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BigD1123

What is your REALISTIC expectation for this year?

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Carr is the key. I still don't know what kind of player he is. It's going to be the most important season in his career. He goes back to looking like one of the best young QBs in the league or his career takes a nosedive.

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16 minutes ago, oakdb36 said:

Carr is the key. I still don't know what kind of player he is. It's going to be the most important season in his career. He goes back to looking like one of the best young QBs in the league or his career takes a nosedive.

Does it have to be that extreme? Career nosedive? He's a hard worker, student and has talent. At minimum he's a average 10+ year starter in this league. A nosedive would be flaming out of the league or becoming a backup. 

Regardless, I think Gruden will pull the best out in Carr and he will thrive. Let's look at the marathon here, not the sprint..... Gruden is going to be here awhile and for Carr that means the same system year over year. He will know it inside and out in time and grow in it each year.

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44 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

Does it have to be that extreme? Career nosedive? He's a hard worker, student and has talent. At minimum he's a average 10+ year starter in this league. A nosedive would be flaming out of the league or becoming a backup. 

Regardless, I think Gruden will pull the best out in Carr and he will thrive. Let's look at the marathon here, not the sprint..... Gruden is going to be here awhile and for Carr that means the same system year over year. He will know it inside and out in time and grow in it each year.

If the real Derek Carr is the one we saw last year, he's not a 10 year starter in the league.

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On ‎5‎/‎14‎/‎2018 at 10:31 PM, drfrey13 said:

I think we played well above our talent level and had a few games we could have just as easily lost that we won in 2016.  2017 our lack of coaching talent was exposed as it appeared teams easily found mismatches and we were unable to adjust.  this year I think we will see the D play better and adjust faster than the O.  We have holes but believe our O-coordinator is capable of heading some of them.  On the O side my main issue is the o-line.  We have one player that is proven and able to run what Cable and Gruden want to do and that is Hudson.  Penn KO and Gabe are not scheme fits and Penn's body is probably done.  That leaves us with the two rookies who look like scheme fits but are unproven.  Without the o-line functioning not much else will work.  I believe our 2 best o-linemen this year will be Parker and Hudson.  Also the team will have some transition pains this years and have a chance to develop if we can remain consistent with the schemes over the next 3 years.  I think we will be below .500 this year with a chance to sneak into the playoffs next year.

Pessimist!

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On ‎5‎/‎15‎/‎2018 at 4:35 PM, billking said:

16-0

Optimist.  My kinda guy.  Do I think it will happen.  No.

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3 hours ago, oakdb36 said:

If the real Derek Carr is the one we saw last year, he's not a 10 year starter in the league.

He was a average starter last year all things considered. Bad scheme, limited talent, poor defense, etc. There are worse QBs who've started a long time.

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13 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

We won 6 last year when everything that could go wrong went wrong and a mediocre at best coaching staff. Just based on coaching alone, I think last years team could win at least 2-3 more games. If we're going across positional groups, we're improved at WR, improved at LB (whitehead and johnson are complementary to each others games and are both proven commodities), improved on the DL (I'm very sold on Hurst), and edge (ditto for Key), and Safety (prefer Gilchrist at the very least to Nelson last year).

Maybe I'm optimistic, but I see a very good team this year. There's talent infused at positions where we've lacked it for years.

I have more trepidation because everyone is in a new system and getting used to new people.  I think it'll take some time to adapt and find our groove.  Nothing wrong with that.

 

Also I didn't mean 76 wins before hahaha

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6 hours ago, oakdb36 said:

If the real Derek Carr is the one we saw last year, he's not a 10 year starter in the league.

I don't think it is.  Literally no one looked comfortable in our offense last year.  Have to think it was coaching.  Superstars can overcome it, but Carr isn't that yet.  And maybe he won't ever be.

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2 hours ago, Silver&Black88 said:

I don't think it is.  Literally no one looked comfortable in our offense last year.  Have to think it was coaching.  Superstars can overcome it, but Carr isn't that yet.  And maybe he won't ever be.

Agreed.  For Carr and the O to look the way they did in 2016 with Musgrave and then do a 180 with Downing in 2017 showed a lot.  I expect Carr to get back into about that 10 range as far as best QBs in the league go.  Coaching should be much improved from last year on both sides of the ball.

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Our coaching was atrocious last year and I expect the team to play better but do not think we will see a huge improvement because a system change always slows a team down.  There are players that will produce because of the scheme changes and players that will regress.  The frustrating part is that we will have to wait a year or two to figure out what we have again.  PBS to Zone, switching to a more traditional 4-3, and I am not sure about this last one but have read that Guenther prefers a secondary that plays zone.

