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Resetting the Runningback Market


Kiwibrown

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12 hours ago, Forge said:
12 hours ago, FourThreeMafia said:

If I were a GM, I would never pay a RB $15m+ per year.   

Im not knocking on those who would....just my personal stance.  

Feel exactly the same, and I think that for a good chunk of players, I may not even give them a second contract (obviously, would depend on several factors). 

Definitely. I'd draft one in the second or third round every couple years and cycle through RBs like that. Keep them on the roster for cheap. Keep cap space for more important positions.

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Depends on the RB. If a friggin WR can now demand and get 17-20M a season, why not the Elite of the Elite RB? Players like Bell, Johnson, Zeke, Gurley get 400+ touches, a WR what 100 receptions?

The fact the NFL has allowed contracts to get out of hand $20M DE/DT, $30M QB, $18-20M WR has changed what a RB should get paid. The Market has changed that number.

Those of you acting like they should still be paid like it's a decade ago are just being petty. I understand the life span of a NFL RB isn't long but this assumption by many especially in the NFL FO that you can run a RB into the ground for his entire Rookie deal, Franchise him 2-3 times over will back fire in years to come.

Will make players in the future with similar skill sets to the 4 above, start demanding 2nd year contract in year 3, not 5 or 6. Hold outs, missed training camps , players actually pulling a Vincent Jackson for 10 Games, Emmitt Smith, ect, ect. Rightfully so IMO.

Let Barkley, Hunt, Kamara, Fournett become the next ......?, I'd bet money "they" after the Bells, Johnson's, Zeke and Gurley's not only get $15+M because the market dictates that in a few years but get that 2nd contract in year 3-4, not 5-6-7 after being used, abused and eventually discarded like Leveon Bell will be after this season. Those days are coming to a end, especially at the RB position. 

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If this post was TLDR, if a WR can get $17-20M, you bet your *** a RB consistently getting 400+ touches will warrant $15+ in years to come. The market will dictate that as will player demands for a earlier contract extension. It's coming!

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18 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

If this post was TLDR

Not TLDR, it just wasn't very good.... B|

RBs can hold out, stomp their feet, fire off twitter blasts or try anything they have in their bag of tricks to get a better deal sooner

And their teams will respond by replacing them in about 13 seconds flat. The actual difference between an elite RB and a non-elite RB on game day isn't worth the $10 million surplus. The RBs, their agents and the teams all know this. Not sure why you'd think otherwise, especially given how your squad handled it

There are LaGarette Blounts and Jay Ajayi's all over the place. Mid-level RBs who can contribute to an SB run for a pittance. That's the reality no matter how much you wish it weren't the case.

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2 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

Not TLDR, it just wasn't very good.... B|

RBs can hold out, stomp their feet, fire off twitter blasts or try anything they have in their bag of tricks to get a better deal sooner

And their teams will respond by replacing them in about 13 seconds flat. The actual difference between an elite RB and a non-elite RB on game day isn't worth the $10 million surplus. The RBs, their agents and the teams all know this. Not sure why you'd think otherwise, especially given how your squad handled it

There are LaGarette Blounts and Jay Ajayi's all over the place. Mid-level RBs who can contribute to an SB run for a pittance. That's the reality no matter how much you wish it weren't the case.

Cute. Hows that philosophy worked for you in GB the past 6-7 years? As a Packers fan one would think you of all people might understand the difference from employing the "cheap/non elite" RB's they've decided to surround Rodgers with and say the Elite of the Elite you don't think are worthy of that money.

Maybe that's the real answer to  the poll question as to why Rodgers doesn't have 2 SB Rings. A Running Game? Not excuse after excuse why this or that game wasn't won.

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51 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

Cute. Hows that philosophy worked for you in GB the past 6-7 years? As a Packers fan one would think you of all people might understand the difference from employing the "cheap/non elite" RB's they've decided to surround Rodgers with and say the Elite of the Elite you don't think are worthy of that money.

Maybe that's the real answer to  the poll question as to why Rodgers doesn't have 2 SB Rings. A Running Game? Not excuse after excuse why this or that game wasn't won.

This is just a poor argument. The 2010 Packers won the superbowl with Brandon Jackson as their primary back all year. They haven't had a worse year than that one for YPA, yet that was the year they won a superbowl. The Pats leading rushers in their superbowl winning seasons have been Antowain Smith x2, Corey Dillon, Jonas Gray, and LaGarrette Blount. 3 decent RBs, 1 very good one, and 1 horrible one. The Eagles just won with a handful of <$2M RBs.

An elite RB helps, sure. But to act like it's essential, or that not having one is why a team like GB hasn't won a superbowl, is just wrong. It's a component just like almost any other position. It is valuable but unnecessary to have elite play there. And whether it's worth paying for it winds up being very situational for the team (Charles was absolutely worth $12M+ for us, for instance, but between his injury history and the other players we were paying a premium to, he'd have never gotten it, hence him getting around $8M per instead.)

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5 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

Depends on the RB. If a friggin WR can now demand and get 17-20M a season, why not the Elite of the Elite RB? Players like Bell, Johnson, Zeke, Gurley get 400+ touches, a WR what 100 receptions?

The fact the NFL has allowed contracts to get out of hand $20M DE/DT, $30M QB, $18-20M WR has changed what a RB should get paid. The Market has changed that number.

