks. I’m cool with taking Ward at #4, but I would’ve taken Bradley Chubb. That would’ve given us a double Chubb.

It all hinges on Mayfield. If he’s a franchise QB, then we’re on our way. If not, more suckitude.

[candyman93]

2 hours ago, ReggieCamp said:

That’s a good write-up, @CWood21. I personally would’ve taken Darnold over Mayfield. Hated the Corbett and Chad Thomas picks. Loved the Chubb and Callaway picks. I’m cool with taking Ward at #4, but I would’ve taken Bradley Chubb. That would’ve given us a double Chubb.

It all hinges on Mayfield. If he’s a franchise QB, then we’re on our way. If not, more suckitude.

The only thing I disagree with is Denzel Ward. I loved that pick.

[Thomas5737]

41 minutes ago, candyman93 said:

The only thing I disagree with is Denzel Ward. I loved that pick.

Me too. I probably factor need more than most on these forums though. Ward over whoever should be a significant improvement. Chubb over Ogbah would probably be minimum to no increase because I really think Ogbah is darn good at what he does.

[wackywabbit]

On 6/16/2018 at 3:41 PM, CWood21 said:

At the end of the day, this draft is going to be heavily influenced by Sam Darnold.  IF Darnold turns out to be a franchise QB, nobody will care that the Jets traded 3 second round picks to move up and select him.  IF the Darnold flops, they'll be discussing the players they could have had if they hadn't traded all those picks to the Colts.

Best Value Pick: Sam Darnold [QB; USC]

This line of thinking is in consistent with how you were knocking Lamar Jackson as the worst value pick. There was no value here. They paid full price and more.

The number 6 overall, and 3 seconds (2 of them likely near the top) would have been an overpay by draft value for the #1 overall pick, and by the more modern draft charts a massive overpay for any pick in the draft. Which means that they were paying for a rare elite QB prospect.

They could have gotten Josh Allen or Rosen at 6 and kept those 3 valuable picks, so a heavily-inflated ranking of Darnold as a prospect relative to those 2 is baked into the price.

[BleedTheClock]

On 4/29/2018 at 6:39 PM, CWood21 said:

 

1(1) - Baker Mayfield [QB; Oklahoma]
1(4) - Denzel Ward [CB; Ohio State]
2(33) - Austin Corbett [OG/C; Nevada]
2(35) - Nick Chubb [RB; Georgia]
3(67) - Chad Thomas [DE; Miami (FL)]
4(105) - Antonio Calloway [WR; Florida]
5(150) - Genard Avery [LB; Memphis]
6(175) - Damion Ratley [WR; Texas A&M]
6(188) - Simeon Thomas [CB; Louisiana-Lafayette]

