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AlNFL19

2019 NFL Draft - Quarterbacks

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I've looked at 5 quarterbacks thus far, none of whom have impressed a ton, but Kyler is my QB1 by a decent margin.

1. Kyler Murray, 4JR, Oklahoma - 6.3 (Rounds 1-3) - Murray is capable of reading the field but isn't great at it yet. He's pretty accurate and comfortable in the pocket but often fails to lead receivers and obviously bails too soon. His grade is largely thanks to good scores with release quickness, arm strength, and obviously mobility - he's a huge threat to run. Red flags are obvious with Murray, though: 5'9", 195 lbs, baseball, running too much, and Oklahoma's scheme.

2. Dwayne Haskins, 3SO, Ohio State - 5.45 (Rounds 2-5) - Of the four I've seen, Haskins is the best decision-maker and the most accurate. However, he has problems in both regards. If his first couple reads aren't there, he won't do too well, and is deep ball is shaky at times. Haskins can really zip it sometimes, but his footwork isn't great and that means his deep passes can die on him. If you want to run a spread scheme with any of these four quarterbacks that requires some difficult reads, Haskins is your best shot.

3. Will Grier, 5SR, West Virginia - 5.35 (Rounds 2-5) - Grier understands what he sees before the snap and determines what would be best to do pretty well, but his post-snap reads pale in comparison and are not a strength. His accurate is generally pretty solid but downfield it can be hit-or-miss. He can put some zip on the ball when he's in a clean pocket and gets through his footwork well, but other times the ball will die on him. Grier uses a high angle on his deep passes that gives away his intent really early and makes his throws float too high, but sometimes he flashes incredible deep ball accuracy, touch, and velocity. If you can find a way to extrapolate that potential, Grier is a Day One pick. Teams that use a lot of gimmicks and motions could get the most out of Grier, who is heavily reliant on what he sees before the snap.

4. Drew Lock, 4SR, Missouri - 5.3 (Rounds 2-5) - Lock has some pretty obvious similarities to Josh Allen. He has trouble with decision-making and accuracy, has an elite-level arm, and wasn't a winner in college. The big issue, to me, with Lock is that he falls short of the franchise quarterback thresholds for decision-making, accuracy, and pocket awareness, which are in my view some of the most important, if not the most important, traits for a quarterback. He has a snappy release most of the time and impressed at the Senior Bowl, but his tape didn't scream Round 1 to me.

5. Ryan Finley, 6SR, N.C. State - 4.2 (Rounds 6-7) - Finley has a backup ceiling to me. His decision-making isn't very good, in fact it's maybe the worst of these five, and he's a sixth-year senior. That's bad. His accuracy suffers down the field and he didn't throw a lot of deep balls at N.C. State, probably in an effort to mask his subpar arm. He has decent mechanics but there isn't a ton to like. Another thing that scares me is that he's 6'3", 185 lbs - ten pounds lighter than Kyler Murray. 

 

I've also been looking at some thresholds for certain traits that I think quarterbacks need to hit to be successful. I looked at scouting reports from who I think are the NFL's 17 guys that really qualify as franchise quarterbacks (Brady, Brees, Mahomes, Wilson, Ryan, Rodgers, Rivers, Goff, Luck, Wentz, Watson, Roethlisberger, Newton, Manning, Stafford, Garoppolo, and Mayfield) and developed these thresholds from them:

- Decision-Making should be above-average (76% of the 17 hit this threshold)

- Accuracy should be at least average but average is workable (100% of the 17)

- Leadership skills should be above-average (94% of the 17)

- Mobility should be average (71% of the 17)

- Pocket Awareness should be above-average (71% of the 17)

- Release Quickness / Motion Quality should be above-average (76% of the 17)

Between the 17 listed above, the average number of thresholds hit was 4.88 of the 6. Patrick Mahomes was the only one to not hit 4 of them. Brees, Wilson, Luck, and Wentz hit all 6. They're obviously not perfect, but I think they're good indicators to some degree. Per my count, only Murray hit 4 thresholds (he hit the same 4 that Cam Newton hit - accuracy, leadership, mobility, and release). Haskins, Grier, and Lock hit 3, and Finley only hit 1.

Edited by AlNFL19

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What do people make of his interviews? I don't know if he's just shy infront of cameras or what, but the guy could barely communicate or answer basic questions.

Is it no big deal, or do you think he may bomb interviews at the combine and hurt his stock?

