2019 NFL Draft - Quarterbacks

[TVScout]

 Brett Rypien is, IMHO, a slightly better version of Kevin Hogan.

[AlNFL19]

I watched some of Daniel Jones and wasn't really super impressed. Here's my rankings so far:

1. Kyler Murray (Rounds 1-3)

2. Dwayne Haskins (Rounds 2-5)

3. Will Grier (Rounds 2-5)

4. Drew Lock (Rounds 2-5)

5. Daniel Jones (Rounds 4-7)

6. Ryan Finley (Rounds 6-7)

I don't really get the hype. His release is either good or ugly, his decision-making isn't a strength, his accuracy wanes outside the numbers, he takes too many sacks because his internal clock isn't great, and his footwork wasn't great in the games I watched. He also looked bad under pressure. I also don't get the Cutcliffe thing - Jones didn't look great in the games I saw. He's got a big arm and average accuracy but I don't think he's really got a ton going for him if he doesn't clean up a lot of stuff.

[SBLIII]

4 minutes ago, AlNFL19 said:

I watched some of Daniel Jones and wasn't really super impressed. Here's my rankings so far:

1. Kyler Murray (Rounds 1-3)

2. Dwayne Haskins (Rounds 2-5)

3. Will Grier (Rounds 2-5)

4. Drew Lock (Rounds 2-5)

5. Daniel Jones (Rounds 4-7)

6. Ryan Finley (Rounds 6-7)

I don't really get the hype. His release is either good or ugly, his decision-making isn't a strength, his accuracy wanes outside the numbers, he takes too many sacks because his internal clock isn't great, and his footwork wasn't great in the games I watched. He also looked bad under pressure. I also don't get the Cutcliffe thing - Jones didn't look great in the games I saw. He's got a big arm and average accuracy but I don't think he's really got a ton going for him if he doesn't clean up a lot of stuff.

agreed about Daniel Jones. He screams backup. Tough, gritty. Will stay in the league for a decade but doesn't have starter potential, to me at least. If some team drafts him round 1 they will make a big mistake.

[BayRaider]

I have a feeling Finley will fall to the Pats 3rd Rounder and he comes the next Brady (not nearly as accomplished as Brady but what I mean by this is a solid starter that’s stolen outside the first two rounds). Watch the guy play, extremely smart and makes his progression better than some current NFL starters. Improvises well and extremely calm and composed under pressure. Great accuracy. Only slightly above average arm strength though.  Scouts hate him cause his arm is Alex Smith level (I’d rank it above that, some of his deep throws are rather impressive) and  he’s not athletic. 

[AlNFL19]

3 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

I have a feeling Finley will fall to the Pats 3rd Rounder and he comes the next Brady (not nearly as accomplished as Brady but what I mean by this is a solid starter that’s stolen outside the first two rounds). Watch the guy play, extremely smart and makes his progression better than some current NFL starters. Improvises well and extremely calm and composed under pressure. Great accuracy. Only slightly above average arm strength though.  Scouts hate him cause his arm is Alex Smith level (I’d rank it above that, some of his deep throws are rather impressive) and  he’s not athletic. 

Hmm. That's not what I saw watching Finley. 

But I mean, as a Pats fan, if you're right, I would not be upset.

[HoboRocket]

11 hours ago, BayRaider said:

 

I would not be shocked to see none of these QBs ever become a Top 15 QB though. Pretty bad QB class overall. However it’s a good class to gamble with a Mid 2nd-Mid 3rd Rounder, lot of value there. 

And likewise, I wouldn't be shocked to see a bunch become quality starters in the 15-5 range. 

Haskins is raw and has streaks where it's just not clicking. Lock doesn't have a commanding personality, but I think he's one of the safest options for a 1 who can become a good starter. Jones looks overhyped, but he has the body of a starter and flashes great acumen. Just needs to work on consistency, and that's where he's more of a Tannehill. Finley reminds me of Alex Smith, Brian Hoyer, or Tom Brady. Kind of a mix of the three. If he can show some wow leadership and more clutch ability, I could see him becoming a top-10. Grier just needs to figure out how to keep the ball from dying on him at times. Improve the arm strength and throw on the run ability, and then I'll buy the hype. Tyree Jackson has stud potential IMHO. He needs to improve decision-making and that's really 90% of what I see with him. Stidham has been clutch before, and will make some wow throws, but then there are times where he's just overwhelmed. Get more level headed. He has great athleticism, though. Rypien is Matt Moore mixed with Kirk Cousins. He could start in a pinch, and maybe earn an extended look with potential in the 12 to top-18 QB range. Did I miss someone?