Leading up to the draft, there were a LOT of rumblings about what direction would the Browns take.  Would they draft arguably the Best Player Available in Saquon Barkley and then select their QBOTF at 4?  Would they pair their first round pick last year with another top pass rusher in Bradley Chubb?  In the weeks before the draft, Sam Darnold was the leader in the clubhouse for who the Browns would prefer at QB, but rumblings that the Browns like Baker Mayfield and even Josh Allen more than Darnold.  Instead, the Browns shocked most of the NFL world by selecting the polarizing Baker Mayfield.  By far the most productive of the QBs in this year's draft, he's not your traditional QB prospect as he's a bit shorter than your traditional QB and didn't play in a pro-style offense but his off-the-charts intangibles and his charisma won the Browns front office over.  After selecting their franchise QB first overall, the Browns had the option to take Bradley Chubb who many had as the top ranked player in the draft.  They took Denzel Ward who was by most viewed as the top ranked CB, but some viewed as a reach and felt was more in that 8-12 range.  In the second round, they reinforced the loss on the offensive line of Joe Thomas to retirement with Austin Corbett.  I personally like him more on the interior OL, but I believe they plan on playing him at LT.  Either way, he's not a real sexy OL prospect but he should be a high value lineman and play well for the Browns.  Instead of taking Saquon Barkley first overall, the Browns opted to wait until the second round and selected Nick Chubb.  Had it not been for his injury, Chubb likely would have been a first round pick and probably an early first round pick at that.  Instead, he got hurt and split reps with Sony Michel and fell into the second round.  The Browns added more depth to the defensive line by selecting Chad Thomas.  While he lacks any real legitimate upside, he should be able to add some valuable reps to the DL and add more depth.  In the fourth round, they took the incredibly talented Antonio Callaway despite his character concerns.  Based on his talent, we are probably talking about a first round talent here but the character issues knocked him into Day 3 of the draft.  Gernard Avery is an undersized pass rusher who should add more depth to the Browns LB corps.  I'm not sure he's much more than a situational player at the next level, but not a bad gamble to make.  Damion Ratley is an interesting guy as he really only produced for one season, and he's got the size/speed ratio that make teams take a chance on him.  Probably doesn't develop anything but there are worst gambles to make.  Don't really have a whole lot on Simeon Thomas, but he'll likely move to safety.  Overall, I think the Browns had a really good draft and I think they got a LOT of bad responses.  They stuck to their draft board and it'll be interesting to see how their board stacked up compared to the traditional board.

Best Value Pick: Antonio Callaway [WR; Florida]
Worst Value Pick: Chad Thomas [DE; Florida]
Grade: B

Good write-up. I was of the opinion that there were 4 excellent QB prospects in this draft. I would have probably taken Darnold #1, but I'm thrilled with Baker too. I don't think we could have really made a terrible QB pick at #1, as I'm one of the rare Josh Allen supporters. Baker was an A selection for me. Denzel Ward was one of the 4 players I gave elite grades to in this draft. He's an absolutely elite corner in my opinion. Great pick, especially because we passed on the overrated Chubb. We already have two really good young DE's. While you can really never have enough great pass rushers, I don't think Chubb is a great pass rusher PLUS we had a hilariously gaping hole at CB. Ward was an A+ pick for me. Corbett was someone I didn't really evaluate. I was kind of salty we tried to replace Joe Thomas in such a poor OT draft, but after watching some Corbett tape, he looks like a solid NFL starter at 4-5 positions. C+ pick for me. Chubb is a stud. I'd give that pick an A. Chad Thomas is overrated, but he's a perfect fit to play DT in Gregg Williams' blitz-heavy stunting scheme. Still, I thought it was a reach as I don't ever think he becomes a full-time starter. Overall, a C- selection to me. Antonio Callaway is an A+ with a giant asterisk next to his name. He's unbelievably talented, but ever dumber than he is talented. I'm giving that pick an A+ for now, but it could easily blow up in our faces. Genard Avery is exactly what we needed. A linebacker that can play multiple positions, as we previously had ZERO depth before signing Mychal Kendricks. B+ pick. Damion Ratley looks like a great fit as a late round developmental WR. He's going to be 1-1 every time he's on the field and he's more than capable of winning those battles. With Gordon, Landry, Njoku, Callaway, and Coleman drawing the bulk of the coverage, Ratley will be the forgotten man. I don't think he'll ever be a starting WR, but he's a guy that can come in as the #4 WR and rip the top off of a defense. I'd give the selection a B. Simeon Thomas is a complete unknown. I'd be a homer to not give it an F, but who knows? I literally have no good or bad tape to make an assessment on the guy.

I'd give this draft an A/A-. I loved everything other than the Chad Thomas and Austin Corbett selections. I don't think those guys will be busts, but they seemed like reaches.

 

I would have the same best & worst value pick that you had.

[DawgX]

B sounds about right. I preferred Darnold, but was a big Mayfield fan as well. I liked Ward at #4, even if he was a slight reach. I didn't view Bradley Chubb as being a far superior prospect than Ward, and a #1 CB was a far greater need for us than a DE when we already have Garrett and Ogbah.

