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BigD1123

What is your REALISTIC expectation for this year?

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Posted (edited)

My expectation for this year is 10 wins and us being in the hunt for a division title and worst case a wild card slot.  I will explain on the field positions below but the play calling of Gruden on O and and Gunther on D will be massive improvements over what we have seen for the last few years.  

QB: Our QB situation has not changed in terms of personnel but the addition of Gruden and his play calling along with our much improved WR core and D should allow Carr to have his best statical season to date.  I feel like Carr will make an MVP push and legitimizes himself as a top 7 QB in the league.

RB:  Once again a stronger unit than last year with the additions of Martin and Smith.  I am not sure what to expect from Martin but if he still has something left in the tank he will form a nice 1/2 punch with Lynch.  If he still can preform he will be an asset in the passing game out of the backfield.  

WR:  Everyone knows how much I love the addition of Bryant.  He is a prototypical "split end" or "X WR" that will take our opponents top CB with him.  His addition is huge and will make all of the players around him better because of the attention he will command being 6'4, having 4.4 speed, good hands and a massive catch radius.  I was first opposed to the addition of Nelson based on his age but after the addition of Bryant this move makes perfect sense.  He can teach both MB and AC how to take their games to the next level and even if he has lost a step his hands are fantastic and will be a threat in the red zone.  Cooper will have his best statical year to date as he will see most of his snaps from the slot.  He can thank MB and JN for that for his statistical improvement because he will finally be lining up in the slot which is ideal for his skillset .  He clearly cant cut it as a number 1 but will flourish against nickel backs.  I am not sure how Switzer will be utilized but he will be useful on ST and I feel when he is on the field he will make an impact.  WR upgrade over Patterson for sure.  I'm not a fan of Roberts and could care less if he is traded.

TE:  Hasn't changed much.  I'm not a huge Cook fan but he is very athletic and gets the job done.  

OL:  Same unit as last year except RT.  I believe that Miller starts at RT day one and is an improvement over Newhouse.  I find it hard to believe he could be any worse.  The unit is as solid as their is in the NFL.

DL:  Mack is a beast, nothing more needs to be said than that.  I feel like he has the most sacks of his career this season and that is because of the addition of Gunther and the improved talent around him.  I'm interested to see how Irvin transitions to DE.  If the rest of the players play like I think they will he should do just fine.  NT is pretty much unchanged with Jelly and EVD when he returns.  They can eat space and are good against the run.  I'm fascinated to see how Hurst and PJ pan out as our 3T as both have tremendous potential.  I see Hurst starting day 1 and the combo of those two adding a pass rush up the middle which this team has lacked for as long as I can remember.  If either of these 2 become beasts as generating pressure up the middle this D takes a leap into the top 15 this year.  I like the Key pick as he is boom or bust player but if he can remain focused and strives to take his game to the next level he will be a steal in the 3rd. 

LB:  Our weakest unit for sure.  I like the addition of Whitehead, he is a solid player who will strengthen the unit because of his addition.  I like the DJ signing but realistically he is 36 years old and has major injury concerns.  When he is on the field he is an upgrade over Bowman in pass coverage and is as crafty as they come.  Solid player and smart pick up but I don't expect him to last the season and if we lose him that puts a glaring hole right in the middle of our D.  I'm not sure who starts at WLB nor how they will preform.  

DB:  Another vastly improved unit.  Conley has the makings of being a lock down number 1 CB.  He flashed it last year in his limited time on the field and this year I see him playing very well.  Melvin is also a very nice addition.  He was the best CB on a terrible Indy D that was on the field a ton last year and keep in mind he shut down some of the best WR's in the game.  He is a late bloomer at 28, which is a cause for concern but I think he is a legit NFL starter  and shows it again this season.  I also like the signing of Worley, who has had some off the field issues but has preformed well when on the field.  I expect him to see the most snaps as a nickel back and will spell GC and RM when needed.  I liked the signing of Gilcrest as he is versatile, can play all over the secondary and should see some time at nickel as well.  Nick Nelson was a draft pick who slipped due to injury.  If he is healthy and as good as advertised he could have a role in this secondary as a rookie.  I think KJ has his best year to date.  I really hope Obi is more than just an athlete and becomes a solid starter because I am sick of seeing RN get torched. I am not sure what to make of Obi as I will need to see more of him to give a proper evaluation.

