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CW21's 2018 NFL Draft Review (Browns Up)


CWood21

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55 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

You can sugarcoat it however you want, but the Bears traded their '19 2nd round pick in order to select Anthony Miller in the second.  That limits the flexibility that the Bears have in 2019, which is part of my evaluation.  Saints are going to be docked for giving up their '19 1st round pick.  IF the Bears want to move up in the first round next year, it's going to take a '20 1st round pick in order to do so since a 3rd round pick only moves them up a few spots and if they make that move up, they're limited from that point forward.  That's not a good business model.  The value of the trade isn't the issue, I don't dig into future picks for anything less than an impact player or a quarterback.  Anthony Miller isn't either.

You don’t think an average of 1448 yards and 16 TDs per season is an impact player? Many people have him as the best wideout in this draft.

If he gives us half of that production this year, it’s better to have him than a pick of unknown value next year.

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Just now, base615 said:

You don’t think an average of 1448 yards and 16 TDs per season is an impact player? Many people have him as the best wideout in this draft.

If he gives us half of that production this year, it’s better to have him than a pick of unknown value next year.

I'm really hoping you're not going to believe that his production in college is any indicator of his production at the NFL, because he's certainly not going to have that level of an impact in Chicago.  He played in a pass-heavy spread offense, as Riley Ferguson their starting QB was 10th in all of CFB in passing attempts.

And that's cool that others have him as the top wideout in the draft, that's really not saying much given how bad this WR class was as a whole.  I believe I only had one WR with a 1st round grade, and that WR (Calvin Ridley) was borderline.  It was an awful WR class at the top, so being the "best" WR in the class really isn't that much of an accolade.  I've already stated that I view him as a slot WR, and I think it's between him and Christian Kirk as to whose the top slot WR.  You could make an argument for either one of them.

As for your production point, I think you should probably adjust your expectations of him.  Of the 32 WRs drafted in 2017, only THREE (JuJu Smith-Schuster, Cooper Kupp, and Chris Godwin) had more than 500+ receiving yards.  Of those three, only two of them (JuJu and Kupp) had 700+ receiving yards.  Of those 32 WRs drafted, only two had 5+ TD receptions and NONE had 8+ TD receptions.  Oh, and those two (Kupp and JuJu) their respective QBs had QBRs of 100.5 (Jared Goff) and 93.4 (Big Ben) respectively.  For comparison, Trubisky's QBR was 77.5.

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FWIW I love Anthony Miller.  But yeah that’s a big price to pay.  

A B+ grade means a great draft even with the extra 2nd factored in.  Can’t say I disagree as I suspect it becomes a top 5-10 range when the 32 teams are done.  

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53 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I'm really hoping you're not going to believe that his production in college is any indicator of his production at the NFL, because he's certainly not going to have that level of an impact in Chicago.  He played in a pass-heavy spread offense, as Riley Ferguson their starting QB was 10th in all of CFB in passing attempts.

And that's cool that others have him as the top wideout in the draft, that's really not saying much given how bad this WR class was as a whole.  I believe I only had one WR with a 1st round grade, and that WR (Calvin Ridley) was borderline.  It was an awful WR class at the top, so being the "best" WR in the class really isn't that much of an accolade.  I've already stated that I view him as a slot WR, and I think it's between him and Christian Kirk as to whose the top slot WR.  You could make an argument for either one of them.

As for your production point, I think you should probably adjust your expectations of him.  Of the 32 WRs drafted in 2017, only THREE (JuJu Smith-Schuster, Cooper Kupp, and Chris Godwin) had more than 500+ receiving yards.  Of those three, only two of them (JuJu and Kupp) had 700+ receiving yards.  Of those 32 WRs drafted, only two had 5+ TD receptions and NONE had 8+ TD receptions.  Oh, and those two (Kupp and JuJu) their respective QBs had QBRs of 100.5 (Jared Goff) and 93.4 (Big Ben) respectively.  For comparison, Trubisky's QBR was 77.5.

You're comparing Goff and Big Ben's QBRs last year with stacked offensive weapons and serviceable coaching with Trubisky's rookie year with no weapons and Foxball.

If you're just looking at stats, the year before, Goff had a QBR of 63.6 and the Bears have had an offseason comparable to the Rams last year in terms of giving support to Trubisky. Trubisky, within the constraints of Fox / Loggains, played much better than his misleading 77.5 QBR and miles better than Goff's 2016 performance.

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17 minutes ago, base615 said:

You're comparing Goff and Big Ben's QBRs last year with stacked offensive weapons and serviceable coaching with Trubisky's rookie year with no weapons and Foxball.

If you're just looking at stats, the year before, Goff had a QBR of 63.6 and the Bears have had an offseason comparable to the Rams last year in terms of giving support to Trubisky. Trubisky, within the constraints of Fox / Loggains, played much better than his misleading 77.5 QBR and miles better than Goff's 2016 performance.