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20 hours ago, oakdb36 said:

If the real Derek Carr is the one we saw last year, he's not a 10 year starter in the league.

Agreed. The Derek Carr we saw last year is on par with the Andy Daltons, Ryan Tannehills of the world. 

The DC we saw the previous two years is an ascending top 10 QB. 

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I expect anywhere between 7-10 wins this season. I’m not confident on giving a specific number because honestly i have no idea. Lots of ifs going around, “if” Gruden can get this offense fixed it’ll look good. I mean none of us know what his new look offense will be if it’ll be new at all. It could be great or it could be BB2.0. “If” the rookies contribute they could be good or the could be bad. Potential should be the name of this draft with few sure things. Also “if” guenther can be a good DC the Raiders could have an average defense. Big question is how much of CINs defense can be attributed to him and not Lewis? 

 

We will see come September we will see. If nothing else it will be interesting. 

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I've been pretty clear I think this team is closer to the 2016 vintage than the 2017 in terms of real talent level and that the difference was coaching, scheming and perhaps a little good fortune. I don't think we're as good as the 2016 team perhaps suggested but with all the investment being made if we didn't get to 10-6 and get at least a playoff berth via wildcard I'd think it was under performance. With that said, what I'd like to see would be:

i)  Carr looking more composed and less jittery, playing within the system and not trying to over play and take panic shots - this for me, is the most important thing

ii)  At least a moderate defence, a step up in coaching I think can make the difference here, especially in coverages and accentuating players' skill sets 

iii)  Improved pass rush, I'm optimistic we can achieve this with well schemed blitzes and a little interior penetration and support for Mack (I don't expect us to be top 5 in sacks though nor should we need it to be effective)

iv)  Balance on offence with a varied passing game to suit the down and distance (which we were awful at last year) and a robust running game with Lynch leading the charge (I think he'll have a good year)

v)  I don't think there's an outstanding team in the AFC West and all teams have serious flaws so there's no reason in my book why we shouldn't be challenging for the title

 

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Hey Darbsk!

I agree with you as usual.

Would like to hear your opinion on our divisional rivals! The Chargers roster looks really strong on paper and also that KC offense can be special IMO. Our 2016 success shows how far a dynamic O can take a team in the regular season. We could have hard times against those teams IMO. Denver is also not an easy win with that defense...

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Rolni said:

Hey Darbsk!

I agree with you as usual.

Would like to hear your opinion on our divisional rivals! The Chargers roster looks really strong on paper and also that KC offense can be special IMO. Our 2016 success shows how far a dynamic O can take a team in the regular season. We could have hard times against those teams IMO. Denver is also not an easy win with that defense...

Thanks Rolni!

With regard the Chargers, I feel like the moves to bolster their OL are a little like our moves with CB the last few years - they could be good but it's a risk with injuries and inconsistency. Rivers is still a great player and a danger, Allen and Henry are very good receivers but I just always fancy our chances against the Chargers, we always seem to be able to turn the away game into a neutral territory. I'm more concerned with their D if I'm honest and the trifecta of Bosa, Ingram and Luiget looks very strong. Derwin James I really loved as a prospect and with guys like Verrett and Hayward there they have big potential in the secondary and I like Gus Bradley as a DC. They will be tough and as you say, great on paper but perhaps it's just the optimist in me, I just feel like they'll find a way to underachieve again.

KC I have a grudging respect for - great coach and plenty of speed and big play potential though I'm not sold on Mahomes and I think pretty much everyone underrated Alex Smith and how much stability he brought to KC, was particularly effective against us! They have some talent on D but they don't fill me with dread like a few years ago when Hali and Houston were running amok. Bailey and Jones I like along the DL but they might be fading a little as a defensive powerhouse, they've outcoached us recently but I think we could be about to change that.

Denver I see as an average side but no more, Keenum won't play as well as he did last season IMO and I see him as no more than an average starter who was put in a great situation last year and exceeded expectations. They have some very nice talent again on D but their QB and OL don't inspire me. Emmanuel Sanders is a class act at WR and Demaryius Thomas of course shouldn't be written off after a down year. Their DL was quite porous last year and I don't see much improvement there and no real big moves, Peko is a year older and Shelby Harris and Wolfe are solid rather than scary. 

Now, I don't expect us to dominate the division this year but I don't see any sides we can't beat and I'd think we'd at least split the games and may sneak a double against Denver which will put us right in the hunt. It's really interesting this year as all 4 teams have a few very strong areas and some particular lean parts of the team.   

Edited by Darbsk

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