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2019 Draft Talk (Draft Order in OP)

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40 minutes ago, big9erfan said:

I have zero doubt that we'd have won at least as many games last year as you are projecting for this year - if only Garappolo had played for the full season. I think you are projecting a step backwards from what we would have done last year with JG as the full time QB. I just don't see us regressing. Last year I thought we'd win 5 or 6 and ended up with 6. Barring an injury to Jimmy I'm thinking 9 or 10 is realistic fo rthis year. 8 i s possible, but wouild be disappointing to me. 7 would be a HUGE disappointment.

I agree 100%. Before Jimmy, there were like 4 or 5 games that we lost by 3 points or less. If we could've won like 2 or 3 of them, we would've been in the hunt for a playoff spot. Fast forward to this season and we didn't lose anyone significant and we filled holes from the previous season. If anything, the Niners greatly improved and also get to tap into more than just a small chunk of Shanahan's playbook. I don't know if we make it to the playoffs or not, but I fully believe that the niners will be very competitive and are going to be a team that other teams will hate to face. 

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21 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

I agree 100%. Before Jimmy, there were like 4 or 5 games that we lost by 3 points or less. If we could've won like 2 or 3 of them, we would've been in the hunt for a playoff spot. Fast forward to this season and we didn't lose anyone significant and we filled holes from the previous season. If anything, the Niners greatly improved and also get to tap into more than just a small chunk of Shanahan's playbook. I don't know if we make it to the playoffs or not, but I fully believe that the niners will be very competitive and are going to be a team that other teams will hate to face. 

Disagree with the first bolded, agree with the second bolded. 

*edit*

Should clarify - disagree that we have greatly improved, acknowledge that we have the potential to be greatly improved. 

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I guess you could be a pessimist among optimists, Forge. To each their own.:P

If we were to do worse than 6-10 this season...that would be VERY disappointing. I want better than last year and I think it can happen. To see what Jimmy could do with so short a time in preparation...wow. Words cannot express. I was thinking we would be picking in the top 3 again...at first, I was disappointed we were winning when Jimmy G started. Then, I got wise and just enjoyed it. 

Anyway, with a full TC and offseason, Garoppolo should have a mastery of Shanny's O. That should be a pleasure to see. 

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25 minutes ago, Forge said:

Disagree with the first bolded, agree with the second bolded. 

*edit*

Should clarify - disagree that we have greatly improved, acknowledge that we have the potential to be greatly improved. 

How did the Niners not fill holes? 

  • Replaced Hyde with McKinnon: Upgrade. Fits the scheme and running style much better, better receiver than Hyde, too.
  • Replaced Beadles with Cooper: Upgrade. It remains to be seen how good Cooper is, but anything is better than Zane Beadles. 
  • Replaced Jonhson with Sherman: Upgrade. Yes, health factors into this, but if the Niners were really concerned with Sherman's health, they would've hedged their bet and signed another CB who could start. 
  • Replaced Kilgore with Richburg: Upgrade. Richburg is younger, fits the scheme, more productive, and has more upside than Kilgore. 
  • Replace everyone who played WILL with Smith/Warner: Upgrade. We didn't have Malcolm Smith all year and had to play scrubs at WILL. This year, we get Malcolm Smith back and also drafted Warner who could be a star at WILL

The only move we made that might not be an upgrade is replacing Brown with McGlinchey. It's certainly a huge upgrade in the run game, but a downgrade in the passing game. We also didn't make a splash EDGE acquisition and, in my opinion, we could've used another TE to fill out the depth chart. 

 

Where else didn't we fill holes?

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

How did the Niners not fill holes? 

  • Replaced Hyde with McKinnon: Upgrade. Fits the scheme and running style much better, better receiver than Hyde, too.
  • Replaced Beadles with Cooper: Upgrade. It remains to be seen how good Cooper is, but anything is better than Zane Beadles. 
  • Replaced Jonhson with Sherman: Upgrade. Yes, health factors into this, but if the Niners were really concerned with Sherman's health, they would've hedged their bet and signed another CB who could start. 
  • Replaced Kilgore with Richburg: Upgrade. Richburg is younger, fits the scheme, more productive, and has more upside than Kilgore. 
  • Replace everyone who played WILL with Smith/Warner: Upgrade. We didn't have Malcolm Smith all year and had to play scrubs at WILL. This year, we get Malcolm Smith back and also drafted Warner who could be a star at WILL

The only move we made that might not be an upgrade is replacing Brown with McGlinchey. It's certainly a huge upgrade in the run game, but a downgrade in the passing game. We also didn't make a splash EDGE acquisition and, in my opinion, we could've used another TE to fill out the depth chart. 

