What is your REALISTIC expectation for this year?

[MrOaktown_56]

10 hours ago, big_palooka said:

If you want to keep trying to sell yourself on it, so be it. LAST YEAR means nothing when you're a 36 year old player. You see how much slower and older Nelson looked the last year compared to 2016? 

The staff brought him in, because he was the ONLY option out there outside Bowman who is still yet to sign anywhere and is older and slower.

Johnson isn't finding the fountain of youth. The LBs will predictably, be a problem for the defense just as they were the last number of years.

2

Nelson had a massive dropoff in speed from 2015 to 2016. Yeah obviously if Johnson drops off that much, we're screwed. I'm hoping the coaches know something we don't.

[Chali21]

My expectations are a better defense at very least. I believe in Grunther as a coach as he was successful in Cinncy and they wanted to retain him. There isn’t as much talent on defense but i think that they should be better because they have a coach who can scheme it looks like. 

 

The offense is suspect. After taking the NFL by storm in 2016 they fell on their face in 2017. Sure downing was in over his head but Gruden hasn’t coached a top offense in about 15 years. 

 

Special teams is is almost completely new across the board but the ST coach seems pretty good and familiarity with Switzer could pay dividends. 

 

Overall because of the strength of the West I project a 3rd place finish at either 9-7 or 6-10. 

[MrOaktown_56]

48 minutes ago, Chali21 said:

My expectations are a better defense at very least. I believe in Grunther as a coach as he was successful in Cinncy and they wanted to retain him. There isn’t as much talent on defense but i think that they should be better because they have a coach who can scheme it looks like. 

 

The offense is suspect. After taking the NFL by storm in 2016 they fell on their face in 2017. Sure downing was in over his head but Gruden hasn’t coached a top offense in about 15 years. 

 

Special teams is is almost completely new across the board but the ST coach seems pretty good and familiarity with Switzer could pay dividends. 

 

Overall because of the strength of the West I project a 3rd place finish at either 9-7 or 6-10. 

3

What kind of pieces/offense did Gruden have in Tampa compared to ours.

Also, I don't think anyone can be worse than Downing last year. I remember guys who watch film, e.g. Louis Riddick calling Downings offense a joke.

His spacing concepts were so bad that two receivers would always end up in the same place. Olsen can help him install the offense and hopefully has learned something from collaborating with McVay. In addition, Edgar Bennett will help the receivers learn the scheme, as Packers fans have had nothing but good things to say about him as a receivers coach.

[Totty]

2 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

What kind of pieces/offense did Gruden have in Tampa compared to ours.

Also, I don't think anyone can be worse than Downing last year. I remember guys who watch film, e.g. Louis Riddick calling Downings offense a joke.

His spacing concepts were so bad that two receivers would always end up in the same place. Olsen can help him install the offense and hopefully has learned something from collaborating with McVay. In addition, Edgar Bennett will help the receivers learn the scheme, as Packers fans have had nothing but good things to say about him as a receivers coach.

I think our offense supercedes anything he had in Tampa at any point.  

[big_palooka]

11 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

What kind of pieces/offense did Gruden have in Tampa compared to ours.

Also, I don't think anyone can be worse than Downing last year. I remember guys who watch film, e.g. Louis Riddick calling Downings offense a joke.

His spacing concepts were so bad that two receivers would always end up in the same place. Olsen can help him install the offense and hopefully has learned something from collaborating with McVay. In addition, Edgar Bennett will help the receivers learn the scheme, as Packers fans have had nothing but good things to say about him as a receivers coach.

It's clear you are drinking the kool-aid pretty feverishly. You can spin anything as a positive this time of year. But fact is, there are a lot of unknowns and will be growing pains. And there are a lot of holes in the roster. RT, LB, S, Dline/pass rush. So you should temper you expectations some.

I think a lot of you look at 2016 as more than it was. And because of that season and upgrades on the staff/roster you can just project success. But sports do not work that way. Too many variables and changes.

 

[MrOaktown_56]

10 hours ago, big_palooka said:

It's clear you are drinking the kool-aid pretty feverishly. You can spin anything as a positive this time of year. But fact is, there are a lot of unknowns and will be growing pains. And there are a lot of holes in the roster. RT, LB, S, Dline/pass rush. So you should temper you expectations some.