I'm pretty meh on the Corbett pick. I would have been cool going into the year with Coleman at LT, and that still may ultimately be the case. If Coleman starts at LT, then Corbett feels like a wasted pick unless they put him in at center or something to replace Tretter, who's pretty mediocre. Chubb was another good pick, and felt like the right spot to take a RB.

I don't think anyone in the Browns forum cares for the Chad Thomas pick. Hopefully he can become a solid rotational end, but we'll see.

Calloway is worth the risk in the fourth round. If he can stay out of trouble, then he could end up being a steal. If he doesn't work out, then it's not a huge loss since it's only a fourth round pick.

I do like Avery as a rotational LB. Not sure how much playing time he'll see this year with four talented LBs in front of him.

The other two picks are okay, I guess. Won't be shocked if neither of them make the team.

Ultimately it comes down to Mayfield. If he becomes a franchise QB, then it's a great draft. If he busts, then it's another failure.

[onejayhawk]

Cleveland had so many picks, that it would be difficult to have a bad draft. On the basis of talent acquired, B is too conservative. On the basis of value for return, C+. On balance I can deal with B. 

I cannot agree with DawgX. It does not come down to Mayfield. Granted, if he's another Tim Couch, it hurts. What Mayfield is not is another Johnny Manziel (or Jamarcus Russell). The hope is that he's not another Sam Bradford. There's a very real chance that Mayfield can play buy not stay on the field. Cleveland has seen that movie too--Bernie Kosar.

J

[MWil23]

On 6/30/2018 at 2:09 PM, CWood21 said:

1(1) - Baker Mayfield [QB; Oklahoma]
1(4) - Denzel Ward [CB; Ohio State]
2(33) - Austin Corbett [OG/C; Nevada]
2(35) - Nick Chubb [RB; Georgia]
3(67) - Chad Thomas [DE; Miami (FL)]
4(105) - Antonio Calloway [WR; Florida]
5(150) - Genard Avery [LB; Memphis]
6(175) - Damion Ratley [WR; Texas A&M]
6(188) - Simeon Thomas [CB; Louisiana-Lafayette]

Leading up to the draft, there were a LOT of rumblings about what direction would the Browns take.  Would they draft arguably the Best Player Available in Saquon Barkley and then select their QBOTF at 4?  Would they pair their first round pick last year with another top pass rusher in Bradley Chubb?  In the weeks before the draft, Sam Darnold was the leader in the clubhouse for who the Browns would prefer at QB, but rumblings that the Browns like Baker Mayfield and even Josh Allen more than Darnold.  Instead, the Browns shocked most of the NFL world by selecting the polarizing Baker Mayfield.  By far the most productive of the QBs in this year's draft, he's not your traditional QB prospect as he's a bit shorter than your traditional QB and didn't play in a pro-style offense but his off-the-charts intangibles and his charisma won the Browns front office over.  After selecting their franchise QB first overall, the Browns had the option to take Bradley Chubb who many had as the top ranked player in the draft.  They took Denzel Ward who was by most viewed as the top ranked CB, but some viewed as a reach and felt was more in that 8-12 range.  In the second round, they reinforced the loss on the offensive line of Joe Thomas to retirement with Austin Corbett.  I personally like him more on the interior OL, but I believe they plan on playing him at LT.  Either way, he's not a real sexy OL prospect but he should be a high value lineman and play well for the Browns.  Instead of taking Saquon Barkley first overall, the Browns opted to wait until the second round and selected Nick Chubb.  Had it not been for his injury, Chubb likely would have been a first round pick and probably an early first round pick at that.  Instead, he got hurt and split reps with Sony Michel and fell into the second round.  The Browns added more depth to the defensive line by selecting Chad Thomas.  While he lacks any real legitimate upside, he should be able to add some valuable reps to the DL and add more depth.  In the fourth round, they took the incredibly talented Antonio Callaway despite his character concerns.  Based on his talent, we are probably talking about a first round talent here but the character issues knocked him into Day 3 of the draft.  Gernard Avery is an undersized pass rusher who should add more depth to the Browns LB corps.  I'm not sure he's much more than a situational player at the next level, but not a bad gamble to make.  Damion Ratley is an interesting guy as he really only produced for one season, and he's got the size/speed ratio that make teams take a chance on him.  Probably doesn't develop anything but there are worst gambles to make.  Don't really have a whole lot on Simeon Thomas, but he'll likely move to safety.  Overall, I think the Browns had a really good draft and I think they got a LOT of bad responses.  They stuck to their draft board and it'll be interesting to see how their board stacked up compared to the traditional board.