 

Where else didn't we fill holes?

  • Replaced Hoyer/Beathard with Garoppolo: UPGRADE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Basically the perfect fit at QB for Shanahan's flavor of O. 
Edited by Chrissooner49er

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24 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

How did the Niners not fill holes? 

  • Replaced Hyde with McKinnon: Upgrade. Fits the scheme and running style much better, better receiver than Hyde, too.
  • Replaced Beadles with Cooper: Upgrade. It remains to be seen how good Cooper is, but anything is better than Zane Beadles. 
  • Replaced Jonhson with Sherman: Upgrade. Yes, health factors into this, but if the Niners were really concerned with Sherman's health, they would've hedged their bet and signed another CB who could start. 
  • Replaced Kilgore with Richburg: Upgrade. Richburg is younger, fits the scheme, more productive, and has more upside than Kilgore. 
  • Replace everyone who played WILL with Smith/Warner: Upgrade. We didn't have Malcolm Smith all year and had to play scrubs at WILL. This year, we get Malcolm Smith back and also drafted Warner who could be a star at WILL

The only move we made that might not be an upgrade is replacing Brown with McGlinchey. It's certainly a huge upgrade in the run game, but a downgrade in the passing game. We also didn't make a splash EDGE acquisition and, in my opinion, we could've used another TE to fill out the depth chart. 

 

Where else didn't we fill holes?

McKinnon / Hyde is a lateral move for me, but will depend on usage etc etc. McKinnon is just not good at running the football in my opinion, and there is going to be some question regarding work load, so I want to see that. Not that Hyde was the end all be all, but he's a better true runner in my opinion. McKinnon is the better pass catching back for sure,  and a far more explosive player, which I'm going to enjoy, though I'd levy that Hyde is the better pass protector. Depending on usage, that can range anywhere from slight downgrade to major upgrade, but I don't know how this plays out yet, so I'm not going to just throw in the major upgrade assumption. 

Beadles / Cooper isn't even the right comparison. It should be Cooper / Fusco. And no, I don't think that's an upgrade. He's better in the depth department than Beadles (except Cooper is slated to be a starter), but I definitely don't think that he's better than Fusco from last year, and I don't know that he's better than what I was expecting from whom I thought was going to be the starters going into the year - Tomlinson / Garnett. Tomlinson is a largely average guard, Garnett is bad. Cooper has been bad. 

Sherman / Johnson. Sherman could have both of his legs amputated and he would still be an upgrade. As long as he's on the field in any way shape or form, this is an upgrade. The question will be how healthy he is and how big that upgrade is. If he's not healthy enough to be an average starting corner, how much better is that going to make us overall. Upgrade is upgrade, but poor play is still poor play. 

Kilgore / Richburg. This is actually very interesting, because my biggest issue with the offensive line was the short yardage in the running game, something that Richburg really shouldn't help a whole ton to be honest. But he'll make the rest of the areas much better. Definite upgrade over Kilgore. There could be a big difference here in how I project and feel about Centers to how Shanny feels about them in his scheme. Typically, centers are sort of meh to me. I value a good guard over a good center. But if the Center position is really that much more important in this scheme then there's going to be a disconnect there for how I feel about the upgrade over what actually occurs on the field. I can't really answer how big that jump is going to be because I have to see it on the field because we are talking about an isolated scheme variance as opposed to football as a whole, where I would take the better guard over better center. 

WILL - last I saw Smith, he was awful. I like Warner, I won't consider him an upgrade without ever seeing him on the field. Not an upgrade for me at this point in time - potential to be an upgrade. 

