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JaguarCrazy2832

Why did these guys fall?

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Posted (edited)

So this is the 1st year in a about a decade where i hardly did any scouting. Definitely helped that we didnt pick in the Top-5 but there were several guys that fell and I'm not sure why. A few even went to my Jaguars which has me even more curious. Feel free to add to my list:

S Derwin James(17)- Chargers(League seems to be undervaluing the position all together?)

RB Derrius Guice(59)-Redskins(Was it a character thing?)

CB Carlton Davis(63)- Buccaneers(I'm biased?)

QB Mason Rudolph(76)- Steelers(Was mocked as a late 1st/early 2nd)

OT Orlando Brown(83)-Ravens(Out of shape?)

TE Mark Andrews(86)-Ravens(1 dimensional but its a good dimension)

S Ronnie Harrison(93)-Jaguars(1 dimensional, in the box safety?)

TE Ian Thomas(101)- Panthers

OT Tyrell Crosby(153)-Lions

K Daniel Carlson(167)- Vikings(I'm biased)

CB Quenton Meeks(UDFA)-Jaguars

WR Allen Lazard(UDFA)-Jaguars

DE/LB Jeff Holland(UDFA)-Broncos

CB Holton Hill(UDFA)-Vikings

 

 

 

Edited by JaguarCrazy2832

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11 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

So this is the 1st year in a about a decade where i hardly did any scouting. Definitely helped that we didnt pick in the Top-5 but there were several guys that fell and I'm not sure why. A few even went to my Jaguars which has me even more curious. Feel free to add to my list:

S Derwin James(17)- Chargers(League seems to be undervaluing the position all together?)

RB Derrius Guice(59)-Redskins(Was it a character thing?)

CB Carlton Davis(63)- Buccaneers(I'm biased?)

QB Mason Rudolph(76)- Steelers(Was mocked as a late 1st/early 2nd)

OT Orlando Brown(83)-Ravens(Out of shape?)

TE Mark Andrews(86)-Ravens(1 dimensional but its a good dimension)

S Ronnie Harrison(93)-Jaguars(1 dimensional, in the box safety?)

TE Ian Thomas(101)- Panthers

OT Tyrell Crosby(153)-Lions

K Daniel Carlson(167)- Vikings(I'm biased)

 

 

Hard to say why they dropped...

 

Derwin James - I think it is because he is not quite the same prospect he was as a freshman, not quite the same off of injury and did not progress to be as great as some thought.  Kid was arguably the #1 pick overall if not #2 coming into the season.  Yes position does not help either, but could do just fine on the Chargers, very glad Green Bay did not select him.

Derrius Guice - Yeah I think it was a character thing, because on the field he is tough and runs the football hard, very productive with good quick feet.  Not sure the character thing is legit but some thought so, and like many said similar to Dalvin Cook last season even though Cook is a better prospect and talent I feel.  

Carlton Davis - I do not know why, kid is a stud tackler and very aggressive in coverage.  Did not run great so that probably did not help at all having that elite 40 time.

Mason Rudolph - Only certain teams needed QBs and once they got a QB, and the Patriots did not want one that is why he feel.  Still a fine player and could easily be just as good as some of the other QBs drafted ahead of him.  Really in a great situation but does show Dobbs is not a very good QB potentially than fact the Steelers did take Rudolph.  

Orlando Brown - Yes the combine workout hurt him a ton, but so what is in a great situation to a solid organization and gets to play where his dad played, ideal situation and could do awesome there.

Mark Andrews - Is odd he feel this far, since when was blocking that big of a deal when a player is an elite pass catcher at TE.  But with him and Gesicki falling I guess it is to some, again great situation and he could do some great things.  They got a blocker at TE with Hurst though who can still do some damage in the passing game and either a big body slot WR or stretch pass catching TE in Andrews, win win.

Ronnie Harrison - Kid was a good player for sure, not the best in coverage but not awful, they got a potential steal there and in defense could do some damage.

Ian Thomas - He only had one year really of production, if he was more consistent over a long period of time he could have went higher.  

Tyrell Crosby - Very odd he fell that far, really strong tackle and could be a beast guard but I guess some might not have liked him in pass protection.

