Jimmy Graham and Tight End Alignment

[HyponGrey]

6 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

Sorry I just can't believe that to be true the way Gute constructed the roster. If we play Graham that much in the slot vs outside and chose to keep Cobb over Nelson that's flat out poor GM work. Cobb is a downright bad outside WR.

At least there's something we agree on. 

[Jaegybomb]

55 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

No we didn't, Graham + Wilk = Jordy's 2018 salary.

 

44 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

It's dumb to take the salary that actually was on the roster over one that wasn't? OK.

Yes, to the point where I hope you are trolling for your sake.

[SSG]

On 5/27/2018 at 11:15 AM, cannondale said:

Graham would cause issues against a CB as well, but unless the stats say differently, I would rather have him matched up against a safety or LB inside vs a CB on the outside

I agree.  I'd prefer him matched up against LBs or safeties as I don't view him as that big of a match up issue on the outside against starting caliber CBs.   While he's bigger I  personally believe people are fooling themselves if they think he's going to be able to run by CBs when he couldn't run by LBs this last year.   He looked like a shell of his former self struggling to get separation.  He was virtually useless to their offense when they weren't in the red zone.  

Hopefully his issues were due to the early season ankle injury and not the effects of the ruptured patellar tendon catching up to him (which is an injury that typical severely zaps a players athleticism).  

[SSG]

1 hour ago, Green19 said:

Based on last year’s sample size? Adams, Cobb Lewis and graham.

Nelson didn’t make up for Bennett. I think Lewis/graham will be a better more consistent pair then Bennett /Nelson.

Id also hope McCarthy runs more England size two tight end sets. Plus given the body types we are bring in and drafting... they just want to have a basketball team for pass catchers.

If we're looking at just last year, I'd much rather have Adams, Nelson, Cobb and Bennett.  Jimmy Graham was a 9 yards per catch TE who struggled to get separation.  Lewis also had severe limitations as bordered on almost useless as a consistent receiver.  While Jordy had his issues, he was our best and most productive WR when AR12 was on the field.  Jimmy Graham's struggles weren't the result of bad QB play IMO.

IMO, going into last year we had substantially more talent at WR and TE given the 2016 production.  This year our production is based solely on hope that Lewis and Graham are substantially better players than they were last year.  After all, its one of the oldest TE pairs in the league.  

[Green19]

1 hour ago, SSG said:

If we're looking at just last year, I'd much rather have Adams, Nelson, Cobb and Bennett.  Jimmy Graham was a 9 yards per catch TE who struggled to get separation.  Lewis also had severe limitations as bordered on almost useless as a consistent receiver.  While Jordy had his issues, he was our best and most productive WR when AR12 was on the field.  Jimmy Graham's struggles weren't the result of bad QB play IMO.

IMO, going into last year we had substantially more talent at WR and TE given the 2016 production.  This year our production is based solely on hope that Lewis and Graham are substantially better players than they were last year.  After all, its one of the oldest TE pairs in the league.  

Last year graham and Nelson where the same. Terrible outside the red zone, elite in  it. As far as Nelson was the best we for gb on the field... no, even with Rodgers. Productive, also debatable. Adams was better with Rodgers and with out.

Speed leaves with age. GB is banking on size. Graham and Lewis have that. I’m sure they know they aren’t going to set the world on fire with speed from that position. The youth at WR is were speed will come from. But when they get into the red zone they want basketball players.

You say we had better talent at both WR and TE. I don’t see much difference. Graham = Nelson and Lewis = Bennett. But honestly I’d take Lewis over Bennett. Better blocker and I’m willing to bet he will be better catching the ball. Remember he has been with Bortles the last 5 years.

I just don’t see losing Nelson as that big of a deal. He was elite in the red zone because he was on the same page as Rodgers. I think graham’s size and ability with make him the same with Rodgers. Plus added bonus Rodgers won’t pass up an open young guy to just force it to Nelson. He might spread it around.

 

** Jimmy Graham was a 9 yards per catch TE who struggled to get separation.**

Also this ^^ is exactly a description of Jordy last year too. Again same guy.

[SSG]

1 minute ago, Green19 said:

Last year graham and Nelson where the same. Terrible outside the red zone, elite in  it. As far as Nelson was the best we for gb on the field... no, even with Rodgers. Productive, also debatable. Adams was better with Rodgers and with out.

