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2019 NFL draft where the jags pick at 32;) (Update: pick at 7)


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1 minute ago, Tugboat said:

There are obviously still scouting meetings and big discussions to be had yet though.  Plus obviously, decisions about who is even running things.  I'm not going to assume everyone tunnel-visions like Caldwell for Bortles.

But yes, obviously the scouts and GM candidates have been following these guys all season and have some strong opinions by this point.  That's still very different from what you keep insinuating, that they basically already know who their guys are.  When we don't even know who the guys making the call are at this point.

Yeah, we're just going to have to agree to disagree on the latter.

I most definitely think most GM's/scouts have "their guy" in place when it comes to the QB position. I don't think they need to see a final bowl game or what they do at the combine to determine whether they want to tap that guy as "the guy". As I said prior, a bad drug test, serious off-field issues being brought up, or an injury and stuff like that will obviously change things. But these guys have been watching these guys all through college, and possibly even dating back before that. I don't think Caldwell, who came under the Polian/Dimitroff tree, came up himself with having a good idea of who "his guy" is before the college season is over.

As I said, I never said there can't be changes. But you're damn right I believe Coughlin has his guy at QB in the draft whether it's a highly touted guy we could take top 10 in Haskins or a guy he likes the upside/potential of that he wants to target in round 3 ala Tyree Jackson (not that he couldn't be higher or lower than this, but still...)

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11 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

Yeah, we're just going to have to agree to disagree on the latter.

I most definitely think most GM's/scouts have "their guy" in place when it comes to the QB position. I don't think they need to see a final bowl game or what they do at the combine to determine whether they want to tap that guy as "the guy". As I said prior, a bad drug test, serious off-field issues being brought up, or an injury and stuff like that will obviously change things. But these guys have been watching these guys all through college, and possibly even dating back before that. I don't think Caldwell, who came under the Polian/Dimitroff tree, came up himself with having a good idea of who "his guy" is before the college season is over.

As I said, I never said there can't be changes. But you're damn right I believe Coughlin has his guy at QB in the draft whether it's a highly touted guy we could take top 10 in Haskins or a guy he likes the upside/potential of that he wants to target in round 3 ala Tyree Jackson (not that he couldn't be higher or lower than this, but still...)

I'm sure they have favourites and ideas...but until the staff is actually assembled, i don't think you can assume they're zeroed in on one specific guy like Kevin Costner in Draft Day with his little post-it note or whatever.

Not every GM just goes rogue and makes their QB pick basically alone like Caldwell/Bortles.  Other GMs like to take a more collaborative approach and at least hear what their staff have to say about the guys and stuff.  And right now...we don't know what exactly our staff is going to look like, or who is going to be on it.  So those meetings and discussions very likely haven't had a chance to take place yet.  I just don't think you can assume that whoever/wherever our 2019 draft GM is...they've already basically picked their guy, no matter what.

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1 minute ago, Tugboat said:

I'm sure they have favourites and ideas...but until the staff is actually assembled, i don't think you can assume they're zeroed in on one specific guy like Kevin Costner in Draft Day with his little post-it note or whatever.

Not every GM just goes rogue and makes their QB pick basically alone like Caldwell/Bortles.  Other GMs like to take a more collaborative approach and at least hear what their staff have to say about the guys and stuff.  And right now...we don't know what exactly our staff is going to look like, or who is going to be on it.  So those meetings and discussions very likely haven't had a chance to take place yet.  I just don't think you can assume that whoever/wherever our 2019 draft GM is...they've already basically picked their guy, no matter what.

I never said the selection is on the ticket already, I said the staff/GM/runner of football operations likely has already targeted/identified "their guy" at this point in the process. I never said things can't alter or change anything regarding that. There is indeed more stuff to be done, but it's December. I'm sure they have "their guy". If things pop up in the draft process in a negative way that may alter it, but I'd be shocked if a QB that wasn't seen highly or close with the others up to this point bursts on the scene this late in the process, especially at the QB position. They likely have at least one, maybe 2-3 guys they have on the board listed as potential franchise guys (if they like said QB(s) in this class and have them ranked. 

