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I created a sort of expected points metric in my spare time, so here's the top 10 by that from last season. David Johnson would definitely be up there but he obviously missed the whole year.

1. Todd Gurley II, Los Angeles Rams - 129.22

2. Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers - 123.73

3. Kareem Hunt, Kansas City - 122.65

4. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans - 114.69

5. Mark Ingram, New Orleans - 113.04

6. Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers - 110.13

7. LeSean McCoy, Buffalo - 104.68

8. Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville - 97.29

9. Jordan Howard, Chicago - 94.24

10. Carlos Hyde, San Francisco - 92.14

Just Missed: Dion Lewis, Tennessee (then NE) - 91.81

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7 hours ago, AlNFL19 said:

I created a sort of expected points metric in my spare time, so here's the top 10 by that from last season. David Johnson would definitely be up there but he obviously missed the whole year.

1. Todd Gurley II, Los Angeles Rams - 129.22

2. Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers - 123.73

3. Kareem Hunt, Kansas City - 122.65

4. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans - 114.69

5. Mark Ingram, New Orleans - 113.04

6. Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers - 110.13

7. LeSean McCoy, Buffalo - 104.68

8. Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville - 97.29

9. Jordan Howard, Chicago - 94.24

10. Carlos Hyde, San Francisco - 92.14

Just Missed: Dion Lewis, Tennessee (then NE) - 91.81

Any chance you let us know what it's based on? Ever tried it for the draft?

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19 hours ago, Scout said:

Any chance you let us know what it's based on? Ever tried it for the draft?

Nah I'm too lazy to find all that stuff for college players. It's based on a lot of stuff, mainly just statistics like yards and TDs and such that measure general production, and then weights them according to their contributions to scoring.

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If rookies are allowed, Saquon Barkley is in the top 5 for me.

1. Todd Gurley

2. Le'Veon Bell

3. Ezekiel Elliot

4. Saquon Barkley

5. Leonard Fournette

^^^^

I think these are the best 5 guys. I know it's missing names that have put up better stats, but if I'm building a team, I take these RB's in this order. Sue me.

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8 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

How?

Time and time again rookies have proven to top the league as soon as they enter. Fournette proved it last year. Elliot the year before that. AJ Green was a top 10 receiver the moment he was drafted.

I think it's silly to wait and see when people base their rankings on projections.

Edited by SmittyBacall
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9 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

Because he's better than 95% of the RB's in the NFL already. Pretty simple. He's the best RB prospect since Adrian Peterson.

Cases like Reggie Bush are exactly why you can't just proclaim someone as anything before they get into the league. Bush was arguably the best prospect all time and ended up being a very average RB overall (good receiving back, poor runner). Better prospect =/= better player.

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2 minutes ago, skywlker32 said:

Cases like Reggie Bush are exactly why you can't just proclaim someone as anything before they get into the league. Bush was arguably the best prospect all time and ended up being a very average RB overall (good receiving back, poor runner). Better prospect =/= better player.

I guess we'll have to wait and see.

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1 minute ago, skywlker32 said:

Which is exactly my stance (and also why people don't generally use rookies in rankings).

...but doesn't that logic hold true for any RB? Le'Veon Bell and Todd Gurley could be abominations from here on out.

 

If you told me I could have any RB I wanted that is employed by the NFL right now, Saquon Barkley would absolutely go in the top 10. Sure it's a projection, but it's one I feel VERY confident in.

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14 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

...but doesn't that logic hold true for any RB? Le'Veon Bell and Todd Gurley could be abominations from here on out.

 

If you told me I could have any RB I wanted that is employed by the NFL right now, Saquon Barkley would absolutely go in the top 10. Sure it's a projection, but it's one I feel VERY confident in.

While the premise that any player could fall off a cliff is true, what he is referring to is that there is evidence of the ability to be good IN THE NFL.  The list of rookies who were expected to be dominant right away and failed to live up to expectations is long.  And many were running backs.

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1 hour ago, Superman(DH23) said:

While the premise that any player could fall off a cliff is true, what he is referring to is that there is evidence of the ability to be good IN THE NFL.  The list of rookies who were expected to be dominant right away and failed to live up to expectations is long.  And many were running backs.

But there is lots of evidence that rookie RBs can be in the upper echelon at their position from the get go. Fournette last year, Elliot a year before that, Adrian Peterson in ‘07(?). And that’s only including first round prospects and not guys like Alvin Kamara. It should also be mentioned for every Fournette type there is also a few Trent Richardson’s along the way. 

The point is taking the wait and see approach is kind of the safe way to go about it. The truth is Barkley could easily be a top 10 RB and set the league on fire; he has the ability to do so and we’ve seen it in the past. 

This is FootballsFuture. This site is based on projections. It’s not FootballsPresent. State your claims.

Edited by SmittyBacall
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