Speed leaves with age. GB is banking on size. Graham and Lewis have that. I’m sure they know they aren’t going to set the world on fire with speed from that position. The youth at WR is were speed will come from. But when they get into the red zone they want basketball players.

You say we had better talent at both WR and TE. I don’t see much difference. Graham = Nelson and Lewis = Bennett. But honestly I’d take Lewis over Bennett. Better blocker and I’m willing to bet he will be better catching the ball. Remember he has been with Bortles the last 5 years.

I just don’t see losing Nelson as that big of a deal. He was elite in the red zone because he was on the same page as Rodgers. I think graham’s size and ability with make him the same with Rodgers. Plus added bonus Rodgers won’t pass up an open young guy to just force it to Nelson. He might spread it around.

Jordy Nelson lead this team in TDs and yards per game prior to the injury.  In 2016, he was BY FAR our best and most productive receiver.  Yes, both Jordy and Graham had the issues last year, Jordy's biggest issue was QB play.  Graham was utterly useless when not in the redone despite having his QB playing at a MVP level.  I    personally believe that the patellar tendon rupture has caught up to him and that he's going to be no where near the caliber of player some are expecting him to be. I'd wager that he doesn't come anywhere close to replacing Jordy Nelson's 2016 production.  

We'll have to agree to disagree.  Lewis is a great blocker who is almost useless in the receiving game.  IMO Bennett is an entirely different caliber of receiver.  Lewis is among the league's older TEs and hasn't been productive in the passing game in 6 or 7 years.  IMO the opinion of Bennett has been soured with hindsight, but he was a substantially better all around player when he signed with GB.  

This offseason is looking like a mirror of last year's but with substantially less talent in the WR core (Jordy was coming off one of the best seasons of his career and Adams just had a career year).  Signing 2 old TEs who's best seasons are clearly long behind them.  

I don't mind the Lewis because it helps our running game.  Jimmy Graham is as bad of a blocker at TE as the league has too offer.  He's a substantial downgrade from Bennett in that aspect as he's just a big, slow WR.

 

[Green19]

35 minutes ago, SSG said:

Jordy Nelson lead this team in TDs and yards per game prior to the injury.  In 2016, he was BY FAR our best and most productive receiver.

I guess it’s how you want to account for Jordy Nelson missing a game. Personally I hold availability high because if you aren’t on the field what good are you to your team.

So over 6 weeks. Adams: 339 yds, 5 TDS. Nelson: 290 yds, 6 TDs. That’s a 56.5 yds per game for Adams and 48.3 for Nelson. It goes up to 58 if you don’t count the injury missed game. Still only a 1.5 yd increase. He was not “by far” the most productive. Adams was every bit the WR that Nelson was.

As for Lewis, I agree Bennett league history as a pass catcher is better. But he has also been with better QBs and pass first offenses. I’m banking on the idea Rodgers will unlock his pass catching ability more. I wouldnt be surprised, even early on, if he doesn’t snake some red zone TDs from graham.

Again I think GB feels fine between 20s with Adams, Cobb, Allison, and the running back. I think they want to be deadly in the red zone. That’s why they are going crazy with size/length. And if they become an 80% + TD making offense in the red zone they will be a much better receiving group. 

 

[St Vince]

1 hour ago, SSG said:

Jordy Nelson lead this team in TDs and yards per game prior to the injury.  In 2016, he was BY FAR our best and most productive receiver.  Yes, both Jordy and Graham had the issues last year, Jordy's biggest issue was QB play.  Graham was utterly useless when not in the redone despite having his QB playing at a MVP level.  I    personally believe that the patellar tendon rupture has caught up to him and that he's going to be no where near the caliber of player some are expecting him to be. I'd wager that he doesn't come anywhere close to replacing Jordy Nelson's 2016 production.  

We'll have to agree to disagree.  Lewis is a great blocker who is almost useless in the receiving game.  IMO Bennett is an entirely different caliber of receiver.  Lewis is among the league's older TEs and hasn't been productive in the passing game in 6 or 7 years.  IMO the opinion of Bennett has been soured with hindsight, but he was a substantially better all around player when he signed with GB.  

This offseason is looking like a mirror of last year's but with substantially less talent in the WR core (Jordy was coming off one of the best seasons of his career and Adams just had a career year).  Signing 2 old TEs who's best seasons are clearly long behind them.  

