Ftn49 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Forge said: The bolded is misleading. You're looking at this wrong. You're not putting the worth on Miller at 2 first round picks if that deal doesn't actually exist. Just because those trades yielded those type of results in the past doesn't mean its the same every year. One year, 2013, The Dolphins went from 13 to 3 for nothing more than a second round pick. The trade market is highly volatile. The value of Miller is going from 1 to 8 and a second round pick. Is he worth that? Because the rest of it has nothing to do with it unless that's actually a trade on the table. I agree that the trade value market fluctuates from year to year and the only way you get that kind of value is with a QB being involved. This year the top QB market is lite at the top though as far as I am aware but how many teams are going to be after QBs? New York for sure, Jacksonville most likely, Denver and I'm sure there are others I'm not thinking about. There will be a high market this year unless those teams solve their qb issues in another way or more prospects become highly desirable. The only one that I am aware of with a top 10 grade is Justin Herbert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 19 minutes ago, Ftn49 said: I agree that the trade value market fluctuates from year to year and the only way you get that kind of value is with a QB being involved. This year the top QB market is lite at the top though as far as I am aware but how many teams are going to be after QBs? New York for sure, Jacksonville most likely, Denver and I'm sure there are others I'm not thinking about. There will be a high market this year unless those teams solve their qb issues in another way or more prospects become highly desirable. The only one that I am aware of with a top 10 grade is Justin Herbert. Again though, this is purely hypothetical. You're assuming that all of the teams will have similar grades on him. We've seen this in the past (Cleveland with both Watson and Wentz, for example). We could also go hypothetical the other way and say that only Denver likes him that much. Unless Jax completely tanks out the rest of the season (possible given the last two weeks, but seems more improbable), they probably aren't going to be in a position to make that kind of trade. Plus, they are structured to win now, so entrusting that team to a rookie seems unlikely, and Bortles doesn't really save them anything next year (he's got a 21m cap hit w/16.5 dead) and they are already over the cap for next year. They are probably stuck with Bortles and a buy low guy (Bradford?). The Giants look terrible, but if they are picking at #2, I'm not giving up a treasure trove of assets to move up one spot. I'd rather just take the chance that the 49ers couldn't work out that deal with Denver likely being the only reasonable trade partner unless we are willing to move way down. So maybe that offer is super light. Maybe it's just pick 34 which is entirely reasonable from both team perspectives. A high market is completely hypothetical right now, and again, not really relevant to whether you would take that trade for Miller. If there are other offers on the table, then you evaluate each on their merits. But there's no reason to assume that there would be another offer on the table just for the sake of saying yes or no to this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ftn49 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 17 minutes ago, Forge said: Again though, this is purely hypothetical. You're assuming that all of the teams will have similar grades on him. We've seen this in the past (Cleveland with both Watson and Wentz, for example). We could also go hypothetical the other way and say that only Denver likes him that much. Unless Jax completely tanks out the rest of the season (possible given the last two weeks, but seems more improbable), they probably aren't going to be in a position to make that kind of trade. Plus, they are structured to win now, so entrusting that team to a rookie seems unlikely, and Bortles doesn't really save them anything next year (he's got a 21m cap hit w/16.5 dead) and they are already over the cap for next year. They are probably stuck with Bortles and a buy low guy (Bradford?). The Giants look terrible, but if they are picking at #2, I'm not giving up a treasure trove of assets to move up one spot. I'd rather just take the chance that the 49ers couldn't work out that deal with Denver likely being the only reasonable trade partner unless we are willing to move way down. So maybe that offer is super light. Maybe it's just pick 34 which is entirely reasonable from both team perspectives. A high market is completely hypothetical right now, and again, not really relevant to whether you would take that trade for Miller. If there are other offers on the table, then you evaluate each on their merits. But there's no reason to assume that there would be another offer on the table just for the sake of saying yes or no to this one. I don't think we are actually disagreeing very much. As you mentioned, this is all hypothetical. Any trade like this wouldn't happen until seasons end because if it happened mid season there is entirely the possibility that they would pick higher than us. And I'm assuming you meant the giants swapping 2nd to 1st overall in regards to the 34th pick. The broncos pick would be around 40. Unless this was an extremely poor year for prospects, that would not be a reasonable drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sherm Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Josh Allen just clinched the win with a strip sack fumble. He was all over the field today vs Vandy. I might have a man crush forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 So, if, the reports on Herbert being much more likely to go back to school are true (and I stress, if, since these reports are often a hilarious exercise in merry go round reporting from different people), then it definitely throws a dent in potentially getting someone like Bosa without pick one or two. Was never overly concerned about the Giants picking ahead of us, but have to imagine that both Oliver and Bosa would be obvious targets for them given the reader of snacks and Vernon unlikely to be back next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John232 Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, Forge said: So, if, the reports on Herbert being much more likely to go back to school are true (and I stress, if, since these reports are often a hilarious exercise in merry go round reporting from different people), then it definitely throws a dent in potentially getting someone like Bosa without pick one or two. Was never overly concerned about the Giants picking ahead of us, but have to imagine that both Oliver and Bosa would be obvious targets for them given the reader of snacks and Vernon unlikely to be back next year Quinnen Willians is another guy who could in theory go ahead of Bosa. If a team wants an elite DT prospect without worrying about tweener problems, Williams would be the way to go. One