ST:  Pinero should be an improvement over GT and although King was a good punter he commanded too much money and was a headache.  I like the move to a rookie and Townsand comes highly regarded.  

Overall this is the most optimistic I have been in years and I think our improvements this offseason will translate into wins during the year.  Anything less than 10 wins this season is a disappointment as far as I am concerned.  

Edited by Frankie2Gunz

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I’m optimistic overall, but I will believe they are more than an 8-9 win team if they can prove they can reasonably cover TE and RB. I am not hopeful on that. 

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32 minutes ago, TLO said:

I’m optimistic overall, but I will believe they are more than an 8-9 win team if they can prove they can reasonably cover TE and RB. I am not hopeful on that. 

You're just being negative like me I guess lol.

I 100% agree. Today's NFL and in the AFC West particularly, you have to be able to cover backs and TEs. The Raiders LBs are completely overmatched, slow and have minimal range. They will again create major issues on the defense. 

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1 hour ago, big_palooka said:

You're just being negative like me I guess lol.

I 100% agree. Today's NFL and in the AFC West particularly, you have to be able to cover backs and TEs. The Raiders LBs are completely overmatched, slow and have minimal range. They will again create major issues on the defense. 

It’s been such a huge weakness year after year, so I won’t get my hopes up until I actually see some improvement. I feel confident about the offense, but thats only half the battle. 

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1 hour ago, TLO said:

It’s been such a huge weakness year after year, so I won’t get my hopes up until I actually see some improvement. I feel confident about the offense, but thats only half the battle. 

Same. Been clamoring for years to upgrade the LBs with speed and some coverage ability. Not making a move on Jack still kills me

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5 hours ago, big_palooka said:

Same. Been clamoring for years to upgrade the LBs with speed and some coverage ability. Not making a move on Jack still kills me

Are you anticipating Derrick Johnson falling off a cliff. By all metrics, he was good in coverage last year.

Also, scheme accounted for a lot of our problems against backs, seeing as people blew their assignments, causing running backs to run free. Thanks KNJ.

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On 7/13/2018 at 7:31 PM, MrOaktown_56 said:

Are you anticipating Derrick Johnson falling off a cliff. By all metrics, he was good in coverage last year.

Also, scheme accounted for a lot of our problems against backs, seeing as people blew their assignments, causing running backs to run free. Thanks KNJ.

Derrick Johnson is 36 and has had trouble staying healthy. I think he will be average and if he misses any time, the team is in trouble because there is ZERO depth currently. Putting their eggs in Johnson is misguided. 

The scheme argument is weak as well. There were too many examples of players just not being good enough to cover backs in space and TEs have owned the Raiders for a decade now. You need talent along with scheme. 

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My expectation is that we are better than most ppl are saying we will be. Not a super bowl contender, but at least contending for a playoff berth. Some analysts read way too much into some of the stuff Gruden said and did this offseason and assume that we are going to be a three yards and a cloud of dust offense. Sure, there will be some growing pains, but I for one am pretty excited about our offense. Sure, we brought in a true fullback and blocking tight end, but the pats did too and no one is expecting them to run 40 times a game.

I understand the criticism that comes with being a raider fan and that Gruden will be questioned due to his contract, time away, and last couple years in Tampa, but some ppl are acting like we have ten years 100 mil to Jeff Fisher.

With all that said, I think that this year, we should be somewhere between 2015 and 2016 in terms of wins. Think eight is our floor, ten is our ceiling.

