Official Houston Rockets Thread: Phase 2 on hold

[Pastor Dillon]

Just two weeks(ish) out from training camp, and we have a battle going on for Roster spots, which i love. 

I would say the following are safe for sure:

CP3/Knight
Harden/Gordon/Green
Melo/Ennis
Tucker/Chriss
Capela/Hartenstine/Zhou

Thats 12, with Nene holding onto the 13th spot, but i am not 100% that we wont try to trade him or cut him. He is pretty well finished, and if Chriss shows he can play some center for us, which I think he will ultimately do, then I could see us looking for a team that we could send Nene and a 2nd rounder to. 

That leaves several guys on the bubble for those final 2 or 3 roster spots. A couple former 1st round picks

MCW, Bruno Caboclo, Vincent Edwards, Gary Clark and Rob Gray. 

There is also the option that we might resign Corey Brewer. 

I think between Edwards, Clark and Gray two of them will get a 2 way deal and not count against our 15. 

I am thinking Gary Clark is the odd man out with Edwards and Gray getting the 2 way deals...but Edwards might not be eligable for it. 

So i think it could very well come down to Nene, MCW, Bruno and maybe Corey Brewer for the final 2 roster spots. If Chriss is going to play Center, and not PF for us, then we really need another wing to play with Melo/Ennis/Tucker. The talk early in the off season was that we plan on running a lot of 3 guard line ups this coming year with Cp3/Harden/Gordon. 

i lean towards Caboclo being the guy that is cut, simply because MCW offers more as an end of the bench guy. If we are resting guys or have several injuries, MCW can guard 1-3 on D and he can play PG in a bad situation. I think his versatility will land him a roster spot for us. 

 

another thing of note: We are only 13.2 million over the tax line currently, depending on which roster spots we give to who. Its possible that we could revitalize the career of Knight enough to trade him or even Eric Gordon(not my choice) and get out of the tax all together. If Knight comes back and plays well, I could see a team taking him and our 1st round pick. Hes much more tradeable than Ryan Anderson was. Trade away Nene and Knight, and we could be under the tax enough to offer a free agent more than the minimum come buy out season....which we still have most of our MLE available to spend. 

Ultimately I suspect we just pay our 25 million tax bill and move on. We are a few years away from the repeater tax, but if we could get out of it this season, we might not have to deal with the repeater tax at all. There is also the option of trading Knight next year when his deal will be much more appealing and less costly to flip. 

Its gonna be a wild ride, but I think we are deeper than we were last year, even if we might take a step back on defense. 

[Pastor Dillon]

We announced our training camp Roster. It sits at 18. I think the roster is pretty well set at this point. Gary Clark is not making the team, he probably plays for the Vipers. Edwards and Gray will both have two way deals by the end of training camp. So all 15 of our other guys will probably make the Roster, giving us a depth chart looking like this:

PG: CP3 / Knight / MCW
SG: Harden / Gordon /
SF: Ennis / Green / Caboclo
PF: Tucker / Melo / Chriss
C: Capela / Nene / Hartenstein / Zhou

I think Chriss might end up playing the C position for us. 

From what I have read we plan to stagger Tucker and Melo at the 4, and not play the two of them together very often. We could play Tucker at the 3 if we find ourselves in a situation where we need his D and Melo is on fire or something and can't be brought out of the game. 

Also read that Knight will miss some time, but the plan this year appears to be to play CP3 around 30 minutes a game and give him b2b's off and try and keep him fresh. 

We are thin at SF with Ennis and Green, but we can also play MCW there in a pinch and reports are that we will be looking at more CP3/Harden/Gordon line ups this season. 

Nene will not be playing a whole lot for us. I suspect he's largely saved for banging with bigs in the playoffs for 12 minutes a game. Chriss and Hartenstein will battle for those 15-18 minutes behind Capela on a lot of nights. 

Zhou and Caboclo are both guys that i dont expect anything out of. Zhou doesnt have an NBA body, and I suspect hes on the roster to possibly use as a trade chip, since he has potential based on international play. Caboclo was 2 years away from being 2 year away, which would mean hes ready to be a rookie this season. I bet he plays a lot with our G-League team.

 

If I was going to bet on guys who will actually see real playing time this year, I would say the roster looks like this:

PG: CP3/Knight/MCW
SG: Harden/Gordon
SF: Ennis/Green
PF: Tucker/Melo
C: Capela/Nene/Chriss 

8 of the 12 guys can shoot the 3, and MCW is the only non big that cant shoot. He's basically just an emergency player when we are short from injury and two of Harden/CP3/KNight are not playing. 