This all stems from JC basically saying the team/GM's don't have any idea what they're doing right now. They also don't know who will declare so they also haven't prepared for that, which I would say is the opposite of what they probably do. They probably have their board with all underclassment ranked in their board and people who decide to stay just get removed, not get put up there because they declare.

 

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Generally speaking, legitimate work into a draft begins the prior January. So, 2019 draft work would have started (at least in a serious manner) in January 2018. A lot of the pre-draft stuff we see from January through March is moreso thorough due diligence and can play a role in 1) confirming what you have already noted, 2) serving as potential tiebreakers, or more rarely 3) exposure to guys who you may not have had as much early work on (either due to them breaking out or being from smaller schools, etc.).

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6 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

I never said the selection is on the ticket already, I said the staff/GM/runner of football operations likely has already targeted/identified "their guy" at this point in the process. I never said things can't alter or change anything regarding that. There is indeed more stuff to be done, but it's December. I'm sure they have "their guy". If things pop up in the draft process in a negative way that may alter it, but I'd be shocked if a QB that wasn't seen highly or close with the others up to this point bursts on the scene this late in the process, especially at the QB position. They likely have at least one, maybe 2-3 guys they have on the board listed as potential franchise guys (if they like said QB(s) in this class and have them ranked. 

This all stems from JC basically saying the team/GM's don't have any idea what they're doing right now. They also don't know who will declare so they also haven't prepared for that, which I would say is the opposite of what they probably do. They probably have their board with all underclassment ranked in their board and people who decide to stay just get removed, not get put up there because they declare.

 

Yeah.  The latter part of that, i get what you're saying, absolutely.  There's far more work done than that makes it sound, and key personnel people aren't just walking in cold to these prospects in November by any means.  I just think with an organization in transition, there's still a lot of stuff to put in place before anyone can really know exactly what they're doing...as a staff.  Whether they're even zeroed in on any 1st round draft QB or maybe just a Day2 pick and a FA (which still has plenty of things to play out) may not even be firmly established...if we don't even know who the GM is going to be.  They may not even be in the organization and really specifically thinking about the Jaguars situations at all right now.

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1 minute ago, Tugboat said:

Yeah.  The latter part of that, i get what you're saying, absolutely.  There's far more work done than that makes it sound, and key personnel people aren't just walking in cold to these prospects in November by any means.  I just think with an organization in transition, there's still a lot of stuff to put in place before anyone can really know exactly what they're doing...as a staff.  Whether they're even zeroed in on any 1st round draft QB or maybe just a Day2 pick and a FA (which still has plenty of things to play out) may not even be firmly established...if we don't even know who the GM is going to be.  They may not even be in the organization and really specifically thinking about the Jaguars situations at all right now.

Yeah, as I said, there is work to be done and say we get a new HC/GM in the building things will be ironed out, but whoever the GM and whoever else we bring in (if we do fire Caldwell and/or Marrone, etc.) I'm sure probably has the guy they have pegged as the guy at this point in time and at a position like QB, is likely much more cemented unless he has very close grades on multiple QB's which could be possible in which a big time bowl game vs. an average one or something along those lines maybe could influence something. This doesn't mean they're thinking of that guy for the Jaguars, but these scouts/GM's have their guys at this point in time who they are likely going to be slamming the table for.

Like, if we fired Caldwell and brought in guys for an interview, I'm willing to bet that GM would come with a list and writeup of the QB's in this class and likely give his reasoning for the guy who he likes the most. Whoever is hired, probably asks HC candidates their thoughts on QB's from the upcoming class/watch tape/the GM lists his guy(s) and see's how the HC candidate responds. At least that's how I would imagine it would go. In a situation where the QB situation isn't in place it'd be different, but with it being as critical as it is I'm sure Shad/Coughlin would want to know the GM's plan at the position if he was hired with a name or potentially a couple names.

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1 hour ago, Tugboat said:

It's easy to see what some people like about Lock, but i have such a hard time with the issues he has.  He really doesn't handle pressure well or manipulate a pocket.  And he's coming out of a system that doesn't ask him to, or to make a lot of pro level reads.  A lot of it doesn't even look like reads at all, just pre-determined stuff.  It's all very tailored to mask his flaws in that.

