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turtle28

Alex Smith had the highest completion % on play-action passes in 2017

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1 hour ago, MKnight82 said:

WIns are a team stat.

And a qb not turning the ball over helps his team win.

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This is so stupid! I’ll never mention our quarter back again.  It’s not blankety blank worth it.

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37 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

And a qb not turning the ball over helps his team win.

So does throwing for 1,000 more yards.

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6 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

This is so stupid! I’ll never mention our quarter back again.  It’s not blankety blank worth it.

Dude, you posted a cherry-picked stat from his best year and you think those of us who are dubious of the trade are just going to go "Oh that changes EVERYTHING!" ?

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2 hours ago, Slateman said:

And their better receivers. And their better defense. And their better offensive coordinator.

KC had a bottom 5 overall defense in the league last year by pretty much any and every metric.

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7 hours ago, Slateman said:

I'm going to need to see more than one season's worth of data to make that determination.

Also, "EXP" is simply the expected points. It's not a measure of how well a team runs the ball.

Here you go:

Putting this all together, I cannot find any support for the success of play-action passing being related in any way to a team's rushing statistics, whether measured by frequency or effectiveness.

Final Thoughts

Coming into this, I did not know what to expect. Since play-by-play data on play-action passing is not readily available, it was something I had long wondered but never been able to look into. After measuring this every way I could think if, it appears that the conventional wisdom that running is necessary for play-action passes to be effective should be questioned. We have a lot of evidence that play-action passing is more effective than non-play-action passing, so the big question that remains is why teams run play-action so infrequently (the percentage of passes that are play-action has hovered around 20 percent since 2011). What would happen if teams started devoting a higher share of their plays to play-action passing? Would the advantage persist or would defenses adjust?

The recently-concluded 2017 playoffs may provide a glimpse into a future where play-action is more common. The Eagles attempted 21 play-action passes in the Super Bowl on 43 dropbacks (49 percent). Frequent use of play-action (33 percent of dropbacks against the Patriots and 54 percent against the Steelers) also helped the Jaguars score 65 points across two playoff games and nearly reach the Super Bowl. In the constant search for advantages in a competitive league, play-action passing appears to be an under-utilized edge.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/rushing-success-and-play-action-passing

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, Woz said:

Dude, you posted a cherry-picked stat from his best year and you think those of us who are dubious of the trade are just going to go "Oh that changes EVERYTHING!" ?

I never ever said that it changed anything or should for the doubters of Alex.  That’s your assumption!

My op was about Alex Smith and just that he was tops in the league at play-action pass percentage which, usually results in posters saying. Wow, didn’t know that, that’s great! If that’s the case, we should continue to run a lot of play action passes because he’s good at it. Instead, it went off the damn rails from the first reponse because Mar had to bring up that he still isn’t better than Kirk.

Like that matters anymore? Kirk is gone and he isn’t coming back. 

So, instead of this forum having the ability to move on from Kirk and talk about just Alex we’re having the same stupid conversations we had back in February and March abd still comparing Alex and Kirk.

I don’t want to talk about Kirk, I want to talk about Alex and that’s why I posted a good stat about him. And I don’t want to talk about Alex from 3, 5, or 13 years ago. I want to talk about what Alex has developed into, not his median stats from when his offense was run first, didn’t have great receivers - only a great TE - and that offense never threw the ball 500 times in a season.

Edited by turtle28

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48 minutes ago, Woz said:

Dude, you posted a cherry-picked stat from his best year and you think those of us who are dubious of the trade are just going to go "Oh that changes EVERYTHING!" ?

He posted it to thumbs up the idea of more play-action. 

.. and to no surprise from this guy... some took actual offense to his post, and elected to get overly critical of the new QB. 

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Just now, turtle28 said:

I never ever said that it changed anything or should for the doubters of Alex.  That’s your assumption!

My op was about Alex Smith and just that he was tops in the league at play-action pass percentage which, usually results in posters saying. Wow, didn’t know that, that’s great! If that’s the case, we should continue to run a lot of play action passes because he’s good at it

In that case, I apologize.

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Kirk is better case closed. better passing stats with less talent case closed. also no running game, case closed. alex smith dumped by two team, case closed. 

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22 minutes ago, mar29020 said:

Kirk is better case closed. better passing stats with less talent case closed. also no running game, case closed. alex smith dumped by two team, case closed. 

fishing.gif

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, mar29020 said:

Kirk is better case closed. better passing stats with less talent case closed. also no running game, case closed. alex smith dumped by two team, case closed. 

It doesn’t matter. Kirk isn’t coming back. It’s never been the point of this thread to compare Alex & Kirk, only to point out that Alex was great off the play-action pass last season and hopefully because we have Guice now we can be good off of play action.

Edited by turtle28

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39 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

It doesn’t matter. Kirk isn’t coming back. It’s never been the point of this thread to compare Alex & Kirk, only to point out that Alex was great off the play-action pass last season and hopefully because we have Guice now we can be good off of play action.

sure.

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7 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

WIns are a team stat.

Yup. I seriously cannot understand why more people do not understand this.

Since wins are a team stat, the only ones judged by it should be those who have purview over the entire team. As such, only:

Head Coaches

GMs

Owners

...should be judged by wins.

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Alex Smith doesn’t realize how much of a hit his win percentage is going to take after he puts on that Redskins uni....welcome to hell, Alex. Grab a beer and have a seat. 

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