So I do think that we attempted to fill holes, I don't want to say that we didn't. It's not like that...I just don't think that we made significant upgrades, and it's a lot of potential and unknowns, which is why I said that we have the potential to be much better. But the idea of starting Jonathan Cooper at guard, Malcolm Smith at linebacker, etc.. Upgrades are upgrades, bad players are still bad players.  I don't think that the guys stepping into the shoes of the departed are significant upgrades if they are at all. If you upgrade from a bad player to another bad player, it's not really helping out a whole ton. We will see. Still a lot of unknown in this. 

So yes, EDGE is still a concern (and given how important it is to the game, I would have taken a singular upgrade at the edge / pass rushing spot overall all the upgrades you mentioned). Not our fault of course, there was just nothing there. SAM / Moneybacker is pretty weak. The SAM won't be on the field much of course, so it' snot that big of an issue moving forward, but the loss of Reid in his role as the moneybacker is a loss that I don't particularly love. Guards haven't been upgraded to me, but Shanny doesn't value them over much. We will see what kind of improvement that Richburg gives the line as a whole. Shanny knows his scheme better than I do. Also thought we could have used an NT upgrade, though I won't bemoan that all that much. Safety depth is a little scary right now. 

In theory, there are a lot of potential upgrades...but so far as I'm concerned right now, it's a lot of potential, nothing I see as definite. 

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30 minutes ago, Chrissooner49er said:

I guess you could be a pessimist among optimists, Forge. To each their own.:P

If we were to do worse than 6-10 this season...that would be VERY disappointing. I want better than last year and I think it can happen. To see what Jimmy could do with so short a time in preparation...wow. Words cannot express. I was thinking we would be picking in the top 3 again...at first, I was disappointed we were winning when Jimmy G started. Then, I got wise and just enjoyed it. 

Anyway, with a full TC and offseason, Garoppolo should have a mastery of Shanny's O. That should be a pleasure to see. 

Agree that worse than 6-10 would be majorly disappointing, nor do I expect that. I'm in that 7-9 / 8-8 range. If things break right, 9-7. I think things would have to break particularly brilliantly for us to go 10-6 or better. Not impossible, I just don't view it as likely. 

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54 minutes ago, Forge said:

McKinnon / Hyde is a lateral move for me, but will depend on usage etc etc. McKinnon is just not good at running the football in my opinion, and there is going to be some question regarding work load, so I want to see that. Not that Hyde was the end all be all, but he's a better true runner in my opinion. McKinnon is the better pass catching back for sure,  and a far more explosive player, which I'm going to enjoy, though I'd levy that Hyde is the better pass protector. Depending on usage, that can range anywhere from slight downgrade to major upgrade, but I don't know how this plays out yet, so I'm not going to just throw in the major upgrade assumption. 

Beadles / Cooper isn't even the right comparison. It should be Cooper / Fusco. And no, I don't think that's an upgrade. He's better in the depth department than Beadles (except Cooper is slated to be a starter), but I definitely don't think that he's better than Fusco from last year, and I don't know that he's better than what I was expecting from whom I thought was going to be the starters going into the year - Tomlinson / Garnett. Tomlinson is a largely average guard, Garnett is bad. Cooper has been bad. 

Sherman / Johnson. Sherman could have both of his legs amputated and he would still be an upgrade. As long as he's on the field in any way shape or form, this is an upgrade. The question will be how healthy he is and how big that upgrade is. If he's not healthy enough to be an average starting corner, how much better is that going to make us overall. Upgrade is upgrade, but poor play is still poor play. 

Kilgore / Richburg. This is actually very interesting, because my biggest issue with the offensive line was the short yardage in the running game, something that Richburg really shouldn't help a whole ton to be honest. But he'll make the rest of the areas much better. Definite upgrade over Kilgore. There could be a big difference here in how I project and feel about Centers to how Shanny feels about them in his scheme. Typically, centers are sort of meh to me. I value a good guard over a good center. But if the Center position is really that much more important in this scheme then there's going to be a disconnect there for how I feel about the upgrade over what actually occurs on the field. I can't really answer how big that jump is going to be because I have to see it on the field because we are talking about an isolated scheme variance as opposed to football as a whole, where I would take the better guard over better center. 

