2019 NFL draft where the jags pick at 32;) (Update: pick at 7)

[Tugboat]

13 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

There is no locks. We all thought Joeckel was the safe sure fire franchise LT and he bombed more than anyone.

You have to take a shot on a QB. There isn't ever going to be a guy that is a sure thing at that position. Even last year all those top guys had questions and concerns and it was one of the best QB classes in a long while.

This one isn't as heralded and I feel like gets a little extra hate because there isn't as many of them, but guys like Haskins, Jones, and Lock definitely have some of the qualities that could make them the guy. Watson had a lot of questions and his throwing strength was a massive question as it was well below league average or what you'd want if I remember. Mahomes was a huge arm but also needed lots of work and was seen as a round 2/3 guy. 

Not even Metcalf, who has neck injury concerns, would be a sure thing. Maybe a defensive player like Oliver, Allen etc. gives you a more likely impact player which would be ok, but we're never getting a QB with that mindset.

Hell, Fournette was a pure "safe, impact immediately" guy as well. We saw how that worked out.

Fowler and Bortles are the only high end firsts that were based on potential. 

Very true.  You can whiff just as hard on some of the "sure things" too.  And the Jaguars certainly have tried their hand at that as well.  The draft is a crapshoot really.  There's nothing wrong with taking risks.  There are no guarantees anyway.  They've gotta be the right risks though.

Which is where i think you have to start questioning...if you're spending a Top-7+ pick on one of these QBs this year, are you taking a smart risk?  Or are you swimming against the current, trying to fire off big on a QB in a year that just isn't as "heralded" at the position?  Sometimes looking back at last year's class, and looking ahead to next year's QB class can have a heavy "grass is always greener" element to it.  But sometimes...it's just not a very good QB class.

Ideally, if i'm going fishing for a QB...i wanna fish in the deeper pond, filled with big fish.  Not skimming guys off a shallow pond at a premium because they have some traits that might make them "the guy".  There were 5 guys last year who had at least as many traits that might make them "the guy".  There might be 5 guys next year too.  And a lot of them might have more of those traits, with less of the flaws/risk factor that this year's guys appear to have.

Obviously circumstances influence this.  When you need a QB, you need them NOW.  But patience can still be a virtue.  In the same sense that sometimes you've just gotta go all-in on a risk high in the draft to get your Franchise QB...sometimes you can also be well-served biting the bullet and waiting until they're actually there, rather than forcing it because you want it now.

It's where i think there's a difference between "QB Fear" in just not drafting one because it's "not a sure thing".  Vs just not liking the available QBs that much.  The latter isn't real "QB fear" imo.

[Adrenaline_Flux]

41 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

There is no locks.

WRONG AGAIN... Drew Lock

[Tugboat]

15 minutes ago, Adrenaline_Flux said:

WRONG AGAIN... Drew Lock

please don't make him the 3rd pick in the draft.

 

Or do...as long as it's not to us i guess.

[.Buzz]

5 hours ago, Tugboat said:

Very true.  You can whiff just as hard on some of the "sure things" too.  And the Jaguars certainly have tried their hand at that as well.  The draft is a crapshoot really.  There's nothing wrong with taking risks.  There are no guarantees anyway.  They've gotta be the right risks though.

Which is where i think you have to start questioning...if you're spending a Top-7+ pick on one of these QBs this year, are you taking a smart risk?  Or are you swimming against the current, trying to fire off big on a QB in a year that just isn't as "heralded" at the position?  Sometimes looking back at last year's class, and looking ahead to next year's QB class can have a heavy "grass is always greener" element to it.  But sometimes...it's just not a very good QB class.

Ideally, if i'm going fishing for a QB...i wanna fish in the deeper pond, filled with big fish.  Not skimming guys off a shallow pond at a premium because they have some traits that might make them "the guy".  There were 5 guys last year who had at least as many traits that might make them "the guy".  There might be 5 guys next year too.  And a lot of them might have more of those traits, with less of the flaws/risk factor that this year's guys appear to have.

Obviously circumstances influence this.  When you need a QB, you need them NOW.  But patience can still be a virtue.  In the same sense that sometimes you've just gotta go all-in on a risk high in the draft to get your Franchise QB...sometimes you can also be well-served biting the bullet and waiting until they're actually there, rather than forcing it because you want it now.

It's where i think there's a difference between "QB Fear" in just not drafting one because it's "not a sure thing".  Vs just not liking the available QBs that much.  The latter isn't real "QB fear" imo.

I'm not saying to just take Lock or Jones for the hell of it and see what happens. Both have questions and wrinkles that need to be worked out, but I believe both have upside to be what we've been looking for a long time now.