With some more familiarity, some progress from a Carr, a true mlb, a young versatile rb (why didn’t we take guice?) and a couple other pieces, we should be in good shape for 2019. Obviously would hope for more this year but we still have some holes to fill and kinks to work out.

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On 7/15/2018 at 10:01 AM, big_palooka said:

Derrick Johnson is 36 and has had trouble staying healthy. I think he will be average and if he misses any time, the team is in trouble because there is ZERO depth currently. Putting their eggs in Johnson is misguided. 

The scheme argument is weak as well. There were too many examples of players just not being good enough to cover backs in space and TEs have owned the Raiders for a decade now. You need talent along with scheme. 

1

He's cheap and a short term commitment, is clearly aware on the field, and was good in coverage, while providing a vet presence to the young guys. You only have so many draft picks and I'm sure Gruden would have loved to upgrade the spot. He may override Reggie this time around next year. In the meantime, lets hope for a young guy to develop.

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5 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

He's cheap and a short term commitment, is clearly aware on the field, and was good in coverage, while providing a vet presence to the young guys. You only have so many draft picks and I'm sure Gruden would have loved to upgrade the spot. He may override Reggie this time around next year. In the meantime, lets hope for a young guy to develop.

He's also another year older, prone to injury. So if he misses any significant time, they are in trouble unless one of the young guys has really developed his game.

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Herd doesn't like the Raiders. Don't like his logic for the most part. But he's right on the fact there are a lot of unknowns with Gruden coming back.

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On 7/15/2018 at 10:01 AM, big_palooka said:

Derrick Johnson is 36 and has had trouble staying healthy. I think he will be average and if he misses any time, the team is in trouble because there is ZERO depth currently. Putting their eggs in Johnson is misguided. 

Agreed. Johnson is 36 and has tore his Achilles twice in the last four seasons. That's what we're banking on. I very much doubt he could've started anywhere but here. That's how dire our LB situation is and continues to be year after year. 

And I dont care what the metrics said last year, No way do I trust Johnson to be able to cover RBs and TEs. He may be a smart, heady defensive leader but all that goes out the window when you're old, slow and have to cover Melvin Gordon in the flats.

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4 hours ago, SilverNBlackFan said:

Agreed. Johnson is 36 and has tore his Achilles twice in the last four seasons. That's what we're banking on. I very much doubt he could've started anywhere but here. That's how dire our LB situation is and continues to be year after year. 

And I dont care what the metrics said last year, No way do I trust Johnson to be able to cover RBs and TEs. He may be a smart, heady defensive leader but all that goes out the window when you're old, slow and have to cover Melvin Gordon in the flats.

2

He IS old... but he was good in coverage last year, including man coverage. You don't have to trust him. 4-5 teams gave him offers and he chose ours. We have an excellent defensive staff that brought him in.

If anything is a concern, it was his play in the run game...

He's also in his 2nd year off the achilles, which always helps in regaining athleticism, which is part of the reason I want Bowman back as well.

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12 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

He IS old... but he was good in coverage last year, including man coverage. You don't have to trust him. 4-5 teams gave him offers and he chose ours. We have an excellent defensive staff that brought him in.

If anything is a concern, it was his play in the run game...

He's also in his 2nd year off the achilles, which always helps in regaining athleticism, which is part of the reason I want Bowman back as well.

If you want to keep trying to sell yourself on it, so be it. LAST YEAR means nothing when you're a 36 year old player. You see how much slower and older Nelson looked the last year compared to 2016? 

The staff brought him in, because he was the ONLY option out there outside Bowman who is still yet to sign anywhere and is older and slower.

Johnson isn't finding the fountain of youth. The LBs will predictably, be a problem for the defense just as they were the last number of years.

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We've improved in talent and coaching. Would love to add DT Hankins, LB Bowman and CB Cro or Breeland. It's cheap contract time and somebody will get them cheap. Depth to keep them rested but reality is we won't be signing anybody noteworthy. Indy has too much cash to get them all which makes me wonder WTF with Hankins...

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