WILL - last I saw Smith, he was awful. I like Warner, I won't consider him an upgrade without ever seeing him on the field. Not an upgrade for me at this point in time - potential to be an upgrade. 

So I do think that we attempted to fill holes, I don't want to say that we didn't. It's not like that...I just don't think that we made significant upgrades, and it's a lot of potential and unknowns, which is why I said that we have the potential to be much better. But the idea of starting Jonathan Cooper at guard, Malcolm Smith at linebacker, etc.. Upgrades are upgrades, bad players are still bad players.  I don't think that the guys stepping into the shoes of the departed are significant upgrades if they are at all. If you upgrade from a bad player to another bad player, it's not really helping out a whole ton. We will see. Still a lot of unknown in this. 

So yes, EDGE is still a concern (and given how important it is to the game, I would have taken a singular upgrade at the edge / pass rushing spot overall all the upgrades you mentioned). Not our fault of course, there was just nothing there. SAM / Moneybacker is pretty weak. The SAM won't be on the field much of course, so it' snot that big of an issue moving forward, but the loss of Reid in his role as the moneybacker is a loss that I don't particularly love. Guards haven't been upgraded to me, but Shanny doesn't value them over much. We will see what kind of improvement that Richburg gives the line as a whole. Shanny knows his scheme better than I do. Also thought we could have used an NT upgrade, though I won't bemoan that all that much. Safety depth is a little scary right now. 

In theory, there are a lot of potential upgrades...but so far as I'm concerned right now, it's a lot of potential, nothing I see as definite. 

Actually the more realistic comp is Fusco/Garnett. I don't see Cooper as anything more than a back-up at his point. Garnett is the one who the staff seems is firmly behind and will get every opportunity this off-season and TC to cement himself as the starter. Cooper seems more like a quality back-up who could potentially surprise if thrust into a starting position due to injury, but isn't likely to be your everyday starter if everyone is healthy.

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16 minutes ago, 757-NINER said:

Actually the more realistic comp is Fusco/Garnett. I don't see Cooper as anything more than a back-up at his point. Garnett is the one who the staff seems is firmly behind and will get every opportunity this off-season and TC to cement himself as the starter. Cooper seems more like a quality back-up who could potentially surprise if thrust into a starting position due to injury, but isn't likely to be your everyday starter if everyone is healthy.

Word is, Cooper and Tomlinson are slated as the starters right now. I'm surprised by that, but it's the rumor. I'd be a little shocked if it played out that way, but that's where it is right now supposedly-

Quote

 Head coach Kyle Shanahan discussed the team’s guards, and his comments suggested that Laken Tomlinson and Jonathan Cooper will be the starters out of the gate.

Quote

Guards Laken Tomlinson and Jonathan Cooper will get the first crack at being the San Francisco 49ers' starting guards in 2018. Tomlinson is likely to be the left guard with newly-signed Jonathan Cooper at right guard, according to head coach Kyle Shanahan via 49ers.com.

 

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I hate these types of comparisons at this time of the year. You pretty much could sell most moves a team does as upgrades, but it doesn't work that way. What I look for is our depth at key positions. There are going to be injuries, but is the team built to withstand them? We have some solid depth at DL/S/WR/RB. The rest leaves a lot to be desired. I guess OL is okay, but maybe that is because the back ups at certain positions may be just as good as the starters lol. 

What we have going in our favor is having one of the absolute best offensive minds in the league with a promising QB who will have an entire offseason to work with. This offense to me should be top 5, if not top 7 at worst. Garoppolo will have solid weapons to work with, and we have good receiving options at all levels. WRs/Kittle/McKinnon/Juice Check. 

Defensively our secondary should be better, with the additions of Sherman/Reed, and Witherspoon going into his second season. But losing Reid hurts as he was really good down the stretch last season.

I like our LB depth better this season with the additions of Toomer/Warner and I guess Smith returning from his injury. And we certainly need depth with Foster getting a suspension plus missing a few other games with injuries.

The lack of pass rush will ultimately put a ceiling on the defense. At best this is probably a middle of the pack unit? Maybe a little better? With that type of unit, you better have a top notch offense to win around 10-11 games.

