Hunter2_1 Posted June 5, 2018 Share Posted June 5, 2018 22 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: It’s not based off of nothing. Barkley is the best RB prospect since Adrian Peterson for a reason. He’s a generational talent. Spiller, Richardson, and McCaffery are no where near the talent Barkley is. Basing your argument solely on their mathematical probabilty in which X runningback will bust completely disregards the individuality of each prospect. Comparing a scat-back type who’s undersized and prominently a receiving threat (McCaffery, for example) to a true workhorse with otherwordly ability and athleticism is proof enough. They’re just not the same player. Of course Barkley could bust, but my money (aka my projection) is on the opposite. He will be running behind a poor OL though. I don't think he'll get the opportunity to show how good he really is for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter2_1 Posted June 5, 2018 Share Posted June 5, 2018 Going to give it a go; Bell Gurley Elliot Kamara D Johnson Hunt McCoy Fournette Howard Ingram/Gordon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted June 5, 2018 Share Posted June 5, 2018 39 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said: He will be running behind a poor OL though. I don't think he'll get the opportunity to show how good he really is for a while. The thread host is just looking for the "Top 10 RBs". I interpreted that as a runningbacks natural talent and ability. Whether or not he's running behind a poor line he's still Saquon Barkley. I wouldn't hold a poor supporting cast against him. New York also added two huge upgrades in Nate Solder and Will Hernandez. That should also help a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFlaccoSeagulls Posted June 5, 2018 Share Posted June 5, 2018 My top 10 in no order because I don't want to rank them Ezekial Elliott LeVeon Bell Todd Gurley Alex Collins Dalvin Cook Kareem Hunt Lesean McCoy Melvin Gordon Alvin Kamara Jordan Howard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted June 5, 2018 Share Posted June 5, 2018 On 6/3/2018 at 10:39 PM, BleedTheClock said: Fournette's OL and supporting cast was hilariously bad. I still think he's a top 10 RB. Nobody faced more stacked boxes than Fournette He created more yardage than any RB I watched this season. Nobody seems to contextualize stats nowadays. Fournette ranked 5th at percentage of attempts facing 8+ defenders in the box at exactly 50%. Coincidentally, one of the four people that is higher on the list is his former teammate Chris Ivory at 50.89% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted June 5, 2018 Share Posted June 5, 2018 6 hours ago, freeman+coleman said: Where the hell is Freeman? lol who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted June 5, 2018 Share Posted June 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Danger said: lol who? Devonta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted June 5, 2018 Share Posted June 5, 2018 Just now, SmittyBacall said: Devonta. OH, wow I was actually joking because I thought he was talking about Royce. My bad. I actually forgot about Devonta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedTheClock Posted June 5, 2018 Share Posted June 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Danger said: Fournette ranked 5th at percentage of attempts facing 8+ defenders in the box at exactly 50%. Coincidentally, one of the four people that is higher on the list is his former teammate Chris Ivory at 50.89% darn. I thought I nailed that statistic. Are you sure? I know a few months ago someone posted a stat that had Fournette facing 8 men in the box somewhere in the 80-89% range where Kamara did the same at 17%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted June 5, 2018 Share Posted June 5, 2018 18 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said: darn. I thought I nailed that statistic. Are you sure? I know a few months ago someone posted a stat that had Fournette facing 8 men in the box somewhere in the 80-89% range where Kamara did the same at 17%. I think that was me, but you're misremembering some of the details. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing#percent-eight-defenders Kamara statistic is spot on though. *Fournette: is 48.51% but still 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakuvious Posted June 5, 2018 Share Posted June 5, 2018 I've never found the number of defenders in the box stat to be particularly useful for crediting or discrediting RBs. At least in the NFL nowadays, that has far more to do with offensive formation and personnel than anything else. The number of defenders in the box is largely just a product of offensive formation. If you run 22 personnel the box will always be stacked. Doesn't matter who the RB is, doesn't matter who the QB is, it will be. Max paranoia from the defense against the pass would still be just two deep safeties and a corner on the one WR. On the flip side, if you're in 10 or 11 personnel, no team is stacking the box unless it's 3rd and 1 or something, and they think the offense is just trying to clear the box for a run. Even the more in between personnel groupings, like 12 or 21, it's honestly going to have as much if not more to do with defensive scheme preferences than the opposing RB. A team like KC or Seattle that's heavy in cover 1 or cover 3 will probably have 8 in the box against 1 RB and 2 TEs regardless of the RB, because their SS is in their box by default anyway. A cover 2 team wouldn't because they default to keeping both safeties back, and the two corners outside doesn't