Who has the better year: Alex Smith or Patrick Mahomes

[Chiefer]

Wondering what you all think? Who has the better year? Statistically or otherwise? Takes their team to the playoffs?

[SBLIII]

I think Smith will make less mistakes but also less big plays. I have KC as a 5 our 6 seed right now. Washington below .500 

[Broncofan]

53 minutes ago, Chiefer said:

Wondering what you all think? Who has the better year? Statistically or otherwise? Takes their team to the playoffs?

I'd much rather have Mahomes than Smith given the ceiling and the cost, but keep in mind that taking their team to the playoffs is a much harder proposition in the NFC than it is in the AFC.   I don't know if that's the barometer of QB success to use this year.

[Chiefer]

4 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I'd much rather have Mahomes than Smith given the ceiling and the cost, but keep in mind that taking their team to the playoffs is a much harder proposition in the NFC than it is in the AFC.   I don't know if that's the barometer of QB success to use this year.

The year hasnt started yet so who knows what next year holds imo.

The past is the past. Two years ago the AFC west was the best division, last year it was bad/ok.

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, Chiefer said:

The year hasnt started yet so who knows what next year holds imo.

The past is the past. Two years ago the AFC west was the best division, last year it was bad/ok.

Sure but you are using making the playoffs as something that the QB's will have an equivalent chance.   If you really believe that, we'll just agree to disagree, but IMO there's no way making the playoffs is even close to the same likelihood for a NFC team as it is for an AFC team. 

If you really want to say who had a bigger impact, see how well the O performs compared to last year, and how the team performs compared to last year.    They weren't starting from the same baselines, that's indisputable.   

I say all of the above as someone who would much rather have Mahomes than Smith, but if you are going to judge a team's performance as the indicator of QB succcess, then the team's change in performance and the field of competition provide a context that gives a far more accurate answer.    It would be like saying Blake Bortles was a better 2017 QB than Kirk Cousins. 

[Chiefer]

11 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Sure but you are using making the playoffs as something that the QB's will have an equivalent chance.   If you really believe that, we'll just agree to disagree, but IMO there's no way making the playoffs is even close to the same likelihood for a NFC team as it is for an AFC team. 

If you really want to say who had a bigger impact, see how well the O performs compared to last year, and how the team performs compared to last year.    They weren't starting from the same baselines, that's indisputable.   

I say all of the above as someone who would much rather have Mahomes than Smith, but if you are going to judge a team's performance as the indicator of QB succcess, then the team's change in performance and the field of competition provide a context that gives a far more accurate answer.    It would be like saying Blake Bortles was a better 2017 QB than Kirk Cousins. 

The  NFC east has a different division winner every year, so id say hes got equal chances there basing it off past performances.

And again youre talking past performance, when im talking future. Just because the Eagles won the SB doesnt mean theyll repeat. Infact they got a great chance to miss the playoffs entirely. As an example

 

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, Chiefer said:

The  NFC east has a different division winner every year, so id say hes got equal chances there basing it off past performances.

And again youre talking past performance, when im talking future. Just because the Eagles won the SB doesnt mean theyll repeat. Infact they got a great chance to miss the playoffs entirely.

 

If beating PHI was the only goal, though, I guess I might see the point (but even then, suggesting that WAS & KC are at the same probability now is a pretty big stretch).   The issue is that the NFC's top 8 teams I'd put as easily within the AFC's top 6.   2 NFC teams who won't even make the playoffs will likely be a team that's stronger overall than the last AFC playoff team.  And I'm talking about the future, not the past, either.    

If you really think making the playoffs is an equal chance for WAS & KC, we'll just agree to disagree.   And again, I say that as someone who'd much rather have Mahomes.  

[Jakuvious]

I'm biased.

[Danger]

Alex Smith very easily, at least for this season. In future seasons that remains to be seen.

[Jakuvious]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Sure but you are using making the playoffs as something that the QB's will have an equivalent chance.   If you really believe that, we'll just agree to disagree, but IMO there's no way making the playoffs is even close to the same likelihood for a NFC team as it is for an AFC team. 

If you really want to say who had a bigger impact, see how well the O performs compared to last year, and how the team performs compared to last year.    They weren't starting from the same baselines, that's indisputable.   

I say all of the above as someone who would much rather have Mahomes than Smith, but if you are going to judge a team's performance as the indicator of QB succcess, then the team's change in performance and the field of competition provide a context that gives a far more accurate answer.    It would be like saying Blake Bortles was a better 2017 QB than Kirk Cousins. 

That has it's own flaws too, really. It's much harder for Mahomes to improve on what the Chiefs O did last year than for Smith to improve on what the Redskins O did last year. If the Chiefs stay pat ranking wise (6th in points, 5th in yards) Mahomes probably had a better year than Smith if the Skins also stay pat rankings wise (16th in yards and points), for instance. Smith had a better year last year than Mahomes, so Mahomes is really trying to replace a better performance, making that a bit harder for him. I'm glad we moved on, but I'll still admit Smith was an MVP candidate for like half a season last year, and for good reason.

[Broncofan]

13 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

That has it's own flaws too, really. It's much harder for Mahomes to improve on what the Chiefs O did last year than for Smith to improve on what the Redskins O did last year. If the Chiefs stay pat ranking wise (6th in points, 5th in yards) Mahomes probably had a better year than Smith if the Skins also stay pat rankings wise (16th in yards and points), for instance. Smith had a better year last year than Mahomes, so Mahomes is really trying to replace a better performance, making that a bit harder for him. I'm glad we moved on, but I'll still admit Smith was an MVP candidate for like half a season last year, and for good reason.

There isn’t going to be a perfect system that’s an entirely fair take.   Just playoff outcome is about as flawed as it gets.   It assumes both teams have an equivalent shot to make the playoffs. 

Its kind of moot given the salary and ceiling IMO I’d much rather have Mahomes  I’d just rather use markers that actually reflect QB performance. 

[HTTRDynasty]

I'll take the QB that helped carry a bottom 3 defense to the playoffs last year over the QB who has played one NFL career game.

[tom cody]

Went with Alex Smith

[daineraider]

Pretty easily Smith.  Mahomes has the potential to be much better, but hasnt proven anything yet.  Not sure how much success is expected by a first year starter, but Im assuming he will have a decent amount of pressure on him this season.  

[patriotsheatyan]

Smith will be better, but Mahomes could have better numbers due to supporting cast.