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Heinz D.

NFC North 2018 Thread

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11 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

This team was 4-1 when Rodgers went down but with close wins against iffy Bengals and Cowboys teams. After Rodgers got hurt they beat us, Tampa and Cleveland (in OT). Swapping out an aging Nelson for an aging Graham doesn’t move the needle a ton for me. Take Rodgers off that team and they’re a bottom 25% NFL roster IMO. Outside of QB I don’t think they have a single top 5 position group. That squad with a replacement level QB is a 5-6 win team to me. They have the most QB-centric roster in the league. 

Don't tell that to JAF

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By the way, did you guys know the Vikings forum has a Packer thread that's 42 pages long? O.o

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10 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

Do you think they've improved though? Or is it a wash (they're about the same as last year)?

I also gotta disagree about Graham--he brings a whole other dimension to that offense than Nelson would. He's not a long term solution, sure, but Rodgers needs good weapons right now...

I don’t know that Graham brings more than Nelson does. He’s just different. He doesn’t really stretch the field any more. He’s big in the red zone but so was Jordy, who had 6 TD last year in the first 5 weeks before AR got hurt. Instead of a 6’3” guy in a 6’0” DB you get a 6’6” TE on a 6’2” LB or S. Concept is the same. To me it’s a TE upgrade but a WR downgrade, at least for 2018. That’s a relative push. 

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Just now, AZBearsFan said:

I don’t know that Graham brings more than Nelson does. He’s just different. He doesn’t really stretch the field any more. He’s big in the red zone but so was Jordy, who had 6 TD last year in the first 5 weeks before AR got hurt. Instead of a 6’3” guy in a 6’0” DB you get a 6’6” TE on a 6’2” LB or S. Concept is the same. To me it’s a TE upgrade but a WR downgrade, at least for 2018. That’s a relative push. 

I just see GB at the tail end of that Rodgers title contender window. Doesn’t mean it’s closed - at 34 he’s still got at least a few Rodgers-ish seasons in him and maybe more. I just don’t think you can say the same about the rest of the squad. We talked a lot about Cobb’s trend pre-FA in here. Adams is good but I’m not sure he’s a 1. Graham is on the back 9. Matthews is on the back 9. Nick Perry is good not great. Their DBs are all kids or a well past prime Tramon Williams. Their RBs are replacement level. Their OL has health concerns every year. There’s a lot more working against Rodgers now than there ever has been, which doesn’t even go to mention his own now twice broken clavicle. 

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40 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

I just see GB at the tail end of that Rodgers title contender window. Doesn’t mean it’s closed - at 34 he’s still got at least a few Rodgers-ish seasons in him and maybe more. I just don’t think you can say the same about the rest of the squad. We talked a lot about Cobb’s trend pre-FA in here. Adams is good but I’m not sure he’s a 1. Graham is on the back 9. Matthews is on the back 9. Nick Perry is good not great. Their DBs are all kids or a well past prime Tramon Williams. Their RBs are replacement level. Their OL has health concerns every year. There’s a lot more working against Rodgers now than there ever has been, which doesn’t even go to mention his own now twice broken clavicle. 

I don't know how long Rodgers will continue to be crazy good--something tells me he's not going to enjoy Brady style longevity (and of course, we don't know how long Brady will enjoy that, either). Even given that, they're pure contenders now, for a few more years, at least. I guess where we disagree is how serious that contention will be. The real test will be if Gutekunst can continue (or begin, depending on your point of view) a roster remake while remaining in contention, and continue to contend post-Rodgers. I like the Kizer pickup, even though that's not necessarily a long term solution. Everyone knew that Kizer should have sat last year...everyone except Hue Jackson, I guess. 

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Minnesota has Hunter, Barr and Diggs all in contract years. Makes sense that they went to full blown win now mode with Cousins. This is gonna be their best shot to win a title before they have some tough decisions next offseason. 

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43 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Minnesota has Hunter, Barr and Diggs all in contract years. Makes sense that they went to full blown win now mode with Cousins. This is gonna be their best shot to win a title before they have some tough decisions next offseason. 

Yeah, it's weird. They've got a smaller window with this specific group (because of the cap), but a larger, lower probability window in general (because of Cousins). It'll be interesting to see how things shake out. 

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So is this going to be the most modern offense the Bears have run since the 1940s? Outside of one year with Gase, their offensive scheme has been ten years behind in the modern era.