I think a lot of you look at 2016 as more than it was. And because of that season and upgrades on the staff/roster you can just project success. But sports do not work that way. Too many variables and changes.

 

3

Because I like the moves we've made? Because I've picked apart weaknesses on the roster that have been addressed? Because I said that Downing's offense was garbage and that there's talent on the roster offensively?

No one is saying this team is perfect, but moves have been made aggressively to fix those spots. You can call them holes if you want, because some of the players are free agents/rookies, but I see reasons for optimism. For example, if I didn't like the players we drafted, I wouldn't be as optimistic. Jihad Ward for example, I thought was an awful pick. If we drafted him to play DT this year, I wouldn't feel as good as I do about Hurst, for example.

Also, no team is without holes, even in the division. Every team has strengths and weaknesses. Obviously, the defense has question marks. No one's denying that. But there are reasons to believe it can improve.

If you don't see massive upgrades on the staff, then I don't know what I can do to convince you that anything will work out with this team.

The media is predicting 5-11/6-10, or 4th in the AFC West.

I see a lot more reasons for optimism just based on the sheer weight of how terribly coached this team was last year, let alone all the holes on the roster last year.

I'd rather have Gruden as a coach than JDR.

Gruden's playcalling> Downings (this one is obviously a projection, but you can't seriously tell me that Gruden will be a worse playcaller than a rookie playcaller who couldn't even land a positional coaching job after we fired him)

Paul Guenther>KNJ (this is obvious)

Mike Trgovac>Jethro Franklin (this is even more obvious)

Edgar Bennett>Rob Moore (this might be the most obvious)

These guys are respected, proven coaches in this league at key positions. And I trust them to develop players and get more out of guys than the previous staff. Maybe that's Kool Aid. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[big_palooka]

2 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Because I like the moves we've made? Because I've picked apart weaknesses on the roster that have been addressed? Because I said that Downing's offense was garbage and that there's talent on the roster offensively?

No one is saying this team is perfect, but moves have been made aggressively to fix those spots. You can call them holes if you want, because some of the players are free agents/rookies, but I see reasons for optimism. For example, if I didn't like the players we drafted, I wouldn't be as optimistic. Jihad Ward for example, I thought was an awful pick. If we drafted him to play DT this year, I wouldn't feel as good as I do about Hurst, for example.

Also, no team is without holes, even in the division. Every team has strengths and weaknesses. Obviously, the defense has question marks. No one's denying that. But there are reasons to believe it can improve.

If you don't see massive upgrades on the staff, then I don't know what I can do to convince you that anything will work out with this team.

The media is predicting 5-11/6-10, or 4th in the AFC West.

I see a lot more reasons for optimism just based on the sheer weight of how terribly coached this team was last year, let alone all the holes on the roster last year.

I'd rather have Gruden as a coach than JDR.

Gruden's playcalling> Downings (this one is obviously a projection, but you can't seriously tell me that Gruden will be a worse playcaller than a rookie playcaller who couldn't even land a positional coaching job after we fired him)

Paul Guenther>KNJ (this is obvious)

Mike Trgovac>Jethro Franklin (this is even more obvious)

Edgar Bennett>Rob Moore (this might be the most obvious)

These guys are respected, proven coaches in this league at key positions. And I trust them to develop players and get more out of guys than the previous staff. Maybe that's Kool Aid. 

This all started because you said I was being "negative" in saying this teams ceiling is 9 wins this year if everything goes well.

I see lots of reasons for optimism. I love this staff (minus Cable).

But it takes talent and time in a new system. And I don't see enough talent on defense to field a playoff caliber team. So 9 wins feels right. The offense will need to be a top 5 scoring team and outscore opponents similar to 2016. And there are question marks at both tackle spots and they are learning another new offense with new additions.

I'm very bullish on the future of this team. But they feel a year away for me still.

Lastly... which is typical of fans in the offseason, you marvel at "upgrades" on your own team while not taking into consideration how other teams look. So this whole justifying last year vs. this year staff, etc. is meaningless. Every year in the NFL is different and there are a lot of teams loaded in the AFC and 2 top level defenses in the west. 

[BigD1123]

6 hours ago, big_palooka said:

This all started because you said I was being "negative" in saying this teams ceiling is 9 wins this year if everything goes well.

I see lots of reasons for optimism. I love this staff (minus Cable).