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Posted (edited)

Garoppolo + Shanahan = 10 wins. 

Good skill positions + only an at worst, maybe a 20-25th defense = Enough for 1 win. 

11-5. 

That's the math as I see it.

I think Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds I've seen in football. Something about what he gets out of his skill position players is magical. I don't trust all of his personnel calls, but it's hard to argue with how well it works (Garcon was on his way to only his 3rd 1,000 yard season in his 10-year career, Goodwin had a career year, 5th rounders Trent Taylor/George Kittle had pretty good debut years for 5th round rookies as examples from just our team last year - he's done this everywhere). 

I think Garoppolo is going to be an absolutely dominant quarterback. He does things few others can do, even in a limited seven-game career - he sees the field like few others (ability to read defenses, ability to move through progressions, look off defensive backs, sense pressure, move in pocket), he feels the game like few others (game situation, internal timing), and he has the ability to make people around him better in a way that few others do. Anyone who watched every game this year knows this to be true - the offensive line improved, the receivers stopped dropping balls, everyone produced more, and nobody was ever defeated. 

So to me - Shanahan + Garoppolo should be worth no less than 10 wins in any given year. It doesn't matter how it happens, it doesn't matter how terrible the defense, the offensive line might not need to look like a  hot mess, it just will - those two will pull off 10 wins. The football gods have spoken this. That is, so long as the football gods are not cruel to us (injury to Garoppolo). Those years, we might not have many wins at all. So...gotta stay on the good side of the football gods...

And I think as long as the defense doesn't force 30+-30+ shootouts every week, that should be worth one more win. There are good players there. Not great at important spots - but not terrible. Buckner, Tartt, Thomas, Foster (for 9-10 games), Armstead (for 6 games), Ward (for 3-5 games), Sherman (at 50% Richard Sherman), are all good players. Colbert and Witherspoon look to be promising young players with bright futures. Lots of fun wildcards in Malcolm Smith, Fred Warner, Tarvarius Moore, DJ Reed - all should be fun wildcards. Expect very little out of anyone else - just a little - not nothing - just need a little. That should be a 20-25th defense. That's good for one more win. 

Eleven wins. 

Now - this isn't a team that's going to get far. Not better than the Rams as a whole, so not a division winner. Just a wildcard. One that can probably get to the divisional round. 

But worth eleven wins.

So long as the football gods are merciful. Praise to them. Protect our Jimmy.

Edited by y2lamanaki
10 years for Garcon

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2 hours ago, y2lamanaki said:

Garoppolo + Shanahan = 10 wins. 

Good skill positions + only an at worst, maybe a 20-25th defense = Enough for 1 win. 

11-5. 

That's the math as I see it.

I think Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds I've seen in football. Something about what he gets out of his skill position players is magical. I don't trust all of his personnel calls, but it's hard to argue with how well it works (Garcon was on his way to only his 3rd 1,000 yard season in his 10-year career, Goodwin had a career year, 5th rounders Trent Taylor/George Kittle had pretty good debut years for 5th round rookies as examples from just our team last year - he's done this everywhere). 

I think Garoppolo is going to be an absolutely dominant quarterback. He does things few others can do, even in a limited seven-game career - he sees the field like few others (ability to read defenses, ability to move through progressions, look off defensive backs, sense pressure, move in pocket), he feels the game like few others (game situation, internal timing), and he has the ability to make people around him better in a way that few others do. Anyone who watched every game this year knows this to be true - the offensive line improved, the receivers stopped dropping balls, everyone produced more, and nobody was ever defeated. 

So to me - Shanahan + Garoppolo should be worth no less than 10 wins in any given year. It doesn't matter how it happens, it doesn't matter how terrible the defense, the offensive line might not need to look like a  hot mess, it just will - those two will pull off 10 wins. The football gods have spoken this. That is, so long as the football gods are not cruel to us (injury to Garoppolo). Those years, we might not have many wins at all. So...gotta stay on the good side of the football gods...