 

They're all works in progress. But so were Goff, Watson, Mahomes, and Mayfield. Mayfield fixed his happy feet and that improved his accuracy. Also has stayed out of trouble. Goff has been picking up on the mental aspect of the game, but has been a mixed bag in the clutch. Crazy good when it's on the line at times, or a garbage-fire. No in-between. Watson has improved his deep-ball accuracy a bit and has improved his decision-making. Mahomes hasn't improved so much with the decision-making, but his playmaking has outweighed that flaw.

It's all just about the coaches getting the most out of them and developing them.

 

[HoboRocket]

Oh, yeah, forgot Murray. I don't see too many fixable problems with him, it's all just about frame limitations and potentially nonexistent dedication concerns. 

[BleedTheClock]

3 hours ago, AlNFL19 said:

he takes too many sacks because his internal clock isn't great

Or because he had one of the worst OL's in CFB last year. Daniel Jones was hit more than any other QB I watched last season. His OL sucks and routinely gave up pressure. Like, unblocked pressures right up the middle. All the time. Their OL was atrocious as were their skill position players. Daniel Jones was a 1-man show and had zero help. His situation was worse than Josh Allen's last year, which is saying something.

[jrry32]

I'll go ahead and post my QB rankings (I included all of the ones I've evaluated thus far). I'll also offer what round I'd take them in, a comparison, a brief explanation, and the team where he fits best:

1. Kyler Murray - Top 5

Comparison: Michael Vick

Summary: He doesn't fit everywhere. He needs to find the right system and coach. But if you unleash this kid and let him play his game, he's a special playmaker. Still polishing the mental and technical sides of the game as a passer, but he has an unreal combination of athleticism and arm talent with a compact release and great footwork.

Best Fit: Arizona Cardinals (I could have also offered up the Eagles here due to Pederson's willingness to change his offense to play to his QB's strengths, but the Eagles aren't in the market for a QB. I think Kingsbury is willing to play the wide open system that will allow Murray to make full use of all his gifts.)

2. Dwayne Haskins - Top 10

Comparison: Matt Stafford

Summary: Haskins is more of a prototypical pocket passer. The ball jumps out of his hand, he makes a lot of wow throws, he's a good enough athlete to need to be respected, and he flashes the mental side of the game. He's still polishing the mental and technical aspects as he gains experience, and he has had some issues when hit early. He's also not an elusive QB in the pocket despite being a solid athlete.

Best Fit: New York Giants (The Giants OL started to pull together during the second half of the year. If the Giants can make another upgrade or two, they'll have a good unit. With their weapons and Shurmur's ability to cater to rhythm throwers, I see Haskins being a really good fit here.)

3. Drew Lock - Top 20

Comparison: Derek Carr

Summary: Lock is the prototype in terms of size, arm, and athleticism. When he has a clean pocket, he looks beautiful standing back and slinging. Still, as gifted as he is as a thrower and athlete, I found the other parts of his game to be fairly pedestrian. IMO, he's a guy who will always look capable of taking that next step to greatness but never actually do it because something is just missing.

Best Fit: Jacksonville Jaguars (I think he's a great fit in DeFilippo's offense. It's a fairly wide open system that schemes guys open and uses a lot of concepts that opens up clean windows. That suits Lock well.)

4. Daniel Jones - First Round

Comparison: Alex Smith

Summary: Jones is a smart kid who moves smoothly through his progressions, throws with anticipation, doesn't lock onto WRs, and generally makes smart decisions. He's also a good athlete with good size and some elusiveness in the pocket. However, Jones has an average all around arm (both arm strength and accuracy), he's fairly risk averse as a passer, takes unnecessary sacks, and has a lot of passes batted down at the LOS (possibly because he's a ball patter).

Best Fit: Washington Redskins (With the injury to Alex Smith, the Redskins need a QB. Jones makes a lot of sense for a team like Washington that runs a system that fits his game well and needs a pro ready QB to step onto a team that looked like a potential playoff contender before Smith's injury.)