Those of you acting like they should still be paid like it's a decade ago are just being petty. I understand the life span of a NFL RB isn't long but this assumption by many especially in the NFL FO that you can run a RB into the ground for his entire Rookie deal, Franchise him 2-3 times over will back fire in years to come.

Will make players in the future with similar skill sets to the 4 above, start demanding 2nd year contract in year 3, not 5 or 6. Hold outs, missed training camps , players actually pulling a Vincent Jackson for 10 Games, Emmitt Smith, ect, ect. Rightfully so IMO.

Let Barkley, Hunt, Kamara, Fournett become the next ......?, I'd bet money "they" after the Bells, Johnson's, Zeke and Gurley's not only get $15+M because the market dictates that in a few years but get that 2nd contract in year 3-4, not 5-6-7 after being used, abused and eventually discarded like Leveon Bell will be after this season. Those days are coming to a end, especially at the RB position. 

.....................

.....................

 

If this post was TLDR, if a WR can get $17-20M, you bet your *** a RB consistently getting 400+ touches will warrant $15+ in years to come. The market will dictate that as will player demands for a earlier contract extension. It's coming!

Was pretty hard to agree with a Eagles fan. But 100% backing ur opinion

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Depends on your offense really. If you are a run heavy team you can afford to pay your back more because you probably aren't paying your good run blocking wide receivers 15 million per year. The QB will still get his but you can focus on paying your RB more than your WR as long as they are competent. You also could pretty much get your pick of the litter on run blocking offensive linemen because their value isn't very high anymore. Rules have made it a passing league so I don't know if a run heavy offense would compete with the top offenses but they should be good enough to compete.

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It all went downhill with Chris Johnson. He went "CJ2k" for a bad Titans team, but then cashed in on an incredibly stupid contract in 2011 (4/$35.5m/$30mm gtd). He then proceeded to tank out for the remainder of that tenure. He wanted QB money, he got QB money (at the time) but he then couldn't accidentally find a yard. 

Now, teams are gun shy to put that kind of money on RBs, citing the diminished returns from a RB on a year to year basis. RB is the one position where the decline is drastic - you could have a perennial 1,200 guy, but when the juice is gone, they're struggling to hit 450 yards at 3/ypc. Why give them another contract if you're basically paying for a decline in production somewhere in this contract?

It's gonna take longevity and an incredible propensity to avoid injuries for a RB to change this narrative. You'll probably also need a RB who does take a cheap deal and drastically overperform his salary. I had high hopes on Adrian Peterson being that guy - but he's not getting that shot, it seems.

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Running back, to me, doesn't seem as important anymore. Maybe with the emergence of guys like Zeke, Todd Gurley, David Johnson and now Barkley we can see the position regain importance again, have to see what happens.

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1 hour ago, EaglesPeteC said:

when was the last time paying a RB a ton of money or having a league rushing leader resulted in a Super Bowl?

The only elite RB to even participate in a SB over the last 10 years was Beast Mode and he's 1-1 in the Title Game. And he wasn't getting paid elite cash at the time. As soon as he did get his Big Payday....two things happened. Seattle stopped going to SBs and Lynch stopped being a Seahawk

There is absolutely no evidence to support this elite RB / elite Pay premise, in fact the evidence strongly points the other way. Teams without elite RBs make and win the SB with regularity AND none of the current elite RBs have ever even made it to a Super Bowl let alone win one

 Bell, Gurley, Zeke, Kamara, Hunt, DJohnson,  McCoy, Freeman, Fournette, MGordon, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, peak Eddie Lacy, Matt Forte, Arian Foster....etc.

Not a single SB appearance among them.

32 NFL teams and 100's of NFL RBs and their agents know this. That's why teams will continue to ride them hard because they know there's a never- ending supply of fresh young legs behind them.

And since elite RBs and elite- paid RBs are not necessary for a Title run - why pay the premium for a non-premium position ?  

 

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1 hour ago, Shanedorf said:

The only elite RB to even participate in a SB over the last 10 years was Beast Mode and he's 1-1 in the Title Game. And he wasn't getting paid elite cash at the time. As soon as he did get his Big Payday....two things happened. Seattle stopped going to SBs and Lynch stopped being a Seahawk

There is absolutely no evidence to support this elite RB / elite Pay premise, in fact the evidence strongly points the other way. Teams without elite RBs make and win the SB with regularity AND none of the current elite RBs have ever even made it to a Super Bowl let alone win one

 Bell, Gurley, Zeke, Kamara, Hunt, DJohnson,  McCoy, Freeman, Fournette, MGordon, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, peak Eddie Lacy, Matt Forte, Arian Foster....etc.

Not a single SB appearance among them.

32 NFL teams and 100's of NFL RBs and their agents know this. That's why teams will continue to ride them hard because they know there's a never- ending supply of fresh young legs behind them.

And since elite RBs and elite- paid RBs are not necessary for a Title run - why pay the premium for a non-premium position ?  

 

Exactly.  This is why the Giants picking Barkley #2 was a terrible pick no matter how good he becomes 

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1 hour ago, EaglesPeteC said:

Exactly.  This is why the Giants picking Barkley #2 was a terrible pick no matter how good he becomes 

Especially with all the QBs and Chubb available. You know, the FAR more important positions on a football team.

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