2019 Draft Talk (Draft Order in OP)

[48 1/2ers]

2 minutes ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

and he had a heart condition that popped up recently....

Thats right I forgot about that, didn't sound like it was a serious red flag from that last I read on that. 

[Chrissooner49er]

7 minutes ago, 48 1/2ers said:

Thats right I forgot about that, didn't sound like it was a serious red flag from that last I read on that. 

It wasn't serious enough to send him home from the Combine.

Sweat is one of those whom I think has improved since he declared for the draft. He was rather inconsistent in a lot of game film last season. However, he goes to both the Senior Bowl (at least in the practices) and Combine and shines. He displayed better footwork, hand usage and focus. I would be fine with picking him if Lynch, Shanny and company trade down. Why? It's difficult to get what he has: Length, power and quickness. The refinement he has shown in technique the last couple months is impressive. If he can be Aldon-like, it would be fantastic. Yes, he does have the mysterious transgression that got him dismissed from Mich St., but perhaps he has already learned what Aldon would not? 

[Forge]

59 minutes ago, 48 1/2ers said:

Senior Bowl crush? 

If he wasn't a JUCO guy I feel like he'd be in contention for #2 overall. I need to watch more of him. 

He wasn't a juco guy. He was at Michigan State and transferred to Ole Miss. He was a three star recruit as a tight end. 

[Forge]

43 minutes ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

and he had a heart condition that popped up recently....

It's pretty much been cleared. Teams were aware of it, wasn't expected to damage his stock at all. Seems minor, not like the Hurst issue. 

[BayRaider]

I’m against trading but a lot of our fans and media peeps wanna trade 35 to the Niners for Pick 2 and get Bosa. 

So basically... you guys want Bosa or Q and Pick 35? The latter option seems like a no brainer but I’m not a Niner fan. 

[48 1/2ers]

22 minutes ago, Forge said:

He wasn't a juco guy. He was at Michigan State and transferred to Ole Miss. He was a three star recruit as a tight end. 

Well he was a juco guy, but youre right he started at MSU, then was kick off the team in the offseason after his sophomore year. Then went to junior college for a year before signing on at the other MSU. 

https://247sports.com/Player/Montez-Sweat-32013/junior-college-181137/

[Forge]

Just now, 48 1/2ers said:

Well he was a juco guy, but youre right he started at MSU, then was kick off the team in the offseason after his sophomore year. Then went to junior college for a year before signing on at the other MSU. 

https://247sports.com/Player/Montez-Sweat-32013/junior-college-181137/

Oh, I thought you meant JUCO with regard to starting there. 

[y2lamanaki]

13 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

I’m against trading but a lot of our fans and media peeps wanna trade 35 to the Niners for Pick 2 and get Bosa. 

So basically... you guys want Bosa or Q and Pick 35? The latter option seems like a no brainer but I’m not a Niner fan. 

Bosa. Only because that trade sucks. You would need to add an early 3rd to make up the value which you don't have. So either the trade needs to be #4 and #24 (which, the difference between #4 and #2 is the worth of #21 overall, so you would actually receive more value) or it needs to be #4, #37, and a 2020 2nd for #2.

But I would take either of those two trades and draft someone other than Williams. Or - if #24 is offered, take Williams at #4, use a 3rd to trade up from #24 and grab a guy like Farrell, Sweat, or Burns in the teens. 

[Forge]

28 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

I’m against trading but a lot of our fans and media peeps wanna trade 35 to the Niners for Pick 2 and get Bosa. 

So basically... you guys want Bosa or Q and Pick 35? The latter option seems like a no brainer but I’m not a Niner fan. 

I think this largely, largely depends on how you feel about Q and whether or not you want to pick him from the start. Someone like @J-ALL-DAY would be fine with this, because he'd prefer QW at 2 overall anyway. So for him, it's like getting a free second round pick (and an early one at that).. I'm fine with Q being the pick, because I understand that logic of him being a special player, but that's not the route I would prefer to take (which is Bosa). So the problem here for me is that if I make this trade, I lose out on the best two edge rushers in the draft quite possibly. Now, I'm probably the highest on Sweat in this forum, and @oldman9er is really high on Ferrell, but I think 4 may be a touch high on each of those guys as well. So If I were to make this deal, I'd kind of like to get a secondary deal in place to drop from 4 to 6 or 7 or something. I'd drop down 2/3 spots, pick up a second next year with additional picks, then take the Ferrell / Sweat / someone like that. If QW happened to drop down that far, I'd be all over that, of course. 

Another problem here is that this value is actually slightly off, as @y2lamanaki said. The trade shoudl be 35 + third rounder or so by the old trade chart, and the same for the Rich Hill trade chart (was created based on made trades). So no, I don't think I'm making this deal and passing up the premiere guys in this draft. There needs to be more coming back. 