Daniel Carlson - Not sure he fell, he is a kicker and is no where near the best college kicker I have ever seen.  Best in this draft yes but not this all time great kicker by any means.  Hopefully he does well but will see.  Did not have a great year this past season compared to his JR year, but has never missed a so great considering what the Vikings kickers did these past two seasons.  

 

 

 

A few other players I thought where drafted lower than they should have been.  

Dallas Goedert

Connor Williams

Justin Reid

Sam Hubbard

Malik Jefferson

Harrison Phillips

Dorian O'Daniel

Josh Sweat

Maurice Hurts

Shaquem Griffin

Marcus Allen

Equanimeous St. Brown

Ade Aruna

Marcell Ateman

Bo Scarbrough

Ryan Izzo

Justin Jackson

Auden Tate

Trey Quinn

 

 

 

A few players I thought were drafted higher than they should have been.   

Billy Price

Terrell Edmunds

Taven Bryan

Ronald Jones

MJ Stewart

PJ Hall

Tyquan Lewis

BJ Hill

Jordan Akins

Troy Apke

Nick Nelson

Rick Leonard

Russell Gage

Tanner Lee

Danny Etling

David Williams

 

 

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1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

S Derwin James(17)- Chargers

I have no idea. He’s a steal at this spot and will be better than most of the defenders picked before him IMO.

1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

RB Derrius Guice(59)-Redskins

Definitely seems like teams were rubbed the wrong way about him lying.

1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

CB Carlton Davis(63)- Buccaneers

Not really a fall IMO.

1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

QB Mason Rudolph(76)- Steelers

Teams knew how bad the QB class was after the top 5. That’s why they all went low.

1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

OT Orlando Brown(83)-Ravens

Definitely his combine/measurables. Steal.

1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

TE Mark Andrews(86)-Ravens

Probably about where he should’ve been drafted, IYAM.

1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

S Ronnie Harrison(93)-Jaguars

Him and Reid, I don’t know why or how they fell this far. Safeties devalued, I guess. 

1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

TE Ian Thomas(101)- Panthers

Again, about on point - maybe a little lower than expected.

1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

OT Tyrell Crosby(153)-Lions

*Shrug*

He has flaws, but I don’t know why he lasted all that long.

1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

CB Holton Hill(UDFA)-Vikings

Definitely character concerns. 

38 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Dallas Goedert

Not a big fall, he still went R2. You don’t see many tight ends go R1.

38 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Connor Williams

Made sense after his testing, he went high 2nd.

38 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Justin Reid

Baffling.

38 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Sam Hubbard

Guess teams weren’t impressed with his athleticism? Edge rushers seemed to be not-as-coveted as projected after Davenport.

38 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Malik Jefferson

Developmental LB IMO. Dropped a tad because of it.

38 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Harrison Phillips

Strong defensive tackle class IMO. He was a victim of it.

38 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Josh Sweat

Bone on bone.

38 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Maurice Hurts

Heart condition.

38 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Shaquem Griffin

Has to be the hand, right? He was a steal IYAM.

38 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Marcus Allen

Safeties got devalued in this class.

38 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Bo Scarbrough

Went as projected, for me.

 

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59 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

I'm shocked Denver got Josey Jewell I thought round,3 was a pipe dream

He could do extremely well on Denver in that 3/4 as a ILB, tackling machine and his lack of open field athletic ability will not matter as much.  Also should have time to grow as a prospect and will not be expected to be this great player right away.  

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Quote

S Derwin James(17)- Chargers(League seems to be undervaluing the position all together?)

I think that's most of it.  Just, how much value is there in a SS these days, even if he is more versatile and rangy than most?  Especially when he's not flawless with his angles and tackling.  Didn't really "fall" as much as the media made it sound on draft day imo.

Quote

RB Derrius Guice(59)-Redskins(Was it a character thing?)

Seems to really bother NFL personnel people that he'd rather spend his free time videogaming than out getting in trouble.  Probably back to the Mike Williams Dog vs Cat thing (hint: you're never supposed to pick Cat for some reason).  Although apparently was late for some meetings/appointments as well.  Immaturity maybe.  Combined with the RB position being kind of hit or miss on value too.