[seminoles1]

I wish you guys had a better chance at Butler.  If you still had Melton then you would have had a shot IMO.

Gordon + Melton + 1st rounder

[Pastor Dillon]

On 9/24/2018 at 9:55 AM, seminoles1 said:

I wish you guys had a better chance at Butler.  If you still had Melton then you would have had a shot IMO.

Gordon + Melton + 1st rounder

Butler has hurt his trade value. I think he either stays with the Wolves and possibly gets moved at the deadline or they send him to Miami on Monday right before the season starts. 

[Texansfan713]

well opening week has gone good so far.  this morning clutch the bear rode in my car and i got a rockets decal and mini basketball.  

[Pastor Dillon]

I am interested in watching our 2nd unit play

CP3/Gordon/Green/Melo/Nene

thats a lot of offensive firepower. In fact, thats a playoff team in the east. We can even go MCW instead of Green if we need more defense. 

Or we can start Gordon and run a 2nd unit of CP3/Green/Ennis/Melo/Nene or Hartenstien 

when the playoffs start, we can even shorten the rotation and take Green out of it. CP3/Gordon/Ennis/Melo/Nene 

small ball line ups of CP3/Gordon/Harden/Ennis and Tucker or Melo at the 5. That sounds crazy to say, but Melo played well in limited minutes at the 5 against the pacers starters in the pre season. I think he can hold his own on D against a slower, less skilled big man. I wouldnt put him out there on Anthony Davis, but he could play the 5 against Pau Gasol or Marcin Gortat

We are much deeper than last year. MCW looked good in the pre season, and while hes never going to be a playoff rotation player, he is such an upgrade over what we were forced to play when CP3 or Harden missed a game last year. He is able to run the point in this system, he just cant shoot the 3, but he can drive and get out and run, and he is a very solid defender. 

MCW/Gordon/Green/Melo/Hartenstien as our 2nd unit would not be beaten too badly. I am not sure about the defense of playing Melo and Green together for long stretches, but the offense wouldnt fall apart. 

And none of this includes Branden Knight who could be another bench player for us if needed. I get why everyone hates KNight, but MDA always seems to get the best out of players, and we know at his best Knight was a solid 19/5 guy. 

 

As for Butler, I am not willing to give up Tucker and Gordon. Thats too much for one guy. Tucker is too important for our match up with the Warriors. Granted if Cousins is going to actually play starters minutes for them, losing Tucker would hurt less. Rumor has it that Butler is going to be playing for the wolves with the understanding that he will be traded before the deadline. This could really help us. Once Knight and Chriss are able to be traded, our options open up. Especially when Butler's value goes down because hes a free agent next year. Is anyone going to part with assets for 1/2 season of Butler that wouldnt part ways with them for a whole?

KNight, Gordon, Chriss and a 2019 1st for Butler and Dieng would be hard for the wolves to pass up at the deadline. Sure it doesnt give them relief next year, but they get out of Deing's contract for the year after that. Gordon can start and they get a 1st rounder. 

[Pastor Dillon]

We could possibly trade Knight and a 2019 1st to the Kings for Randolph. Waive him. Do not pick up the option for Chriss. we will enter the off season under the tax. Otherwise, we are going to be way over the tax. 

alternatively, we could try and convince the Kings to take Knight and a 1st for say Yogi, which saves us 11 million this season and according to spotrac, will get us out of the tax all together. Its worth a 1st round pick to not be in danger of the repeater tax for a while. 

 

[Pastor Dillon]

we need to do this butler trade. Even if it costs us Gordon. Green can provide shooting off the bench and Knight will be back at some point. 

[Pastor Dillon]

well we cant get any worse

so Heres to a back to back against the Nets and Bulls. If we cant pull these off, the season might just be lost. 

[Pastor Dillon]

Here is something that puzzles me more than anything. Just like last year, Eric Gordon has become an october starter 

here is a look at his numbers this october vs last october

2018: 14 points 1.5 assists 3.8 rebounds shooting 30/23/87

2017: 24.9 points 3.2 assists 2.3 rebounds shooting 40/30/84

 

Gordon is scoring 10.9 points less than last year, on worse shooting. We are also a -10.3 in point differential. 

Maybe hes just in a slump or maybe the trade rumors have gotten to him. Or maybe Starting next to James Harden is just astronomically better than starting next to CP3

[Texansfan713]

Bzdelik being back after Thanksgiving is going to be huge.  One reason our D hasn't been as good minus the fact Ariza and LUC left is that the new guys haven't been coached in the system taught by Bzdelik.  Glad he is back.

 

I still want to trade for Butler too.

