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2019 Draft Talk (Draft Order in OP)


TecmoSuperJoe

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6 minutes ago, DirtyDez said:

I thought you posted that tweet last week in the draft forum but it was @49erurtaza.  We had a laugh about a guy claiming that the Cards “confirmed” their pick with him.  Sorry all you 49er fans look the same. :P

I'm still the pretty one, though. 

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7 hours ago, John232 said:

Anyone else listen to the Better Rivals podcast? I generally like them, but maaan..I was getting so incredibly triggered listening to them this past week. They were VERY SURE that trading back and taking Baker or Greedy Williams at 6 (or 10/11) would be the best move...I mean..I love a good corner and I think they're worth top ten picks, but I get sooo triggered by chasing value for the sake of chasing it. 

I've been listening to them for a couple of years. I think they're the most insightful people to listen to when it comes to the 49ers. At least in terms of what stuff is happening on the field of play. David works for PFF now even. As for what they think is best with trading back, personally I'd rather have Bosa. The chance to get another Justin Smith type player is just too good to pass up in my opinion. The team does need a lot of help. Especially in the secondary, which is horrible. Witherspoon took a step back, Verett is a good candidate to get hurt, Sherman is 31, and Ward/Colbert aren't the answer at safety. The team needs help. 

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A drop back from 2 to 11 would have to net us something like a 2020 1st, 2019 3rd and more I would think. Trade value points wise the number 2 pick is valued at 2600 with pick 11 at 1250 and the Bengals 3rd rounder at 230. That would make the trade 2600 points for pick 2 compared to 1480 from picks this year from the Bengals plus whatever their 1st rounder next year would be valued at, 1120 is the remainder equating to a 13th or 14th 1st rounder next year. I think I’d be all over that trade. 

I love Hakeem Butler but I’m not sure he’s my target at 11, I’d probably take whatever pass rusher was still available in Sweat, Burns, Ferrell and then use our 2nd and newly acquired 3rd to trade back into the 1st and grab Butler then. Our 2nd is worth 540 and the Bengals 3rd again at 230 which equates to the 22nd pick in the 1st round. Again this all based off the trade value chart and I’m not sure how accurate this is to use in regards to trades now a days but I would assume that’s atleast a baseline for trades.

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10 hours ago, typecast said:

Rumor - Zac Taylor and the Bengals are set to move on from Andy Dalton and are looking for a trade partner to move up and select Haskins. The team they are connected to? The 49ers. No matter what happens at the #1 pick, the 49ers may scrap their plan of taking Bosa/Williams/Allen, move back to #11, and take a big-bodied receiver. Their target is not D.K. Metcalf, but instead Hakeem Butler. Most teams have Butler graded out as a 2nd round guy but the 49ers, Raiders, and Patriots are crazy about him.

The trade would not tick me off, but the prospect would...too many drops to be a 1st round (or at least that high in the 1st) pick. 

Don't mind the trade, believe it is too high a pick for Butler, though. >:(

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8 hours ago, PapaShogun said:

I've been listening to them for a couple of years. I think they're the most insightful people to listen to when it comes to the 49ers. At least in terms of what stuff is happening on the field of play. David works for PFF now even. As for what they think is best with trading back, personally I'd rather have Bosa. The chance to get another Justin Smith type player is just too good to pass up in my opinion. The team does need a lot of help. Especially in the secondary, which is horrible. Witherspoon took a step back, Verett is a good candidate to get hurt, Sherman is 31, and Ward/Colbert aren't the answer at safety. The team needs help. 

I tried quoting @John232 post, but it's not working, but yes, I listened to that episode but couldn't finish it due to how dumb it was. I really like Oscar, I think he's great and very intelligent with his thoughts on the niners, but man, I think David's pessimistic personality weighs down that show. He hates everything, literally everything. 

Their thoughts on the CB's in this draft, especially at the top are weird. Drafting DeAndre Baker in the top 10? Are you for real?? I know CB is one of the most valuable and important positions in football, but I really can't see him being that high and there have been rumors about his lack of maturity and dedication that could lead to him falling out of the 1st round. 

If we would trade down and take Baker or Williams and pass up on Burns, Sweat, or Allen, I would be livid.

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1 hour ago, NinerNation21 said:

I tried quoting @John232 post, but it's not working, but yes, I listened to that episode but couldn't finish it due to how dumb it was. I really like Oscar, I think he's great and very intelligent with his thoughts on the niners, but man, I think David's pessimistic personality weighs down that show. He hates everything, literally everything. 

