2019 Draft Talk (Draft Order in OP)

[Forge]

5 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

If we have the 2nd pick, then definitely look to trade down with the Giants or Jaguars who will potentially want a QB there.

Then take Pooollllitttttteeeeeeeeeeeee and go from there.

 

I wish we got to see every teams big board. I'm really curious whether or not the staff would have Polite or Josh Allen higher. 

[Justone2]

41 minutes ago, Forge said:

But I don't know why the two teams picking in the top 10 that need quarterbacks (Jags, Giants), would trade up that high. Right now, 1-6, your teams are Niners / Cards / Raiders / Falcons / Jets / Buffalo. With the exception of the Raiders, none of those teams even potentially has a quarterback question (and I think the raiders only do if they get a good trade offer on Carr, which I'm not sure happens). So if you're the Giants, picking at 10, your trade up spot is really more or less 5-6 at this point. To move from 10-1, you are giving up just an absolute ton (you're talking this years first, next years first, probably this years second as well, at minimum). 

So I agree, I think the move may be to move down some if we can find a taker for the draft slot if we don't pick 1 and Bosa isn't on the board. The nice thing is, unlike the Raiders, there is at least a possibility that the Cards don't go Bosa. While Jones / Bosa would be terrifying on the edges, they have other positions that need help for sure and a secondary edge rusher isn't a requirement in that regard. 

I think it has more to do with not wanting to lose a guy and it will probably depend on how the QB's will get evaluated. And if they would be willing to trade to 2 they probably are willing to trade to 1 becuase the evaluation they have on him is a absolute franchise changer. But for me if Bosa is there at our pick we 100% have to grab him unless we get an absolute massive steal. Otherwise i would like to see if we can get to trade back to still grab a edge.

[JIllg]

49 minutes ago, Forge said:

I wish we got to see every teams big board. I'm really curious whether or not the staff would have Polite or Josh Allen higher. 

Or Clelin Farrell. I agree with you that I'd prefer Allen and Polite (for one, I see them beat tackles more often on tape), but Farrell has the sort of body and history that some teams may find more attractive.

[John232]

53 minutes ago, Forge said:

But I don't know why the two teams picking in the top 10 that need quarterbacks (Jags, Giants), would trade up that high. Right now, 1-6, your teams are Niners / Cards / Raiders / Falcons / Jets / Buffalo. With the exception of the Raiders, none of those teams even potentially has a quarterback question (and I think the raiders only do if they get a good trade offer on Carr, which I'm not sure happens). So if you're the Giants, picking at 10, your trade up spot is really more or less 5-6 at this point. To move from 10-1, you are giving up just an absolute ton (you're talking this years first, next years first, probably this years second as well, at minimum). 

So I agree, I think the move may be to move down some if we can find a taker for the draft slot if we don't pick 1 and Bosa isn't on the board. The nice thing is, unlike the Raiders, there is at least a possibility that the Cards don't go Bosa. While Jones / Bosa would be terrifying on the edges, they have other positions that need help for sure and a secondary edge rusher isn't a requirement in that regard. 

Well, it's only 5-6 if you don't think other teams are working on trading up too. This is where it sort of becomes prisoners dilemma-esque (or game theory??). The best possible route to ensuring you have your QB is trading up to #1 or #2 (assuming we end up at 2, Bosa goes #1), 

 

Jags(7), Bucs(8), Giants(9) could all very well end up in a bidding war with each other on QB's, Obviously depends on a couple factors too, but then you have the Bengals at 11 and Redskins at 14, Broncos and Dolphins at 17 and 18. All of these teams could trade up ahead of the Jags to pick a QB, which I would certainly expect them to try and do that. If I'm the Bills, assuming Jonah Williams and DK Metcalf are off the board, I'm moving back. Same for the Jets. 

 

So if I'm the Jags? I spend the extra capital move up to #2 and get the QB. 

The other aspect that throws this all out of whack is having both Haskins and Herbert declare. Then it becomes a lot harder to try and justify trading up (again, assuming the QB needy teams all have the same, top 10 grade, on both QB's. )

[John232]

1 minute ago, JIllg said:

Or Clelin Farrell. I agree with you that I'd prefer Allen and Polite (for one, I see them beat tackles more often on tape), but Farrell has the sort of body and history that some teams may find more attractive.