But it takes talent and time in a new system. And I don't see enough talent on defense to field a playoff caliber team. So 9 wins feels right. The offense will need to be a top 5 scoring team and outscore opponents similar to 2016. And there are question marks at both tackle spots and they are learning another new offense with new additions.

I'm very bullish on the future of this team. But they feel a year away for me still.

Lastly... which is typical of fans in the offseason, you marvel at "upgrades" on your own team while not taking into consideration how other teams look. So this whole justifying last year vs. this year staff, etc. is meaningless. Every year in the NFL is different and there are a lot of teams loaded in the AFC and 2 top level defenses in the west. 

I am kinda with you here. I feel about this team as I did about the 2013/14 Clemson team. I like most of the additions, and additions by subtractions, but I feel we are one to two years away. That being said I feel like in that time not only will we be contenders but that we will stay in contention. I get the feel that we are building for the future while also trying to throw some "parts" in for the present. This offseason the team is getting a lot of flak from the media and fans alike. But in reality there is only so much any team can do in one offseason. But with Grudens long contract and the team looking to lock up the core guys for the majority of that contract it feels like we are planning for the future. While all the last leg vets seem like bandaids. I was not crazy about the draft but I see the potential. Not crazy about free agency but I feel like I understand the thought process. One of my least favorite moves was Johnson with no obvious backup plan. But if he can squeeze out one good season it could be HUGE. Same with Doug Martin, although I have a MJD feeling about that particular move, I understand what we are trying to accomplish. I really can't say the same for the JDR era. While we will have growing pains I don't think it will be from the coaching standpoint to the extreme most think. I think Gruden has done his homework and that he is executing a plan years in the making. I think he knows his weaknesses and that is why Olsen is here. It allows him a crutch while getting back into the playcalling groove as well as having someone to teach his system. It seems like that across the board in the coaching staff. Its theoretically the same approach Daboinstalled in Clemson. Get an actual system in place. Make sure the coaches know it first. Then the players. The longer players are in it the better. Then as coaches leave the replacement can come from within and the team doesn't suffer as bad. When new players arrive they have the coaches and vets all teaching the same things. I love the idea in theory and I hope it works as well for my Pro team as it does for my College team. And lastly I am not a Cable fan either but as a whole I feel the staff is emphatically improved over any staff we have had since...well probably Gruden.

[Bitty 2.0]

On 7/18/2018 at 6:22 PM, MrOaktown_56 said:

Nelson had a massive dropoff in speed from 2015 to 2016. Yeah obviously if Johnson drops off that much, we're screwed. I'm hoping the coaches know something we don't.

Nelson will probably be the third option in this offense and he should be able to succeed at that.

As for Johnson I see him playing mostly on passing downs. 

 

 I know it’s been along time since we had a coach who’s  putting  players in positions to succeed but that’s what we’re looking at.

The days of poor coaching are over.

[MrOaktown_56]

On 7/19/2018 at 5:42 PM, big_palooka said:

This all started because you said I was being "negative" in saying this teams ceiling is 9 wins this year if everything goes well.

I see lots of reasons for optimism. I love this staff (minus Cable).

But it takes talent and time in a new system. And I don't see enough talent on defense to field a playoff caliber team. So 9 wins feels right. The offense will need to be a top 5 scoring team and outscore opponents similar to 2016. And there are question marks at both tackle spots and they are learning another new offense with new additions.

I'm very bullish on the future of this team. But they feel a year away for me still.

Lastly... which is typical of fans in the offseason, you marvel at "upgrades" on your own team while not taking into consideration how other teams look. So this whole justifying last year vs. this year staff, etc. is meaningless. Every year in the NFL is different and there are a lot of teams loaded in the AFC and 2 top level defenses in the west. 

2

IIRC, you said 9-7 "if everything breaks right". So 9 wins doesn't "feel right", that's literally you backtracking, unless suddenly you think everything will "break right".

 

Also, the offense doesn't need to be a top 5 scoring unit to be a good team. That's hyperbole. The defense better under Pagano, which would be impossible if there wasn't some talent and potential on the defensive roster. It's not a lost season defensively if that's what you're implying.

