2018 Draft Eligible QB Thread

[Scout]

11 hours ago, justo said:

Kevin Hogan vs Logan Thomas? Give me Kevin Hogan

 

Anyone seen Drew Anderson out of Buffalo yet?

How is Logan Thomas- Carson Wentz?

[LuckyNumber11]

19 hours ago, Bullet Club said:

Anyone know or heard anything about Easton Stick? He played about half the season for NDSU during Wentz' last year and was hurt. Now he is essentially in his third year as a starter there. A buddy of mine said he's better than Wentz but I've never seen him play.

Went to high school with Stick. He's an insane athlete. Great arm, I personally think NDSU runs with him too much, but that's just me. He's been incredibly efficient this year, completing about 70% of his passes. Don't know about his pro potential here, cause clearly I'm gonna have a strong bias here 

[Zed Rational]

My faith in Baker Mayfield slipped quite a bit this weekend.

My faith in Luke Falk also dropped a little, although I would be happy to draft him in the second or third round and watch him fight to make himself an NFL starter. I just like the way he walked on and made himself a better player every year.

Josh Allen will be a first-round pick, make no mistake about it. He won't (or shouldn't) start as a rookie, but he's got too many traits to drop out of the first round. He's a big lump of gold waiting to be molded.

[Zed Rational]

Wentz or Darnold? They have similar tools, but I'd go with Wentz. He was my QB1 a couple of years ago, and he's starting to justify my belief in him in his second NFL season. Wentz had to come a long way from Smallville U. to the NFL. He was raw last year, but is polishing up pretty nicely.  Darnold has big-time tools, but he's playing in the big time already and throwing an awful lot of interceptions. Plus, I really don't like his footwork (a correctable flaw, but still). I really hope he stays in college for another year. I strongly suspect that both Wentz and Darnold will wind up having successful NFL careers, so there isn't that much to choose from between them, but I'm going to opt for Wentz until Darnold stops throwing the ball to the wrong team quite so often.

[Forge]

20 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Yeah I agree no way he comes out early this year, that would be foolish especially with how he has played.  Still really talented just not worth the top 3 in the draft hype he was getting right at the start of this year.  Tons to work with being that big and athletic with such a strong arm and ability to throw on the move.  Long ways to go though, hopefully he is smart and comes back to continue to work on his game.  It is never good to have such poor outings against not very talented teams, especially like Hawaii...

I feel like it's more likely that he comes out this year than Darnold. I don't think he's tanked his stock nearly as bad as people think. I think he's still going to get a first round grade from the advisory board, quite honestly. I could be wrong, of course, just for some reason that's what I"m thinking. Whether or not he still goes in the first is another question, even if he gets the first round grade from the advisory board. 

[Scout]

Unless things get much worse, Josh Allen will be among the first 32 selections. You can take that to the bank.

[bananabucket]

4 hours ago, Zed Rational said:

Josh Allen will be a first-round pick, make no mistake about it. He won't (or shouldn't) start as a rookie, but he's got too many traits to drop out of the first round. He's a big lump of gold waiting to be molded.

 

Well he's a lump of something.

[Ozzy]

1 hour ago, Scout said:

Unless things get much worse, Josh Allen will be among the first 32 selections. You can take that to the bank.

So then any 6-5 + QB with good athletic ability and a strong arm is a 1st round pick?  Then on that logic Daniel Jones on Duke, Tyree Jackson on Buffalo, Nick Fitzgerald on Miss State, Chase Litton on Marshall and Richard Lagow on Indiana will be as well at some point?  Allen is a 1st round talent, is not playing like one this season I feel, and Jones on Duke has put up arguably better numbers this year against much better competition for example.  Allen is still the better prospect in terms of upside, but still the kid has to show some more and would be smart to return for another year.  He is not playing better than Darnold, Rosen, Jackson, Mayfield, Rudolph, Stidham or even Falk this year.  

Last year Allen never struggled like he has this year with the attention on him.  I mean two games without even 100 yards passing, are you freaking kidding me?  And again it is not like his competition is all that great, Iowa is by far the best competition he will face all year, and they do not even play San Diego State this year.  

 

[Iamcanadian]

On 10/9/2017 at 3:08 PM, RandyMossIsBoss said:

Jay Cutler and NW QBs played some of the toughest competition in college, so of course you can forgive their less than stellar production. Allen hasn't even been particularly good against other crappy teams, and downright awful against power 5 competition. Every non power 5 QB drafted in the first round since 2004

 

Big Ben

• 4,500 yards, 69.1% completions, 165.8 passer rating as junior
• Career vs P5: 3,000 yards, 64% completions, 137.2 passe rating (11 games)

JP Losman

• 3,100 yards, 59.5% completions, 139.9 passer rating
• Career vs P5: 905 yards, 53% completions, 120.5 passer rating (4 games)

Alex Smith

• 3,000 yards, 67.5% completions, 176.5 passer rating as junior
• Career vs P5: 1,700 yards, 70.5% completions, 171.3 passer rating (5 games)

Flacco

• 4,300 yards, 63.5% completions, 144.9 passer rating as RS junior (15 games)

Bortles

• 3,600 yards, 67.8% completions, 163.4 passer rating as a senior
• Career vs P5: 1,463 yards, 66.9% completions, 149.2 passer rating (5 games)

Wentz

• 4,800 yards, ~63% completions, ~153 passer rating in his 23 starts
• vs Iowa St: 18/28, 204 yards

Lynch

• 3,800 yards, 66.8% completions, 157.5 passer rating as a RS junior
• Career vs P5: 1,000 yards, 58.6% completions, 108.7 passer rating (5 games, didn't count Kansas)

 

Josh Allen

• 4,100 yards, 56% completions, 137.7 passer rating in his 21 starts
• Career vs P5: 427 yards, 50% completions, 74.1 passer rating (3 games)

 

Obviously still young and will hopefully tear through MWC comp again, but I think he'd have to stay 4 years to get into the 1st round. Just way too raw, accuracy is simply not NFL caliber. I know scouts will overlook non superb production in QBs with elite traits, but average if not mediocre production? I don't think they'll over look that enough to take him in the 1st. I see a slightly faster, slightly smaller, Logan Thomas in him on the field. Hard to say what's between the ears, I guess that will be the biggest deciding factor with whether 1 team falls in love with him and thinks the project is worth taking on with a 1st, if he even comes out.