5. Easton Stick - Third Round

Comparison: Rich Gannon

Summary: Let me clarify that I'm not guaranteeing he'll land in the perfect situation like Gannon did that will allow him to go from borderline starter to MVP. Instead, I see a kid who offers a lot of what Gannon did as a younger QB. He's coming from a small school, is a stellar athlete for the position, is extremely elusive in the pocket, can rip off huge chunks when you give him a lane, moves through progressions seamlessly, is a smart QB capable of handling a lot at the LOS, is tough as nails, and basically nails everything from the intangible standpoint. However, he's also a streaky passer and decision maker at this point in time with middling arm strength. But there's something about him that just gives me the gut feeling that he'll surprise a lot of people at the NFL level. He's a winner.

Best Fit: Los Angeles Rams (Stick has arguably the best play-action fake in this Draft, is comfortable running his offense at the LOS, and he looks at his best when operating off of play-action with a strong running game behind him. The Rams need a backup. Stick seems like the perfect kid to step into that role.)

6. Will Grier - Third Round

Comparison: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Summary: Grier is the quintessential gunslinger with an average arm. He's smallish with an average arm, struggles when pressured, and makes some really bad decisions. However, when he's on and being protected, he's capable of making some absolutely magical throws into tight windows, he's very elusive in the pocket, and he displays outstanding anticipation. Nevertheless, he's overly aggressive and does a poor job at coming off his deeper reads and finding his checkdown. He also needs to learn to take off and grab easy yardage when he has a seam. He's an overaggressive rhythm passer.

Best Fit: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (It would be smart for the Bucs to consider life after Winston in case they decide not to extend him. Grier's aggressive, arrogant style is a good fit for Bruce Arians and his offensive system.)

7. Brett Rypien - Third Round

Comparison: Colt McCoy

Summary: Rypien is a smart, experienced passer with a quick release and good accuracy. He is smooth through his progressions, reads the entire field, and sees the field as well as anybody in this class. Where Rypien comes up short is the physical talent. He is a smaller QB with a middling arm and average mobility. Rypien also has made some bad decisions under pressure, but he did improve a lot in that respect as a senior. Rypien also needs to do a better job of protecting the football when he takes sacks.

Best Fit: New England Patriots (I thought about comparing Rypien to Jimmy G, but he doesn't have the same sort of physical tools. Still, Rypien's intelligence, field vision, quick release, and accuracy would play well in New England's system. That offense is just a phenomenal fit for his skill-set.)

8. Jordan Ta'amu - Fourth Round

Comparison: Jason Campbell

Summary: Ta'amu is an athletic QB with clean mechanics, a strong arm, and good overall accuracy. He's a great fit as a developmental QB behind an established starter. The big problem with Ta'amu is that he comes from a simplistic system that didn't ask much of him mentally. At this stage, he doesn't see the field particularly well, hasn't flashed much in terms of going through complex progressions or reading the entire field, and has a tendency to look to scramble when given time in the pocket instead of being patient and hanging in. I see him as like Jason Campbell because he has the entire tool-set as a passer, but I'm just not sure the mental game will ever catch up with the rest of his talent.

Best Fit: Green Bay Packers (Jordan isn't quite Rodgers gifted, but he has some similarities in terms of gifts and play style. Learning behind Rodgers might give him the opportunity to smooth out the mental aspects of his game, and playing in a Shanahan WCO variant seems like a good fit for him.)

9. Jarrett Stidham - Fourth Round

Comparison: Blaine Gabbert

Summary: When you watch Stidham when he's protected, he looks like a prototypical first round QB. He has plenty of arm strength, he throws with accuracy and anticipation, and he's a very athletic QB. However, Stidham turns into a complete disaster when pressured. He's easily rattled, he makes poor decisions, his lower body mechanics go to crap, and he rushes throws. He also leaves the pocket too early, tends to turn his back to his receivers, and doesn't maneuver the pocket well. However, the biggest knock for me is hearing that Stidham's teammates don't like him because he's arrogant and cares more about his personal success than team success.

Best Fit: New Orleans Saints (There's no denying that Stidham is a stellar ball distributor when protected. The Saints have tended to have good OLs over the years, and Payton is a good QB teacher. Hopefully, learning from Brees will show Stidham how to be a better teammate.)