give them 8 people to have in the box. This is why the guys at the top of that list aren't the best players, they're the power ones. And the guys at the bottom of the list aren't the worst, they're your versatile and receiving backs. Because offensive coordinators are more likely to give the power backs heavier formations, while they're getting their receiving backs in space or using them in WR heavy formations. Box advantage would be a little more representative of difficulty. It doesn't matter much if there's 8 in the box, if the defense overloaded the offense's right but the RB ran left. The box could be loaded but the RB could still have a very advantageous situation in terms of blockers versus defenders. On the flip side a team could have only 6 in the box, but if the RB has no TEs or FBs blocking for him, he's being asked to make a guy miss to make anything happen there. I do think the stat is a testament to Jacksonville's OC not doing him any favors, though. Fournette has power but he shouldn't be used as a power back like Jonathan Stewart or Derrick Henry, IMO. He has the speed and agility to be dangerous in space too. Reid is really good about it with Hunt, sometimes showcasing him as a power back, sometimes getting him single back looks with a spread out defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GamedayGuru Posted June 6, 2018 Share Posted June 6, 2018 16 hours ago, Jakuvious said: I've never found the number of defenders in the box stat to be particularly useful for crediting or discrediting RBs. At least in the NFL nowadays, that has far more to do with offensive formation and personnel than anything else. The number of defenders in the box is largely just a product of offensive formation. If you run 22 personnel the box will always be stacked. Doesn't matter who the RB is, doesn't matter who the QB is, it will be. Max paranoia from the defense against the pass would still be just two deep safeties and a corner on the one WR. On the flip side, if you're in 10 or 11 personnel, no team is stacking the box unless it's 3rd and 1 or something, and they think the offense is just trying to clear the box for a run. Even the more in between personnel groupings, like 12 or 21, it's honestly going to have as much if not more to do with defensive scheme preferences than the opposing RB. A team like KC or Seattle that's heavy in cover 1 or cover 3 will probably have 8 in the box against 1 RB and 2 TEs regardless of the RB, because their SS is in their box by default anyway. A cover 2 team wouldn't because they default to keeping both safeties back, and the two corners outside doesn't give them 8 people to have in the box. This is why the guys at the top of that list aren't the best players, they're the power ones. And the guys at the bottom of the list aren't the worst, they're your versatile and receiving backs. Because offensive coordinators are more likely to give the power backs heavier formations, while they're getting their receiving backs in space or using them in WR heavy formations. Box advantage would be a little more representative of difficulty. It doesn't matter much if there's 8 in the box, if the defense overloaded the offense's right but the RB ran left. The box could be loaded but the RB could still have a very advantageous situation in terms of blockers versus defenders. On the flip side a team could have only 6 in the box, but if the RB has no TEs or FBs blocking for him, he's being asked to make a guy miss to make anything happen there. I do think the stat is a testament to Jacksonville's OC not doing him any favors, though. Fournette has power but he shouldn't be used as a power back like Jonathan Stewart or Derrick Henry, IMO. He has the speed and agility to be dangerous in space too. Reid is really good about it with Hunt, sometimes showcasing him as a power back, sometimes getting him single back looks with a spread out defense. Thank you! And it isn't easier to run on 7 in the box if u have 1 less blocker than if it were 8 in the box. A better stat would be blockers vs defenders. It's not like these offensive coordinators are coming out with 4 WRs and seeing the box is stacked with 8 and being like hey let' switch to a run. BUT if u have a terrible QB ur gonna see more stacked boxes than if u didn't so I can see it having some effect to an extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scout Posted June 8, 2018 Author Share Posted June 8, 2018 1. Bell 2. Gurley 3. Zeke 4. Kamara 5. Hunt 6. DJ 7. McCoy 8. Barkley 9. Freeman 10. Dalvin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, Scout said: 1. Bell 2. Gurley 3. Zeke 4. Kamara 5. Hunt 6. DJ 7. McCoy 8. Barkley 9. Freeman 10. Dalvin I think David Johnson's better than Hunt and probably Kamara. If he replicates his 2016 season he's probably No. 1 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakuvious Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 2 hours ago, AlNFL19 said: I think David Johnson's better than Hunt and probably Kamara. If he replicates his 2016 season he's probably No. 1 for me. If healthy, David Johnson could definitely argue for #1, but he's in that weird place where everyone kind of has to decide how much faith they have in his recovery when they rank him. I wouldn't blame anyone for ranking him just about anywhere, because someone putting him at #1 probably thinks he recovers fully, while someone putting him outside the top 10 probably just thinks he won't be back to his old self yet. Hard to say, unpredictable from our end of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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