2019 Draft Talk (Draft Order in OP)

[Forge]

10 hours ago, N4L said:

I didn't realize he played so many snaps. That does change how I view him to be honest

Blair is better than Marsh. Blair's numbers were pretty much in line with his career, whereas I think that Marsh's numbers were the best of his career in regards to his actual sack rate, though both have limited samples it's hard to draw from. 

Blair sack rate numbers - 1 sack / 104 snaps (2016), 1 sack / 70 snaps (2017), 1 sack / 97 snaps (2018)

Marsh's figures were slightly worse overall. 1 sack / 129 snaps (2016), 1/152 snaps (2017), 1 sack / 100 snaps (2018). 

Also, Marsh nabbed nearly half of his sacks (2.5) against the Raiders (Blair did have one snap in that game as well). I wouldn't be surprised if Marsh saw a higher percentage of pass play snaps as well, though I don't have a breakdown or anything. As Justone indicated, he's best suited as a DE #3 type role with some situational pass rushing. But that's fine. If you can get 5.5 sacks from your back up 5 tech playing about 50% of your snaps, I think that's pretty solid. 

[Forge]

33 minutes ago, DTMW78 said:

So if Bosa goes 1st and there's no trade down available do you go with Allen?

Either is fine. I'd probably lean QW at that point though, maybe put out some feelers pre draft on what we could potentially get for Armstead / Solly at that point. Would really be fine with either though. 

[Forge]

13 hours ago, Chrissooner49er said:

Then, Q Wms just makes Armstead, Thomas and others redundant. Interior pressure is a luxury while edge pressure is an absolute necessity

This has swung the other way. Most people would covet the interior rush more so than the edge rush, it's just significantly harder to find. There's actually a thread in the comparison forum for it. With the way offenses have developed, it's more vital than ever to get to the quarterback in a hurry, and the quickest way in which to do that is through the interior. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

Here is the thing though, Bosa isn't going #1. Murray is going #1. Obviously VERY likely to the Cardinals or whoever they trade the pick to. 

We're taking Bosa and then the draft really starts after that. Jets either trade down or take Allen and then Raiders may end up getting the best player in the draft in Williams. 

With Lance now reporting teams aren't that high on Haskins, the Bengals may not need to trade up to get him. Still not convinced about that but Lance is as legit as they come. 

[Forge]

Just now, J-ALL-DAY said:

Here is the thing though, Bosa isn't going #1. Murray is going #1. Obviously VERY likely to the Cardinals or whoever they trade the pick to. 

We're taking Bosa and then the draft really starts after that. Jets either trade down or take Allen and then Raiders may end up getting the best player in the draft in Williams. 

With Lance now reporting teams aren't that high on Haskins, the Bengals may not need to trade up to get him. Still not convinced about that but Lance is as legit as they come. 

You're starting to hear more and more stuff about how teams are evaluating players (particularly the quarterbacks). Yeah, there's been a rather lukewarm rumor mill on Haskins. I think he could slip. Meanwhile the reports are that clubs are much higher on Jones than the draftnik community is, and people are saying that they should expect to hear his name called higher than people think. Obviously all rumors at this point, but I agree that right now, it sounds like Haskins is slipping behind some people. Lock's stock appears to have held steady so far, though I've seen him go anywhere from #2 (after a trade with the raiders LOL) to late first, so there's some huge variance on him. 

[49erurtaza]

3 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Here is the thing though, Bosa isn't going #1. Murray is going #1. Obviously VERY likely to the Cardinals or whoever they trade the pick to. 

We're taking Bosa and then the draft really starts after that. Jets either trade down or take Allen and then Raiders may end up getting the best player in the draft in Williams. 

With Lance now reporting teams aren't that high on Haskins, the Bengals may not need to trade up to get him. Still not convinced about that but Lance is as legit as they come. 

He also said another QB might be the 2nd QB taken in Lock. So we will see how true.

[J-ALL-DAY]

4 minutes ago, Forge said:

You're starting to hear more and more stuff about how teams are evaluating players (particularly the quarterbacks). Yeah, there's been a rather lukewarm rumor mill on Haskins. I think he could slip. Meanwhile the reports are that clubs are much higher on Jones than the draftnik community is, and people are saying that they should expect to hear his name called higher than people think. Obviously all rumors at this point, but I agree that right now, it sounds like Haskins is slipping behind some people. Lock's stock appears to have held steady so far, though I've seen him go anywhere from #2 (after a trade with the raiders LOL) to late first, so there's some huge variance on him. 

