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Which current long-term (5+ years) head coach will get fired first?

Head Coaches  

91 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will get fired first?

    • Bill Belichick (2000)
      3
    • Marvin Lewis (2003)
      29
    • Mike McCarthy (2006)
      5
    • Sean Payton (2006)
      2
    • Mike Tomlin (2007)
      0
    • John Harbaugh (2008)
      13
    • Jason Garrett (2010)
      24
    • Pete Carroll (2010)
      9
    • Ron Rivera (2011)
      4
    • Andy Reid (2013)
      2


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There are only 10 coaches in the NFL who have been their teams head coach for 5 or more years (Gruden, Zimmer, and O'Brien miss by a year - if the Texans and/or the Redskins miss the playoffs, I'd expect them to fire their respective coaches).  Impressive when you consider the turnover rate - there were 12 head coaches hired in the last 2 years alone. 

Which one do you think will be the first to get the axe?  

Belichick would leave before he got fired.  Lewis is seemingly invincible and signed a 2-year extension.  Even if the Seahawks missed the playoffs again, Carroll getting fired seems like a stretch unless they were flat-out terrible.  He is the oldest head coach though. 

Rivera and Harbaugh are on shaky grounds.  Ravens owner already said he considered firing Harbaugh.  If they perform even worse this season, he might be gone.  Panthers have a new owner, which puts Rivera and Hurney on somewhat of a hot seat despite Rivera's proven reputation.  Tepper could want his own guys.

I'll pick Harbaugh though.  It wouldn't shock me if the Ravens made the playoffs, but I don't expect it.  Plus with Ozzie stepping down after he season, a fresh start at GM and HC would make the most sense.

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Garrett might be on hot seat if that Dallas team fails to make playoffs again, or has another underwhelming season. Seems like injuries are the only excuse he has.

Harbaugh running out of seasons as well.

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Mike Brown is notoriously loyal to contract agreements and typically rides out a deal until it's completion. But the whole 2-year extension for Marvin Lewis must come with some year-to-year stipulation. I can't imagine anyone in their right-mind allowing Marvin Lewis to continue coaching if he hypothetically goes 3-13 this season. But then again, Mike Brown isn't in his right mind.

 

He was as good as gone by all accounts at the midpoint last season until he resurrected like the Undertaker and ended the season with two wins to finish a semi-respectable 7-9 (by Bengal standards). 

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Ron Rivera account of the new owner and current GM, there are a couple of people I could see getting the boot (lewis,reid if Mahomes flops,Garret, Caroll etc.)

But none that stick out more than him given he's the least experienced coach on the list.

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Andy Reid or Jason Garrett. Because I don't believe Marvin Lewis will be "fired"

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Mike M from Green Bay, it could be him or Rodgers if the season doesn’t go well. They seem like an average team.

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I feel like this is one of those questions where who should and who will are very different matters. Lewis seems like the obvious answer but clearly he'll be in Cincy until he dies, at this point. Jason Garrett doesn't have a spectacular record, kind of up and down as of late, but he's had 3 out of 4 winning seasons in the last 4 years, and the team stuck with him for 3 straight years of 8-8, so I don't think mediocrity will get him canned, and I don't see Dallas tanking, either. Those, I'd think, would be the obvious choices just based on career record, but they've already survived worse for longer.

Your dark horse candidates could be John Harbaugh or Pete Carroll. I feel like Harbaugh has very quietly coached the Ravens down to 5 years of mediocrity. Only 1 season in the playoffs in the 5 years since the superbowl. Eventually GMs/owners tend to get antsy about mediocrity like that. With them taking Lamar Jackson though, that could either be the spark that revives Harbaugh's run, or it could be the first step to a larger rework. With Carroll I just kind of wouldn't be surprised to see the Seahawks keep declining. The division is strengthening and that roster just doesn't look to be as dripping with talent as it used to. Wilson will keep them from being terrible, but dropping a bit after 5 years of double digit wins could prompt quick changes. It's happened before.

I think Payton, Belichek, Tomlin, and probably McCarthy last until they retire, or at least until their respective QBs retire.