problem with Oliver is he’s probably at most 285. That might scare teams away. But Herbert not declaring is maddness. Dude is a top 5 lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 56 minutes ago, John232 said: Quinnen Willians is another guy who could in theory go ahead of Bosa. If a team wants an elite DT prospect without worrying about tweener problems, Williams would be the way to go. One problem with Oliver is he’s probably at most 285. That might scare teams away. But Herbert not declaring is maddness. Dude is a top 5 lock. Yeah, I don't know why Herbert wouldn't declare. If you're a top 5 lock, you need to go. Otherwise your risk getting Brad Kaaya'd (remember when SI said that he was going to be the #1 pick in the draft the year before? Yikes). I suppose in the end, it really depends on who drafts where. I'd be really curious to see if Williams goes ahead of Oliver. The latter is a touch smaller, of course, but Donald has shown that's not an issue if you are an athletic freak. So if Oliver balls out the combine as most suspect, I don't think his size will be a major issue. If his numbers are disappointing? Yeah, I could see it. But the fact that he does what he does in a 2 gap scheme is even more impressive, in my opinion. The one thing that makes it hard for me to pass on Oliver if I needed an interior lineman is, how many people can you think of who were bandied about as future #1 overall picks as a freshman, balled out all three years in college, and then busted in the NFL? I have to imagine that list is rather short, you know? Granted, it's a very limited pool with which to choose from, but it's really hard to find a player like that off the top of my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ftn49 Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 2 hours ago, Forge said: Yeah, I don't know why Herbert wouldn't declare. If you're a top 5 lock, you need to go. Otherwise your risk getting Brad Kaaya'd (remember when SI said that he was going to be the #1 pick in the draft the year before? Yikes). I suppose in the end, it really depends on who drafts where. I'd be really curious to see if Williams goes ahead of Oliver. The latter is a touch smaller, of course, but Donald has shown that's not an issue if you are an athletic freak. So if Oliver balls out the combine as most suspect, I don't think his size will be a major issue. If his numbers are disappointing? Yeah, I could see it. But the fact that he does what he does in a 2 gap scheme is even more impressive, in my opinion. The one thing that makes it hard for me to pass on Oliver if I needed an interior lineman is, how many people can you think of who were bandied about as future #1 overall picks as a freshman, balled out all three years in college, and then busted in the NFL? I have to imagine that list is rather short, you know? Granted, it's a very limited pool with which to choose from, but it's really hard to find a player like that off the top of my head. Clowney isn't a bust but I don't know if he has ever lived up to his billing either. To be fair that would be tough to do. Same thing with Stafford. Those are the last two I remember in college being said from basically day 1 they are going to be the #1 overall pick. I guess we'll see how Tua does in the nfl in a couple of years, but that hype train wasn't from day 1 either I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 Just now, Ftn49 said: Clowney isn't a bust but I don't know if he has ever lived up to his billing either. To be fair that would be tough to do. Same thing with Stafford. Those are the last two I remember in college being said from basically day 1 they are going to be the #1 overall pick. I guess we'll see how Tua does in the nfl in a couple of years, but that hype train wasn't from day 1 either I guess. Yeah, I think the sample size is probably just too small. Clowney was the first person I thought of as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John232 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 I think Clowney is a bust in that he hasn’t lived up to his insane billing, but again, lots of other dudes there..I’d also argue he’s probably a top 10 pass rusher when healthy. Still young and can get better. I’d want us to go after him if he was available. He could also play off ball too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psychlone Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 7 hours ago, Forge said: The one thing that makes it hard for me to pass on Oliver if I needed an interior lineman is, how many people can you think of who were bandied about as future #1 overall picks as a freshman, balled out all three years in college, and then busted in the NFL? I have to imagine that list is rather short, you know? Granted, it's a very limited pool with which to choose from, but it's really hard to find a player like that off the top of my head. Thought of Clowney as a recent selection but Mandarich, Bosworth, Marinovich and Archie Griffin (for us old bastards) popped in my mind. Maybe another dozen or so I can think of right now but their demise had more to do with injuries. Agree though that overall, very small sample size... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 19 hours ago, Psychlone said: Thought of Clowney as a recent selection but Mandarich, Bosworth, Marinovich and Archie Griffin (for us old bastards) popped in my mind. Maybe another dozen or so I can think of right now but their demise had more to do with injuries. Agree though that overall, very small sample size... Injuries was the most common thing for me as well. Andy katzenmoyer was a guy I thought of. There are a couple of freshman I thought of who were hyped, but fell apart before the end of their college career (Hack). Matt Barkley I suppose fits, but clearly by his senior season he wasn't viewed as that type of prospect any more. Same for Pryor. I guess Tim couch would qualify, though he didn't light the world on fire his freshman season. But highly touted recruit, largely lived up to the billing in years two and three once UK went to the air raid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ftn49 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 https://247sports.com/Article/Jachai-Polite-Josh-Allen-2019-NFL-Draft-123785270/ Interesting article with a couple of the prospects discussed around here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrissooner49er Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 16 hours ago, Ftn49 said: https://247sports.com/Article/Jachai-Polite-Josh-Allen-2019-NFL-Draft-123785270/ Interesting article with a couple of the prospects discussed around here... That was a pretty good, yet brief article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-ALL-DAY Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 17 hours ago, Ftn49 said: https://247sports.com/Article/Jachai-Polite-Josh-Allen-2019-NFL-Draft-123785270/ Interesting article with a couple of the prospects discussed around here... POOOOOOLLLLLLLLITTTTTTEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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