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Top 10 RB

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Superman(DH23)

Superman(DH23)

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

But there is lots of evidence that rookie RBs can be in the upper echelon at their position from the get go. Fournette last year, Elliot a year before that, Adrian Peterson in ‘07(?). And that’s only including first round prospects and not guys like Alvin Kamara. It should also be mentioned for every Fournette type there is also a few Trent Richardson’s along the way. 

The point is taking the wait and see approach is kind of the safe way to go about it. The truth is Barkley could easily be a top 10 RB and set the league on fire; he has the ability to do so and we’ve seen it in the past. 

This is FootballsFuture. This site is based on projections. It’s not FootballsPresent. State your claims.

Adrian Peterson is really the exception.  Yes he was the best rb in the nfl the moment he took the field, but that is not the norm.  You are talking about a HOFer, the best rb of his generation and maybe even a guy in the team photo for goat.  Rookie rbs do often find early success, but that success is not stepping in the league as the best rb in the nfl, and hasn't been done since Peterson.  This league still has Leveon Bell, David Johnson, Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliot, add in the Kareem Hunts, Alvin Kamaras, and Jordan Howards of the league and Barkley has a very tough road to be the best rb in the nfl or even top 5.

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SmittyBacall

SmittyBacall

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10 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Adrian Peterson is really the exception.  Yes he was the best rb in the nfl the moment he took the field, but that is not the norm.  You are talking about a HOFer, the best rb of his generation and maybe even a guy in the team photo for goat.  Rookie rbs do often find early success, but that success is not stepping in the league as the best rb in the nfl, and hasn't been done since Peterson.  This league still has Leveon Bell, David Johnson, Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliot, add in the Kareem Hunts, Alvin Kamaras, and Jordan Howards of the league and Barkley has a very tough road to be the best rb in the nfl or even top 5.

I’m not talking about being the best in the NFL. I’m talking about Top 10. Which Barkley will very likely be Week 1.

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Kmart128

Kmart128

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On 5/27/2018 at 3:36 PM, BleedTheClock said:

If rookies are allowed, Saquon Barkley is in the top 5 for me.

1. Todd Gurley

2. Le'Veon Bell

3. Ezekiel Elliot

4. Saquon Barkley

5. Leonard Fournette

^^^^

I think these are the best 5 guys. I know it's missing names that have put up better stats, but if I'm building a team, I take these RB's in this order. Sue me.

A guy that averaged 3.9 yards a carry over LeSean McCoy... C'mon man. Maybe in the future but not now

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BleedTheClock

BleedTheClock

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2 hours ago, marshawn lynch said:

A guy that averaged 3.9 yards a carry over LeSean McCoy... C'mon man. Maybe in the future but not now

Fournette's OL and supporting cast was hilariously bad. I still think he's a top 10 RB. Nobody faced more stacked boxes than Fournette He created more yardage than any RB I watched this season. Nobody seems to contextualize stats nowadays.

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skywlker32

skywlker32

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On 6/1/2018 at 4:03 PM, BleedTheClock said:

...but doesn't that logic hold true for any RB? Le'Veon Bell and Todd Gurley could be abominations from here on out.

 

If you told me I could have any RB I wanted that is employed by the NFL right now, Saquon Barkley would absolutely go in the top 10. Sure it's a projection, but it's one I feel VERY confident in.

The difference is that those guys like Bell and Gurley have showed something in an actual NFL game. While they could very well drop off, it is much less likely than a first round bust.

On 6/2/2018 at 8:28 AM, SmittyBacall said:

But there is lots of evidence that rookie RBs can be in the upper echelon at their position from the get go. Fournette last year, Elliot a year before that, Adrian Peterson in ‘07(?). And that’s only including first round prospects and not guys like Alvin Kamara. It should also be mentioned for every Fournette type there is also a few Trent Richardson’s along the way. 

The point is taking the wait and see approach is kind of the safe way to go about it. The truth is Barkley could easily be a top 10 RB and set the league on fire; he has the ability to do so and we’ve seen it in the past. 

This is FootballsFuture. This site is based on projections. It’s not FootballsPresent. State your claims.

RBs actually have the highest bust rate of any position at 46.9% over 25 years and 40% over 10 years, as well as top ten picks at 55.2% over 25 years and 50% over 10 years (source). While RBs sure can come out and have success early, it is the flip of a coin whether they will even have success at any point.

While Fournette looked promising last year, I sure wouldn't have him in my top 10 at this point (more likely 10-15) and McCaffrey sorely disappointed last year (also drafted top 10). Elliott looked good his first year, but he was also behind the league's best OL that year. Gurley was solid his first year, only to take a huge step back in year 2. Trent Richardson is an obvious bust. Spiller has failed to be much of anything aside from a roster spot. Those are your top 10 RBs over the last 10 years. All of them were supposed to be THE guy. Elliott is the only one to likely be a top 10 guy year 1. No one is stopping you from putting a guy in your top 10 before they step on the field, but it's based off of nothing really and ends up being very unlikely.

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SmittyBacall

SmittyBacall

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16 minutes ago, skywlker32 said:

The difference is that those guys like Bell and Gurley have showed something in an actual NFL game. While they could very well drop off, it is much less likely than a first round bust.

