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BigD1123

What is your REALISTIC expectation for this year?

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give me 10-6. We were outcoached week in week out last year. I expect Gruden to protect Carr and get him back to '16 form.

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I think the Raiders will have success in the coming season 

I know everyone is high on the bolts, but I see them taking steps backwards as Rivers gets up there in age. I expect the Broncos to be the Broncos. The other team to look out for in the West in my opinion, is Kansas City. I expect that offense to be far better than it has been with Smith under center. I think it comes down to Raiders and Chiefs for the Division, with both possibly making the postseason. Just my somewhat outsider spin on things. Bolts and Broncos both will field a fierce D, but not enough offense to keep pace with KC/Oak over the course of 16 games. 

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16 hours ago, Darbsk said:

Thanks Rolni!

With regard the Chargers, I feel like the moves to bolster their OL are a little like our moves with CB the last few years - they could be good but it's a risk with injuries and inconsistency. Rivers is still a great player and a danger, Allen and Henry are very good receivers but I just always fancy our chances against the Chargers, we always seem to be able to turn the away game into a neutral territory. I'm more concerned with their D if I'm honest and the trifecta of Bosa, Ingram and Luiget looks very strong. Derwin James I really loved as a prospect and with guys like Verrett and Hayward there they have big potential in the secondary and I like Gus Bradley as a DC. They will be tough and as you say, great on paper but perhaps it's just the optimist in me, I just feel like they'll find a way to underachieve again.

KC I have a grudging respect for - great coach and plenty of speed and big play potential though I'm not sold on Mahomes and I think pretty much everyone underrated Alex Smith and how much stability he brought to KC, was particularly effective against us! They have some talent on D but they don't fill me with dread like a few years ago when Hali and Houston were running amok. Bailey and Jones I like along the DL but they might be fading a little as a defensive powerhouse, they've outcoached us recently but I think we could be about to change that.

Denver I see as an average side but no more, Keenum won't play as well as he did last season IMO and I see him as no more than an average starter who was put in a great situation last year and exceeded expectations. They have some very nice talent again on D but their QB and OL don't inspire me. Emmanuel Sanders is a class act at WR and Demaryius Thomas of course shouldn't be written off after a down year. Their DL was quite porous last year and I don't see much improvement there and no real big moves, Peko is a year older and Shelby Harris and Wolfe are solid rather than scary. 

Now, I don't expect us to dominate the division this year but I don't see any sides we can't beat and I'd think we'd at least split the games and may sneak a double against Denver which will put us right in the hunt. It's really interesting this year as all 4 teams have a few very strong areas and some particular lean parts of the team.   

Chargers: They just lost Henry with an ACL...they must really have a curse on them...
I agree with you that their OL is kinda a boom or bust unit...I think a strong run game will be a must against that D. If we have that we have a solid chance. And obviously we have to get into Rivers face!

KC's defense is not that dangerous anymore, if we have a strong running game we have a good chance to controll them. It will be interesting what happens with Mahomes at the helm. They will be a dangerous big play offense IMO, but they could be prone to mistakes too. Smith was a machine and he owned us as you said...Mahomes will be a rookie essentially, so with a complex D and some interesting blitz packages we could have success against him.

Denver seems like the weakest link in the division to me, however an improved QB play can make a big difference. We know Musgrave can be creative and could call good games. That defense with Chubb and Miller could again be special, however that No Fly Zone is over IMO and they somewhat struggled against the run in recent years...

 

Overall I think we need a strong and consistent running game. If we have that I trust Carr, Gruden and Olson to find ways to make plays, make big plays and score points through the air. On the other side we need discipline, solid run D and finally some interior pressure. Easier to say then do obviously, but I like our chances with PG and his scheme, with Trgovac and with the Hurst, Hall, Key pick ups...

My fear is that we need the OL and Cable to perform well in order to have the run game going and he is my weak link in this coaching staff since his hiring...I try to think about his time with us when he made that OL servicable and made Fargas and Bush look good and also his early years with Lynch in Seatlle, but still...

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