@jrry32 @stl4life07 @Non-Issue @NVRamsFan - I’ll save the work for them and others and point out that while I love the Nagy hire until he can prove he’s at McVay’s innovator / transformative OC level of coaching upgrade and CHI has the kind of OL upgrade that Whitworth and Sullivan gave LAR, that projecting a similar year 2 bump for Trubisky as Goff has is a pretty out-there projection.   

Getting rid of Fox was a great move to Nagy for sure but you’re talking about the GOAT of coaches who destroy talent in Jeff Fisher 2016 to the top point-scoring OC hire with McVay 2017.  Nagy hasn’t proven he’s at that level yet of good-if-not-great (and while Fox is bad for O’s if you don’t have #18 to ignore him....no one is at Fisher’s level of awful).  

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Going up to get an elite QB prospect without giving up a future pick was a big boost.

Kirk is a hometown kid, productive in the SEC and should wind up at worst a #3 receiver, but shapes as a future starter.

Cole shapes as similar to Boehm fringe starter/reserve. It depends how they develop.

I like the look of Edmonds, should be a nice complimentary piece in that he can play a role behind Johnson that won't require schematic changes as it did last season.

Campbell is a project with STs upside and Cunningham is a project tackle who is uber athletic and loved by our OL coach.

I'm happy with the draft while still being wary of our lack of a #2 corner.

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52 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

@jrry32 @stl4life07 @Non-Issue @NVRamsFan - I’ll save the work for them and others and point out that while I love the Nagy hire until he can prove he’s at McVay’s innovator / transformative OC level of coaching upgrade and CHI has the kind of OL upgrade that Whitworth and Sullivan gave LAR, that projecting a similar year 2 bump for Trubisky as Goff has is a pretty out-there projection.   

Getting rid of Fox was a great move to Nagy for sure but you’re talking about the GOAT of coaches who destroy talent in Jeff Fisher 2016 to the top point-scoring OC hire with McVay 2017.  Nagy hasn’t proven he’s at that level yet of good-if-not-great (and while Fox is bad for O’s if you don’t have #18 to ignore him....no one is at Fisher’s level of awful).  

Plus, Goff was a more talented QB than Trubisky. But yea, you pretty much covered it. :)

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Just to kind of put a little perspective on some of the Cardinals selections. 5 of the 6 were former team captains, this is a strong trend that our GM Steve Keim has followed, the only one that was not was Campbell who was a one year starter. Every year Keim also selects a small school player a tad higher than most consider them to be, so far he's drafted David Johnson, John Brown, and Rodney Gunter in the fourth round or higher, and all have made significant contributions at some level. Chase Edmonds I am hoping is added to that club. He would've been the FCS all time rushing leader if it hadn't been for injury.

Mason Cole is incredibly durable and versatile. Then Korey Cunningham was contacted by 8 teams prior to us drafting him about wanting to pick him up as a UDFA, so he is highly thought of at the very least. The two of these coupled with new offensive line coach Ray Brown, who has a history of developing talent (See Iupati, Anthony Davis, Trai Turner, and Anthony Norwell) and it feels like it could be more promising than our past offensive line selections. 

Christian Campbell is apparently a player sought out by Wilks. Wilks has a history of developing late round DBs (See Josh Norman) 

So that would be my defense of our late round picks if anyone is skeptical. I think that if you are only grading rounds 1 and 2 we likely get one of the highest grades because Rosen and Kirk is like a dream come true, and I'd be kind of shocked if many disagreed with that. 

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1 hour ago, LuckyNumber11 said:

Just to kind of put a little perspective on some of the Cardinals selections. 5 of the 6 were former team captains, this is a strong trend that our GM Steve Keim has followed, the only one that was not was Campbell who was a one year starter. Every year Keim also selects a small school player a tad higher than most consider them to be, so far he's drafted David Johnson, John Brown, and Rodney Gunter in the fourth round or higher, and all have made significant contributions at some level. Chase Edmonds I am hoping is added to that club. He would've been the FCS all time rushing leader if it hadn't been for injury.

Mason Cole is incredibly durable and versatile. Then Korey Cunningham was contacted by 8 teams prior to us drafting him about wanting to pick him up as a UDFA, so he is highly thought of at the very least. The two of these coupled with new offensive line coach Ray Brown, who has a history of developing talent (See Iupati, Anthony Davis, Trai Turner, and Anthony Norwell) and it feels like it could be more promising than our past offensive line selections. 

Christian Campbell is apparently a player sought out by Wilks. Wilks has a history of developing late round DBs (See Josh Norman) 

So that would be my defense of our late round picks if anyone is skeptical. I think that if you are only grading rounds 1 and 2 we likely get one of the highest grades because Rosen and Kirk is like a dream come true, and I'd be kind of shocked if many disagreed with that. 

I was not in favor of moving up for a quarterback in this draft as none of them separated themselves from the others. This team has other needs to fill and the second group of quarterbacks could be very good, White, Lauletta and Falk. Rosen needs to surpass Glennon in training  camp for me to be happy with this pick. 