Their thoughts on the CB's in this draft, especially at the top are weird. Drafting DeAndre Baker in the top 10? Are you for real?? I know CB is one of the most valuable and important positions in football, but I really can't see him being that high and there have been rumors about his lack of maturity and dedication that could lead to him falling out of the 1st round. 

If we would trade down and take Baker or Williams and pass up on Burns, Sweat, or Allen, I would be livid.

I haven't heard anything about a lack of maturity and dedication with regards to Baker, maybe because he didn't play in his bowl game? He wouldn't have played for Kirby if he lacked either of those things which is why Deangalo Gibbs now plays for Tennessee. Baker is going to be a good corner for someone for a long time.

Ty Law is my comp for him. Physical instinctive corner without elite athletic traits. 

BTW, maybe its been mentioned in one of the other threads but that replay review of pass interference is huge imo.

 

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2 hours ago, NinerNation21 said:

I tried quoting @John232 post, but it's not working, but yes, I listened to that episode but couldn't finish it due to how dumb it was. I really like Oscar, I think he's great and very intelligent with his thoughts on the niners, but man, I think David's pessimistic personality weighs down that show. He hates everything, literally everything. 

Their thoughts on the CB's in this draft, especially at the top are weird. Drafting DeAndre Baker in the top 10? Are you for real?? I know CB is one of the most valuable and important positions in football, but I really can't see him being that high and there have been rumors about his lack of maturity and dedication that could lead to him falling out of the 1st round. 

If we would trade down and take Baker or Williams and pass up on Burns, Sweat, or Allen, I would be livid.

!00% agree.  They have become unbearingly negative to the point where it's starting to really mess with their analysis. This corner podcast being a great example of that. And self-depreciation can be funny, but it's edging on being miserable. They also kept bringing up how we have to continue to throw resources at the problem, but kind of brushed over the Verrett signing. Furthermore, the general reliance on PFF has become extremely annoying. PFF grades are treated as gospel because David works there now..not a great way to make assessments. I can remember how ecstatic they were with the picks in 2016 because they were all PFF darlings. 

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1 hour ago, John232 said:

!00% agree.  They have become unbearingly negative to the point where it's starting to really mess with their analysis. This corner podcast being a great example of that. And self-depreciation can be funny, but it's edging on being miserable. They also kept bringing up how we have to continue to throw resources at the problem, but kind of brushed over the Verrett signing. Furthermore, the general reliance on PFF has become extremely annoying. PFF grades are treated as gospel because David works there now..not a great way to make assessments. I can remember how ecstatic they were with the picks in 2016 because they were all PFF darlings. 

I like PFF as it's one of the few quantifiers of NFL stats and it dives a little deeper into analysis than most stat outlets, but I agree that it's not the end-all-be-all. I used really love this show and I liked it even more once David left, but now I find myself listening to Stick to Football more often. I know Matt Miller is a polarizing person in the NFL world, but it's a fun show, it comes out three times a week, and he shares alot of news and info he gets from sources every show. It's a really great listen during draft season.

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1 minute ago, NYRaider said:

Who do you guys expect to be the pick? Bosa? Any chance you guys go Allen or Williams? 

All are very reasonable expectations. Probably something like 40% Bosa, 30% QW, 20% trade back, 10% J Allen.

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43 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

I like PFF as it's one of the few quantifiers of NFL stats and it dives a little deeper into analysis than most stat outlets, but I agree that it's not the end-all-be-all. I used really love this show and I liked it even more once David left, but now I find myself listening to Stick to Football more often. I know Matt Miller is a polarizing person in the NFL world, but it's a fun show, it comes out three times a week, and he shares alot of news and info he gets from sources every show. It's a really great listen during draft season.

I'm going to have to check that out today. I listen to the locked on 49ers and locked on draft as well. Locked on 49ers is pretty solid, doesn't delve as deep and it's a one mand show 3/4 shows a week, but Brian Peacock is a little more open in his thoughts, imo. 

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PFF believes the way you win in this league is having good coverage and having a franchise level QB that leads you to a top 10 offense. Their stats showed our pressure rate was actually average but coverage on the back end graded out the worst in the league. We had the most coverage breakdowns and were the worst depending opposing #2 WRs. So that is why David or Oscar or both of them prefer taking a CB in the top 10. The value of an above average CB>value of an above average edge rusher.

But I'm not fully convinced with that line of thinking. Don't doubt you need good coverage of course, but value of the players matter as well. If Bosa or Williams are levels above Williams/Baker in terms of how the team grades them, then you don't just take a corner here because the stats show good coverage trumps good pass rush. 

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