Best Value Pick: Antonio Callaway [WR; Florida]
Worst Value Pick: Chad Thomas [DE; Florida]
Grade: B

Thanks for your effort on the write-up. Chad Thomas is from the U, not Florida.

As a Browns fan, I think it boils down to how you feel about the QB. Obviously I know what you think of Baker. I had him as my 3rd best QB in the entire draft behind Darnold and Rosen. If he ends up being the 3rd best QB in the draft behind those two guys, then it's a colossal mistake and a blown draft pick that could negatively alter the entire course/trajectory of the franchise and end up as the Browns trying to be the smartest guys in the room again. They went with a polarizing QB with inferior physical measurables, age, and off the field issue(s)/incidents and went with intangibles/leadership. They admittedly took Mayfield above Darnold, who was their higher ranked QB based off of film study.

Quote

 

On Monday, Browns V.P. of player personnel Alonzo Highsmith explained that Sam Darnold, who eventually went to the Jets at No. 3, was originally atop his personal quarterback draft board. So how did Cleveland end up on Mayfield?

"Here's the honest to God's truth," Highsmith told fans at the Hall of Fame Luncheon Club, via the Canton Repository's Steve Doerschuk . "From the start of this college football season to the end of the season, I had Darnold No. 1 and Baker No. 2, (Josh) Rosen No. 3, (Lamar) Jackson No. 4 and (Josh) Allen after that. On our way through everything, you couldn't tell me Darnold wasn't the best. I did all my evaluations of the season.

"Then comes the part where you meet them off the field. You watch their workouts. You watch everything. And Baker blew me away. Highly, highly intelligent. Highly competitive. And he had a trait that some of the good ones have. I call it efficacy. That includes the power to affect other people. I thought that of all the quarterbacks I watched, he stood out far and above the other guys. When he walked into a room, you knew he was there."

 

As for Ward, they desperately needed a lockdown CB#1 and got the best one in the draft. They already have Garrett and Ogbah, so I wasn't the least bit surprised that the Browns passed on Chubb and went with Ward, who Denver has admittedly said that if the Browns took Chubb, they were probably drafting Ward.

The Corbett pick was a bit of a surprise, and my bet is that they're hoping in 2019 he's able to be a starting caliber LT, depending on how Shonn Coleman plays this year.

I like Nick Chubb, but I preferred Guice. I was pretty happy with this pick though.

The Chad Thomas pick was also another that I despised. If he ends up being what they want him to be, which is a good interior pass rusher, then it will work out, but he's a kid at the U who had a 5 star talent and really didn't put it together in terms of production, except for when he moved inside in pass rushing situations. I preferred to go with a Jerome Baker/Sam Hubbard there, but if it works out, I won't care. Hubbard is versatile as a DE or OLB, very smart, and an underrated athlete. Baker looked like a 1st round lock in 2016 and had a very disappointing 2017 in terms of consistency and pass coverage, so grabbing a guy like that in the 3rd would have made me happy.

The Calloway pick was 100% obvious to anyone who has followed Dorsey. He was basically the Browns version of Tyreke Hill, who Dorsey drafted in K.C.