10. Clayton Thorson - Fifth Round

Comparison: Drew Stanton

Summary: I can totally understand why Thorson received some first round hype in 2017. He's a big guy with a strong arm who showed the ability to work quickly through progressions in a pro style scheme, is tough as nails when being pressured, moves well, sees the field well, and maneuvers the pocket effectively. However, Thorson's accuracy is bad, his deep ball is terrible, he doesn't feel pressure well, and I didn't see much anticipation when I watched him.

Best Fit: Oakland Raiders (I see Thorson fitting best in a WCO with an emphasis on the quick-passing game. Thorson's deep ball is just too inaccurate to fit in a system that values deep shots. His intelligence, field vision, progressions, and athleticism should fit well in Gruden's system. The question is if he'll ever be accurate enough to be anything more than a backup.)

11. Tyree Jackson - Seventh Round

Comparison: John Skelton

Summary: People are going to want Jackson to be better than he is because he's 6'7" 240 with a strong arm and good athleticism. That all said, Jackson has a slow, methodical release, doesn't see the field especially well, and isn't particularly accurate. He's a pure lottery ticket. 

Best Fit: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (If Arians thinks Winston is his guy and doesn't want to draft a QB on Day 1 or 2, this makes sense. Arians likes big, strong-armed passers. Jackson has the sort of aggressiveness that Arians likes in a QB.)

[AlNFL19]

I watched some more Dwayne Haskins and bumped him up to a grade of Rounds 1-3 like Murray.

[AlNFL19]

Kyler Murray might have some issues with decision-making and all, but I think his processing should get better. I mean, we know he's capable of processing a lot of information quickly because he was a first-round-pick in the MLB, and hitting takes a ton of processing speed.

[SBLIII]

22 hours ago, AlNFL19 said:

Kyler Murray might have some issues with decision-making and all, but I think his processing should get better. I mean, we know he's capable of processing a lot of information quickly because he was a first-round-pick in the MLB, and hitting takes a ton of processing speed.

Murray is a dual-threat QB who is very accurate and has a good arm. I think he is an elite QB prospect.

[jetjuice]

On 2/19/2019 at 5:22 PM, jrry32 said:

I'll go ahead and post my QB rankings (I included all of the ones I've evaluated thus far). I'll also offer what round I'd take them in, a comparison, a brief explanation, and the team where he fits best:

1. Kyler Murray - Top 5

Comparison: Michael Vick

Summary: He doesn't fit everywhere. He needs to find the right system and coach. But if you unleash this kid and let him play his game, he's a special playmaker. Still polishing the mental and technical sides of the game as a passer, but he has an unreal combination of athleticism and arm talent with a compact release and great footwork.

Best Fit: Arizona Cardinals (I could have also offered up the Eagles here due to Pederson's willingness to change his offense to play to his QB's strengths, but the Eagles aren't in the market for a QB. I think Kingsbury is willing to play the wide open system that will allow Murray to make full use of all his gifts.)

2. Dwayne Haskins - Top 10

Comparison: Matt Stafford

Summary: Haskins is more of a prototypical pocket passer. The ball jumps out of his hand, he makes a lot of wow throws, he's a good enough athlete to need to be respected, and he flashes the mental side of the game. He's still polishing the mental and technical aspects as he gains experience, and he has had some issues when hit early. He's also not an elusive QB in the pocket despite being a solid athlete.

Best Fit: New York Giants (The Giants OL started to pull together during the second half of the year. If the Giants can make another upgrade or two, they'll have a good unit. With their weapons and Shurmur's ability to cater to rhythm throwers, I see Haskins being a really good fit here.)

3. Drew Lock - Top 20

Comparison: Derek Carr

Summary: Lock is the prototype in terms of size, arm, and athleticism. When he has a clean pocket, he looks beautiful standing back and slinging. Still, as gifted as he is as a thrower and athlete, I found the other parts of his game to be fairly pedestrian. IMO, he's a guy who will always look capable of taking that next step to greatness but never actually do it because something is just missing.

Best Fit: Jacksonville Jaguars (I think he's a great fit in DeFilippo's offense. It's a fairly wide open system that schemes guys open and uses a lot of concepts that opens up clean windows. That suits Lock well.)

