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2019 NFL draft where the jags pick at 32;) (Update: pick at 7)

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.Buzz

.Buzz

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4 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I have been following this team its whole life and I have never wanted to blindly draft a QB high in round 1 and now I want one badly now. I don't want to get cute thinking we can find a decent one in round 2 or 3

It's bad but I'm sort of the same way. Do I feel like Lock would be a large risk? Sure. But it sounds like he has a lot of the tools you look for.

I know back last year we weren't thinking about Mahomes being taken high and when we heard the Chiefs took him some were surprised even. Now, people are coming out of the woodwork on how we were stupid to take Fournette over Mahomes (which is obvious now, but at draft time people probably would've thought that way unless you were all in on Mahomes (there were some who were enamored but his tools, but let's be serious here...he wasn't seen as a top 5 or even 10 pick by most from what I remember. 

Watson was in the same boat.

If you think a guy has a ton of talent and the tools are there don't think twice. 

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.Buzz

.Buzz

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Just now, .Buzz said:

It's bad but I'm sort of the same way. Do I feel like Lock would be a large risk? Sure. But it sounds like he has a lot of the tools you look for.

I know back last year we weren't thinking about Mahomes being taken high and when we heard the Chiefs took him some were surprised even. Now, people are coming out of the woodwork on how we were stupid to take Fournette over Mahomes (which is obvious now, but at draft time people probably would've thought that way unless you were all in on Mahomes (there were some who were enamored but his tools, but let's be serious here...he wasn't seen as a top 5 or even 10 pick by most from what I remember. 

Watson was in the same boat.

If you think a guy has a ton of talent and the tools are there don't think twice. 

Reason I mention Lock and only Lock is because the two QBs ranked ahead of him are obvious guys you'd take imo.

Lock is the guy with loud tools but some obvious questions. Daniel Jones/Grier (of they enter) are more low upside but safe picks imo. Doubt you legit look at guys like that, at least based on where things stand right now, that early in the draft.

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Tugboat

Tugboat

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3 hours ago, .Buzz said:

It's bad but I'm sort of the same way. Do I feel like Lock would be a large risk? Sure. But it sounds like he has a lot of the tools you look for.

I know back last year we weren't thinking about Mahomes being taken high and when we heard the Chiefs took him some were surprised even. Now, people are coming out of the woodwork on how we were stupid to take Fournette over Mahomes (which is obvious now, but at draft time people probably would've thought that way unless you were all in on Mahomes (there were some who were enamored but his tools, but let's be serious here...he wasn't seen as a top 5 or even 10 pick by most from what I remember. 

Watson was in the same boat.

If you think a guy has a ton of talent and the tools are there don't think twice. 

Is 2011 really so long ago?  xD

I get the mentality there.  If you really truly believe a guy can be a quarterback who stabilizes your franchise for years...pull the trigger.  Absolutely.  There's no such thing as drafting a franchise QB "too high".  But at the same time, that's also the exact mentality that when tinted with desperation...makes Gabbert/Locker/Ponder happen.  When you start looking at some tools and talk yourself into making that pick out of QB needy desperation because..."Hey, they've got some tools. They could be good.  It could work maybe.  It worked with that guy.  We really need a guy."

 

It's gotta be about really loving Drew Lock (or whoever it is) specifically imo.  Not about frustration and desperation for a QB driving this notion that because it worked with some other guys, it might work here too.

Do you really like Drew Lock specifically that much though?  Is he a guy you'd be banging the table for as your QB for the foreseeable future?  Or do you more like the idea of Lock maybe being good? 

I mean, if you're really sold on Lock, that's cool.  But is he a guy you'd take like Top-5 if you had to?  That's where i think you have to kinda be able to flip the "never too high to draft a franchise QB" thing on its head for a bit of a gut check.  If you'd bang the table to take a QB in the teens, you should probably be comfortable if you had to take them higher imo.  By the same reasoning you'd apply to taking a guy like that in the mid-high 1st to begin with.  If you really really believe in the guy and are convinced he's going to be your franchise answer...it really isn't going to matter if you take him at 15 or 5.  You'd obviously prefer to save assets and get 'em later, but you're gonna be happy either way...walking away from the draft with what you think is your franchise answer at QB.

 

I do get it though.  I know if we were talking about a guy like say, Josh Allen as a prospect last year...a guy who was also seen as a pretty major project with some fairly obvious flaws, who a lot of people were projecting into the early teens range, i'd be banging the drum like a lunatic if he were in this year's class.  I liked him enough that i thought what the Bills did was entirely reasonable, going up to make sure they got him just outside the Top-5.  Like Mahomes, he's a guy who had some truly special tools and traits to go along with his flaws and lack of polish.  With Lock though, i just don't see it.  The traits and tools just don't seem special to me.  It's a lot of decent/good, and with scarier flaws (especially the way he handles pressure) counterbalancing.  There are things to like there still.  If we're talking a later-1st, which is essentially the same as a 2nd round flyer with bonus 5th year option when it comes to QBs...yeah, go wild and see what happens.  The idea of taking Lock ~Top-5 kinda makes me gag though.

