Matt Ryan and Falcons agree to contract extension first 30 million a year QB

[EvilenFroggen]

9 hours ago, FalconFan13 said:

Luckily the person who stopped us from winning the last one is now in San Fran although he is a great OC in general.  He for 1 1/2 quarters called the dumbest game of his life at the most important time.   2 or 3 runs total up by 25 points with a quarter left just doesn't make any sense at all and never will.    Even then Ryan still put us in a position to win quite a few times only to have Freeman completely whiff on a block to cause a sack fumble.  Even more Ryan still put us in play to win the game with an amazing throw to julio and another throw to Sanu that once again got called back by Jake Matthews on a hold call.    I felt so bad for Ryan in that game the man literally played one of the top 3 or 4 games of all time in the superbowl and it still wasn't enough.  I don't know wtf more people could have asked of him that season honestly.  He did more than enough to win the SB based on what he gave the team that year.

Don't forget, Jake Delhomme had an amazing Super Bowl game too.

[TXsteeler]

11 hours ago, Uncle Buck said:

Let's hope Rodgers holds out for every penny he thinks he's worth.  Best of luck to him! 

Unless they are afraid of a holdout the packers should let Rodgers' contract run out and franchise him twice cause that'll be cheaper than a new deal for him. That puts him at 4 more seasons anyways.

Unless they think the Franchise thing is going to be done soon because of the Brees situation.

[cddolphin]

15 hours ago, incognito_man said:

Is it though?

Good question. Stand by..

[49erurtaza]

 

[Raves]

17 hours ago, Broadway Joe said:

He´s the last guy I would expect to take a pay cut. Nice surprise.

17 hours ago, TitanLegend said:

Still taking up a gigantic amount of the Saints cap space, but yeah I suppose it is a pay cut relative to what he could have gotten.

Brees maxed out his value with the Saints based on what they wanted to bring in FA to put a title team around him in the next 2 years and what they would have left.  I don't mind Brees doing this, but I'm wondering when QBs might start taking a note from someone like LeBron, although the NBA is less injury prone, and start working on 1-3 year deals with player options to try and maximize their profits each season especially if winning a title is a priority and not just maximizing profits.  If possible, not sure if it is, wait to sign your contract till they sign the FAs they wanted, do a 3 year contract with a player option for year 2, first year of the contract ends up being the majority of the remaining cap, second and third year are at the same/higher rate but non-guaranteed unless career ending injury occurs in which case 100% is guaranteed and 50% becomes guaranteed if cut otherwise, then they just opt out in the 2nd year and repeat the contract process.  More security than a franchise tag but also helps the team put a better team around them to win a Super Bowl.

 

8 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

Only you don’t have that. No trades of franchise QBs since the new CBA for top picks neither proves nor disproves the fact that it would be done if the opportunity presented itself. How often were franchise QBs being traded before the new CBA? Very very rarely. Just like teams don’t often trade away healthy franchise LTs or healthy franchise centers, they’re even less likely to trade away a healthy franchise QB.

So you can for sure agree to disagree. Just do it under the knowledge that your logic is flawed and that you’re living in lalaland if you think a team would give up the 17th pick in the first round for Sam Bradford, but wouldn’t give up a top 3 pick in the draft if they could land a player like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, etc. to galvanize their franchise. Keep believing that the Browns or Jets would decline such a trade opportunity with the amount of cap space they have available.

I agree here.  The fact that the trades haven't happened isn't an indicator that teams wouldn't pay that, just that teams that have those players know that with a good draft/FA that they will be right back in the mix for a SB.  The Saints are a perfect example.  After 3 seasons of 7-9 and the worst defense in the NFL, they had a phenomenal draft and FA (arguably better than the Rams this year even) and they catapulted to being a play away from the NFCCG and what I think was a better match-up in Philly compared to the Vikings/Rams for the Saints.  If they had traded away Brees even with the great offseason the Saints would've been at best a 7-9 team again as Brees, even his diminished condition, is still a top 5 franchise QB that lifts this team up.  I think any team that was even remotely in the right direction would trade a top 3 pick for a franchise QB without thinking twice because although it might not work out in the first year, the next 2-5 years (barring injury/age regression) are open to making a run with just one good offseason.

[TXsteeler]

Since people either can't do math or, most likely, don't realize how much the salary cap has gone up I'll repost this from one of my posts back in December about Cousins.

Quote

When Kaepernick signed for $21M a year in 2014 it was 15.8% of the salary cap that year.

When Flacco signed for $20.1M a year in 2013 it was 16.3% of the salary cap that year.

When Carson Palmer signed for $13.3M a year in 2005 it was 15.5% of the salary cap that year.

When Vick signed for $13M a year in 2004 it was 16.1% of the salary cap that year.

When Rodgers signed for $22M a year in 2013 it was 17.9% of the salary cap that year.