Feels like Ferrell is unjustly dropping into the late first, early second range and he might be someone to ****** up in that range. Feels like Sweat, Polite, Allen, Burns and Winovich are pushing to be taken ahead of him now. 

[Forge]

1 minute ago, John232 said:

Well, it's only 5-6 if you don't think other teams are working on trading up too. This is where it sort of becomes prisoners dilemma-esque (or game theory??). The best possible route to ensuring you have your QB is trading up to #1 or #2 (assuming we end up at 2, Bosa goes #1), 

 

Jags(7), Bucs(8), Giants(9) could all very well end up in a bidding war with each other on QB's, Obviously depends on a couple factors too, but then you have the Bengals at 11 and Redskins at 14, Broncos and Dolphins at 17 and 18. All of these teams could trade up ahead of the Jags to pick a QB, which I would certainly expect them to try and do that. If I'm the Bills, assuming Jonah Williams and DK Metcalf are off the board, I'm moving back. Same for the Jets. 

 

So if I'm the Jags? I spend the extra capital move up to #2 and get the QB. 

The other aspect that throws this all out of whack is having both Haskins and Herbert declare. Then it becomes a lot harder to try and justify trading up (again, assuming the QB needy teams all have the same, top 10 grade, on both QB's. )

Yeah, there are so many moving parts that it's crazy. Worst case scenario is that we get #2 and can't move back lol. I have no idea how to approach that situation to be honest. BPAs are all going to be 3 and 5 techs, which we are stocked with. 

[Forge]

8 minutes ago, JIllg said:

Or Clelin Farrell. I agree with you that I'd prefer Allen and Polite (for one, I see them beat tackles more often on tape), but Farrell has the sort of body and history that some teams may find more attractive.

My problem with Farrell is that he seems more SDE than leo. That's a concern for me. Someone in the draft forum compared him to Chandler Jones I think, and if that's the case, obviously I won't care where he lines up LOL. That being said, as @John232, it seems like he's dropping. I think he's going to be a guy that some teams really like, and others don't like at all. I think some teams may hold the rest of that line against him for whatever reason (it is a stacked defensive front at Clemson). 

Part of my problem is that because the need for an edge rusher is so great, I'm really looking at these guys under a microscope and fixating on some very minor flaws. They all have things that worry me to a part. I just want the pick to be perfect LOL

[JIllg]

9 minutes ago, John232 said:

Feels like Ferrell is unjustly dropping into the late first, early second range and he might be someone to ****** up in that range. Feels like Sweat, Polite, Allen, Burns and Winovich are pushing to be taken ahead of him now. 

If Winovich is taken ahead of him, I'll eat my hat. Sweat, Allen, and Burns are all interesting cases, with Allen being the most polished and disruptive and Burns having the best physical profile, IMO. All are undersized for a 4-3 DE, but could be fine at LEO (or elephant, or whatever the hell) for all of the 4-3 under variants out there, even if they may prefer being SAMs that slide to LEO on passing downs. All are good players and would improve the team. Not sure that I'd risk missing Bosa, though.

[JIllg]

Just now, Forge said:

My problem with Farrell is that he seems more SDE than leo. That's a concern for me. Someone in the draft forum compared him to Chandler Jones I think, and if that's the case, obviously I won't care where he lines up LOL. That being said, as @John232, it seems like he's dropping. I think he's going to be a guy that some teams really like, and others don't like at all. I think some teams may hold the rest of that line against him for whatever reason (it is a stacked defensive front at Clemson). 

Part of my problem is that because the need for an edge rusher is so great, I'm really looking at these guys under a microscope and fixating on some very minor flaws. They all have things that worry me to a part. I just want the pick to be perfect LOL

I agree with you. I think he's more a SDE for us. I just don't see him beat tackles. He sets the edge well, beats TEs, FBs, and RBs when teams slide protections and overcommit to Clemson's other talented pass rushers, but I don't see him beat tackles often enough. Polite does. Allen does. 

[John232]

Just now, JIllg said:

If Winovich is taken ahead of him, I'll eat my hat. Sweat, Allen, and Burns are all interesting cases, with Allen being the most polished and disruptive and Burns haivng the best physical profile, IMO. All are undersized for a 4-3 DE, but could be fine at LEO (or elephant, or whatever the hell) for all of the 4-3 under variants out there, even if they may prefer being SAMs that slide to LEO on passing downs. All are good players and would improve the team. Not sure that I'd risk missing Bosa, though.