I do not think he will stay. playing for a college HC does nothing to improve your game for the pros. He will be far better off coming under a pro QB coach who can make huge improvements to his game. He has all the physical talent in the world, playing for a school that is basically talentless and his stats are not that far off Flacco's.

NFL teams like working with physical talent, many 1st rounders lack production, but are drafted on their physical talent and potential ceiling. Mitch Trubisky was a pefect example of this after starting only in his last year of college.

[Ozzy]

10 minutes ago, Iamcanadian said:

I do not think he will stay. playing for a college HC does nothing to improve your game for the pros. He will be far better off coming under a pro QB coach who can make huge improvements to his game. He has all the physical talent in the world, playing for a school that is basically talentless and his stats are not that far off Flacco's.

NFL teams like working with physical talent, many 1st rounders lack production, but are drafted on their physical talent and potential ceiling. Mitch Trubisky was a pefect example of this after starting only in his last year of college.

Maybe but Trubisky and Josh Allen in terms of production right now are no were near the same.  Trubisky played a little those first two years in college, but that JR year had 280 and 2 TDs against Stanford in the bowl game, 280 and 3 against NC State, 405 and 3 against FSU, 299 and 2 against Miami and 453 and 5 against Pitt.  Not great outings against VT and Georgia but still he is playing way more impressive competition and actually producing unlike Josh Allen so far this year.  Sure maybe if Allen puts up 300-400 yard games against this weak competition coming up in their schedule but he has a long ways to go to even accomplish that.  

Sure some players are drafted on potential but almost all of them produce and are proven, especially in that year they declare.  This is not the NBA in terms of teams drafted completely on potential alone.  College football is basically a minor league for the NFL and proven players get picked.  Even potential players still flashed and showed a lot in terms of ability and production at least for a year.  

 

Last years draft was odd in the fact that many players were in many ways a one year wonder, or had only one year of being extremely productive and or playing at a high level or starting at all.  Guys like Trubisky, TJ Watt, Lattimore, McKinley and Ramczyk.  So far TJ Watt looks like a stud and not surprising, Trubisky looked impressive at times with throws he made but that WR core is so bad and the OL is not great he could get really beat up this year.  And the rest still have a ways to go, Ramczyk looks ok but got beat in pass pro more than once.  That trend could continue but I doubt it with that many one year production guys being picked that high.  Maybe Deontay Burnett on USC but still he is a borderline 1st rounder and flashed years before, or Roquan Smith but really he is pretty solid last year also.  So honestly I cannot think of any flash player on one year success in the up coming draft at the moment like last years group.   

 

[CWood21]

59 minutes ago, Iamcanadian said:

I do not think he will stay. playing for a college HC does nothing to improve your game for the pros. He will be far better off coming under a pro QB coach who can make huge improvements to his game. He has all the physical talent in the world, playing for a school that is basically talentless and his stats are not that far off Flacco's.

NFL teams like working with physical talent, many 1st rounders lack production, but are drafted on their physical talent and potential ceiling. Mitch Trubisky was a pefect example of this after starting only in his last year of college.

I vehemently disagree with you on this one.  In his final season at UNC, Trubisky completed 68% of his passes with a 5-1 TD-INT ratio.  Allen, on the other hand, is completing 55.4% of his passes with a 2-1 TD-INT ratio.  If a GM is dumb enough to draft Josh Allen in the first round purely off physical tools, they deserve to be fired.  Josh Allen has done absolutely NOTHING to justify investing a 1st round pick into him.  This is Christian Hackenberg all over again.

[CWood21]

3 hours ago, Scout said:

Unless things get much worse, Josh Allen will be among the first 32 selections. You can take that to the bank.

I feel like we said the same thing about Brett Hundley...and that's all fine and dandy if a team wants to use their 1st round pick.  While other teams are reaching for projects in the first round, that'll allow some really talented players to fall down the draft board and teams like Green Bay, Philadelphia, etc. who have their QBs in place continue to collect more talented players.

[Scout]

14 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I feel like we said the same thing about Brett Hundley...and that's all fine and dandy if a team wants to use their 1st round pick.  While other teams are reaching for projects in the first round, that'll allow some really talented players to fall down the draft board and teams like Green Bay, Philadelphia, etc. who have their QBs in place continue to collect more talented players.

Hundley doesn't have 1/2 the talent 

[Scout]

I'll probably have him graded 2nd/3rd. But yeah he's going to go much higher than that. 

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, Scout said:

Hundley doesn't have 1/2 the talent 

This talent?  The same arm talent that has him posting mediocre numbers?  This whole discussion is getting beyond nauseating.  We're literally seeing people do the exact same thing that people did for Christian Hackenberg a few years ago.  Constantly making up excuses for why the player isn't performing up to standards.  First it's his teammates, than it's the level of competition, and next it's going to be someone didn't teach him how to play QB properly.  I honestly don't think I've seen a group as a whole make as many excuses for a player as we're seeing with Josh Allen.  Yes, he's tremendously talented but at some point production and play have to match that talent.  And at this point, it's not even close to being the case.