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dll2000

Prop bets: What do you think?

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I dont know Vegas odds. Just making these up in car cuz I’m bored traveling.  I’d look them up, but battery is about to die  

Howard over under 1100 yards rushing?

Over under 7.5 wins?

Allen over under 875 yards receiving?

More INTs MT or Bears D?

Who will be 2nd leading receiver?

Floyd over under 8 sacks?

 

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47 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

I dont know Vegas odds. Just making these up in car cuz I’m bored traveling.  I’d look them up, but battery is about to die  

Howard over under 1100 yards rushing? Over

Over under 7.5 wins? Over

Allen over under 875 yards receiving? Over

More INTs MT or Bears D?  MT ( I am thinking he has a 24/12 year, they probably get 10 INTs)

Who will be 2nd leading receiver? Burton

Floyd over under 8 sacks? Under

 

 

Listed above

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37 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

I dont know Vegas odds. Just making these up in car cuz I’m bored traveling.  I’d look them up, but battery is about to die  

Howard over under 1100 yards rushing?

Over under 7.5 wins?

Allen over under 875 yards receiving?

More INTs MT or Bears D?

Who will be 2nd leading receiver?

Floyd over under 8 sacks?

 

1. Howard @ 1100 yards

I'll go under here... Nagy is going to be pushing the passing attack much more heavily than in previous years, and I think Cohen/Cunningham as possibly even that UDFA Nall (as a "FB") are gonna get some increased overall usage on the field since they are better receiving threats.

2. 7.5 wins?

I'm expecting 8-10 and narrowly missing the playoffs (or being the bottom seed Wildcard if we do make it)

3. Allen over 875?

Actually going to go UNDER. Mitch is going to be under a ton of pressure this year as the offense is new and uses the passing game more, leading to mistakes (turnovers) as he acclimates. The main factor, however, will be the division of targets that keeps Allen's #s down... He's going to be keyed on (rightly so) as the #1 guy, and I think the ball is spread out enough around him to keep his numbers down.

4. More ints, the D or MT?

MT sadly... Roquan might get 2, and Jackson might get another one or two.... but no one else on the Defense is going to be getting picks. I'm very skeptical of Fuller/Prince/Amos repeating last season's level of play and none could catch a cold. Meanwhile as said above, I think with the offense being new, WRs being new, the much more modern approach putting the ball in the air more often, and frankly Mitch being held back by the archaic offense we ran last year add up to a ton of pressure on Mitch for this year, and that should logically lead to more mistakes as he develops.

5. #2 WR

Anthony Miller will be the run away #2... possibly even the #1 by targets as teams focus on locking down Allen.

6. Floyd 8 sacks?

Under. Vic drops him in coverage too much and there's nothing happening on the other side of the formation, letting teams scheme to stop Floyd.

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53 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

 

Listed above

Are those the Vegas odds, or your picks? 

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2 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

Are those the Vegas odds, or your picks? 

 

Those are my picks in bold.

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15 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

 

Those are my picks in bold.

GIF-nod-approval-agree--Nodding-GIF.gif

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Howard over under 1100 yards rushing?

Over. This is simple math for me. Howard has averaged 4.61 ypc against mostly 8-man fronts in a predictably bland offense his first two years. At 4.61 ypc he’d need 239 carries to get to 1100. That’s just less than 15 per game. With good health I think 1100 is a layup personally. 

Over under 7.5 wins?

Over. I’m expecting 8-10 wins this year. An average offense with last year’s defense gives us a realistic shot to win every week. I think our offense may be better than average, and our defense may be better than last year. 

Allen over under 875 yards receiving?

Over. In his career Robinson has averaged 7.41 yards per target. At that rate he’ll need about 120 targets to get 875, or about 8 per game. His last two healthy seasons he had 151 targets each. 

More INTs MT or Bears D?

Bears D. Last year’s 2.1% INT rate and expecting 32 passes per game (512 over 16) puts Mitch at 10.7 projected INT. I expect our D to have somewhere between 12-15 INT with the increase stemming from my expectation we will be playing with the lead far more often this year.

Who will be 2nd leading receiver?

Miller on yardage but Cohen on receptions. 

Floyd over under 8 sacks?

Over. With Roquan able to do the things in coverage regularly asked of Floyd the past two years and my expectation for us playing more with the lead later in games I’m expecting Floyd to have a significant uptick in pass rush opportunities. More opportunities = more sacks.

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Howard over under 1100 yards rushing?

Over. Easily.

Over under 7.5 wins?

I expect (and wouldn't be disappointed) with 7 wins, I take the under but it is close.

Allen over under 875 yards receiving?

That depends more on Mitch and Allens health but I'm confident he'll manage 875 yards. Over.

More INTs MT or Bears D?

Mitchell. Not because he's bad but because our D didnt get many INTs.

Who will be 2nd leading receiver?

Trey Burton

Floyd over under 8 sacks?

Under. Not enough help from the other pass rusher, I can see it being over if Goldman stays healthy but not by much.

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14 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I dont know Vegas odds. Just making these up in car cuz I’m bored traveling.  I’d look them up, but battery is about to die  

Howard over under 1100 yards rushing?

Over.  For all the reasons outlined by AZ.  Being wrong on this one is probably the one that would shock me the most, provided Howard is in good health.

Over under 7.5 wins? So the vegas o/u is 6.5, but its interesting, b/c its -120 to bet the over and +80 to bet the under.  Vegas is begging people to bet the under.  Im like Vegas, ill take the over.  I have 10 wins in my picks and sticking with it until i see something that changes my mind.

Allen over under 875 yards receiving?

Over, Allen is going to be fed the ball...a lot.

More INTs MT or Bears D? Im going to say MT only bc defenses in general dont produce a ton of ints and i still that weakness our secondary.  

Who will be 2nd leading receiver?

Im going to go Burton, but im not super confident.

Floyd over under 8 sacks?

Im taking the over.  He just needs to stay healthy.

 

 

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I dont know Vegas odds. Just making these up in car cuz I’m bored traveling.  I’d look them up, but battery is about to die  

Howard over under 1100 yards rushing?
Under. This team is going to be almost 50/50 in run/pass for the first few weeks, but once MT gets comfortable, it'll be a predominantly a passing offense. Plus, Howard's gotten his *** kicked for 2 years now. I can see him missing a few games.

Over under 7.5 wins?
I'm going to say over. They'll beat Green Bay once, Detroit once, Seattle, Tampa Bay, NYJ, NYG, Miami, and Arizona.

Allen over under 875 yards receiving?
I'm assuming you mean Allen Robinson. I think that'll be an easy over. He'll finish with 1,138 yards.

More INTs MT or Bears D?
Trubisky. This offense is very difficult to pick up, and it's been publicized that the offense typically takes 2-3 years to master. I think he finishes with 28 touchdowns and 13 INT's.

Who will be 2nd leading receiver?
Cohen finishes with the most catches. Robinson finishes with the most yards. Burton is second in both categories.

Floyd over under 8 sacks?
Over. I think he plays the most games he's ever played and finishes with 10.5 sacks

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2 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

I'm assuming you mean Allen Robinson. I think that'll be an easy over. He'll finish with 1,138 yards.

That's an...oddly specific number. 

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29 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

That's an...oddly specific number. 

It's 71.125 yards per game over 16 games, pretty common number... duh...

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42 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

That's an...oddly specific number. 

 

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JoHo under 1000 yds

Over 7.5 wins

Allen Under

More INT for MT10

Kevin Goddamn White

Floyd Over

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