There's always some team willing to take a chance on a gritty, lunch pale kinda guy like Chase. Book it. 

 

I think @Forge hit on the biggest reason why he's dropping. He has the frame and athleticism of a pass-rushing monster, but plays like a strong side DE sometimes. I like him as a pass-rusher, from what I watched of all the edge prospects tape, Ferrell has the most developed game and repataoir, but he just does not have the burst and closing speed you see from the elite guys. I also think there's some familiarity fatigue with Ferrell, he's been so steady for so long that people just aren't intrigued by him anymore.

He's a very good prospect, who outside of biting on playfakes way too much, seems fundamentally very sound. He's good against the run, holds position extremely well and consistently generates pressure. He just doesn't have the big flash pass-rushes that you consistently see from the other dudes.  

[Forge]

5 minutes ago, John232 said:

There's always some team willing to take a chance on a gritty, lunch pale kinda guy like Chase. Book it. 

 

I think @Forge hit on the biggest reason why he's dropping. He has the frame and athleticism of a pass-rushing monster, but plays like a strong side DE sometimes. I like him as a pass-rusher, from what I watched of all the edge prospects tape, Ferrell has the most developed game and repataoir, but he just does not have the burst and closing speed you see from the elite guys. I also think there's some familiarity fatigue with Ferrell, he's been so steady for so long that people just aren't intrigued by him anymore.

He's a very good prospect, who outside of biting on playfakes way too much, seems fundamentally very sound. He's good against the run, holds position extremely well and consistently generates pressure. He just doesn't have the big flash pass-rushes that you consistently see from the other dudes.  

I think with Ferrell, fair or unfair, you're looking at potentially drafting a more refined pass rushing Thomas. There's nothing wrong with that of course, but for us, that could be a huge misstep. 

[Forge]

Just throwing it out there, but if I'm the 49ers, I Feel like I may press the Bengals hard about AJ Green this off season. He's a free agent after this season, and already 30 and coming off his injury, but I think I don't hate the idea of trying to parlay our second rounder into a deal for him. I think that would be a home run. We'd have to get him an extension, but I think I'm willing to take that chance all around. The Bengals can't seriously feel comfortable with where they are at as a team. Seems like they may be in line to do some major changes to the staff, possibly the roster. Maybe it's just better for them if they try and and acquire value back for him and do a silent re-tooling. 

[NcFinest9erFan]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

I wish we got to see every teams big board. I'm really curious whether or not the staff would have Polite or Josh Allen higher. 

Allen is listed at 265? is he a leo? was reading about him and someone mentioned another Hasson Riddick? 

[Forge]

Just now, NcFinest9erFan said:

Allen is listed at 265? is he a leo? was reading about him and someone mentioned another Hasson Riddick? 

I think he flips between SAM and LEO in our scheme. 260 - 265 seems to be what he's listed at, but he seems a bit lighter than that to me. I wouldn't be surprised if he's currently about 245 and comes into the combine around 255. Though honestly, it's really hard to gauge just based on eye sight. He may just carry 265 very well. 

Comparing him to Reddick doesn't make sense to me. Reddick was a a defensive lineman in college, converted to LB in the NFL. He had to completely overhaul his responsibilities and role. Not only that, but he was also fairly raw at DE, because prior to that he was a safety and running back throughout most of his high school days. I mean, they don't even physically profile comparably - Reddick was 6'1, 235. It was obvious he was going to have to shift to an off the ball role. Not the case with Allen who has a really good body length wise to play on the edge (should be 6'4 or 6'5).  The only thing with Allen that has really changed this year is his utilization - he's rushing the passer more than he did last year it seems like,  but he's still in the same role for the most part, which is also the same role that he would play in the NFL. He plays both sides. He's not super refined as a pass rusher yet (like I said, he's rushing the passer far more than he has in years past), but his improvement from last year to this year has been rather immense with regards to getting to the quarterback. 

[JIllg]

I'd really like to hear folk's opinions on this year's second-third round big cornerbacks. Amani Oruwariye v. Michael Jackson v. Trayvon Mullen (or choose your own horse to argue for)