Raiders are super interesting here. Do they go QB or a blue chip prospect in Williams? Is Lock really an upgrade over Carr? I mean Gruden likely will want his own QB soon but is it in this draft? Taking Haskins would make sense as he could sit a year and then take over when the team goes to Vegas, but do they even like him? 

5 minutes ago, 49erurtaza said:

He also said another QB might be the 2nd QB taken in Lock. So we will see how true.

Yeah, the Broncos seem to be big fans of his and the Raiders may as well. So definitely could see him as the 2nd QB taken. 

[rudyZ]

14 hours ago, Chrissooner49er said:

Interior pressure is a luxury while edge pressure is an absolute necessity.

And the thing is, we already do have interior pressure. So it isn't choosing between inside or outside pressure, it's between more inside pressure than we already have (with Buckner, and hopefully with Thomas) and more outside pressure, which we haven't had much of ever since Aldon crashed into a tree (or a mailbox?) while drunk. DeeFo does weigh into this equation, now, but we could use some redundancy in that aspect of our defense.

[DTMW78]

In the mock draft the Raiders moved up to #1 for Bosa, that's not beyond the realms of possibility imo.

I don't see why they would go QB when they have Carr. Gotta give him a shot with all the new pieces they have.

[Justone2]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

Blair is better than Marsh. Blair's numbers were pretty much in line with his career, whereas I think that Marsh's numbers were the best of his career in regards to his actual sack rate, though both have limited samples it's hard to draw from. 

Blair sack rate numbers - 1 sack / 104 snaps (2016), 1 sack / 70 snaps (2017), 1 sack / 97 snaps (2018)

Marsh's figures were slightly worse overall. 1 sack / 129 snaps (2016), 1/152 snaps (2017), 1 sack / 100 snaps (2018). 

Also, Marsh nabbed nearly half of his sacks (2.5) against the Raiders (Blair did have one snap in that game as well). I wouldn't be surprised if Marsh saw a higher percentage of pass play snaps as well, though I don't have a breakdown or anything. As Justone indicated, he's best suited as a DE #3 type role with some situational pass rushing. But that's fine. If you can get 5.5 sacks from your back up 5 tech playing about 50% of your snaps, I think that's pretty solid. 

Blair had 534  total snaps of which 338 where pass rushing snaps and 180 run snaps. Other 16 where coverage. Marsh had 550 snaps with a 370, 131, 49 split. 

[Forge]

Just now, Justone2 said:

Blair had 534  total snaps of which 338 where pass rushing snaps and 180 run snaps. Other 16 where coverage. Marsh had 550 snaps with a 370, 131, 49 split. 

Makes sense. I'm not overly surprised. I figured Marsh had slightly more as that was his central role. Great data. Thanks for the info. 

[TecmoSuperJoe]

4 hours ago, Forge said:

This has swung the other way. Most people would covet the interior rush more so than the edge rush, it's just significantly harder to find. There's actually a thread in the comparison forum for it. With the way offenses have developed, it's more vital than ever to get to the quarterback in a hurry, and the quickest way in which to do that is through the interior. 

Has it? Might want to read this. Pretty interesting. 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-edge-vs-interior-which-pass-rusher-reigns-supreme

[Forge]

5 minutes ago, PapaShogun said:

Has it? Might want to read this. Pretty interesting. 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-edge-vs-interior-which-pass-rusher-reigns-supreme

I was talking about what people want, referencing the thread in the comparison forum.  Sorry if that didn't come through in how I wrote it.  Though I will say, I'm actually fascinated by the speed aspect of this article showing that interior pressure may still actually be the slower of the two. I would not have expected that at all. 

You should post this thread in the comparison forum in that thread. Some good data here. 

[sherm]

1 hour ago, PapaShogun said:

Has it? Might want to read this. Pretty interesting. 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-edge-vs-interior-which-pass-rusher-reigns-supreme

Great post. Give me the edge guy. 

[N4L]

5 hours ago, rudyZ said:

And the thing is, we already do have interior pressure. So it isn't choosing between inside or outside pressure, it's between more inside pressure than we already have (with Buckner, and hopefully with Thomas) and more outside pressure, which we haven't had much of ever since Aldon crashed into a tree (or a mailbox?) while drunk. DeeFo does weigh into this equation, now, but we could use some redundancy in that aspect of our defense.

I was going to post this exact same thing, except with more rambling and worse grammar lol