Turtle’s 2018 Redskins stat predictions

[turtle28]

3 hours ago, Woz said:

I was just reading over @MKnight82's breakdown and I noticed something.

@turtle28 - do you really project this defense to get 53 sacks? Going back to 2002, the best the Redskins have managed is 42 (which was last season)? That would be a 26% improvement year over year (and that was the best performance for the Redskins since the NFL had 32 teams). Over the same timeframe, only 22 teams have managed 50+ sacks (32 teams across 16 seasons = 512 attempts, so only 4.3% of possible defenses).

You might want to double check your numbers there.

 

 

No I don’t, I was just thinking of what a player could get. Obviously I would take some away from the ILBs and the back up DL to get down into the 40s. I didn’t add them up at all.

[turtle28]

7 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

His career high is 4,042 passing yards, 2nd highest was 3,502.  He won't even sniff 4,400, no chance of that happening.  The most passing TDs in his career is 26, 2nd was 23.  We'd be lucky if he throws 20-22 this season.  

I don't think this is unreasonable, I would be quite happy with this.  

This would be career highs in rushing and receiving yards for CT.  Probably unlikely, especially since I expect our offense to have less yardage under Alex Smith.  

This is optimistic but I would love to see this.  

This is right in line with his 2016 production, its definitely possible.  

I'd like to point out that you spread the entirety of Smith's 4,450 production over the players you've listed, and there will definitely be some lower tier guys who take around 200-300+ yards of it during the season.  I think this is where you're too high.  I think Richardson will be a gimmicky speed threat who will have a few good games but disappear often.  He'll finish with around 500-600 yards.  

Well this would be the 2nd best year of his career, so its pretty optimistic.  I feel like he's due for a random healthy season though so I'll go along with this.  

Vernon Davis has had 500+ receiving yards both seasons with the Redskins.  I think this prediction is too low.  Especially considering he's the only receiving target on the roster that has played with Alex Smith before.  

Ya, you know where I stand on this.  If he sniffs 10 sacks he'll pile them up in 3-4 games and then be invisible the remainder of the season.  

Seems reasonable.  He's had 4 sacks two years in a row.  

Would love to see him pushing up around the 8 sack mark.  This seems like a conservative estimate.  

Sure.

I think 3 sacks is unlikely but possible.  I think he'll be occupying double teams more than getting to the Qb.  

Zach Brown will steal a lot of his tackles.  This one has no chance of happening IMO.  

This one has a chance if he stays healthy.  

I don't think this guy makes the 53 this year.  

This would be right in line with his production last year.  I'm hoping with Allen and Payne that Kerrigan will be the most to benefit.  I'll one up you here, Kerrigan goes for 15 sacks this year!

Sad but true.

I didn't think he gets this many tackles, but he's consistently in the 60s the past few years.  So 70 is a little high but not unreasonable.  I'm going to say you're wrong here though, as our improved front 7 gets to the ball carrier quicker and cuts down the tackles for our secondary players.  I'm guessing 55 for Mr. Norman.  4 INTs sounds reasonable.

Sounds optimistic but I'm hoping this kid steps up big.  I'll go along with this.  

Pretty much in-line with his career averages.

This dude gets hurt in training camp and never steps on the field for us.  Book it.  

Sounds good to me.

I'll go along with this too.

I did most of these projections off the players staying mostly healthy. I’m not in the business of predicting injuries but I’m sure they will happen because it’s football. Still, I can’t say for sure that any of these players will definitely get injured and how much time they will miss.

I pretty much went with what Richardson did last year and shaved a little bit off because Doctson, Crowder, Reed and Thompson will dip into the stats he had from last year.

For the defenders: 

I gave Payne 3 sacks because that’s usually what we got out of Cofield and I think they are similar players. Perhaps he gets one less, but I think Payne will play a lot of snaps like Cofield used to, not like how little of snaps Hood gave us the last two years.  I think Payne is more than just a replacement/upgrade for Hood. I think he’s a 3 down player.

What I did for Foster was looked at where he was in tackles for last year and then prorated that out and in 2016 he had 124 tackles and 1 sack.

I think Shaun Dion Hamilton was drafted to be our nickle LB and to fill the role that Cravens had for us in 2015. I most certainly think he makes the team and plays a major role when we are facing teams that pass a majority of the time or when we have teams at 3rd and long.

For Norman, again I went with the tackle numbers he usually gets. Perhaps he gets a little lower but I’ll be shocked if it’s that much lower.

With Scandrick - again I don’t predict injuries - so I went with what I thought he’d do if healthy.

[oldman9er]

6 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Yeah, I’m not sure why Ace doesn’t think Alex will pass for near or over 4,000 yds again. Gruden is a pass happy coach and the Redskins have a lot of receiving weapons. 

There’s way Guice gets close to 2,000 yards and 21 TDs for a RB? I want those drugs!

Again, Gruden isn’t going to run the ball 300 times, let alone the 400 he’d need to do for a RB to get 2,000.

 

Not that I agree on Guice hitting 2K, but maybe just maybe with this added personnel, Jay will change up the approach.

With Alex now reading defenses pre-snap, and Guice as the grinder, maybe the duo will show Jay the yellow brick road to more balance. So long as the wins come, why should Jay complain. Like discussed months ago, all it really takes are 2 more runs per game for Washington to be middle of the pack of the League in rush attempts per game. I can see 2-5 more runs per game, and if it's 5, then we're talking top 3 in teams with most run attempts per game. 

Alex has little interest in personal stats, and is very willing to hand off 30 x a game, if it is working. 

[Woz]

3 minutes ago, oldman9er said:

Not that I agree on Guice hitting 2K, but maybe just maybe with this added personnel, Jay will change up the approach.

That's awfully optimistic.

[turtle28]

3 hours ago, oldman9er said:

 

Not that I agree on Guice hitting 2K, but maybe just maybe with this added personnel, Jay will change up the approach.

With Alex now reading defenses pre-snap, and Guice as the grinder, maybe the duo will show Jay the yellow brick road to more balance. So long as the wins come, why should Jay complain. Like discussed months ago, all it really takes are 2 more runs per game for Washington to be middle of the pack of the League in rush attempts per game. I can see 2-5 more runs per game, and if it's 5, then we're talking top 3 in teams with most run attempts per game. 

Alex has little interest in personal stats, and is very willing to hand off 30 x a game, if it is working. 

In 2011 when Andy Dalton was a rookie, and Jay Gruden still had Cedric Benson he rushed the ball 402 times between all 3 running backs. 

In 2015 when Cousins was in his first year as a starter we rushed the ball 398 times between the top 3 backs and the fullback, including when Matt Jones got injured and Pierre Thomas filled in for him the last month of the season.

And those are the two times when Gruden rushed near or just over 400 times. I don’t see any of that being greatly changing, even with Guice.

Jay Gruden is an ex-QB, he’s always going to be pass heavy. That’s why I don’t agree with anyone who thinks that Alex Smith is going to have the same amount of pass attempts that he had last year or less like in the other years of his career.

I fully believe Alex will attempt more passes than he ever has in his career -  over 530 passes - and just because of that alone and with our weapons, he will have a career year.

[oldman9er]

1 hour ago, turtle28 said:

I fully believe Alex will attempt more passes than he ever has in his career -  over 530 passes - and just because that alone and with our weapons, he will haves career year.

Mmm okay. It will be fun to see how it all goes!