Simeon Thomas is another troubled kid who has gotten in a lot of legal trouble...he will also be almost 25 by the time the season starts. Ratley and Avery are physically impressive projects late in the draft, so we'll see what happens there.

[candyman93]

I keep reading that Denzel Ward has been impressive.

[onejayhawk]

What have you got against the NFC South and AFC West? Only one of the eight teams are done so far.

J

 

[Calvert28]

On 7/8/2018 at 7:15 AM, candyman93 said:

I keep reading that Denzel Ward has been impressive.

He should be. He IMO was arguably the best defensive talent in this draft. 

[Ward4HOF]

On 5/6/2018 at 3:01 PM, CWood21 said:

Let me start off with the first part.  Yes, I'd take Josh Allen over Mason Rudolph in a heartbeat and I wouldn't think even twice about it.  In terms of tools, Allen is considered more tooled up than Rudolph.  Add on that Rudolph's accuracy in the short-to-intermediate game leaves a LOT to be desired and definitely masqueraded by the offense that he played in Stillwater.  Add on Allen's experience in a pro-style offensive system, and I think there's very few people who felt that Rudolph was a better prospect than Allen.  It certainly wasn't close for me, and I wasn't even a Josh Allen fan.  I believe I had a 5th round grade on him.  I think you're kidding yourself if you think Rudolph is as accurate as the numbers indicate.  And don't forget that Rudolph had considerably better offensive weapons around him.

As for Day 2 QBs, there's been a ton of studies.  You can Google it if you want, just search for it and you'll find multiple links.

https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/6/28/15880748/success-rates-of-drafted-quarterbacks

That's just one blog discussing it.  Look at the success rate of QBs taken in the top 16, that's 81%.  Then compare it to those taken in the 3rd round, which is 25%.  That's a DRASTIC difference.  Nobody is saying that you can't find a quality QB on the second day or that you'll get a bust in the first.  The argument is that you're pulling on a very thin chance of finding one.  From 2013 to 2015, there were 6 QBs taken on Day 2.  Only two of them are viable starting QBs, and I'd make the argument that if Carr had a different last name he would have gone in the first round.  That's a success rate of 33%.  Let's expand to look at the Day 2 QBs taken from 2010 to 2015.  There were 14 QBs taken in that range. Of those 14, only 4 are slated to be their teams' starting QB which amounts to a success rate of 29%.  That's NOT very good success rate.  Let's go from 2005 to 2015 now.  There were 29 QBs taken on Day 2 over that period.  Of those 29, only four are currently slated to be starting QBs.  Of those 29, only FOUR had cAV north of 30.  That's a success rate of 14%.  That's miserable.  You want to point to the exceptions in Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, etc.  I'm going to point the three or four busts that surround them.  If you want to believe that Mason Rudolph is going to be the exception, go right ahead.  But don't be surprised when people disagree with you.

There is SOO much wrong with this analysis, it's not even funny.

First off, you are completely ignoring 48 selections between 17 and 64 by quoting Top 16 and 3rd Rd QB success rates...can I cherry pick, too? Here...I'll add them in for you.  That would be a 65% success rate for picks 17-32, and 48% for 2nd Rd QBs.

Secondly, you just admitted that you had a 5th Rd grade on a QB selected 7th overall, that was traded up for with picks 53 and 56, which turned into 63 and 117...

So, Josh Allen is worth Vita Vea, MJ Stewart, Carlton Davis, and Jordan Whitehead?

But my favorite is trying to ignore the draft changes in 2008, and then again in 2010, when in 2008, it pushed Rd 3 to the final day, and 2010, was the first year that a 3rd day was added...so yeah, I bet the stats don't look so hot between day 1 and day 2 QBs between 2005 and 2009...when Day 2 meant Rds 4-7, or 3-7, during those years...priceless...

And then, you try to pass-off Carr's success because he was 'supposed' to be a 1st Rd pick but his name derailed him?

And what about LOC.  Tell me, how well did Josh Allen do when he played 'Real Teams'?