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3 minutes ago, RaidersAreOne said:

What do people make of his interviews? I don't know if he's just shy infront of cameras or what, but the guy could barely communicate or answer basic questions.

Is it no big deal, or do you think he may bomb interviews at the combine and hurt his stock?

It's not really a red flag for me.  Not everyone is a loud, abrasive personality.  He's more of the calm, cool, collected personality.

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After what I some from Baker, the Oklahoma scheme isn’t a knock to me regarding Kyler. His height worries me though.

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7 minutes ago, RaidersAreOne said:

What do people make of his interviews? I don't know if he's just shy infront of cameras or what, but the guy could barely communicate or answer basic questions.

Is it no big deal, or do you think he may bomb interviews at the combine and hurt his stock?

I think he just didn't want to say what he felt at the time, probably should have been more prepared though.

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

This solidifies him as a Day 1 QB prospect now...

I still wouldn't draft him until day 3, just because of baseball. This isn't terribly convincing. At least, not to me. He's been too inconsistent with his decisions and I'm not even talking about his play on the football field.

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5 hours ago, CWood21 said:

This solidifies him as a Day 1 QB prospect now...

Wow total game changer with him 100% committed to football, completely changes where he could be drafted.  Just on potential alone he is a 1st rounder but now any of these teams could take a go at him.

 

5 Bucs
6 Giants
7 Jaguars
10 Broncos
11 Bengals
13 Dolphins
15 Redskins
18 Vikings
30 Packers
32 Patriots

 

I would totally not mind taking him with the Vikings but doubt he even falls that far, I would take him over Cousins any day but Cousins has that damn guaranteed contract.  Obvious ones are the Giants and Jaguars, no way he goes past the Dolphins though no way.  Will be interesting what happens, even the Bucs could take a go at it, or if Kliffy boy likes him as much as he says maybe they trade Rosen and take him #1 overall.  Think the Giants would trade the #6th pick for Rosen and the Cardinals get that pick?  

 

But yeah wow totally changes the draft because now there is no what if he goes plays baseball aspect to it.  Great move by Murray really especially if that is what he wants, and yeah baseball is boring and lame so made the right choice.  

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45 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Think the Giants would trade the #6th pick for Rosen and the Cardinals get that pick?  

Interesting thought, but the NYG reporters said he's too small. Whether that's just posturing during the lying season...who knows.

"A team source told SNY's Ralph Vacchiano that Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray is "probably a little too small" for the Giants.The Giants "prefer to stick to the established measurables they have for a prototypical quarterback," Vacchiano notes"


Also, less than zero chance the Packers spend a 1st on Murray, they're praying he gets drafted ahead of pick 12 and pushes another player to them

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23 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Interesting thought, but the NYG reporters said he's too small. Whether that's just posturing during the lying season...who knows.

"A team source told SNY's Ralph Vacchiano that Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray is "probably a little too small" for the Giants.The Giants "prefer to stick to the established measurables they have for a prototypical quarterback," Vacchiano notes"


Also, less than zero chance the Packers spend a 1st on Murray, they're praying he gets drafted ahead of pick 12 and pushes another player to them

Maybe that is true, but specifically at 30 if he falls that far, which he probably will not it, would be a decent option even if it is only trade bait.  So if he is there at 30 I feel he would be gone possibly but yeah probably will not happen.  

 

I am sure some teams will find a reason not to draft him but I say again if the Cardinals like him that much, trade Rosen to the Giants for that 6th pick and maybe something else who knows.  

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6 hours ago, Chrissooner49er said:

I still wouldn't draft him until day 3, just because of baseball. This isn't terribly convincing. At least, not to me. He's been too inconsistent with his decisions and I'm not even talking about his play on the football field.

Well, the teams get to speak with him and talk to him about his plans.

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2 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Well, the teams get to speak with him and talk to him about his plans.

yet he still doesnt have to be 100% truthful.

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On 2/4/2019 at 11:43 AM, Chrissooner49er said:

When it is the biggest game in a career of 14 games, I think it means a lot. In the face of a stiff defense, he wilted.

And he sure is waffling on the baseball/football questions... Not someone I would risk a Day 1 or 2 pick for that alone.

He threw for 300 and ran for a 100 more. Wouldn't exactly anoint that is a wilting on his part. It's also not his fault that the Big 12 has no defenses in it's league. Baker Mayfield struggled against Georgia last year in the semi finals when he finally faced a defense. 

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