4. Daniel Jones - First Round

Comparison: Alex Smith

Summary: Jones is a smart kid who moves smoothly through his progressions, throws with anticipation, doesn't lock onto WRs, and generally makes smart decisions. He's also a good athlete with good size and some elusiveness in the pocket. However, Jones has an average all around arm (both arm strength and accuracy), he's fairly risk averse as a passer, takes unnecessary sacks, and has a lot of passes batted down at the LOS (possibly because he's a ball patter).

Best Fit: Washington Redskins (With the injury to Alex Smith, the Redskins need a QB. Jones makes a lot of sense for a team like Washington that runs a system that fits his game well and needs a pro ready QB to step onto a team that looked like a potential playoff contender before Smith's injury.)

5. Easton Stick - Third Round

Comparison: Rich Gannon

Summary: Let me clarify that I'm not guaranteeing he'll land in the perfect situation like Gannon did that will allow him to go from borderline starter to MVP. Instead, I see a kid who offers a lot of what Gannon did as a younger QB. He's coming from a small school, is a stellar athlete for the position, is extremely elusive in the pocket, can rip off huge chunks when you give him a lane, moves through progressions seamlessly, is a smart QB capable of handling a lot at the LOS, is tough as nails, and basically nails everything from the intangible standpoint. However, he's also a streaky passer and decision maker at this point in time with middling arm strength. But there's something about him that just gives me the gut feeling that he'll surprise a lot of people at the NFL level. He's a winner.

Best Fit: Los Angeles Rams (Stick has arguably the best play-action fake in this Draft, is comfortable running his offense at the LOS, and he looks at his best when operating off of play-action with a strong running game behind him. The Rams need a backup. Stick seems like the perfect kid to step into that role.)

6. Will Grier - Third Round

Comparison: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Summary: Grier is the quintessential gunslinger with an average arm. He's smallish with an average arm, struggles when pressured, and makes some really bad decisions. However, when he's on and being protected, he's capable of making some absolutely magical throws into tight windows, he's very elusive in the pocket, and he displays outstanding anticipation. Nevertheless, he's overly aggressive and does a poor job at coming off his deeper reads and finding his checkdown. He also needs to learn to take off and grab easy yardage when he has a seam. He's an overaggressive rhythm passer.

Best Fit: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (It would be smart for the Bucs to consider life after Winston in case they decide not to extend him. Grier's aggressive, arrogant style is a good fit for Bruce Arians and his offensive system.)

7. Brett Rypien - Third Round

Comparison: Colt McCoy

Summary: Rypien is a smart, experienced passer with a quick release and good accuracy. He is smooth through his progressions, reads the entire field, and sees the field as well as anybody in this class. Where Rypien comes up short is the physical talent. He is a smaller QB with a middling arm and average mobility. Rypien also has made some bad decisions under pressure, but he did improve a lot in that respect as a senior. Rypien also needs to do a better job of protecting the football when he takes sacks.

Best Fit: New England Patriots (I thought about comparing Rypien to Jimmy G, but he doesn't have the same sort of physical tools. Still, Rypien's intelligence, field vision, quick release, and accuracy would play well in New England's system. That offense is just a phenomenal fit for his skill-set.)

8. Jordan Ta'amu - Fourth Round

Comparison: Jason Campbell

Summary: Ta'amu is an athletic QB with clean mechanics, a strong arm, and good overall accuracy. He's a great fit as a developmental QB behind an established starter. The big problem with Ta'amu is that he comes from a simplistic system that didn't ask much of him mentally. At this stage, he doesn't see the field particularly well, hasn't flashed much in terms of going through complex progressions or reading the entire field, and has a tendency to look to scramble when given time in the pocket instead of being patient and hanging in. I see him as like Jason Campbell because he has the entire tool-set as a passer, but I'm just not sure the mental game will ever catch up with the rest of his talent.

Best Fit: Green Bay Packers (Jordan isn't quite Rodgers gifted, but he has some similarities in terms of gifts and play style. Learning behind Rodgers might give him the opportunity to smooth out the mental aspects of his game, and playing in a Shanahan WCO variant seems like a good fit for him.)