When Ryan signed for $20.75M a year in 2013 it was 16.9% of the salary cap that year.

When Luck signed for $23.3M a year in 2016 it was 15.0% of the salary cap that year.

When Carr signed for $25M a year in 2017 it was 15.0% of the salary cap that year.

30/177.2 = 16.9% of the salary cap this year.

That is conveniently very close to what he signed for last time. In 2013 he signed for $20.75M a year when the salary cap was $123M that was actually 0.1687% as opposed to this contracts 0.1693%, a 0.0006% different from his 2013 contract.

I'll also take this from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salary_cap#National_Football_League to explain the more important context here that most people aren't realizing.

 

Year	Maximum team salary
2018	$177.2 million[14]
2017	$167.00 million
2016	$155.27 million[15]
2015	$143.28 million[16]
2014	$133 million[17]
2013	$123 million[18]
2012	$120.6 million[19]
2011	$120 million[19]
2010	Uncapped
2009	$123 million
2008	$116 million
2007	$109 million
2006	$102 million
2005	$85.5 million

Back about 12 year ago we can see that the salary cap started to drastically rise with a $15M increase followed by three straight years of $7M increases, huge gains. But then the 2010 season happened with an uncapped year and the salary cap dropped $3M followed by a year of only going up $0.6M then $2.4M after that. So from 2009 to 2013 there was a gap where the Salary cap did not rise at all, and yet during those years we saw Rodgers, Ryan, and Flacco all sign their contracts above, and, in 2004 and 2005 we saw Palmer and Vick sign their monster contracts, before the salary cap increased by massive amounts. For all of those contracts, 3 of which were over 16% of the cap and one of which was 15.5%, the NFL either knew the salary cap was going to boom soon after, or they made the deals not expecting it to do so.

The NFL is now in its most prosperous period of all time (based on the salary cap's rise) and it will not drop anytime soon as the TV deals are locked in until after 2022.

More importantly, even with woes about TV ratings, the new Fox deal shows that the NFL is able to continue to demand money hand over fist, "Under the five-year deal, Fox will be paying about $60 million per game, up from the $45 million per game CBS and Comcast's NBC was paying for broadcast rights this season, according to the source."

The NFL salary cap is going to continue to rise throughout the next 5 years, so any deal that isn't guaranteeing money into 2023 means nothing. That 16.9% of the SC that the Falcons are paying this year could easily turn into a number below 16% if the salary cap goes up another $10M next year.

Sorry about all this white text, that wikipedia copy paste messed something up adding a table and I can't remove it for some reason.

[TecmoSuperJoe]

31 minutes ago, DaveDX said:

Don't forget, Jake Delhomme had an amazing Super Bowl game too.

What does Jake Delhomme's performance in the Super Bowl have to do with Matt Ryan?

[TXsteeler]

Also he took a lower overall guaranteed % than Luck or Cousins who got 70.75% and 100% respectively to Ryan's 66.67%.

[cddolphin]

19 minutes ago, TXsteeler said:

Since people either can't do math or, most likely, don't realize how much the salary cap has gone up I'll repost this from one of my posts back in December about Cousins.

To add to this -

Year: Average Top 10 QB Salary (% of that year's cap)

2018: $25.47m (14.4%)
2017: $23.71m (14.2%)
2016: $24.46m (15.8%)
2015: $20.86m (14.6%)
2014: $19.19m (14.4%)
2013: $18.46m (12.4%)
2012: $16.15m (13.4%)
2011: $14.59m (12.1%)

 

2011 was the last year the data was available on Spotrac.

Looks like relative QB salaries haven't moved much over the past 5 years or so, and only went up a couple percentage points overall during this time frame.

[areksoo]

1 hour ago, TXsteeler said:

Since people either can't do math or, most likely, don't realize how much the salary cap has gone up I'll repost this from one of my posts back in December about Cousins.

30/177.2 = 16.9% of the salary cap this year.

That is conveniently very close to what he signed for last time. In 2013 he signed for $20.75M a year when the salary cap was $123M that was actually 0.1687% as opposed to this contracts 0.1693%, a 0.0006% different from his 2013 contract.

I'll also take this from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salary_cap#National_Football_League to explain the more important context here that most people aren't realizing.