Quote

CB Carlton Davis(63)- Buccaneers(I'm biased?)

He's got most of what you want in a big corner, but he doesn't take the ball away, which is important to a lot of teams.  Not like he "fell" that far though.

Quote

QB Mason Rudolph(76)- Steelers(Was mocked as a late 1st/early 2nd)

He's a weak-armed system QB.  It's a stupid insane QB-needy league, so you really never know how far a guy will get pushed up someone's board at the position...but he went pretty much exactly where a project backup with marginal low-end game managing stopgap starter potential ought to go.

Quote

OT Orlando Brown(83)-Ravens(Out of shape?)

A historically poor combine will do that to a guy.

Quote

TE Mark Andrews(86)-Ravens(1 dimensional but its a good dimension)

Apparently he's got the diabeetus.  In addition to be a bit of a 1-dimensional receiving TE without the most elite athletic testing numbers, with very little of any next level blocking ability on tape.

Quote

S Ronnie Harrison(93)-Jaguars(1 dimensional, in the box safety?)

I don't think he's really a 1-dimensional box safety only...but he has absolutely nothing remarkable that stands out about him.  He's just...fine.  At a position that, as with Derwin, isn't exactly the most premium spot.

Quote

TE Ian Thomas(101)- Panthers

I love the guy's upside...but there's extremely little experience there, and so little tape to go on.  He could easily be the best TE out of this draft in a few years...but there's so much projection involved, it's riskier.

Quote

OT Tyrell Crosby(153)-Lions

This one stumps me a bit.  Must be something...but even if he's not gonna be an OT at the next level, he's surely got some pretty solid G potential?  I heard lower body build concerns being thrown around, but that seems weird to me if it's the only real concern.

Quote

K Daniel Carlson(167)- Vikings(I'm biased)

I mean...it's a kicker.  How high do you even take a kicker?  That's probably overdrafting if anything.

Quote

CB Quenton Meeks(UDFA)-Jaguars

Not really sure why he fell out of the draft altogether, but there isn't usually big demand for slow/plodding CBs.

Quote

WR Allen Lazard(UDFA)-Jaguars

He's a "tweener".  Excruciatingly slow for a WR, but probably can't bulk up any more to be a legit TE.  So you've got a slow redzone jump ball specialist WR.  Not the most coveted type of piece if he can't contribute to much of anything else.

Quote

DE/LB Jeff Holland(UDFA)-Broncos

Also a tweener.  Doesn't have the size/length/athleticism to be a good bet as a DE.  Hasn't shown any real evidence of ability to drop in coverage and play LBer.  Kind of surprising one of the many hybrid front teams popping up all over the league didn't take a flyer on him as a late round developmental pass rush specialist...but even in that role, he's more motor than gifted, as teams tend to prefer as projects.

Quote

CB Holton Hill(UDFA)-Vikings

Was he even supposed to get drafted?  He's a suspension/character red flag guy who goofed up again.

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Quote

Dallas Goedert

He looks the part, but you're talking about an "athletic mismatch receiving TE"...with all his tape vs the inferior athletes of FCS football.  It's a riskier projection than if he'd been looking like the same sort of mismatch nightmare vs a ton of NFL-bound SEC talent or something.

Quote

Connor Williams

Big overreaction about T-Rex arms and/or most teams probably projecting him as a G rather than a T.  In which case, he sorta went reasonably within range of where one might expect for a quality G prospect coming off an injury and with some inconsistency.

Quote

Justin Reid

Probably related to why his brother is having an unusually difficult time finding NFL work.

Quote

Sam Hubbard

Doesn't really scream "athletic specimen", which teams tend to look for at the position.  Should be great value as a result though.

Quote

Malik Jefferson

Basically the opposite of Hubbard.  Has all the athletic traits, but i think was a victim of some instability in the program and his role there.  Raised some questions about his instincts/football IQ and whether he's just more of an athlete.  As long as he lands somewhere that can set him up to just play what's in front of him, he could be a huge steal.

