Broncos decline Shane Ray's 5th year option

[BullsandBroncos]

 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

So far Ray seems to have an interesting career path. He got better each of his first two seasons, and then injuries kind of derailed last year and now they're not picking up his option because Chubb is here.

I think he'll be a solid FA acquisition for a team.

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, Darth Pees said:

So far Ray seems to have an interesting career path. He got better each of his first two seasons, and then injuries kind of derailed last year and now they're not picking up his option because Chubb is here.

I think he'll be a solid FA acquisition for a team.

Yeah, while Elway is usually a master of FA and contract decisions, this is a weird one, given the 5th year option is ONLY guaranteed for injury. 9M for an EDGE that plays well and who's young is a big bargain.   Yes, we have Chubb and Von.   Yes, we have a promising cheap UDFA in Jeff Holland we picked up.    And yes, our cap situation for 2019 sucks hard (29th out of 32 teams right now, as of last count, and only 13M in rollover even if we stood pat).

From my Bronco Forum post on this on Monday when this possibility was rumored:

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Yeah, that's my argument for Ray.   If the money was guaranteed, no way we do it.  There's still risk if he can't pass a March 2019 physical, but IMO it's worth it.

The only bad outcome is he sucks, and he can't pass that March 2019 physical.

The no-harm, no-foul outcome is he isn't worth 9M, and we cut him.  Nothing gained, but nothing lost in our case.

The 2 best-cases are that he breaks out, and then he's totally worth the 9M to keep.   Or that he breaks out, and suddenly at 9M, he's actually cheap for a difference-making EDGE (they are are 12M+ easy, if not more, esp if you are young).   That means we get a decent trade value - maybe a Day 2 pick.   Which would be amazing...now that Elway & Kubiak seem to actually be able to evaluate Day 2 talent competently.

The risk-reward analysis says it's a smart idea to renew the 5th year option, unless there's a lingering injury concern.   Remember that Ray's injury, while it allowed him to return after PUP, was going to sap his strength for 6+ months before restoring its full power.  It should be back now.   It explains why he sucked so hard in 2017, as soon as that injury happened and was confirmed I feared it was a lost season.  But it also gives hope he can rebound in a big way.   If he does, we will absolutely kick ourselves for not taking the 5th year option.  And I'm saying that knowing how bad our cap situation is.   I'll regret it if he gets hurt and can't pass that March 2019 physical for sure.  But I'll regret him breaking out and us letting him walk (we won't be able to retain him in FA, that's a lock), and getting only a comp pick back, when the return would be likely far, far greater.

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And then, the post yesterday when it looked more like a real story:

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The only way you can justify this decision is if:

1.  You (generic you) don't see any way Ray could be worth 9M as an EDGE.   A guy like Cameron Erving fits here as a 2019 5th year option guy to decline purely based on skill - there's such a low chance to be worth that $, you don't add any risk by taking the option, because then there's only risk he will get hurt, there's no upside there.    But we know  Ray's had a 10-sack season in 2016.   If we knew he would do that, we'd renew the option in a heartbeat.  So it's not like we don't think there's any hope.  He's actually performed at a level where the option would be a no-brainer to exercise.  If it was a top 10 pick, then the option $ is way higher.  But 9M is an absolute bargain if you get a 10+ sack guy who's young, and could still improve (or keep playing at his peak).  

2.   The risk of failing a March 2019 physical is far greater than we know publicly.   The wrist injury is not a type that's a risk to re-occur (do it again, or complications from surgery, totally different story).   So right now, there's nothing there that says this is an additional risk.    Yes, it just happened to Watson, but ironically, Watson was a very clear injury risk even in OAK (why I'm surprised Elway agreed to put in year 2...price of a bad T market I suppose, oh well).

3.   He's got some other risk (maybe we'll hear there's a 4-game PED/weed suspension that's under appeal).

From everything we know, none of those concerns applies.   So yeah, I'm NOT a fan if this decision by Elway.    Frankly, Elway would be best served to at least kick the tires on trading Ray before Friday to a team that would consider renewing the 5th year option.    I've said all along that Shaq Barrett is the guy to trade, because he's done and not getting re-signed after 2018 - but if we don't renew the 5th year option with Ray, that statement applies to Ray as well now.   And unlike Barrett, there's a small but very clear potential added traded value if we do it before May 3 - because a team that trades for him would likely want to renew the 2019 option, given it's not guaranteed except for injury.