9. Jarrett Stidham - Fourth Round

Comparison: Blaine Gabbert

Summary: When you watch Stidham when he's protected, he looks like a prototypical first round QB. He has plenty of arm strength, he throws with accuracy and anticipation, and he's a very athletic QB. However, Stidham turns into a complete disaster when pressured. He's easily rattled, he makes poor decisions, his lower body mechanics go to crap, and he rushes throws. He also leaves the pocket too early, tends to turn his back to his receivers, and doesn't maneuver the pocket well. However, the biggest knock for me is hearing that Stidham's teammates don't like him because he's arrogant and cares more about his personal success than team success.

Best Fit: New Orleans Saints (There's no denying that Stidham is a stellar ball distributor when protected. The Saints have tended to have good OLs over the years, and Payton is a good QB teacher. Hopefully, learning from Brees will show Stidham how to be a better teammate.)

10. Clayton Thorson - Fifth Round

Comparison: Drew Stanton

Summary: I can totally understand why Thorson received some first round hype in 2017. He's a big guy with a strong arm who showed the ability to work quickly through progressions in a pro style scheme, is tough as nails when being pressured, moves well, sees the field well, and maneuvers the pocket effectively. However, Thorson's accuracy is bad, his deep ball is terrible, he doesn't feel pressure well, and I didn't see much anticipation when I watched him.

Best Fit: Oakland Raiders (I see Thorson fitting best in a WCO with an emphasis on the quick-passing game. Thorson's deep ball is just too inaccurate to fit in a system that values deep shots. His intelligence, field vision, progressions, and athleticism should fit well in Gruden's system. The question is if he'll ever be accurate enough to be anything more than a backup.)

11. Tyree Jackson - Seventh Round

Comparison: John Skelton

Summary: People are going to want Jackson to be better than he is because he's 6'7" 240 with a strong arm and good athleticism. That all said, Jackson has a slow, methodical release, doesn't see the field especially well, and isn't particularly accurate. He's a pure lottery ticket. 

Best Fit: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (If Arians thinks Winston is his guy and doesn't want to draft a QB on Day 1 or 2, this makes sense. Arians likes big, strong-armed passers. Jackson has the sort of aggressiveness that Arians likes in a QB.)

Spot on analysis.

[VanS]

On 2/19/2019 at 4:22 PM, jrry32 said:

I'll go ahead and post my QB rankings (I included all of the ones I've evaluated thus far). I'll also offer what round I'd take them in, a comparison, a brief explanation, and the team where he fits best:

1. Kyler Murray - Top 5

Comparison: Michael Vick

Summary: He doesn't fit everywhere. He needs to find the right system and coach. But if you unleash this kid and let him play his game, he's a special playmaker. Still polishing the mental and technical sides of the game as a passer, but he has an unreal combination of athleticism and arm talent with a compact release and great footwork.

Best Fit: Arizona Cardinals (I could have also offered up the Eagles here due to Pederson's willingness to change his offense to play to his QB's strengths, but the Eagles aren't in the market for a QB. I think Kingsbury is willing to play the wide open system that will allow Murray to make full use of all his gifts.)

2. Dwayne Haskins - Top 10

Comparison: Matt Stafford

Summary: Haskins is more of a prototypical pocket passer. The ball jumps out of his hand, he makes a lot of wow throws, he's a good enough athlete to need to be respected, and he flashes the mental side of the game. He's still polishing the mental and technical aspects as he gains experience, and he has had some issues when hit early. He's also not an elusive QB in the pocket despite being a solid athlete.

Best Fit: New York Giants (The Giants OL started to pull together during the second half of the year. If the Giants can make another upgrade or two, they'll have a good unit. With their weapons and Shurmur's ability to cater to rhythm throwers, I see Haskins being a really good fit here.)

3. Drew Lock - Top 20

Comparison: Derek Carr

Summary: Lock is the prototype in terms of size, arm, and athleticism. When he has a clean pocket, he looks beautiful standing back and slinging. Still, as gifted as he is as a thrower and athlete, I found the other parts of his game to be fairly pedestrian. IMO, he's a guy who will always look capable of taking that next step to greatness but never actually do it because something is just missing.

Best Fit: Jacksonville Jaguars (I think he's a great fit in DeFilippo's offense. It's a fairly wide open system that schemes guys open and uses a lot of concepts that opens up clean windows. That suits Lock well.)