Quote

Harrison Phillips

I think there's a bit of positional ambiguity there, as to exactly what sort of alignment and role he's going to play at the next level.  He can play though, and i'd be surprised if he doesn't find a fit somewhere.  Just doesn't really fit the profile of exactly what teams look for in any specific type of DLineman.

Quote

Dorian O'Daniel

He flashed a ton in college, but i think he's a super specific niche fit player.  He's a Nickel-SAM LBer, aka "moneybacker" or whatever.  Which is sort of the new fad, but not every team is looking to build that into their scheme.  He's not really cut out to be a traditional SS or a classic WLB.

Quote

Josh Sweat

Injury stuff, along with some really underwhelming tape that doesn't live up to his athletic testing hype at all.

Quote

Maurice Hurts

He's got a janky heart apparently.  Idk what exactly, but obviously enough to scare a lot of teams off.  

Quote

Shaquem Griffin

He's only got one hand.  Which, he played through and made a big impact in college.  But he's sort of an ambiguous position fit at the next level, along with the reality that he's not going to be as adept at generating INTs as a comparable two-handed player.  The guy wasn't even originally invited to the combine though...how high were people expecting him to go?

Quote

Marcus Allen

I think falls victim to "just a guy" syndrome.  A bit like Ronnie Harrison in that he's a solid player...but with pretty much nothing that stands out, at a position that isn't in vogue as a high-end value these days.  Decent safeties are relatively easy to find...it's the gamechanging impact safeties that teams covet.

Quote

Equanimeous St. Brown

He's a HWS guy and not much else.  I'd say he went about as expected?

Quote

Marcell Ateman

I think there are some legit concerns about how he'll generate any separation at the next level.  He's a productive possession target in that gimmicky college offense vs scrubby defenses not built to counter his skillset...but that'll be so much more difficult in the NFL and he doesn't run well or have any sort of sophisticated route savvy.

Quote

Bo Scarbrough

He's a big plodding back with the advantage of running behind a perennially solid 'Bama OLine.  These guys go undrafted all the time.

Quote

Ryan Izzo

Like Scarbrough, it's just not a type of player that gets draft highly, or at all usually.  Blocking TEs are just...not a valued commodity.  You can find them all over the place.

Quote

Trey Quinn

Unless you're the Patriots...the "small white guy slot receiver" profile isn't usually a premium one.  The guy can absolutely play, and will probably well outperform his draft slot.  But teams aren't usually clambering to corner the market on that niche role.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Ozzy said:

He could do extremely well on Denver in that 3/4 as a ILB, tackling machine and his lack of open field athletic ability will not matter as much.  Also should have time to grow as a prospect and will not be expected to be this great player right away.  

Plus his 3 cone time was great that is a better guage of coverage ability than 40 time. I'm not trying to be a homer but they got a 2nd or first round prospect in the 4th.

Griffin or Jowell were on my wish,list.

This is the best broncos draft,class I can remember.  I just,hope the head coach shows up .

Edited by thebestever6

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6 hours ago, Tugboat said:

 

Maurice - Hurst

He's got a janky heart apparently.  Idk what exactly, but obviously enough to scare a lot of teams off.  

Based on the fact that nobody picked the kid in the first 2 rounds it's clear that it scared not a lot of teams, but all teams off. 

The thing that surprises me is that his issue is not new but was known iirc since his freshman year. Surprising to see him get cleared by Michigan and all nfl teams running away.

 

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

OT Tyrell Crosby(153)-Lions

Have read that there were (are) lingering concerns about concussions with this guy from NFL teams, when he had been something of a media darling and fan favorite as a second-round pick in a down year for OT's:

"On the NFL Network broadcast, analyst Mike Mayock suggested Crosby might have dropped in the draft because of potential concussion concerns. When asked about the comment, Crosby declined to say how many concussions he’s suffered, but is confident it’s not an issue."