 

Also, it's laughable that you think I'm discounting any other teams. I don't have time to delve into every team's offseason. I know the caliber of teams we're going against. The AFC West is pretty competitive, no matter what hype surrounds the Chargers, Broncos, and Chiefs. I also trust our qb situation far more than Mahomes/Keenum and that's a big advantage people fail to mention constantly. The Chiefs are without Alex Smith, who just had a career year from them. Nothing is settled in Denver re their quarterback and OL situation. The Chargers are a good team on paper, but they haven't been able to put it together early in seasons. There aren't overwhelming division favorites here like the NFC North, for example. This division is wide open.

[OG_C2X]

10-6

Coaching:
I know there are questions with Gruden. But I think we all have to think about it with common sense. He is Jon Gruden. CHUCKY!!! He eats, sleeps, drinks and breathes football. I, honestly expect Gruden to put an offense together that is more impressive then the Rams with McVay and the Falcons with Shanahan. Olsen has familiarity with Carr from his previous tenure with Oakland. Guenther is a vast improvement from KNJ and Pagano. I expect to see a defensive style similar to what Zimmer is doing in Minnesota. The position coaches have all improved. Cable gets a bad wrap, I have always been a fan. This is where this team has improved the MOST.

Offense:
Carr will be somewhere in the 12th - 7th best QB this year. He is going to have the best coaching staff he's ever had around him and the beat playcalling. Lynch and Martin with the help of Smith as a FB will give us enough production on the ground to let us play off it and execute effectively though the air. Bryant, assuming he is not suspended, is deadly over the top. And opens up the middle of the field for intermediate routes that Cooper and turn into home runs as we have seen before. Jordy will be a great target for Carr on third downs and in the redzone. I really think at some point in the year (sooner then I think alot of people are expecting) Miller will be starting at RT and Parker will be starting at LT, and it won't be because Penn is hurt, Parker is going to beat him out before week 1. I think Cook can be a serviceable TE 700 yards and 6 TDs.

Defense:
I think the defense will impressive a lot of the skeptics, real quick. I think before week 1. Key will be performing so well, that Irvin either becomes a rotational pass rusher with Key or is transitioned to a role more like Anthony Barr in Minnesota, as the SLB. With Whitehead playing the WLB and Thomas and Victor rotating at MLB. I think the interior rotation of MEJ, Hurst, Ellis, and Hall will keep everyone fresh and Hust may challenge Key for DROY. The improved pass rush from the front 4 will really help out what I expect to be our weakness (although I don't think it'll be that bad) I expect Conely to justify his draft position, Melvin, Worley, and Nelson should all be serviable. I expect Obi and KJ to be starting next to each other with Gilchrist rotating in to keep them fresh before to week 1.

Overall: if EVERYTHING goes right I can see us going upwards of 13-3. But realistically I expect 10 wins.

[Totty]

29 minutes ago, OG_C2X said:

10-6

Coaching:
I know there are questions with Gruden. But I think we all have to think about it with common sense. He is Jon Gruden. CHUCKY!!! He eats, sleeps, drinks and breathes football. I, honestly expect Gruden to put an offense together that is more impressive then the Rams with McVay and the Falcons with Shanahan. Olsen has familiarity with Carr from his previous tenure with Oakland. Guenther is a vast improvement from KNJ and Pagano. I expect to see a defensive style similar to what Zimmer is doing in Minnesota. The position coaches have all improved. Cable gets a bad wrap, I have always been a fan. This is where this team has improved the MOST.

Offense:
Carr will be somewhere in the 12th - 7th best QB this year. He is going to have the best coaching staff he's ever had around him and the beat playcalling. Lynch and Martin with the help of Smith as a FB will give us enough production on the ground to let us play off it and execute effectively though the air. Bryant, assuming he is not suspended, is deadly over the top. And opens up the middle of the field for intermediate routes that Cooper and turn into home runs as we have seen before. Jordy will be a great target for Carr on third downs and in the redzone. I really think at some point in the year (sooner then I think alot of people are expecting) Miller will be starting at RT and Parker will be starting at LT, and it won't be because Penn is hurt, Parker is going to beat him out before week 1. I think Cook can be a serviceable TE 700 yards and 6 TDs.