As for Kirk, I was hoping for a bigger body receiver like Fitzgerald. We need physical wideouts to compete in our division. Kirk is a terrific talent and I hope he can become an Antonio Brown type player. 

I like Cambell as a physical cover cornerback and Wilks history with corners makes me optimistic. 

I’m intrigued by some of our undrafted free agents Battle, Kanoff, Tolliver and Turner. 

Overall a good draft.. I give it a solid B

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6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

@jrry32 @stl4life07 @Non-Issue @NVRamsFan - I’ll save the work for them and others and point out that while I love the Nagy hire until he can prove he’s at McVay’s innovator / transformative OC level of coaching upgrade and CHI has the kind of OL upgrade that Whitworth and Sullivan gave LAR, that projecting a similar year 2 bump for Trubisky as Goff has is a pretty out-there projection.   

Getting rid of Fox was a great move to Nagy for sure but you’re talking about the GOAT of coaches who destroy talent in Jeff Fisher 2016 to the top point-scoring OC hire with McVay 2017.  Nagy hasn’t proven he’s at that level yet of good-if-not-great (and while Fox is bad for O’s if you don’t have #18 to ignore him....no one is at Fisher’s level of awful).  

Fair enough. It's obvious that you haven't watched the Bears for the last 3 years enough to know the issues so I've got no problem with revisiting this next year with you.

For the record, I didn't say there would definitely be a similar 2 year bump for Trubisky vs Goff. I suggested we'd come out ahead in the trade if we were picking anywhere around the 19th pick or later. There doesn't need to be as Trubisky was better this past year than Goff was his first year, and the Bears picked later than the Rams did in '17 so a smaller bump will get us to that level. The Rams went from pick 5 to pick 23 (18 picks) while the Bears would only need to go from 8 to 19 (11 picks), all with Trubisky starting from a better base than Goff after his first year.

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4 hours ago, base615 said:

Fair enough. It's obvious that you haven't watched the Bears for the last 3 years enough to know the issues so I've got no problem with revisiting this next year with you.

For the record, I didn't say there would definitely be a similar 2 year bump for Trubisky vs Goff. I suggested we'd come out ahead in the trade if we were picking anywhere around the 19th pick or later. There doesn't need to be as Trubisky was better this past year than Goff was his first year, and the Bears picked later than the Rams did in '17 so a smaller bump will get us to that level. The Rams went from pick 5 to pick 23 (18 picks) while the Bears would only need to go from 8 to 19 (11 picks), all with Trubisky starting from a better base than Goff after his first year.

I love what the Bears did in the draft.    Your statement that I haven't seen the Bears applies just as much as your evaluation of the 2016 to 2017 Rams, though (more on that in a sec).  As for the Bears, I'd say the issues on O were:

1.   Awful, conservative game plan with little to no creativity, and certainly no chance taking (remember, we had Fox as DEN's HC - just mitigated by #18, but man, Fox did his best to limit us when the games counted).  And worse when you're facing an equally or more talented team.

2.  Complete lack of supporting cast in the WR corps.

3.  Very iffy personnel choices.

4.   Key injuries to their best players on the OL.   Why they were a bottom 10 (23rd out of 32 in DVOA) in pass pro. 

Is there something missing?    So, yeah, the 2018 Bears O can only be better.  No argument there.   But again, those all happened to the 2016 STL..and even more.   Jeff Fisher was finally recognized as a plague on football humanity that he is.   He's the guy that couldn't even name the right players on the opposing team the week before he was playing them.    And who emphasized his punting unit as an area of focus in describing his O priorities.   The Rams didn't have injuries to their 2016 OL - their OL was just awful.  They were 29th out of 32 in DVOA in both pass pro & overall pass pro in 2016, and then became the #3 unit last year (Whitworth/Sulllivan, holy hell Batman).   And of course, they had the highest scoring OC come over and replace the worst coach of this era ever.   To even talk about Goff in his 1st year, you are clearly presenting a case that we're going to see a Year 2 big jump for Trubisky.  The problem is, the same statement you are making (didn't see what happened to CHI's O) - it applies 100x more if you think LAR's 2016 situation wasn't even worse than CHI 2017, or that the upgrades are comparable to what LAR did from 2016 to 2017.

If your argument is that CHI is going to go from the 8th to the 19th pick-range, then you are clearly basing the Trubisky statements that he's going to have a big progression.   Sure, it doesn't have to be as large as Goff's - but it's going to have to be big.   I love me some Nagy, that was a great hire, and I love the Bears draft.  You should have about 100x more hope than with Fire-Fox as your HC.  And again, a B+ is a top 5-10 draft overall.   Most drafts don't have a big Year 1 impact (everyone points to NO, but that literally happens 1x every decade, if not rarer).   

It also doesn't mean that 2 2nds aren't a big price to pay for Miller.  I absolutely love Miller, but that's still a big price to pay.    Love his game, love the boldness - it just does factor in the draft grading for sure (I mean, really, nothing's a lock, it's just opinion - I just totally see where @CWood21 is coming from here).

 

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