The ironic part is that usually this time of year, we're lauding Elway for his business decisions, contracts, etc. - and wringing our hands about his draft.  The one year where he kills the draft (and Kubiak, and likely help from adding analytics too, but whatever he's doing, keep doing or do more lol), we get this really weird decision.   Maybe we'll hear more that supports #1 or #2 or #3 later.

[Shanedorf]

I can see the value from a player/production POV.... but from a roster-building POV maybe it looks a little different

If you have Von and Chubb starting, how do you justify paying $9 million to OLB 3 ?

From a positional spending view, Denver is already top 3 at LB in 2018 and are still top 12 in 2019 with limited cap space- without extending Ray

https://overthecap.com/positional-spending

OTC wrote this item below on Shane Ray and Barrett after round 1 was over

https://overthecap.com/contracts-question-2018-nfl-drafts-1st-round

"John Elway was noncommittal before the draft on picking up Ray’s fifth year option. It was good that he was, as one can never be for sure who will fall in one’s lap in the draft. That was the case with the Broncos, who had Bradley Chubb rated as their highest defensive player but had zero mock drafts in which they thought he would be available to him. With Ray’s 5th year option likely coming in at around $10.6 million, and the Broncos having the fifth least 2019 cap space at the moment, it may now be more likely than not that Denver will not pick up Ray’s option. "

[DingoLadd]

This is the biggest mistake Denver has made since they hired Elway - Shane Ray's agent probably. 

[TheKillerNacho]

Why would they not?

[Broncofan]

7 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

I can see the value from a player/production POV.... but from a roster-building POV maybe it looks a little different

If you have Von and Chubb starting, how do you justify paying $9 million to OLB 3 ?

From a positional spending view, Denver is already top 3 at LB in 2018 and are still top 12 in 2019 with limited cap space- without extending Ray

https://overthecap.com/positional-spending

OTC wrote this item below on Shane Ray and Barrett after round 1 was over

https://overthecap.com/contracts-question-2018-nfl-drafts-1st-round

"John Elway was noncommittal before the draft on picking up Ray’s fifth year option. It was good that he was, as one can never be for sure who will fall in one’s lap in the draft. That was the case with the Broncos, who had Bradley Chubb rated as their highest defensive player but had zero mock drafts in which they thought he would be available to him. With Ray’s 5th year option likely coming in at around $10.6 million, and the Broncos having the fifth least 2019 cap space at the moment, it may now be more likely than not that Denver will not pick up Ray’s option. "

The key though isn't that we'd spend 9M on Shane Ray - we'd have the option to spend 9M on Shane Ray, and trade him to someone who values him as a top or 2nd EDGE on their team.    By declining the option, with our cap situation, we're letting him walk, and getting at best a 2020 end-of-3rd comp pick - and that's if he balls out after signing a big $ contract.    Anything less, and our comp pick goes down. And given we have to wait a year, it's more like an end-of-4th 2019 pick in terms of potential value we're surrendering.   All because we don't want the option of possibly committing later on, not committing now.

Remember, the 9M isn't guaranteed except for injury.  So it's ONLY a commitment to have that option only.  If it was guaranteed, it's a total no-brainer to decline.  But it's not guaranteed unless Ray can't pass a mid-March 2019 physical.  That's a HUGE difference.   Elway's basically closing the door on potential return in value.   We all agree we'd probably not keep Ray at 9M - but if he gets 10+ sacks like he did in 2016, the likelihood we could do better than a 2019 4th round pick at that salary, I'd peg at 100 percent.  If he's not good, as long as he's not hurt enough to not pass a March 2019 physical, he's cut with 0 dead money.  There's nothing lost in either scenario, only gain (the only losing scenario is being unable to pass a 2019 March physical, like Bortles & JAX - but again, here we have no injury history that presents long-term risk).    That's why it's a bad call IMO.

[Shanedorf]

6 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

  Elway's basically closing the door on potential return in value.     That's why it's a bad call IMO.

