2019 Draft Talk (Draft Order in OP)

[Justone2]

18 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

To that I say the hell with it being too light, let's put out a dominant pass rush first and foremost. We could rotate in guys like DJ Jones and Armstead for certain run downs. 

Which are mostly base down so your base D wouldn't have those four as the D-line. In the end if you get those guys they will probably play most of the snaps. But to me a good D-line needs to have that rotation to one keep guys fresh and two get guys in the best position for them so succeed. You can have the best pass rush but if you can't stop the run you are still toast. You need that balance and thats why you need to rotate and why i say on passing downs we will see those guys in there but even then there will be rotation during the game. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

2 minutes ago, Justone2 said:

Which are mostly base down so your base D wouldn't have those four as the D-line. In the end if you get those guys they will probably play most of the snaps. But to me a good D-line needs to have that rotation to one keep guys fresh and two get guys in the best position for them so succeed. You can have the best pass rush but if you can't stop the run you are still toast. You need that balance and thats why you need to rotate and why i say on passing downs we will see those guys in there but even then there will be rotation during the game. 

We will always be a decent run stopping team with Thomas/Buckner/Armstead and Bosa is a really solid run stopper himself. I'm just not worried about stopping the run to be honest. If we have a dominant pass rush that is a complete game changer. I'm not advocating for us to be a huge liability in the run game, just that in the big picture it doesn't matter nearly as much as being a good pass defensive team. 

[NcFinest9erFan]

29 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

To that I say the hell with it being too light, let's put out a dominant pass rush first and foremost. We could rotate in guys like DJ Jones and Armstead for certain run downs. 

yeah i'd agree with J. It is a passing league now and I understand Thomas is a bit light at DT but if he can play then let him play. 

[NcFinest9erFan]

Looking back we played in that 4-2-5 alignment with Harbaugh with Justin Smith and McDonald on the inside. Now Thomas isn't on the same level as Justin Smith but Smith was also 270-280? and played the run pretty well still as did Mcdonald who was listed at 290. 

[Justone2]

25 minutes ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

Looking back we played in that 4-2-5 alignment with Harbaugh with Justin Smith and McDonald on the inside. Now Thomas isn't on the same level as Justin Smith but Smith was also 270-280? and played the run pretty well still as did Mcdonald who was listed at 290. 

We played a 3-4 that turned in a 4-2-5 a lot because we took our Nose tackle out but on base downs we had Isaac Sopoaga in the middle. The 4-2-5 was our nickle package and basically still is. I am not saying if we have Ford-Buckner-Thomas-Bosa they wouldnt play the most downs but it shouldn't be your base D. In your base alignment there probably will be a guy like Jones/Mitchell to just swallow up blockers. And the reason we where so good at stopping the run was because we had two of the best MLB's in there. 

[Justone2]

44 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

We will always be a decent run stopping team with Thomas/Buckner/Armstead and Bosa is a really solid run stopper himself. I'm just not worried about stopping the run to be honest. If we have a dominant pass rush that is a complete game changer. I'm not advocating for us to be a huge liability in the run game, just that in the big picture it doesn't matter nearly as much as being a good pass defensive team. 

Oh i agree i just think it really depends on what you call your base D-line. Is it the one on paper or the one that will see most of the snaps. In todays NFL the base D is more of a 4-2-5/3-3-5 because defenses are in nickle over 50% of the time. So yeah a line like the one proposed could work well enough against the run but when they go heavy and you get in your base 4-3 there will be a guy like Jones/Mitchell coming in to man the middle and Armstead/Thomas sliding to DE with Ford coming off the field or sliding to SAM.

[NcFinest9erFan]

3 minutes ago, Justone2 said:

We played a 3-4 that turned in a 4-2-5 a lot because we took our Nose tackle out but on base downs we had Isaac Sopoaga in the middle. The 4-2-5 was our nickle package and basically still is. I am not saying if we have Ford-Buckner-Thomas-Bosa they wouldnt play the most downs but it shouldn't be your base D. In your base alignment there probably will be a guy like Jones/Mitchell to just swallow up blockers. And the reason we where so good at stopping the run was because we had two of the best MLB's in there. 

yeah at this point I'm just trying to see if we can get anything out of Solomon Thomas. It sucks that right now it really looks like outside of Kittle, Lynch's first draft isn't going to end well.

[y2lamanaki]

35 minutes ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

yeah at this point I'm just trying to see if we can get anything out of Solomon Thomas. It sucks that right now it really looks like outside of Kittle, Lynch's first draft isn't going to end well.