Ditka and his OCs really just ran Landry's old Cowboys offense.

Ron Turner, twice. John Shoup.

Kromer/Trestman trying to do things they did in Oakland.

Mike Martz re-hashing the Rams offense ten years later.

Then you've got short-term guys like Matt Cavanaugh, Mike Tice, and Dowell Loggains, who were all in over their heads.

The exciting part is that really, win or lose, Nagy should be doing things that are in style now, not yesterday.

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7 minutes ago, IronMike84 said:

Ditka and his OCs really just ran Landry's old Cowboys offense.

Ron Turner, twice. John Shoup.

Kromer/Trestman trying to do things they did in Oakland.

Mike Martz re-hashing the Rams offense ten years later.

Then you've got short-term guys like Matt Cavanaugh, Mike Tice, and Dowell Loggains, who were all in over their heads.

What a depressing list! For fun, on the other side of the ball I'd add that Lovie was, by the end of his tenure, also a decade behind. Mel Tucker never had a time. 

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1 hour ago, IronMike84 said:

The exciting part is that really, win or lose, Nagy should be doing things that are in style now, not yesterday.

True enough.

Also, that side of the ball won't be an afterthought, or a mish-mash. Should be fun. :)

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1 hour ago, yomyyo said:

What a depressing list! For fun, on the other side of the ball I'd add that Lovie was, by the end of his tenure, also a decade behind. Mel Tucker never had a time. 

By the end of his tenure, yes. At the front end, he was the right coach with the right personnel at the right time. Lovie’s scheme coupled with the skill set that Urlacher brought from college was such a catalyst for success. 

I heard Warren Sapp say Tony Dungy did the Bucs a major disservice but not asking more out of the offense. I feel like that describes Lovie also. The year they went to the Super Bowl, the Bears has the 15th-ranked offense. The rest of the time, they were in the mid to low 20s. His inability to put a merely average offense on the field next to a championship defense absolutely cost the team a ring.

Edited by IronMike84

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47 minutes ago, IronMike84 said:

By the end of his tenure, yes. At the front end, he was the right coach with the right personnel at the right time. Lovie’s scheme coupled with the skill set that Urlacher brought from college was such a catalyst for success. 

I heard Warren Sapp say Tony Dungy did the Bucs a major disservice but not asking more out of the offense. I feel like that describes Lovie also. The year they went to the Super Bowl, the Bears has the 15th-ranked offense. The rest of the time, they were in the mid to low 20s. His inability to put a merely average offense on the field next to a championship defense absolutely cost the team a ring.

That’s why I’m so excited about this team right now. We have a chance to put a top 10 defense next to a top 10 offense on an annual basis for the next several years. 

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3 hours ago, IronMike84 said:

By the end of his tenure, yes. At the front end, he was the right coach with the right personnel at the right time. Lovie’s scheme coupled with the skill set that Urlacher brought from college was such a catalyst for success.

Lovie was absolutely current / relevant when he took charge. But, he was unwilling to adapt to a league that had figured out how to handle his defense. Coupled with the aging team and terrible drafting, the team's (hopefully now passed) malaise was all but assured. 

AZ, I agree that a bright future awaits. Having what appears to be a promising O is such a strange feeling as a Bears fan. If the D can crack the top-10, I think that earning a playoff spot isn't inconceivable. 

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5 hours ago, IronMike84 said:

So is this going to be the most modern offense the Bears have run since the 1940s? Outside of one year with Gase, their offensive scheme has been ten years behind in the modern era.

Ditka and his OCs really just ran Landry's old Cowboys offense.

Ron Turner, twice. John Shoup.

Kromer/Trestman trying to do things they did in Oakland.

Mike Martz re-hashing the Rams offense ten years later.

Then you've got short-term guys like Matt Cavanaugh, Mike Tice, and Dowell Loggains, who were all in over their heads.

The exciting part is that really, win or lose, Nagy should be doing things that are in style now, not yesterday.

Gase was nothing special and should be noted for being more average than Trestman offensively, he was as predictable at times as Loggains was under Fox. In no way was his offense current or cutting edge.

His last year he ran over 75% of the time Jay was under center, but only about 30% while in shotgun. That was pathetic. I wanted him as a HC far more than Fox, but honestly I'm not sure he would have been much better for us.

 

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