Got it, Thanks for the illumination

[Broncofan]

22 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Got it, Thanks for the illumination

No problem, all good.   Just so I give a fully nuanced answer that doesn't paint Elway only in a "WTF is he thinking" light - Elway may be gunshy on this kind of decision because we just got burned with a 5.5M cap hit with Menelik Watson - his 2019 salary was guaranteed only for injury too.  But he couldn't pass a March 2019 physical, so boom, we're stuck with that dead money.   This has obviously hurt us in a huge way cap-wise.    Obviously, we don't want to relive that to a 10.6M hit with Ray, even if it's unlikely to happen (thx for the correct $ from OTC, 9M was using old 5th year option $ figures).  Elway may not want to risk that, even if it's incredibly unlikely.

The problem with that thinking is it's entirely recency bias (when you use your last experience to drive decision-making).   It ignores the fact that Ray's risk is nowhere near Watson's risk of failing a future-year physical.  Watson's injury risk was sky high even when he signed, that's why he was cheap (little did we know his past injuries also robbed him of the ability to...actually play well even when healthy).  Ray had an awful wrist injury, that while he came back from after PUP, normally robs players of peak strength for another 6 months after returning.  So it explains why, even on his return from PUP, Ray just flat out sucked in 2017, when he was actually very decent in 2016 (and only in 2nd year).  

Anyways, it's a moot point.   But at the same time, if Elway is moving on, then he's honestly best served to at least kick the tires and see if a team is interested in renewing the 2019 5th year option - and trade Ray to that team before the May 3 deadline (tomorrow).  If it's a 2019 4th round pick or higher (or make it conditional 4th/5th), then it's equivalent to best-case comp pick return in 2020.

 

[BaldyBronco]

31 minutes ago, DingoLadd said:

This is the biggest mistake Denver has made since they hired Elway - Shane Ray's agent probably. 

Wait. What?

[Woz]

I agree with @Broncofan in that Denver should have activated his option and then tried to trade him (or if they were REALLY gunshy, they would have traded him yesterday or today and let some other team make the call whether to activate the option).

An interesting question: if the Broncos were to trade him today (or tomorrow at the latest), could his new team turn around and then activate the option, or is it now permanently declined?

[BaldyBronco]

10 minutes ago, Woz said:

I agree with @Broncofan in that Denver should have activated his option and then tried to trade him (or if they were REALLY gunshy, they would have traded him yesterday or today and let some other team make the call whether to activate the option).

An interesting question: if the Broncos were to trade him today (or tomorrow at the latest), could his new team turn around and then activate the option, or is it now permanently declined?

He would renegotiate on being traded.  No one will want to, since he is a big risk.  That said.  If he has a big year, kid will get paid.  His challenge is he is gonna get lost on the depth chart as our pass rushers are DEEP.

[Shanedorf]

There's a fair chance that the Broncos shopped Ray during all of the draft discussions - getting a feel for his worth around the league

[DingoLadd]

29 minutes ago, BaldyBronco said:

Wait. What?

it's a joke, kind of curious why Denver declined his option (I get not wanting to be on the hook given their poor cap situation but still) and I'd bet Ray and his agent aren't happy about it. 

[BaldyBronco]

1 minute ago, DingoLadd said:

it's a joke, kind of curious why Denver declined his option (I get not wanting to be on the hook given their poor cap situation but still) and I'd bet Ray and his agent aren't happy about it. 

He is a guy that ended up right in the middle of being hurt and having a bad 3rd year and keeping Shaq Barrett and landing other depth on the EDGE.  He ended up in no man's land for us.  I thought you were saying he is a bust, which he is not, or that Elway is foolsih for not taking the risk to pay him so much next year, which he is not.

Ray and his agent have huge incentive this year.  HIs agent is probably Shane Rays biggest fan and happy with the risk.  If his client has a big year.  His new contract will make his agent a fortune.  Way more that the 5th year option.

Really.  There is risk everywhere with this kid.

One thing it shows is the Broncos have more pass rushers than they do probably any NFL team. 

I like Shane and hope he and his agent are very happy next year. 

Shanes biggest problem is the Broncos could bury him on the depth chart.  Would really like to see him get traded and not see him in KC next year ( he has a Chief logo tattooed on his back).