Maybe he gets into an NFL system and can sit and learn and overcome that stuff when actually asked to...but those types of red flags scare the bejeepers out of me.  You're basically drafting a tall guy with an arm, and hoping to mold them into an NFL Quarterback.  Risky doesn't even start to cover it.

Lets not get it misconstrued if we pick where we sit as of right now in the top 10 I'm not wasting a pick on any one of these QBs that is blasphemous. Now if they find a way to trade back into the first round than comeback up and get him than cool. I'm just saying as of now he is the best QB talent wise that i've seen. All of these QBs need work Finley is a big kid with a big arm and he is sneaky athletic but his delivery is long and suspect. Will Grier is ok but i'm worried about his arm he has intangibles but his arm strength is just good enough to play next level there are a few ways that this team can go but it would have to be at the top of the second or the bottom of the first. As we all know through the Blaine Gabbert experiment gone terribly wrong you can't judge a guy based on athletic ability and arm talent alone.

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2 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

Yeah, as I said, there is work to be done and say we get a new HC/GM in the building things will be ironed out, but whoever the GM and whoever else we bring in (if we do fire Caldwell and/or Marrone, etc.) I'm sure probably has the guy they have pegged as the guy at this point in time and at a position like QB, is likely much more cemented unless he has very close grades on multiple QB's which could be possible in which a big time bowl game vs. an average one or something along those lines maybe could influence something. This doesn't mean they're thinking of that guy for the Jaguars, but these scouts/GM's have their guys at this point in time who they are likely going to be slamming the table for.

Like, if we fired Caldwell and brought in guys for an interview, I'm willing to bet that GM would come with a list and writeup of the QB's in this class and likely give his reasoning for the guy who he likes the most. Whoever is hired, probably asks HC candidates their thoughts on QB's from the upcoming class/watch tape/the GM lists his guy(s) and see's how the HC candidate responds. At least that's how I would imagine it would go. In a situation where the QB situation isn't in place it'd be different, but with it being as critical as it is I'm sure Shad/Coughlin would want to know the GM's plan at the position if he was hired with a name or potentially a couple names.

Exactly.  Which is where i think it's premature to suggest there's any firm plan in place right now here.  Even if the individual scouts and GMs all have pretty clear ideas about who they like at QB.

ex//What if we end up with a new GM, and say...Flacco ends up a FA, and they like Flacco as a fix?  Certainly even if they were interviewing today...they couldn't exactly walk in and say, "i'd like to sign Flacco and then draft X prospect on Day 2".  It's still very much up in the air, and could be a big domino.  Right now, i think any GM worth their salt, is going to have their preferences and ideas, but they've gotta have the flexibility to actually let things unfold, and adapt plans accordingly.  There are still potentially big things to come in various domains, that can change the landscape pretty dramatically.  It's still November.

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Just now, Tugboat said:

Exactly.  Which is where i think it's premature to suggest there's any firm plan in place right now here.  Even if the individual scouts and GMs all have pretty clear ideas about who they like at QB.

ex//What if we end up with a new GM, and say...Flacco ends up a FA, and they like Flacco as a fix?  Certainly even if they were interviewing today...they couldn't exactly walk in and say, "i'd like to sign Flacco and then draft X prospect on Day 2".  It's still very much up in the air, and could be a big domino.  Right now, i think any GM worth their salt, is going to have their preferences and ideas, but they've gotta have the flexibility to actually let things unfold, and adapt plans accordingly.  There are still potentially big things to come in various domains, that can change the landscape pretty dramatically.  It's still November.

I mean, Oesher in his tweet said based on his feeling/what he's heard, he expects one brought in via the drat and FA. I don't think one or the other precludes another move being made. This is the most important position in the NFL, possibly all of sports. The Ravens have Flacco on a big contract and just selected a QB in the 1st round this past season for the future. Even if he were to hit the market, I would fully expect them to be all over the draft QB wise to have a future plan in place. You aren't likely getting a franchise/long-term solution in FA, especially not this year even if Flacco were to hit.

I have a hard time believing a GM comes in here and says "I would like to go the FA route and forget about the drafting of one" unless he seriously feels there is nothing in the draft worth taking early, in which case I get the feeling unless he impresses the hell out of Khan/Coughlin, wouldn't get hired.