4. Daniel Jones - First Round

Comparison: Alex Smith

Summary: Jones is a smart kid who moves smoothly through his progressions, throws with anticipation, doesn't lock onto WRs, and generally makes smart decisions. He's also a good athlete with good size and some elusiveness in the pocket. However, Jones has an average all around arm (both arm strength and accuracy), he's fairly risk averse as a passer, takes unnecessary sacks, and has a lot of passes batted down at the LOS (possibly because he's a ball patter).

Best Fit: Washington Redskins (With the injury to Alex Smith, the Redskins need a QB. Jones makes a lot of sense for a team like Washington that runs a system that fits his game well and needs a pro ready QB to step onto a team that looked like a potential playoff contender before Smith's injury.)

5. Easton Stick - Third Round

Comparison: Rich Gannon

Summary: Let me clarify that I'm not guaranteeing he'll land in the perfect situation like Gannon did that will allow him to go from borderline starter to MVP. Instead, I see a kid who offers a lot of what Gannon did as a younger QB. He's coming from a small school, is a stellar athlete for the position, is extremely elusive in the pocket, can rip off huge chunks when you give him a lane, moves through progressions seamlessly, is a smart QB capable of handling a lot at the LOS, is tough as nails, and basically nails everything from the intangible standpoint. However, he's also a streaky passer and decision maker at this point in time with middling arm strength. But there's something about him that just gives me the gut feeling that he'll surprise a lot of people at the NFL level. He's a winner.

Best Fit: Los Angeles Rams (Stick has arguably the best play-action fake in this Draft, is comfortable running his offense at the LOS, and he looks at his best when operating off of play-action with a strong running game behind him. The Rams need a backup. Stick seems like the perfect kid to step into that role.)

6. Will Grier - Third Round

Comparison: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Summary: Grier is the quintessential gunslinger with an average arm. He's smallish with an average arm, struggles when pressured, and makes some really bad decisions. However, when he's on and being protected, he's capable of making some absolutely magical throws into tight windows, he's very elusive in the pocket, and he displays outstanding anticipation. Nevertheless, he's overly aggressive and does a poor job at coming off his deeper reads and finding his checkdown. He also needs to learn to take off and grab easy yardage when he has a seam. He's an overaggressive rhythm passer.

Best Fit: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (It would be smart for the Bucs to consider life after Winston in case they decide not to extend him. Grier's aggressive, arrogant style is a good fit for Bruce Arians and his offensive system.)

7. Brett Rypien - Third Round

Comparison: Colt McCoy

Summary: Rypien is a smart, experienced passer with a quick release and good accuracy. He is smooth through his progressions, reads the entire field, and sees the field as well as anybody in this class. Where Rypien comes up short is the physical talent. He is a smaller QB with a middling arm and average mobility. Rypien also has made some bad decisions under pressure, but he did improve a lot in that respect as a senior. Rypien also needs to do a better job of protecting the football when he takes sacks.

Best Fit: New England Patriots (I thought about comparing Rypien to Jimmy G, but he doesn't have the same sort of physical tools. Still, Rypien's intelligence, field vision, quick release, and accuracy would play well in New England's system. That offense is just a phenomenal fit for his skill-set.)

8. Jordan Ta'amu - Fourth Round

Comparison: Jason Campbell

Summary: Ta'amu is an athletic QB with clean mechanics, a strong arm, and good overall accuracy. He's a great fit as a developmental QB behind an established starter. The big problem with Ta'amu is that he comes from a simplistic system that didn't ask much of him mentally. At this stage, he doesn't see the field particularly well, hasn't flashed much in terms of going through complex progressions or reading the entire field, and has a tendency to look to scramble when given time in the pocket instead of being patient and hanging in. I see him as like Jason Campbell because he has the entire tool-set as a passer, but I'm just not sure the mental game will ever catch up with the rest of his talent.

Best Fit: Green Bay Packers (Jordan isn't quite Rodgers gifted, but he has some similarities in terms of gifts and play style. Learning behind Rodgers might give him the opportunity to smooth out the mental aspects of his game, and playing in a Shanahan WCO variant seems like a good fit for him.)