I think the jury is still very much out on Witherspoon and Taylor. Witherspoon has been fine since he was benched in Green Bay and pretty strong the last 2 games. Taylor didn't progress due to injury, but I think will be fine (especially with Garoppolo). Those are the two that I think will ultimately determine if that was a bad class or an okay one. Colbert is sort of a wildcard, too. Good 7th round pick, regardless, but if he can return to 2017 play, he can push that back to a good class.

[rudyZ]

10 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

I think the jury is still very much out on Witherspoon and Taylor. Witherspoon has been fine since he was benched in Green Bay and pretty strong the last 2 games. Taylor didn't progress due to injury, but I think will be fine (especially with Garoppolo). Those are the two that I think will ultimately determine if that was a bad class or an okay one. Colbert is sort of a wildcard, too. Good 7th round pick, regardless, but if he can return to 2017 play, he can push that back to a good class.

I'm still at the point where I think we can move on from some Baalke holdovers. Ward is as good as gone. And I don't think Tartt can be trusted to be healthy. I think that if we add a talented veteran S, and we coupled him with a guy with Colbert, that's how we get the most out of Colbert. He's young and he doesn't know what he's doing half the time. He needs a veteran to put him in the right position. But outside of that, he has all the range and physicality we could ever hope for from a safety. I don't think Tartt can do that for him. And while Tartt has a tantalizing skill set, I don't think we can go into a season thinking he's going to be a 16 games starter. If we can give him a secondary role, an opponent-based role, where he'd play more a hybrid role, maybe with reduced snaps, maybe we'd get the most out of him. If he's our starter and there's the inevitable drop off to his back-up, then we're in trouble. We need a starter who is significantly better than him, and he can have a different role.

I think Witherspoon will be okay. Will he ever be a #1 corner, or will we need to find someone else to take over Sherman's role? I don't know. But as a #2, I think he'll be okay. I don't put the penalties on him, this year. I blame that on losing. We're in a losing trend, and when teams are on such trends, calls never seem to go their way. He's not blowing as many coverages as he did earlier in the year. Hopefully he can start better next year than he did this year. And if we get a shot at another CB this year, sure, let's go for it. If Spoon is #1 back-up until Sherman leaves, that's better than having Greg Mabin out there. 

I'd shut down Taylor for the year already. He hasn't seen too much action anyway, just put him on IR to get that back fixed (it's the back, right?), and let's bring back Max McCaffrey. Richie James can be the quick guy inside, Pettis and Kittle getting most of the attention. We don't need to see more from Taylor. We need him to be healthy and hope that he's comes back strong with Jimmy and be Mr 3rd down conversion once again. 

I'm disappointed with the complete absence of a plan in regard to Thomas, through two years. How is that even possible? Just watching him practice and hope he performs better than the others? I didn't want him initially, and always figured he was a character pick. He was chosen because he was safe (supposed to have a high floor), and had the personality we wanted to instill in this defense. But his lack of upside is kind of backfiring. He was a prospect I liked, but didn't love. That's why it was such a disappointment for me. It's a top 3 pick. There are only two players in the whole draft you cannot pick at this point, how can you possibly not be super duper happy about the guy your getting? By drafting the guy who is safe, but whose upside isn't that extraordinary. Was there anyone predicting him getting 15 sacks a year, anywhere in the scouting world? No. 10 sacks? Maybe. Right there, that's underwhelming for a top 3 pick. But hey, high character, Stanford kid. Was he supposed to mitigate the risk we were planning to take on Reuben? Maybe we don't take that risk if, with the third pick, we're taking another risky pick. 

Really, the only hope we have at this point is to really nail this offseason and get the pass rush help we so badly need. Then a guy like Thomas might end up looking half decent. As long as we don't have that edge pressure, he has no chance, because he isn't himself generating that edge pressure we were expecting from a third overall pick. If we get that edge pressure, everyone on defense will look better. The secondary will look better, because the QB will have less time to dissect us. The LBs will be freed up to make more plays as well. Now, is anyone on that defense capable of creating a turnover? Let's hope so.

[757-NINER]

On 12/5/2018 at 12:42 PM, rudyZ said:

I'm still at the point where I think we can move on from some Baalke holdovers. Ward is as good as gone. And I don't think Tartt can be trusted to be healthy. I think that if we add a talented veteran S, and we coupled him with a guy with Colbert, that's how we get the most out of Colbert. He's young and he doesn't know what he's doing half the time. He needs a veteran to put him in the right position. But outside of that, he has all the range and physicality we could ever hope for from a safety. I don't think Tartt can do that for him. And while Tartt has a tantalizing skill set, I don't think we can go into a season thinking he's going to be a 16 games starter. If we can give him a secondary role, an opponent-based role, where he'd play more a hybrid role, maybe with reduced snaps, maybe we'd get the most out of him. If he's our starter and there's the inevitable drop off to his back-up, then we're in trouble. We need a starter who is significantly better than him, and he can have a different role.