I don't mind the Lewis because it helps our running game.  Jimmy Graham is as bad of a blocker at TE as the league has too offer.  He's a substantial downgrade from Bennett in that aspect as he's just a big, slow WR.

I didn't pay much attention to Graham last year but from what I heard his struggles were due to how he was being utilized. They say the Hawks tried make him a blocking TE and that's not what he is. In this offense he'll be used like JMike. I think he'll create mismatches for a lot of opposing defenses.

[craig]

On 5/27/2018 at 6:18 AM, AlexGreen#20 said:

I'm arguing that anyone who is trying to argue that having Geronimo Allison at WR is just fine because Graham is going to be taking snaps split out is crazy. You can argue that having Geronimo Allison at WR is fine because we have Aaron Rodgers, but that's not the argument that seems to be being made.

It's a Mike McCarthy/Aaron Rodgers offense. So long as those two are running the show, we're probably not going to run many snaps with dead targets or guys who can't at least threaten big plays. 

I see two somewhat different points made. 

One is that MM routinely splits out TE a bunch already, so there's nothing novel about splitting out Graham.  I also agree that Graham will predominantly be inside/slot rather than boundary/wide.  There can be exceptions, for sure.  AG makes a rather 2nd point, on whether Graham will make Allison fine as the 4th guy.  Just as MM has used 1TE/3WR sets with TE-spread out often n the past, so he will again with Graham.  And the effectiveness of the 3rd WR will matter. 

While the sets may be the same, graham is not the same guy as Kendricks, RR, or Quarless.  And he may command a higher percentage of the throws, leaving fewer for WR #3.

Leader well noted that they'll have lots of possibilities, lots of flexibility.  Lewis will help with that.  But I agree that while the Lewis/Graham 2TE sets will be used, often, I doubt it's a predominant set.  Somebody suggested <40% of snaps, and I'd tend to agree.  

But, who knows, we'll see what works.  The caliber of performance by WR #3 will be a factor, though.  If guys are contributing in that role, perhaps use of personnel group will increase.  But if the 3rd WR can't make any plays or stretch the defense in a productive way, the use of 3WR sets may decline.  

Hope is that they use a lot of of 3WR sets, because they are working well.  

[Leader]

Lewis did what JAX required of him in a run first offense: block - and I suspect that will be his "first option" role with the GBPs. We have Graham and Kendricks to pull down the bulk of TE receptions.

Lewis's 2017 receiving stats with JAX: 24 receptions / 318 yards / 5 TDs.

Is he too old? Well Benjamin Watson was in a more pass oriented offense (NOLA) is 37 years old. Last years stats? 61receptions / 522yards / 4TDs. So apparently it can be done by the old geezers. 

Does Lewis present a problem as a receiver? We'll anybody who's as "big and wide" as this guy will give DBs/LBs problems.

I like the signing. Think it gives our TE position versatility and challenges for any defense - and dont see it thru a prism of "what does that do for the WR position"

Thats a different kettle of fish entirely IMO and with the inclusion of the rookie WR plus advancements by Allison, Davis, Yancey and alike - I think we'll be just fine.

Allison's not the bum some here are making him out to be. All he needs IMO is greater skill at hand/body placement and fighting off a pressing CB. He's been too lax letting the CB "route him" off the LOS - thereby gaining the positional defensive advantage. In any case, I'm eager to see the "tall & fast" rookies perform.

 

[Shanedorf]

Rodgers made some interesting comments about Davante getting more snaps in the slot this year, echoing MM's comments about Big Men running down the middle of the field:

“I think his role could change in the ways we moved Jordy around inside. Getting a big body inside,” Rodgers said after Tuesday’s OTA practice. “Having Jimmy (Graham) and Davante, a couple of big bodies inside. He could get some snaps inside.”

When Adams takes some snaps in the slot and Graham is at TE- that suggests we'll see (2) towers on the outside. With Allison, Moore, ESB, MSV, Clark and Yancey battling for those snaps in the offseason.

It also shines a little more light on why Jordy was considered expendable. If you are planning to play both Cobb and Adams in the slot - there simply was no role for Nelson on the 2018 Packers. It also gives the Packers another way to shake Adams free from the number 1 CB

“He’s probably going to be looked at as more of the go-to guy from outside the building,” Rodgers said. “I throw it to the open guy, and he happens to be open a lot.”