9. Jarrett Stidham - Fourth Round

Comparison: Blaine Gabbert

Summary: When you watch Stidham when he's protected, he looks like a prototypical first round QB. He has plenty of arm strength, he throws with accuracy and anticipation, and he's a very athletic QB. However, Stidham turns into a complete disaster when pressured. He's easily rattled, he makes poor decisions, his lower body mechanics go to crap, and he rushes throws. He also leaves the pocket too early, tends to turn his back to his receivers, and doesn't maneuver the pocket well. However, the biggest knock for me is hearing that Stidham's teammates don't like him because he's arrogant and cares more about his personal success than team success.

Best Fit: New Orleans Saints (There's no denying that Stidham is a stellar ball distributor when protected. The Saints have tended to have good OLs over the years, and Payton is a good QB teacher. Hopefully, learning from Brees will show Stidham how to be a better teammate.)

10. Clayton Thorson - Fifth Round

Comparison: Drew Stanton

Summary: I can totally understand why Thorson received some first round hype in 2017. He's a big guy with a strong arm who showed the ability to work quickly through progressions in a pro style scheme, is tough as nails when being pressured, moves well, sees the field well, and maneuvers the pocket effectively. However, Thorson's accuracy is bad, his deep ball is terrible, he doesn't feel pressure well, and I didn't see much anticipation when I watched him.

Best Fit: Oakland Raiders (I see Thorson fitting best in a WCO with an emphasis on the quick-passing game. Thorson's deep ball is just too inaccurate to fit in a system that values deep shots. His intelligence, field vision, progressions, and athleticism should fit well in Gruden's system. The question is if he'll ever be accurate enough to be anything more than a backup.)

11. Tyree Jackson - Seventh Round

Comparison: John Skelton

Summary: People are going to want Jackson to be better than he is because he's 6'7" 240 with a strong arm and good athleticism. That all said, Jackson has a slow, methodical release, doesn't see the field especially well, and isn't particularly accurate. He's a pure lottery ticket. 

Best Fit: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (If Arians thinks Winston is his guy and doesn't want to draft a QB on Day 1 or 2, this makes sense. Arians likes big, strong-armed passers. Jackson has the sort of aggressiveness that Arians likes in a QB.)

What do you think of Trace McSorely?

I like him a lot more than most of the guys on your list.  He reminds me of former Bears Super Bowl winning QB Jim McMahon.  He might not be the prototypical QB but he will find ways to win.  

Trace McSorely = most underrated QB in the 2019 NFL Draft

[jebrick]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nfl-is-drafting-quarterbacks-all-wrong/

 

This is a very interesting article on evaluating QBs for NFL success

 

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No position in professional sports is more important or more misunderstood than the quarterback. NFL scouts, coaches and general managers — the world’s foremost experts on football player evaluation — have been notoriously terrible at separating good QB prospects from the bad through the years. No franchise or GM has shown the ability to beat the draft over time, and economists Cade Massey and Richard Thaler have convincingly shown that the league’s lack of consistent draft success is likely due to overconfidence rather than an efficient market. Throw in the fact that young QBs are sometimes placed in schemes that fail to take advantage of their skills,1 that red flags regarding character go unidentified or ignored2 and that prospects often lack stable coaching environments, and there is no shortage of explanations for the recurring evaluation failures.

 

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Like the rest of the league, practitioners of analytics have a pretty poor track record at predicting QB success. It wasn’t just Browns fans who were high on Johnny Manziel — many predictive performance metrics liked him as well. If some of the world’s best football talent evaluators are convinced that Murray’s height is at least a minor red flag, how can we be confident that a 5-foot-10 college QB will be productive in the NFL? When it comes to the draft, deep humility is warranted. Still, there are solid reasons to be excited about Murray.

Completion percentage is the performance measurable that best translates from college to the NFL. The metric’s shortcomings — players can pad their completion percentage with short, safe passes, for instance — are well-known. But even in its raw form, it’s a useful predictive tool.

 

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Its kissing cousin in the pantheon of stats that translate from college to the pros is average depth of target: Passers who throw short (or deep) in college tend to continue that pattern in the NFL. These two metrics can be combined3 to create an expected completion percentage, which helps correct the deficiencies in raw completion percentage. If you give more credit to players who routinely complete deeper passes — and dock passers who dump off and check down more frequently — you can get a clearer picture of a player’s true accuracy and decision-making.