I think Witherspoon will be okay. Will he ever be a #1 corner, or will we need to find someone else to take over Sherman's role? I don't know. But as a #2, I think he'll be okay. I don't put the penalties on him, this year. I blame that on losing. We're in a losing trend, and when teams are on such trends, calls never seem to go their way. He's not blowing as many coverages as he did earlier in the year. Hopefully he can start better next year than he did this year. And if we get a shot at another CB this year, sure, let's go for it. If Spoon is #1 back-up until Sherman leaves, that's better than having Greg Mabin out there. 

I'd shut down Taylor for the year already. He hasn't seen too much action anyway, just put him on IR to get that back fixed (it's the back, right?), and let's bring back Max McCaffrey. Richie James can be the quick guy inside, Pettis and Kittle getting most of the attention. We don't need to see more from Taylor. We need him to be healthy and hope that he's comes back strong with Jimmy and be Mr. 3rd down conversion once again. 

Great post and I completely agree with you in the quoted.

As for Thomas, I was one of those who really thought he could develop into a pretty good edge rusher, over time. Start him inside, and as he developed he could see some snaps along the edge in certain packages. But he really looks like a fish out of water on the outside and I'm really kicking myself for not analyzing his game with more scrutiny and seeing it. 

[John232]

I don't know if anyone listens to Locked on 49ers, but Jon Ledyard, one of the best draft pundits and scouts, was on two episodes last week after writing his article "How to fix the 49ers". He really goes into depth about Solomon Thomas and on some level, Foster. In short, he basically said Thomas was always going top 10, there was always risk with him due to the position switch, but outside of that, he was pretty much a dream prospect for his position. 

 

More or less implies that the 49ers process is fine and that you're just dealing with normal "misses" tha teams sometimes get. 

[Chrissooner49er]

1 hour ago, John232 said:

 

More or less implies that the 49ers process is fine and that you're just dealing with normal "misses" tha teams sometimes get. 

And some of us judge too quickly...3 or 4 years is what most pundits advise people to allow. Yet, we have several who are willing to judge at 1 1/2-3/4 years. 

smh

[rudyZ]

58 minutes ago, Chrissooner49er said:

And some of us judge too quickly...3 or 4 years is what most pundits advise people to allow. Yet, we have several who are willing to judge at 1 1/2-3/4 years. 

smh

Well, many people were questioning the fit even before the draft, rather than judging the talent. These people are still questioning the fit now, and the first impression on the talent isn't favorable. So it's the double whammy. If he were a good fit, I'd agree that giving him more time is justified. Or if he was flashing his talent substantially, I'd question the fit less. But as things are going, it's the double disappointment that makes me judge him harder than he probably should. 

This being told, there's no reason to move on from him now. He has the time to improve. He's probably still a solid player who's not going to hurt us on the field (or off the field, which is becoming rather important these days), and might even show for a play or two eventually. So he's a guy who will be in uniform and will get these 3-4 years of fair evaluation, no matter how disappointed we currently are. It would make no sense to cut him, and he doesn't have the trade value that would justify trading him away. He's here whether we like him or not, and I for sure hope he'll find that next gear in his development. Who knows, maybe all he needs in a new coach or two, or a new coordinator, to finally use him properly, and then he'll explode and play like a top 3 pick. Honestly, I don't even require him to play like a top 3 pick, just like a first rounder. Like a guy who we're not constantly hoping to upgrade at his position. And that's what we're doing now, because frankly, he's not playing the right position. We'll get it right eventually. Hopefully.

[Forge]

11 hours ago, Chrissooner49er said:

And some of us judge too quickly...3 or 4 years is what most pundits advise people to allow. Yet, we have several who are willing to judge at 1 1/2-3/4 years. 

smh

NFL teams judge quickly. Usually you're not looking to move on before years 3-4 without a decent return in trade, but the writing is typically on the wall long before that and come year 3 / year 4, teams are just ready to go.  Year three can often be a make or break year for a player that hasn't shown anything (and that's largely what Thomas is going to have next year). Hesitant to give up on them prior to that, but not unprecedented (as I'm about to outline), and if they haven't shown much by the end of year 2, they aren't typically showing much more in years 3/4. After 3 years, teams are certainly willing to move on. Let's look at the 2015 draft: 

#3 Dante Fowler - traded in 3.5 years (and option year was not previously picked up)

#4 Amari Cooper - traded in  3.5 years.