Then this, from Walter Football (that paragon of truthful reporting, insider knowledge, and high-colored opinions):

"Crosby definitely has some limitations with length and height that concern NFL evaluators. Sources mentioned the lack of height and length as problems at the Senior Bowl, but they felt that Crosby's feet save him, and he helped himself with his showing in Mobile. One issue for Crosby is a bad body. He needs to get stronger and improve his conditioning for the NFL. Crosby is more of a finesse blocker, as are 95 percent of current prospects, because college football has gone away from power offenses to the uptempo spread attacks. As a pro, Crosby could stand to get nastier and block through the whistle while getting more violent with defenders."

Read more: http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2018tcrosby.php#ixzz5ELm4QxFc
Read more at http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2018tcrosby.php#HBCHBEef3dlWHw1z.99

Edited by bzane

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11 hours ago, Tugboat said:
Quote

Justin Reid

Probably related to why his brother is having an unusually difficult time finding NFL work

I would agree with this - but look at WHO drafted him. Houston? Bob McNair?

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Don't know, happens in every draft. Be interesting to see if the guys who fell end up living to where they were picked or where they were projected to have been picked. 

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5 hours ago, Roninho said:

Based on the fact that nobody picked the kid in the first 2 rounds it's clear that it scared not a lot of teams, but all teams off. 

The thing that surprises me is that his issue is not new but was known iirc since his freshman year. Surprising to see him get cleared by Michigan and all nfl teams running away.

I figure there is also the factor of how Geno Atkins, Mike Daniels, Grady Jarett etc. were all day 3 picks too.  NFL gets weird about "undersized" defensive tackles sometimes.

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

So this is the 1st year in a about a decade where i hardly did any scouting. Definitely helped that we didnt pick in the Top-5 but there were several guys that fell and I'm not sure why. A few even went to my Jaguars which has me even more curious. Feel free to add to my list:

S Derwin James(17)- Chargers(League seems to be undervaluing the position all together?)

Quote

Safety is not an undervalued position, that changed when the league became a pass dominate one. He could have fallen for character issues or medical issues, 2 things we are never completely privy to and I suspect, it was one of these 2 areas that caused his slip.

RB Derrius Guice(59)-Redskins(Was it a character thing?)

Quote

Guice began falling weeks before the draft, more and more, you found him in round 2 and I think GM's simply were not seeing a top talent in him after the Combine and it may well have been a character issue!!!

CB Carlton Davis(63)- Buccaneers(I'm biased?)

Quote

He simply did not have a great Combine!

QB Mason Rudolph(76)- Steelers(Was mocked as a late 1st/early 2nd)

Quote

He was always a prospect who never threatened the top 5 guys, he was always that 6th guy who nobody knew exactly where he would end up. Just nothing really special about his talent!

OT Orlando Brown(83)-Ravens(Out of shape?)

Quote

I am actually surprised he went as high as he did, prospects who show up for a job interview, which is what the Combine really is, cannot expect to go earlier than round 3, esp[ecially given the failure rate for this type of weakness.

TE Mark Andrews(86)-Ravens(1 dimensional but its a good dimension)

Quote

I watched him against Georgia and he looked lost in that game especially in the second half and I think it really affected his draft stock!

S Ronnie Harrison(93)-Jaguars(1 dimensional, in the box safety?)

Quote

Certainly, an in the box SAfety are not as desired as in the past and Alabama has had a few problems producing very successful Safeties and he might have paid the price!

TE Ian Thomas(101)- Panthers

OT Tyrell Crosby(153)-Lions

Quote

I believe this was likely a medical issue!

K Daniel Carlson(167)- Vikings(I'm biased)

CB Quenton Meeks(UDFA)-Jaguars

WR Allen Lazard(UDFA)-Jaguars

DE/LB Jeff Holland(UDFA)-Broncos

CB Holton Hill(UDFA)-Vikings

 

 

 

 

Edited by Iamcanadian

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8 hours ago, Roninho said:

Based on the fact that nobody picked the kid in the first 2 rounds it's clear that it scared not a lot of teams, but all teams off. 

The thing that surprises me is that his issue is not new but was known iirc since his freshman year. Surprising to see him get cleared by Michigan and all nfl teams running away.

 

Where injuries are concerned, it is always team doctors that call the shots and based on where he went, I will assume, team doctors did not give him a thumbs up!

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