Too much young talent with a lot of $$ allocated to continue going on with no potential young QB in place that could develop into something. May need to hear the quote from Oesher audio wise, but I'm sure he's right on this one and the organization benching Bortles midseason with games to be played with that cap hit kind of points to what he said imo.

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21 minutes ago, Adrenaline_Flux said:

Generally speaking, legitimate work into a draft begins the prior January. So, 2019 draft work would have started (at least in a serious manner) in January 2018. A lot of the pre-draft stuff we see from January through March is moreso thorough due diligence and can play a role in 1) confirming what you have already noted, 2) serving as potential tiebreakers, or more rarely 3) exposure to guys who you may not have had as much early work on (either due to them breaking out or being from smaller schools, etc.).

Exactly what I've been saying...

Not going to act like I work in a FO or am a complete expert on this manner, but I've been following the draft pretty damn closely for several years now and based on things I've read/heard have stated exactly this.

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1 hour ago, .Buzz said:

I mean, Oesher in his tweet said based on his feeling/what he's heard, he expects one brought in via the drat and FA. I don't think one or the other precludes another move being made. This is the most important position in the NFL, possibly all of sports. The Ravens have Flacco on a big contract and just selected a QB in the 1st round this past season for the future. Even if he were to hit the market, I would fully expect them to be all over the draft QB wise to have a future plan in place. You aren't likely getting a franchise/long-term solution in FA, especially not this year even if Flacco were to hit.

I have a hard time believing a GM comes in here and says "I would like to go the FA route and forget about the drafting of one" unless he seriously feels there is nothing in the draft worth taking early, in which case I get the feeling unless he impresses the hell out of Khan/Coughlin, wouldn't get hired.

Too much young talent with a lot of $$ allocated to continue going on with no potential young QB in place that could develop into something. May need to hear the quote from Oesher audio wise, but I'm sure he's right on this one and the organization benching Bortles midseason with games to be played with that cap hit kind of points to what he said imo.

I mean, you have to get a young QB in the draft for sure.  Whether it's a top round sort of guy, or more of a developmental later pick could change depending on what happens with FA though.

 

But either way...i'm not sure i'd be happy with this.  Basically hiring a guy because he wants to spend a 1st rounder on a QB or whatever.

Certainly want someone who is going to have a plan to address the QB spot, now, and for the future...and a high draft pick is almost certainly going to be a component of that.  But if you're talking really early...idk.  I'm not sure there's a QB worth a pick as high as we're going to be picking.  But beyond that, it's a slippery slope from that...to Khan/Coughlin basically picking a GM based on who wants they guy they want.  Which would come off a bit as a new round of dysfunctional organizational structure.

 

That is probably the scenario we're in though.  Assuming Coughlin is staying, which seems highly likely.  Just seems problematic.

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I have a hard time believing this team knows exactly who their guy is already because you dont even know who is available and what pick we have. That's all I'm saying. Their favorite QB could go #1 so do they just take their next favorite QB despite him not being "their guy" that they've been looking at for 2 years? I sure hope they do most of their work more than 3 months before the draft but sometimes it makes you wonder looking at some picks. Unless we trade up to #1 which has yet to be determined as well, you just can't say they are taking a QB round 1. 

Another thing, if they have been scouting for years or at least several months, there was an expectation that Bortles was "The Guy" anyways. Even in the beginning of the year we were 3-1 and no one was hitting the panic button at the QB position. Now they are going to be looking at QB completely differently because instead of it being "yea this prospect looks good, but we dont really need him" now its "oh crap, we need a QB badly, we need to dig deeper in guys x y & z"

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6 hours ago, .Buzz said:

The Haskins train is leaving the station. Who's with me?

lol.  What's Watson gonna say about his training partner/colleague?  "Yeah, he's got some really janky inconsistent mechanical stuff and hasn't proven a lick yet.  He's probably got years of work ahead of him ironing stuff out before he's any good"?  lol.

I can see the upside with Haskins, but man...i really don't trust this organization to develop someone that raw, properly.  And i've got pretty mixed feelings on Haskins to begin with.

 

Especially if this train is riding straight to the Top-10 like it sounds like with a lot of people these days.  I'm...not on that train right now.

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