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/4/2/16913670/josh-allen-wyoming-nfl-draft-college-schedule-strength-opponents

So great. Josh Allen does great when he plays teams like Utah St....how many 'Utah States' are there in the NFL?  Exactly Zero.

And even then, Josh Allen's stats were hardly elite.  44 TDs vs 21 INTs ...a major regress from the year before, while all Mason Rudolph did was elevate his game each and every year. I'm not sure how anyone can look at Rudolph's career and not say he's a 'winner'. 32-9 in the Big XII and 3-1 in Bowl games is pretty impressive. People want to say that Josh Allen is a Winner, but, 16-9 and 1-1 in Bowl games, with that one win being against an 8-4 C. Michigan squad isn't very impressive...sorry, but it just isn't.

Overall, however, my point is not that Mason Rudolph is 'better' than Josh Allen; my point is Mason Rudolph as the 76th overall pick was a better selection than Josh Allen at 7th overall...or we can look at it this way...

Vita Vea, MJ Stewart, Carlton Davis, and Jordan Whitehead >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Rasheem Green and Alex McGough

...whereas...

Josh Allen is PROBABLY better than Mason Rudolph.

And that really is the crux of the argument.  Josh Allen has a ton of ?????s as the 7th overall pick, and will start from Day 1, because he almost has to, whereas Mason Rudolph gets to learn from behind Ben as the 76th overall pick.

As far as value, and which of the two was the best selection, all things considered, I don't see how many, if any, could honestly say that Josh Allen was the better of the two. Mason Rudolph was being discussed as high as 12th overall to the Bills, by quite a few fans, draftniks, media-types, and scouts, and ended up going 76th overall. You are entitled to your opinion, but that doesn't mean everyone felt the same way.

"Mason Rudolph, one of six quarterbacks who some thought would be taken in the first round, slipped past everyone in Round 2 before finding a new home in the third round with the Steelers." - https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2018-nfl-draft-day-2-recap-grades-mason-rudolphs-new-team-derrius-guices-slide/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/draft/2018/04/30/nfl-draft-steals-cowboys-steelers-mason-rudolph/562208002/

Posted April 8th, BEFORE the draft..."Watching his tapes on Youtube in big games and high pressure situations...  I think this guy is MUCH better than Allen.  Nobody is going to know until he gets a couple of season under his belt but he does have the most to prove...  I was listening to Jerome Bettis at his restaurant in Pittsburgh and his pick for the Bills was Mason and the Bills keep their pics for their rebuild.  Bettis said some great things about Buffalo and said after next years FA and their cap they will be the team of the AFC in 2020.    His only complaints about the Bills was the time to award the fans of Buffalo with a new stadium." - https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/204050-mason-rudolph-could-be-the-steal-of-the-2018-qb-draft-and-has-the-most-to-prove-per-bettis/

https://withthefirstpick.com/2018/04/28/2018-nfl-draft-pittsburgh-steelers-find-steal-mason-rudolph/

...and on and on...

And if you want to play the "Carr shouldn;t have been drafted in the 2nd Rd..." well, we can play the "Rudolph should have been drafted in the 2nd Rd," increasing his prospects of success from 25% to 45%. And Josh Allen should have slid to the back half of Rd one, taking that 81% to 65%, and now we are a looking at a 65% chance of success vs a 45% chance of success, then compare the price paid for the selections. Fact of the matter is, Josh Allen could have slipped to the late 1st, and no one would've wondered why...

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/18/josh-allen-draft-cleveland-browns-mmqb-peter-king (Also, notice Mason Rudolph's injection into the article...

So again, you can try to use stats that show Allen is going to be successful while Rudolp won't, but if Rudolph was potentially viewed as a mid-to-late 1st, who likely would slide to the 2nd due to other pressing needs of teams in the back half of Rd 1, then using 3rd Rd stats to suggest his chances of failure are high is highly flawed.