[Packerraymond]

21 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Rodgers made some interesting comments about Davante getting more snaps in the slot this year, echoing MM's comments about Big Men running down the middle of the field:

“I think his role could change in the ways we moved Jordy around inside. Getting a big body inside,” Rodgers said after Tuesday’s OTA practice. “Having Jimmy (Graham) and Davante, a couple of big bodies inside. He could get some snaps inside.”

When Adams takes some snaps in the slot and Graham is at TE- that suggests we'll see (2) towers on the outside. With Allison, Moore, ESB, MSV, Clark and Yancey battling for those snaps in the offseason.

It also shines a little more light on why Jordy was considered expendable. If you are planning to play both Cobb and Adams in the slot - there simply was no role for Nelson on the 2018 Packers. It also gives the Packers another way to shake Adams free from the number 1 CB

“He’s probably going to be looked at as more of the go-to guy from outside the building,” Rodgers said. “I throw it to the open guy, and he happens to be open a lot.”

Sorry but none of that makes any sense. You say this is why Jordy was expendable in 2018 then list guys like MVS and Yancey as guys who'd play outside in this scenario. 2018 Jordy is a worse option than those guys? Absolutely not.

The only way there wasn't much place for 2018 Jordy is if Graham plays a lot of outside WR. If we plan to play him a bunch in the slot, Cobb should've been the one cut. 

[Shanedorf]

2 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

2018 Jordy is a worse option than those guys? Absolutely not.

Jordy can't win consistently outside anymore and the slot role is well-covered by Cobb and now Adams. That's why it made sense to move on.

Some fans feel differently, but the Packers front office did their film review and came to their conclusion

Here's what McGinn wrote in his season-ending review:  "There just weren’t enough big plays. After averaging 21 receptions for 20+ yards in his last three full seasons Nelson had only 4 in 2017" "He couldn’t beat press coverage or separate downfield. He also developed a disturbing habit of falling down for little or no reason when the ball arrived. His average gain after the catch of 2.30 was the lowest of his career; on 67.9% of his 53 catches he gained two or fewer yards post-catch" 

When the Packers had star outside WRs - they attacked the perimeter relentlessly. Back shoulder and outside balls were AR's forte and it made it very hard on the CBs / defenses to handle it. Over time the roster and the game have both changed

Now the Packers are shifting (slightly) from the full perimeter attack and trying their best pass catchers ( Graham and Adams) in the middle of the field - which is consistent with the repeated messages from the HC (and the rules changes from the league). When the draftees get up to speed,  then the Packers will emphasize attacking the perimeter with greater frequency. Moving Adams "the ankle-breaker" around is how you get him a free release, something they picked up on when Jordy was out with his ACL

Of course we'll still see Davante and Jimmy Graham lined up outside plenty, but it was interesting to hear AR talking about a greater slot role for Davante in 2018.

I'd agree that Jordy will be better than the draft pick WRs in August and September, but December/January is a different story. Old legs die late in the season and Nelson's legs died late in 2017. The Packers saw this and reacted accordingly . The young WRs will gain from playing time and the Packers will reap the rewards of making the tough decisions about the WR crew for 2018 and beyond. Getting Adams some slot time also helps the Packers solidify their decision about Cobb's future as well.

[Dubz41]

19 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Jordy can't win consistently outside anymore and the slot role is well-covered by Cobb and now Adams. That's why it made sense to move on.

Some fans feel differently, but the Packers front office did their film review and came to their conclusion

Here's what McGinn wrote in his season-ending review:  "There just weren’t enough big plays. After averaging 21 receptions for 20+ yards in his last three full seasons Nelson had only 4 in 2017" "He couldn’t beat press coverage or separate downfield. He also developed a disturbing habit of falling down for little or no reason when the ball arrived. His average gain after the catch of 2.30 was the lowest of his career; on 67.9% of his 53 catches he gained two or fewer yards post-catch" 

 

This is why the Packers are moving on without him. No more YAC.  It's like when a RB stops going up the middle and wants to 'bounce' everything outside- it's a sign that they are done.

[Jaegybomb]

or that he's diving for wildly inaccurate throws instead of catching stuff in stride. Everyone writing Jordy off because of half a season with Hundley still baffles me.