#9 Ereck Flowers - cut after just more than 3 years. Team tried to move him beforehand. 

#12 Danny Shelton - traded after year 3. 

#18 Marcus Peters - traded after year 3. 

#19 Cam Erving - traded after year 2

#26 Breshad Perriman - essentially cut after 2 years (missed one year with injury)

#28 Laken Tomlinson - traded after year 2. 

#29 Phillip Dorsett - traded after year 2

#30 Darmarious Randall - traded after year 3

#31 Stephone Anthony - traded after year 2

So that is a 11/32 of the draft class that was on their second team midway through their 4th season. Some of those are extenuating circumstances, some of them like Cooper were good players who just yielded a good return. 25% were gone by the end of year 3 (8 of 32). 12.5% were done after their second year with the team. If you extend it out to pick 45, you can add 5 more guys who were let go by their drafting teams after years 2-3, which would make it about 35% of the top 45 picks who were on their second team before year 4 was over. Almost 30% didn't even see a 4th year with their drafting team. More will play out their rookie deal with no option (Kevin White, Obhbuei, Shane Ray) and move on (so 4 years exactly).  

Out of the guys who have struggled in that draft class since being drafted, I'd say that the only one who went from bad to pretty solid was Algholor, which was facilitated by a change in role (sound familiar for Thomas?) where they moved him into the slot. Since being moved back to the outside this year, he's been pretty dreadful again. 

2016 Is a little better as only 3 of the first rounders are no longer with the team that drafted them (Apple, Corey Coleman, Lynch) but again, teams are willing to move on rather quickly. If you once again extend it out to pick 45, you get another 4 guys who have already been moved on from. So 7 of the top 45 picks have been shipped off after 2 whole years. I think a significant number of those guys remaining are going to be fighting for roster spots next year as they have been big disappointments so far (Hargreaves can probably be cut, there's already been talk about Lawson being on the block and a potential casualty, most thought Garnett was gone this year, Nkemdiche has been benched in AZ, Treadwell is wide receiver 4 in Minnesota). Out of the guys in this draft class who have failed to live up to their billing in years 1 and 2, I can't really think of any of them who are suddenly balling out in year 3 and having a breakout campaign. Maybe Darron Lee? He was pretty abysmal his first go round, been pretty solid this year from what I have seen. I've only watched a couple of jets games, but he seems to be doing okay. 

Nobody is advocating for cutting Thomas. Again, that's extreme even in the world of the NFL where they are ready to move on rather quickly. Not too many are just gone after two years, but by year two, you often have a pretty okay idea on who's going to be hanging around. I have admitted that I'd be willing to entertain trade offers for him at this point, but I'm not just cutting him. But nobody I have seen has labeled him a lost cause or anything; just that he has largely been a bust given where he was drafted and what he has done, and how he largely looks like JAG on the outside.   I think it's a bit rare for a player to be bad his first two years and then turn it around in year three without showing major progression at some point (which Thomas has not).

And let's make no mistake here, up through this point of his career, he's absolutely a bust. Now, the results aren't all on him - the team is culpable here as well, but up through this point, there's an argument that can be made that he is the worst player drafted in the top 20 of 2017 and bottom 5 of the entire first round. We drafted the guy in the top 3 to be a pass rusher and thus far he's gifted us with one accidental sack this year (closest person to Carr when running out of bounds behind the line), and hasn't been able to consistently get on the field late in games or over 60% of the defensive snaps. Sorry man, up to this point, that is major, major bust territory for a top 3 pick. Most admit that he can turn it around, but it will require change. We need to move him inside (and keep him there) and maybe we can save his career in a 49er uniform (but even then, what are you really doing besides maybe creating trade value? We aren't going to give big deals to both DTs if Thomas gets better there, and he'd still largely be a rotational lineman at that point, so I'm not really sure where the road leads with Thomas, regardless of how he does as a player, one of the reasons I'd be willing to trade him if the price was right - an offer I've thrown out there a couple of times being Thomas for Conley). 

You can certainly start to make judgments about a player in year 2. LIS, there aren't many that suddenly get drastically better without some sort of significant change being made (new scheme, new role in same scheme, new team, etc). Doesn't it mean it can't happen, which is why nobody I have seen on here has flat out said that it can't happen. Just means that it's unlikely, and people temper and adjust expectations moving forward. 

 

 

[49ers Finest]

I remember reading y2 post it earlier but I cannot remember and it's to confusing when I try to do it.

For strength of schedule and noncommon opponents, who should I be wanting to win/lose between us the raiders and jets