And I think as long as the defense doesn't force 30+-30+ shootouts every week, that should be worth one more win. There are good players there. Not great at important spots - but not terrible. Buckner, Tartt, Thomas, Foster (for 9-10 games), Armstead (for 6 games), Ward (for 3-5 games), Sherman (at 50% Richard Sherman), are all good players. Colbert and Witherspoon look to be promising young players with bright futures. Lots of fun wildcards in Malcolm Smith, Fred Warner, Tarvarius Moore, DJ Reed - all should be fun wildcards. Expect very little out of anyone else - just a little - not nothing - just need a little. That should be a 20-25th defense. That's good for one more win. 

Eleven wins. 

Now - this isn't a team that's going to get far. Not better than the Rams as a whole, so not a division winner. Just a wildcard. One that can probably get to the divisional round. 

But worth eleven wins.

So long as the football gods are merciful. Praise to them. Protect our Jimmy.

You do good math.

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10 hours ago, Chrissooner49er said:
  • Replaced Hoyer/Beathard with Garoppolo: UPGRADE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Basically the perfect fit at QB for Shanahan's flavor of O. 

Yes! This is the upgrade that makes 9 or 10 wins a possibility this year.

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@Forge I understand your reasoning. We could have done more to make this a complete team this off-season, and obviously I agree the lack of an edge rusher could really be a hinderence, especially if we get into shootout type games where other teams feel like they need to throw the ball a lot to keep up. 

With that being said, our inside pass rush has the potential to be elite. Buckner made incredible strides last year with his overall game. His pad level and hand technique were greatly improved. Thomas had some nice plays when he was rushing from the inside towards the end of the year, and considering he got to camp late last year, you would hope that this year he would hone in on his craft and make a similar jump that Buckner made last year. If that happens, then maybe all we really need on the edge is someone fast with bend who can force QBs to step into the pocket? That's the hope at least. 

As others have said, it's a quarterback driven league, so if we can get elite production from Garoppolo and the rest of the offense in turn, then we will be dangerous. I mean, look at Green Bay. Their roster has been pretty poor for a number of years now. They haven't had a true workhorse RB in what, 8 years? They had good WRs, and they certainly have a talented OL right now, but they had an elite QB and a wide open offense so they won a lot of games with a sub-par defense and holes in other areas on the roster. 

To put it simply, the best way to win games with holes on your roster, is with a coach and a QB. The hope is that both are generational type guys and that they stick around for a long time. 

 

Maybe I'm just feeling so optimistic because I just rematched the Jacksonville game. Holy smokes that was a fun game 

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5 hours ago, N4L said:

@Forge I understand your reasoning. We could have done more to make this a complete team this off-season, and obviously I agree the lack of an edge rusher could really be a hinderence, especially if we get into shootout type games where other teams feel like they need to throw the ball a lot to keep up. 

With that being said, our inside pass rush has the potential to be elite. Buckner made incredible strides last year with his overall game. His pad level and hand technique were greatly improved. Thomas had some nice plays when he was rushing from the inside towards the end of the year, and considering he got to camp late last year, you would hope that this year he would hone in on his craft and make a similar jump that Buckner made last year. If that happens, then maybe all we really need on the edge is someone fast with bend who can force QBs to step into the pocket? That's the hope at least. 

As others have said, it's a quarterback driven league, so if we can get elite production from Garoppolo and the rest of the offense in turn, then we will be dangerous. I mean, look at Green Bay. Their roster has been pretty poor for a number of years now. They haven't had a true workhorse RB in what, 8 years? They had good WRs, and they certainly have a talented OL right now, but they had an elite QB and a wide open offense so they won a lot of games with a sub-par defense and holes in other areas on the roster. 

To put it simply, the best way to win games with holes on your roster, is with a coach and a QB. The hope is that both are generational type guys and that they stick around for a long time. 

 

Maybe I'm just feeling so optimistic because I just rematched the Jacksonville game. Holy smokes that was a fun game 

5

The Patriots have been doing it for years. You look at their team without Belichick and Brady and it's a bottom-feeder roster. As soon as those two are gone, that team is no longer good. I'm not saying that Shanahan and Jimmy G are at the level of Belichick and Brady, but my point is that a really good coach and QB can mask a lot of deficiencies. Shanahan and Jimmy G give the chance to win 9 or more games this year. 

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