Ron Rivera I honestly have no idea about. New owner could mean loyalty or gut reaction changes. We'll know a lot more there after a year.

Reid should be safe for about two years, IMO. Last year he signed a 5 year extension, IIRC, but his staying power will basically depend on Mahomes. This year will be a mulligan. Whether it's spectacular or horrible, a new, young QB brings unpredictability. The next year I assume they'll expect progress from Mahomes and the team. If Mahomes looks horrid or looks to not be progressing, and the team's record suffers as a result, that's the earliest I could see them canning Reid.

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I'm gonna call it now - Marvin Lewis gets fired this season if the Bengals don't make the playoffs AND win a playoff game.

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clearly Jason Garrett 

cowboys to get a high profile coach to try to get back to relevancy

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Posted (edited)

Pete Carroll: He's the oldest head coach in the league and Seattle is going through a rebuild after overseeing a gradual decline since the Super Bowl loss. There's a strong chance he retires after this season.

Mike McCarthy: He's a goner if GB doesn't at least win a playoff game. 

Andy Reid: Same boat as McCarthy: one-and-done and you're done.

John Harbaugh: He's recently signed an extension that keeps him around until after the 2019-2020 season. With a new GM and new QB coming, they may complete the set by replacing Harbaugh when his contract expires.

Ron Rivera: Consistently getting Carolina into the playoffs and the players love him. He'll likely get another extension when his contract is up.

Mike Tomlin: Pittsburgh prides itself on continuity. Tomlin has his flaws, but he's a good coach and the team is consistently in the playoffs.

Jason Garrett: Recently signed a 5 year $30m contract and is Jerruh's personal brown-noser. Dallas has to absolutely suck and Jerruh starts losing money in order for Garrett to be fired.

Marvin Lewis: Retires when his two year extension expires.

Sean Payton: Would have been coaching in the NFC Championship (and possibly won it) if not for a gaffe that was out of his control.

Bill Belichick: For all we know, Robert Kraft could hate Belichick with the utmost passion. Despite that, Kraft is a smart businessman and isn't going to fire him.

Edited by Elky

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, Elky said:

Jason Garrett: Recently signed a 5 year $30m contract and is Jerruh's personal brown-noser. Dallas has to absolutely suck and Jerruh starts losing money in order for Garrett to be fired.

You've got the Jason/Jerry relationship nailed down.  As for his contract, fortunately,  it's up after next year (2019) and unless he gets the Cowboys not only in the playoffs but more than "one and done",  Stephen is gonna tell Daddy to pass on extending Garrett again ('He's gots to gooo, papa!').   Jerry loved Romo and Dez, but baby boy Stephen pulled up his "huggies" and said "enuff". No more injuries to blame, no more players to blame and no more coordinators/position coaches to blame. 

Bum should've been fired after the 2013 season..

Edited by ///mcompact

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The one on this list who obviously should have been fired long ago is Marvin Lewis.  He seems to be made of Teflon, though, so I'm going to say Mike McCarthy will be the first to go.  He is a good coach, but I think he is sitting on a fairly warm seat right now after having survived the guillotine in the offseason.  Green Bay has a new GM, and unless they have a great season AND postseason, I could see Mike Pettine wanting to go in a new direction with a coach of his own choosing.  

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I'd say Marvin Lewis, but considering he hasn't been fired yet, then I'd say it's far from a sure thing that he gets fired first out of any of those coaches.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Kiwibrown said:

Mike M from Green Bay, it could be him or Rodgers if the season doesn’t go well. They seem like an average team.

McCarthy signed a 2 year extension at the same time they hired the new GM in January.

Reid won the power struggle over Dorsey, he's locked in. Payton / Brees married till one of them retires, so he's not a firing candidate

Harbaugh will or won't depending on the guy ascending to Ozzies throne

Steelers don't change HCs, so Tomlin is safe

maybe Carroll, maybe Garrrett

Marvin Lewis - who cares ?

My guess is that Hue Jackson is the one who will be gone next year

Edited by Shanedorf

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