[TecmoSuperJoe]

5 hours ago, John232 said:

!00% agree.  They have become unbearingly negative to the point where it's starting to really mess with their analysis. This corner podcast being a great example of that. And self-depreciation can be funny, but it's edging on being miserable. They also kept bringing up how we have to continue to throw resources at the problem, but kind of brushed over the Verrett signing. Furthermore, the general reliance on PFF has become extremely annoying. PFF grades are treated as gospel because David works there now..not a great way to make assessments. I can remember how ecstatic they were with the picks in 2016 because they were all PFF darlings. 

In regards to Verrett, that's not true. Even before he was signed, they mentioned that in a weak FA class for corners, he was the best option. In the podcast they did after he was signed, they were pretty happy with the pickup. 

[Forge]

Pretty cool experience if you have the money. 

[John232]

28 minutes ago, PapaShogun said:

In regards to Verrett, that's not true. Even before he was signed, they mentioned that in a weak FA class for corners, he was the best option. In the podcast they did after he was signed, they were pretty happy with the pickup. 

I know the pod prior they talked about Verrett and liked it, but I’m saying their last pod, logically made very little sense. They’ve been campaigning for the 49ers to draft a corner on a trade back because according them, they need to grow as many resources as possible at the problem. I’m saying that sounds good, but when you consider the implications of opportunity cost and cutting a young corner we just drafted or cutting a young corner we just drafted..not smart reseoucr management: sure draft a corner in the sixth..or maybe find a nickle in the 4th.. but in a weak class, mindlessly tthrowing capital a position does not fix it. Verrett was a great pickup. Akhello stabilized and Moore/Reed were rookies. If we draft a first round corner one of those guys is gone and we still have gaping holes at defensive end.

 

They glossed over Verrett in their last pod because it undermines what they think is an intelligent move in trading back and reaching for a corner.

[rudyZ]

19 hours ago, 757-NINER said:

Bingo!

And I'm not even sure about 10-12 per year. I think if he has other peices around him he could. A very good to dominant DT inside to help him, yes. But if he's your premier pass-rusher no, I think he'll have years where he might not reach double-digits. I see him as a slightly better Chris Long.

It seems that to most people, he's either an 8-10 sack guy, or 10-12. Why not 8-12? Honestly, if he continues with the injury history he and his brother have collected, I can see him having years with 5-6 sacks, and then one or two years where the team really clicks (I mean on offense and defense), and he tops out at 14. He's safe in the sense that you don't have to worry about the quality of play. If he hits a drought, he won't be useless on the field, he'll still be a pretty good player against the run, and generate pressure, even if he doesn't pick up the sacks (think of Buckner in 2017, when he generated tons of pressure, but couldn't quite finish it). So yeah, he'll be a very good player, but not necessarily the sack artist we would like to have. He won't be the Aldon to DeFo's Justin Smith. If anything, that will be DeeFo(rd). The question is: do we need him to be a sack artist, and if he isn't, is he worth that high of a pick? Would Josh Allen be a better pick, in the sense that he has more versatility, could probably play in space as a SAM, bring speed around the bend to reap the benefit of the inside pressure created by Buck and Solly? Then again, is that worth that high of pick as well?

If there's a trade back offer worth our while, that's what I leaning towards right now. I think DeFo and DeeFo is what our defense will be built around for the next few years. Whichever pass rusher we add will be a complementary player, at least for the immediate future. If we trade down, maybe we can add an impact player who won't be secondary to the other players featured by our D. I don't know... maybe we can never have enough pass rusher. I feel like we're in a position where it's really really hard to lose. Then again, we were sitting at #2 two years ago, and I feel Lynch managed to lose that one. 

[rudyZ]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

Pretty cool experience if you have the money. 

I'd also accept $22000 for two guys to hang with me. Let's make it a round number, 20k. We can play a round of golf on my course. I'm a decent charity.

[TecmoSuperJoe]

2 hours ago, John232 said:

I know the pod prior they talked about Verrett and liked it, but I’m saying their last pod, logically made very little sense. They’ve been campaigning for the 49ers to draft a corner on a trade back because according them, they need to grow as many resources as possible at the problem. I’m saying that sounds good, but when you consider the implications of opportunity cost and cutting a young corner we just drafted or cutting a young corner we just drafted..not smart reseoucr management: sure draft a corner in the sixth..or maybe find a nickle in the 4th.. but in a weak class, mindlessly tthrowing capital a position does not fix it. Verrett was a great pickup. Akhello stabilized and Moore/Reed were rookies. If we draft a first round corner one of those guys is gone and we still have gaping holes at defensive end.

 

They glossed over Verrett in their last pod because it undermines what they think is an intelligent move in trading back and reaching for a corner.

I didn't get that feeling at all. Verrett is a great pickup for the price, but he has never been healthy. He has a lot to prove. The secondary as a whole still needs immense help even after his signing. Doesn't mean spend a day one pick, but the group needs help.