I understand if someone may not like one of them or both of them, but based off pure upside, I think there is little argument that with the right coaching (which we have no idea if we have...yet), both could be our QB for the next decade+.

Ideally Haskins is there or we move up to get him and this is a moot point as I think most of us agree he's a guy with less concerns and more of a worthwhile/less scary pick top 5-10, but if not I really would like to see us take a chance on one of the other two that COULD become something pretty good.

Saying we should go "safe" and take Metcalf, Jonah, etc. I just find ridiculous because although they may he slightly safer they also provide tremendous risk themselves. We see "safe" players bomb all the time. There's very few that are like that, and we definitely won't be in range unless for some miracle Quinnen Williams or Bosa drop to us.

[Adrenaline_Flux]

End of the day, there are few (if really any) prospects who are really ever "surefire" booms or busts. We can debate about who we want or would prefer and can say it will be a "disaster" if we take someone, but really that's just the typical hyperbole that comes with the nature of the draft process. It's fine if you don't like Drew Lock or Daniel Jones. However, we need a QB, they have qualities that are worth a first round selection given the value of QBs (shoutout to whoever said they wOuLDnT dRaFt hIm bEfoRe tHe tHiRd), and no one who we pick will be a surefire thing one way or the other. I'm cool if we take one of them and I'm cool if we pass on them for another player at another position. I just hope whoever we pick ends up being a good player and doesn't do anything despicable off the field.

[.Buzz]

6 minutes ago, Adrenaline_Flux said:

End of the day, there are few (if really any) prospects who are really ever "surefire" booms or busts. We can debate about who we want or would prefer and can say it will be a "disaster" if we take someone, but really that's just the typical hyperbole that comes with the nature of the draft process. It's fine if you don't like Drew Lock or Daniel Jones. However, we need a QB, they have qualities that are worth a first round selection given the value of QBs (shoutout to whoever said they wOuLDnT dRaFt hIm bEfoRe tHe tHiRd), and no one who we pick will be a surefire thing one way or the other. I'm cool if we take one of them and I'm cool if we pass on them for another player at another position. I just hope whoever we pick ends up being a good player and doesn't do anything despicable off the field.

I pretty much echo your thoughts here.

If we come away with Oliver, Ferrell, Jonah Williams, Metcalf, etc. I'm not gonna be upset. But if you're asking if I'd prefer to take a shot on a QB prospect that is worth taking a shot on where we will be picking you're damn right that's what I'd prefer.

[Tugboat]

4 hours ago, .Buzz said:

I'm not saying to just take Lock or Jones for the hell of it and see what happens. Both have questions and wrinkles that need to be worked out, but I believe both have upside to be what we've been looking for a long time now.

I understand if someone may not like one of them or both of them, but based off pure upside, I think there is little argument that with the right coaching (which we have no idea if we have...yet), both could be our QB for the next decade+.

Ideally Haskins is there or we move up to get him and this is a moot point as I think most of us agree he's a guy with less concerns and more of a worthwhile/less scary pick top 5-10, but if not I really would like to see us take a chance on one of the other two that COULD become something pretty good.

Saying we should go "safe" and take Metcalf, Jonah, etc. I just find ridiculous because although they may he slightly safer they also provide tremendous risk themselves. We see "safe" players bomb all the time. There's very few that are like that, and we definitely won't be in range unless for some miracle Quinnen Williams or Bosa drop to us.

I really think we're on pretty much the same page in the process and approach.  And certainly when it comes to the volatility and unpredictability of the draft in general and the ridiculous notion of "safe" there.  Just seem to probably be a ways apart on just exactly how much we like guys like Jones and Lock.

 

3 hours ago, .Buzz said:

I pretty much echo your thoughts here.

If we come away with Oliver, Ferrell, Jonah Williams, Metcalf, etc. I'm not gonna be upset. But if you're asking if I'd prefer to take a shot on a QB prospect that is worth taking a shot on where we will be picking you're damn right that's what I'd prefer.

By that same token, i wouldn't exactly be raging upset if we draft one of the QBs either.  I'd certainly be right there hoping they can overcome the flaws enough to feature the clear "starter" traits they have, respectively.

 

The exception being, if we end up drafting Josh Allen this year.  In which case i will rant and rave endlessly about how we drafted the wrong Josh Allen at the wrong position.  And probably be dead wrong, as QB Josh Allen busts out or something, while OLB Josh Allen goes on to multiple All Pro honours and HoF career.  Because that's how the draft goes.  I also really like pass rusher Josh Allen tbh, and would actually entertain the 3-4 discussion if he's what fell to us.

 

But in the meantime, i think it's more fun to think about and talk/argue about different players and scenarios, than to just sorta lay back, rehash what "the experts say" and accept whatever may come and "see what happens".  Que sera sera is less compelling as a forum discussion point i think.