Defense:
I think the defense will impressive a lot of the skeptics, real quick. I think before week 1. Key will be performing so well, that Irvin either becomes a rotational pass rusher with Key or is transitioned to a role more like Anthony Barr in Minnesota, as the SLB. With Whitehead playing the WLB and Thomas and Victor rotating at MLB. I think the interior rotation of MEJ, Hurst, Ellis, and Hall will keep everyone fresh and Hust may challenge Key for DROY. The improved pass rush from the front 4 will really help out what I expect to be our weakness (although I don't think it'll be that bad) I expect Conely to justify his draft position, Melvin, Worley, and Nelson should all be serviable. I expect Obi and KJ to be starting next to each other with Gilchrist rotating in to keep them fresh before to week 1.

Overall: if EVERYTHING goes right I can see us going upwards of 13-3. But realistically I expect 10 wins.

So basically you expect everything to go 100% right with the team this year.  Got it.  

[big_palooka]

14 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

IIRC, you said 9-7 "if everything breaks right". So 9 wins doesn't "feel right", that's literally you backtracking, unless suddenly you think everything will "break right".

 I literally said - this teams ceiling is 9 wins this year if everything goes well. So yes, that "feels right" for their ceiling if everything breaks right. 

14 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Also, the offense doesn't need to be a top 5 scoring unit to be a good team. That's hyperbole. The defense better under Pagano, which would be impossible if there wasn't some talent and potential on the defensive roster. It's not a lost season defensively if that's what you're implying.

I'm implying that this defense lacks talent and it's star player is currently in a hold out. I think they will play better but be at best a middle of the pack defense.

 

14 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Also, it's laughable that you think I'm discounting any other teams. I don't have time to delve into every team's offseason. I know the caliber of teams we're going against. The AFC West is pretty competitive, no matter what hype surrounds the Chargers, Broncos, and Chiefs. I also trust our qb situation far more than Mahomes/Keenum and that's a big advantage people fail to mention constantly. The Chiefs are without Alex Smith, who just had a career year from them. Nothing is settled in Denver re their quarterback and OL situation. The Chargers are a good team on paper, but they haven't been able to put it together early in seasons. There aren't overwhelming division favorites here like the NFC North, for example. This division is wide open.

Division is wide open yes. But as much as you point to the 2016 Raiders teams as a barometer for their 2018 success, you could do the same with let's say Denver. They showed with an average QB and their all star defense, they can win a Super bowl. Insert Keenum. KC has more skill position talent than the Raiders have answers for. SD has the best QB in the division in Rivers and a great defense.

[MrOaktown_56]

7 hours ago, big_palooka said:

 I literally said - this teams ceiling is 9 wins this year if everything goes well. So yes, that "feels right" for their ceiling if everything breaks right. 

I'm implying that this defense lacks talent and it's star player is currently in a hold out. I think they will play better but be at best a middle of the pack defense.

 

Division is wide open yes. But as much as you point to the 2016 Raiders teams as a barometer for their 2018 success, you could do the same with let's say Denver. They showed with an average QB and their all star defense, they can win a Super bowl. Insert Keenum. KC has more skill position talent than the Raiders have answers for. SD has the best QB in the division in Rivers and a great defense.

5

"Feels right" and "feels right for their ceiling" aren't the same thing. That's like saying playoffs "feels right", versus playoffs "feels right as a ceiling". Completely different meaning.

Keenum hasn't proven all that much. He manned an offense loaded with talent with a good OC who's now a head coach. There are questions about every team in the west. You like to point to the flaws on the Raiders, but I can pick apart the other teams as well. We're at an impasse because of optimism, but I find it laughable that optimism makes me a "casual fan".

Unknown leaves it open to interpretation. Stating an opinion grounded in my evaluation of players/scheme is just that. An opinion. I'd love to see you ground them in a lot of the rooks we drafted for example. Yes they're rooks. There were a ton of impactful rooks last year, and a lot of people called them out as booms. I.e. kamara, who I liked more than McCaffrey and 3rd best in the class. Hurst for example, I feel similarly about, BEFORE we draft him.

Other teams may have also improved. I'm not underselling them. I think we have a shot this year to make some noise and removed some of the players holding this roster down (last years corners, Roberts, likely Nelson on most snaps, etc.). I"ll just leave it at that.

[raidersedge]

I don't think a winning season is unrealistic. Coaching is going to be much improved, a healthy Derek Carr and finally Raiders will have an interior pass rush. Predicting wins is so hard its pretty much pointless but I do believe we can compete with anyone.