RBs actually have the highest bust rate of any position at 46.9% over 25 years and 40% over 10 years, as well as top ten picks at 55.2% over 25 years and 50% over 10 years (source). While RBs sure can come out and have success early, it is the flip of a coin whether they will even have success at any point.

While Fournette looked promising last year, I sure wouldn't have him in my top 10 at this point (more likely 10-15) and McCaffrey sorely disappointed last year (also drafted top 10). Elliott looked good his first year, but he was also behind the league's best OL that year. Gurley was solid his first year, only to take a huge step back in year 2. Trent Richardson is an obvious bust. Spiller has failed to be much of anything aside from a roster spot. Those are your top 10 RBs over the last 10 years. All of them were supposed to be THE guy. Elliott is the only one to likely be a top 10 guy year 1. No one is stopping you from putting a guy in your top 10 before they step on the field, but it's based off of nothing really and ends up being very unlikely.

It’s not based off of nothing. Barkley is the best RB prospect since Adrian Peterson for a reason. He’s a generational talent. Spiller, Richardson, and McCaffery are no where near the talent Barkley is. 

Basing your argument solely on their mathematical probabilty in which X runningback will bust completely disregards the individuality of each prospect. Comparing a scat-back type who’s undersized and prominently a receiving threat (McCaffery, for example) to a true workhorse with otherwordly ability and athleticism is proof enough. They’re just not the same player. Of course Barkley could bust, but my money (aka my projection) is on the opposite. 

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skywlker32

skywlker32

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1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

It’s not based off of nothing. Barkley is the best RB prospect since Adrian Peterson for a reason. He’s a generational talent. Spiller, Richardson, and McCaffery are no where near the talent Barkley is. 

Basing your argument solely on their mathematical probabilty in which X runningback will bust completely disregards the individuality of each prospect. Comparing a scat-back type who’s undersized and prominently a receiving threat (McCaffery, for example) to a true workhorse with otherwordly ability and athleticism is proof enough. They’re just not the same player. Of course Barkley could bust, but my money (aka my projection) is on the opposite. 

The point of showing the percentages is because a player drafted in the first round is expected to be a solid starter and a top 10 pick is expected to be a top talent. While we know now that McCaffrey is mostly a receiving back, that's not what was expected of him, or else he wouldn't have been drafted where he was. Richardson, by the way, was supposed to be a generational talent. He was most definitely expected to be a game changer. This happens every year with players. If you want a prime example of how predraft analysis can be useless across the board. Look at Aaron Curry from the 2009 draft at LB. He was supposed to be by far the safest pick that you could make. He was out of the league after 3 years.

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SmittyBacall

SmittyBacall

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19 hours ago, skywlker32 said:

The point of showing the percentages is because a player drafted in the first round is expected to be a solid starter and a top 10 pick is expected to be a top talent. While we know now that McCaffrey is mostly a receiving back, that's not what was expected of him, or else he wouldn't have been drafted where he was. Richardson, by the way, was supposed to be a generational talent. He was most definitely expected to be a game changer. This happens every year with players. If you want a prime example of how predraft analysis can be useless across the board. Look at Aaron Curry from the 2009 draft at LB. He was supposed to be by far the safest pick that you could make. He was out of the league after 3 years.

McCaffery wasn't drafted that high to be a traditional workhorse. He was drafted that high because his skillset as a match-up nightmare was highly coveted. He's been exactly what the Panthers have expected.

And that's all fine and dandy. That's all information I already knew. Yes, good prospects can bust. Curry was still not as good of a prospect as Barkley. There is a reason New York didn't trade out of that spot for the kings ransom. I guess we will have to wait it out and see for ourselves. 

http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/nfl/12198/christian-mccaffrey

 

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Jonathan Stewart said Christian McCaffrey is "pretty unstoppable" running routes out of the backfield.

"There’s not going to be anybody in this league that can cover him 1-on-1," Stewart continued. "(OC Mike) Shula has definitely found some pretty good ways to put him in positions to win." Stewart's comments align with early camp reports; ESPN's David Newton wrote McCaffrey has been peppered with "short passes and screens." Stewart will likely keep most of his early-down role, but the Panthers clearly plan for McCaffrey to be heavily involved as well.

 

 

 

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ESPN's David Newton reports the Panthers are peppering Christian McCaffrey with "short passes and screens" in practice.

After observing on Thursday, Newton reports it's "obvious" the Panthers have "big plans" for their first-round pick. Per Newton, McCaffrey is "so fast on his cuts that it leaves (defenders) grasping for air." McCaffrey is an exceptional runner, but it's become clear the Panthers view the passing game as the best way for him to make a rookie impact. It will be a big change for an offense that hasn't been big on screens or running back targets under Cam Newton.

 

 
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Jakuvious

Jakuvious

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On 6/2/2018 at 8:55 AM, vikingsrule said:

Dalvin Cook needs more mention. He was leading the league in rushing when he got hurt. Add in a better QB situation, he shouldn't have an issue surpassing 1200 rushing yards.

Yin-Yang already replied on a basic level about this, but Cook had 354 rushing yards (444 total yards) in a little over 3.5 games. In the first 3 alone Kareem Hunt had 401 rushing yards (538 total yards.)

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