[Pastor Dillon]

Ennis has been a huge difference maker. when he is on the court, the D is so much better. He's not an elite one on one defender, but his energy and effort make an impact. 

Also the early Melo signs are mixed. Hes had some good games and some bad games. one thing he adds to the team that we havent had is a post up threat. We arent going to post up often, but the post up play allows us to burn clock and take a possession off. Something that in the early 4th quarter can help. Melo is shooting 14 of 18 on post ups this season. That comes out to about 2 attempts per game, which is not a lot, but it gets us some points with that second unit. 

Defense is kinda strange. during out 1-5 start we were absolute trash on D with him on the court and we were elite with him off the court. during the 3 game road trip, weve actually been better with him on the court than off the court. Competition has a lot to do with it, but I was encouraged by our D against the Pacers who are a legit playoff team

Looking forward to tonight's game. Its always fun to play the Thunder on National TV. We should be the favorites without Westbrook playing, but it all depends on which Rockets team shows up.Our team has been shooting so poorly, that if we are going to revert to the average, it means we are going to get on a hot streak and might win 10 straight games. 

The good news is that Harden is back. He looked a little sluggish in his first two games back but i expect a fired up Harden to come out tonight. Harden has been a beast this year, despite the troubles around him. He averaging 28/8/5/2.5 and he is shooting 43% from 3 this season. There has been a concentrated effort by NBA officials to not send him to the line, and so he is shooting nearly 2 fewer free throws a game and is making a career worst 78%. Combine these two things and you get the reason hes not at 30 points per game. That will change, hes probably not going to shoot 43% from 3 and 78% from the free throw line this season. 

Harden has a good chance to keep the scoring title. He only trails Curry and Walker in points per game, and I dont see either of them keeping up the pace they are at. Walker has a better chance than curry, but i dont see curry averaging 32 a game this season. Not because Curry cant do it, but the warriors have had some slumping shooting and I think they revert back as well. Nor do i expect to see curry hit over 50% from 3 on 11 attempts for the entire season. 

 

[Pastor Dillon]

weve been a dumpster fire the last three games. 2 minute report confirms we should have beaten Detriot, or at least should have been up 5 instead of 2 in the final minute. 

Wizards game was the craziest thing I have ever seen. The refs completely took over that game calling 60 fouls. I wont say that it was lopsided, because it wasnt. It was evenly bad. The wizards had way more depth than we did though. So the foul trouble effected us worse. Capela had 3 quick fouls and rim protection became non existent. Same with Harden. Our guys knew we didnt have a chance if they went to the bench, and so they basically just quit playing D after the 27-10 start. Even still, Eric Gordon's final shot was clearly a foul, right across the arm before wall blocked the shot, but you arent getting that call. Then we went ice cold. 

now here we sit in 13th place in the west. I still expect us to claw our way back into this thing. we are only .5 out of the 8th seed and 4.5 out of first, with a lot of basketball left. with CP3 we are 9-5, without him we are 0-4. With Harden and CP3 together we are 8-4. So the team still works at a high level. we just need some things to break our way health wise. The 7 games where either Harden or CP3 has missed, we are 1-6. and if you want to dig even deeper, Eric Gordon has missed 3 of our 19 games. That means that 10 of our 19 games, one of Gordon, CP3 and Harden have missed and we are 3-7 in those games. 6-3 in the rest. 

Tonight we get the Mavs who like normal are overachieving. They shouldnt be a playoff team, but Jordan is owning the paint, Luka is ROY and if they could convince Matthews he isnt Kobe, the guys around them would be playing really well. They should have Smith back tonight, though Luka missed practice yesterday with an illness. They shoot the 3 really well, and we like to let teams shoot the 3 really well. The good news for us is that they are not a great offensive rebounding team. That is the single biggest area of weakness for us right now. We give up way too many 2nd chance points when we get a stop the first time. 

I dont know if CP3 will play or not, but if he can go, I am starting CP3/Harden/Gordon/Tucker/Capela. We can bring in Ennis for Gordon 4 minutes into the game, so that Gordon can still play with the 2nd unit, but hes been red hot starting the last 2 games and we need to keep him going. Gordon is the reason I would have preferred to go after PG that off season instead of CP3. I think Gordon can be a 20+ point scorer in the right role, because that is what he has been for us when he has started. 

[Pastor Dillon]

Normally the rockets dont get cold until the 2nd half, but according to twitter they have been cold since they landed in Utah. 

[Pastor Dillon]

Sources are saying we are going to use a 10 day contract on a wing. James Nunnally has been tossed around. why wouldnt we just bring Vincent Edwards up from the g-league if we are going to do that?