[DuvalsKing]

8 hours ago, .Buzz said:

I pretty much echo your thoughts here.

If we come away with Oliver, Ferrell, Jonah Williams, Metcalf, etc. I'm not gonna be upset. But if you're asking if I'd prefer to take a shot on a QB prospect that is worth taking a shot on where we will be picking you're damn right that's what I'd prefer.

To me it boils down to if the guy you choose is the 7th best guy in the draft. Do you feel Jones or Lock could be the 7th best player in the draft. I think it’s about 20-25 players I’d rather have before I get either 1s name. Does anyone have any numbers on QB efficiency for Lock or Jones? I know Haskin, Murray, and Grier are rated high where does Jones and Lock rate?

[Adrenaline_Flux]

 

[Forge]

^^Come and get him fellas. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

If we dont get a QB in round 1, I kind of hope we get someone in free agency and maybe someone in round 3 or 4 to groom. I feel like drafting someone in round 2 puts you in a weird spot if we end up picking Top-10 again in what could be a strong QB class. There are so many fun defensive prospects it sucks

Also, what are the odds we take Jonah Williams and slide Cam Robinson to RT?

[KhanYouDigIt]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

^^Come and get him fellas. 

What’s a realistic offer iyo?

[Forge]

Just now, KhanYouDigIt said:

What’s a realistic offer iyo?

 

Honestly, really hard to gauge because while I think that this is more of a buyers market, there is a chance that the Giants  escalate the price for you. I'm trying to figure out a way for you guys to do it without next year's first (if not including any actual players), and it's kind of difficult. Last year, the Jets went 6-3 for three thirds over two years (including 2 seconds in current year of deal). I don't think you guys have that kind of firepower though. The Bills gave up a future first & mid round pick to go from 9 to 4 for Sammy. The eagles gave up #8, #77, #100, the next year first, a future 2nd. The eagles got back a future 4 as well. Without something else going into the deal, I think almost any deal for you guys moving up that high includes your 2020 first. Otherwise, I think it's something like 7, this year's and next year's second, a 4/5 this year and a 3 next year? And that's still pretty light, comparatively speaking, for that kind of move but maybe a chance that gets it done?  

You guys may be better off hoping the giants don't make a move and then making a move with the Raiders at 4 / Bucs at 5. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

 

Honestly, really hard to gauge because while I think that this is more of a buyers market, there is a chance that the Giants  escalate the price for you. I'm trying to figure out a way for you guys to do it without next year's first (if not including any actual players), and it's kind of difficult. Last year, the Jets went 6-3 for three thirds over two years (including 2 seconds in current year of deal). I don't think you guys have that kind of firepower though. The Bills gave up a future first & mid round pick to go from 9 to 4 for Sammy. The eagles gave up #8, #77, #100, the next year first, a future 2nd. The eagles got back a future 4 as well. Without something else going into the deal, I think almost any deal for you guys moving up that high includes your 2020 first. Otherwise, I think it's something like 7, this year's and next year's second, a 4/5 this year and a 3 next year? And that's still pretty light, comparatively speaking, for that kind of move but maybe a chance that gets it done?  

You guys may be better off hoping the giants don't make a move and then making a move with the Raiders at 4 / Bucs at 5. 

I know all we have is the past to gauge value but I feel like every draft is so different its tough to say. Unfortunately I think if Haskins goes thru the process and seems to be the clear-cut head and shoulders #1 QB and the only one worth taking in the top-10 plus trading up for no less, then I think the Giants wind up getting him over us. 

[.Buzz]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

 

Honestly, really hard to gauge because while I think that this is more of a buyers market, there is a chance that the Giants  escalate the price for you. I'm trying to figure out a way for you guys to do it without next year's first (if not including any actual players), and it's kind of difficult. Last year, the Jets went 6-3 for three thirds over two years (including 2 seconds in current year of deal). I don't think you guys have that kind of firepower though. The Bills gave up a future first & mid round pick to go from 9 to 4 for Sammy. The eagles gave up #8, #77, #100, the next year first, a future 2nd. The eagles got back a future 4 as well. Without something else going into the deal, I think almost any deal for you guys moving up that high includes your 2020 first. Otherwise, I think it's something like 7, this year's and next year's second, a 4/5 this year and a 3 next year? And that's still pretty light, comparatively speaking, for that kind of move but maybe a chance that gets it done?  

You guys may be better off hoping the giants don't make a move and then making a move with the Raiders at 4 / Bucs at 5. 

Tbh it depends on the draft.

If Haskins ends up lighting the world on fire it'll be more expensive. As it stands right now, doubt we have to give the bank.

Could see 2 1s, but I expect our 1st, 2nd, LAR 3rd and like a 2 next year.