 

Year	Maximum team salary
2018	$177.2 million[14]
2017	$167.00 million
2016	$155.27 million[15]
2015	$143.28 million[16]
2014	$133 million[17]
2013	$123 million[18]
2012	$120.6 million[19]
2011	$120 million[19]
2010	Uncapped
2009	$123 million
2008	$116 million
2007	$109 million
2006	$102 million
2005	$85.5 million

Back about 12 year ago we can see that the salary cap started to drastically rise with a $15M increase followed by three straight years of $7M increases, huge gains. But then the 2010 season happened with an uncapped year and the salary cap dropped $3M followed by a year of only going up $0.6M then $2.4M after that. So from 2009 to 2013 there was a gap where the Salary cap did not rise at all, and yet during those years we saw Rodgers, Ryan, and Flacco all sign their contracts above, and, in 2004 and 2005 we saw Palmer and Vick sign their monster contracts, before the salary cap increased by massive amounts. For all of those contracts, 3 of which were over 16% of the cap and one of which was 15.5%, the NFL either knew the salary cap was going to boom soon after, or they made the deals not expecting it to do so.

The NFL is now in its most prosperous period of all time (based on the salary cap's rise) and it will not drop anytime soon as the TV deals are locked in until after 2022.

More importantly, even with woes about TV ratings, the new Fox deal shows that the NFL is able to continue to demand money hand over fist, "Under the five-year deal, Fox will be paying about $60 million per game, up from the $45 million per game CBS and Comcast's NBC was paying for broadcast rights this season, according to the source."

The NFL salary cap is going to continue to rise throughout the next 5 years, so any deal that isn't guaranteeing money into 2023 means nothing. That 16.9% of the SC that the Falcons are paying this year could easily turn into a number below 16% if the salary cap goes up another $10M next year.

Sorry about all this white text, that wikipedia copy paste messed something up adding a table and I can't remove it for some reason.

So going by those numbers, assuming Rodgers will still demand 17.9% of the salary cap and projecting next year's cap (just a simple linear projection from 2011), then Rodgers should get somewhere around $33 million per year.  If he waits until 2020 when he becomes a FA, then it's $34.8 million.

I wonder though being the best QB in the league and knowing the cap keeps increasing, could he demand something like 17.9% of the salary cap each year rather than a set amount? 

[cddolphin]

1 minute ago, areksoo said:

I wonder though being the best QB in the league and knowing the cap keeps increasing, could he demand something like 17.9% of the salary cap each year rather than a set amount? 

Agents/players are mostly risk-averse with contracts, which is why guaranteed money is the most important aspect of any contract, and while the cap has gone up every year, the rate of increase has actually slowed down. A guy like Rodgers who is on the tail end of his contract may benefit from this type of deal, but there may well be a point where the cap stops increasing yearly.

[TXsteeler]

5 minutes ago, cddolphin said:

To add to this -

Year: Average Top 10 QB Salary (% of that year's cap)

2018: $25.47m (14.4%)
2017: $23.71m (14.2%)
2016: $24.46m (15.8%)
2015: $20.86m (14.6%)
2014: $19.19m (14.4%)
2013: $18.46m (12.4%)
2012: $16.15m (13.4%)
2011: $14.59m (12.1%)

 

2011 was the last year the data was available on Spotrac.

Looks like relative QB salaries haven't moved much over the past 5 years or so, and only went up a couple percentage points overall during this time frame.

And that jump lines up perfectly with the salary cap jump in 2014. The salary cap jumped and the first people to get paid were the most important players on the team, and over that period half those guys were basically the future HOFers and the other half were the great young QBs pushing the market value.

[TXsteeler]

17 minutes ago, areksoo said:

I wonder though being the best QB in the league and knowing the cap keeps increasing, could he demand something like 17.9% of the salary cap each year rather than a set amount? 

I don't see any reason why they couldn't do that but I don't think the team would want to let him because that would mean he would get like a $2M to $3M raise every year, they would be better off just offering him even more money on average vs the first year's cap.

[Broncofan]

Most players don't even realize that retiring jeopardizes their signing bonus.  I don't know that they'll ever embrace the concept of a percentage.  They want to see cash in hand.   

[TXsteeler]

20 minutes ago, areksoo said:

So going by those numbers, assuming Rodgers will still demand 17.9% of the salary cap and projecting next year's cap (just a simple linear projection from 2011), then Rodgers should get somewhere around $33 million per year.  If he waits until 2020 when he becomes a FA, then it's $34.8 million.

This is also why I wouldnt sign Rodgers to a new contract. I would just let his current one run out and franchise him 2 times.

The first year QB franchise tag is only like 23 million according to http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/03/05/2018-franchise-tag-values-set-with-release-of-cap-number/.

So even though it will increase a bunch by 2020, it won't be anywhere near what they would pay him instead.

He is due a cap hit of $20.5M and then $21M over the next two years, then the franchise tags would be what, maybe like $28M and then $34M? (I'm completely guessing on the math I have no idea.)

So they can pay him essentially $100M over 4 years or they can sign him to an extension now and pay him like $165M over 5.

For a 34 year old guy coming off a season ending injury, and his second broken collarbone, is it really worth it to give him so much extra money a year just so you can have him for one more year while he is 38? And then have the possibility of signing him again for a bunch of money as he goes into his late 30s early 40s if he's even still around?