If that's not the case and you/whoever is making the pick/whatever are really that sold on Lock, so be it.  Draft away!  I don't really see it the same, but i can at least understand swinging for it.  I just think that sense of urgency and desperation to get a guy just because he's what's there and has something to latch onto and convince yourself "maybe", are where "reaching" for a QB can be really dangerous and ill-advised.  Especially when, as we've seen with Gabbert and now Bortles...if you take a QB that high, it's not just the utility of that high pick you're burning, you're also pretty much tied to them while they flounder and thrash around for at least 3+ years if it does end up being a "miss".

 

TL;DR:  I just think that when the conversation starts to take on that sort of tone, you really have to gut check...Do you want Drew Lock?  Or do you really just want someone and he's the guy who seems like he might be available?  'Cause it's a pretty important distinction imo.

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.Buzz

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44 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

Is 2011 really so long ago?  xD

I get the mentality there.  If you really truly believe a guy can be a quarterback who stabilizes your franchise for years...pull the trigger.  Absolutely.  There's no such thing as drafting a franchise QB "too high".  But at the same time, that's also the exact mentality that when tinted with desperation...makes Gabbert/Locker/Ponder happen.  When you start looking at some tools and talk yourself into making that pick out of QB needy desperation because..."Hey, they've got some tools. They could be good.  It could work maybe.  It worked with that guy.  We really need a guy."

 

It's gotta be about really loving Drew Lock (or whoever it is) specifically imo.  Not about frustration and desperation for a QB driving this notion that because it worked with some other guys, it might work here too.

Do you really like Drew Lock specifically that much though?  Is he a guy you'd be banging the table for as your QB for the foreseeable future?  Or do you more like the idea of Lock maybe being good? 

I mean, if you're really sold on Lock, that's cool.  But is he a guy you'd take like Top-5 if you had to?  That's where i think you have to kinda be able to flip the "never too high to draft a franchise QB" thing on its head for a bit of a gut check.  If you'd bang the table to take a QB in the teens, you should probably be comfortable if you had to take them higher imo.  By the same reasoning you'd apply to taking a guy like that in the mid-high 1st to begin with.  If you really really believe in the guy and are convinced he's going to be your franchise answer...it really isn't going to matter if you take him at 15 or 5.  You'd obviously prefer to save assets and get 'em later, but you're gonna be happy either way...walking away from the draft with what you think is your franchise answer at QB.

 

I do get it though.  I know if we were talking about a guy like say, Josh Allen as a prospect last year...a guy who was also seen as a pretty major project with some fairly obvious flaws, who a lot of people were projecting into the early teens range, i'd be banging the drum like a lunatic if he were in this year's class.  I liked him enough that i thought what the Bills did was entirely reasonable, going up to make sure they got him just outside the Top-5.  Like Mahomes, he's a guy who had some truly special tools and traits to go along with his flaws and lack of polish.  With Lock though, i just don't see it.  The traits and tools just don't seem special to me.  It's a lot of decent/good, and with scarier flaws (especially the way he handles pressure) counterbalancing.  There are things to like there still.  If we're talking a later-1st, which is essentially the same as a 2nd round flyer with bonus 5th year option when it comes to QBs...yeah, go wild and see what happens.  The idea of taking Lock ~Top-5 kinda makes me gag though.

If that's not the case and you/whoever is making the pick/whatever are really that sold on Lock, so be it.  Draft away!  I don't really see it the same, but i can at least understand swinging for it.  I just think that sense of urgency and desperation to get a guy just because he's what's there and has something to latch onto and convince yourself "maybe", are where "reaching" for a QB can be really dangerous and ill-advised.  Especially when, as we've seen with Gabbert and now Bortles...if you take a QB that high, it's not just the utility of that high pick you're burning, you're also pretty much tied to them while they flounder and thrash around for at least 3+ years if it does end up being a "miss".

 

TL;DR:  I just think that when the conversation starts to take on that sort of tone, you really have to gut check...Do you want Drew Lock?  Or do you really just want someone and he's the guy who seems like he might be available?  'Cause it's a pretty important distinction imo.

Exactly why I'm not making the pick.

I'm not sure I'd have taken Mahomes if I was KC in there position either myself. But they obviously saw something in him and had a decent vet to hold the reigns for a little bit. I think that's good a long way for a guy with raw tools like Lock. Idk if I'm enamored with him, but I wasn't enamored with other QBs just like Mahomes and co. either and look where we sit and look where KC sits.

This would be the year to do it from a fan perspective too. Maybe if Bosa or some other dominant DL that you are sure will be an all pro you don't ala Bortles/Mack, but if we keep Coughlin and next year we have a similar year he may hit the road so the next FO that is hired won't be graded with the QB he takes if we go that route. We may try and salvage a QB if they don't work out, but they also would be less likely to wait for 3-4 years before cutting bait like a new FO that took a QB would do.

So if we land Lock and he works out we're set, if not Coughlin is out, new regime comes in, new QB can be brought in.

Sucks to look at it that way but I don't like sitting and waiting for "next year" on QBs. Things happen, shine rubs off some guys, guys take steps back and I don't want to sit here and get on the Tua bandwagon when we may have similar questions about his game at the next level after another year of play too.

This doesn't mean blindly take a QB, but if you think a guy has the tools to be a franchise guy take him and dont look back. I will say, if we do take Lock, we better have someone better than Kessler or a guy like Henne back when we got Bortles so the rookie can sit for at least half a season or so, if not a full year.

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