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2018 Draft RB Thread


CalhounLambeau

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On 2/25/2018 at 4:32 AM, jrry32 said:

John Kelly Jr. is insanely underrated. Tennessee and Butch Jones did everything they could to keep that kid down. He actually rushed for more yardage on less carries than Alvin Kamara in 2016. Now, Kamara is the more talented player because of his long speed, but Kelly can be a good three-down HB in the NFL. His pass protection technique needs refining, but I think he'll be fine there. If anything, he's too aggressive and physical. He ducks his head and tries to truck blitzers instead of staying square and using his hands. He definitely has the willingness, physicality, and strength to be a quality player there. And I think he's going to be a very dynamic receiver because of the sharpness of his cuts, his soft hands, and his ability to break tackles and make tacklers miss in space. He rarely goes down on first contact. I see a guy who will be a better NFL HB than a college HB because of how atrocious that Tennessee offense was this year. Some team is going to get a gem in the mid-rounds.

Don't like him. No special traits. That being said, several RB's that were solid in all areas ended up becoming good players, but I'm greedy. I want the freak athlete in my backfield. He's going to touch the ball more than anyone on my team that isn't the QB and I want that guy to be a physical specimen that has either crushing power or track speed. John Kelly has neither. I know I'm picky when it comes to RB's, but I don't see superstar out of him. What does he do that is so exceptional?

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9 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

Don't like him. No special traits. That being said, several RB's that were solid in all areas ended up becoming good players, but I'm greedy. I want the freak athlete in my backfield. He's going to touch the ball more than anyone on my team that isn't the QB and I want that guy to be a physical specimen that has either crushing power or track speed. John Kelly has neither. I know I'm picky when it comes to RB's, but I don't see superstar out of him. What does he do that is so exceptional?

I'm highly impressed by his ability to break tackles and make tacklers miss. He runs angry. I'm also highly impressed by the sharpness of his cuts as a route runner.

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Just now, jrry32 said:

I'm highly impressed by his ability to break tackles and make tacklers miss. He runs angry. I'm also highly impressed by the sharpness of his cuts as a route runner.

I've only watched him play 2x in-full. How does he compare to Kareem Hunt? Because that's who he sounds like based on your depiction of him.

-Hunt was an angry dude that had hands out of the backfield and could smash your face in between the tackles. I think Hunt had a much stronger lower body and had better balance.

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3 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

I've only watched him play 2x in-full. How does he compare to Kareem Hunt? Because that's who he sounds like based on your depiction of him.

-Hunt was an angry dude that had hands out of the backfield and could smash your face in between the tackles. I think Hunt had a much stronger lower body and had better balance.

Hunt was a thicker back. Kelly has similar balance. I'd say Kelly is quicker than Hunt, but he's not as strong. It's hard to compare vision with how terrible Tennessee's OL was this year.

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On 2/26/2018 at 11:01 AM, BleedTheClock said:

Don't like him. No special traits. That being said, several RB's that were solid in all areas ended up becoming good players, but I'm greedy. I want the freak athlete in my backfield. He's going to touch the ball more than anyone on my team that isn't the QB and I want that guy to be a physical specimen that has either crushing power or track speed. John Kelly has neither. I know I'm picky when it comes to RB's, but I don't see superstar out of him. What does he do that is so exceptional?

I don't think anyone is really projecting "superstar" with Kelly.  Beyond Barkley, i'm not really inclined to label any of the other backs in this draft as likely "superstars".  There are some solid guys who will churn out a lot of yards for teams, and a lot of really interesting "niche" guys who have the potential to put together some special seasons in the right system/role (and probably a lot of fantasy football value).  But i don't think it's a draft overflowing with obvious quality every down workhorse guys.

Kelly is a guy who has the nice all 'rounder skillset to do that.  He may not have any one specific standout trait to hang his hat on, but he does a lot of everything pretty well.  He's a physical runner with great balance to pile up those unglamorous 4 yard carries in heavy traffic.  He's got some kinda surprising elusiveness in space when he needs it.  He catches the ball well.  He's got some suddenness and decisiveness to his running and vision.  He's got potential as a pass protector too.  It's not just a collection of mediocre stuff with him...it's a collection of above average sort of abilities, across a broad range of things that could keep him on the field a lot.  Getting on the field a lot is valuable imo.

He's not a real home run threat track star masquerading as a RB destined for a niche role.  He's not a 230lb big man power back prototype either.  But he is built thick and solid, with a lot of compact power (and leverage) to run powerfully inside.  And the hands and versatility to do everything else at a reasonable level.  Not a special, or "superstar" back...but the sort of guy who has the traits to get on the field for an awful lot of snaps for a team and grind out yards for them in a bunch of different ways.  Without tipping what's going on, or having to be schemed into the right sort of touches.

 

I like him for a lot of the same reason i like Guice, who i also don't think has any particular "special" quality.  Guice has that extra size, and a bit more home-run threat going for him...but i see them as similar sort of quality all 'rounders.  Not the backs you build an offense around, but with enough talent to get the job done in a lot of different ways.  I really like "low maintenance" backs who you can just throw out there and expect them to do well enough in whatever you've got called.

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1 hour ago, IDOG_det said:

Then why is he your #2 RB

I don't particularly love the Bradshaw comp for Kerryon Johnson.  Feel like it often just gets leaned on as a kinda sloppy catch-all comp for the good, solid, all around guys who don't do any one thing particularly special.  But i think it also often tends to draw too much of a negative connotation.  Assuming the comp is to a prime Bradshaw...a 1000+ yard rusher who adds another 300 through the air isn't a bad player at all.

Can't speak for the other guy, but i like Johnson as RB #3 in this class.  Which isn't necessarily about him being amazing, but more that this feels like a deep, but not very stacked draft at the top of the RB class.  Barkley (top of the 1st), Guice (early 2nd)...and then sorta tails off.  Which is where Kerryon being a good, comparatively safe all around back who has some workhorse traits and few glaring weaknesses is attractive.  In a class just littered with guys who look more specialized, as various role players.  Plenty of guys with the narrow band skillsets and potential to really catch fire and outproduce Kerryon as pros in the right system and deployment...but i still like a good every down workhorse.  There's an element of, you know what you're getting there...

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On 2/26/2018 at 12:12 PM, jrry32 said:

I'm highly impressed by his ability to break tackles and make tacklers miss. He runs angry. I'm also highly impressed by the sharpness of his cuts as a route runner.

He's definitely a special player.  A notch below Kamara but definitely a guy who can be a premier back in the NFL.  I'm currently going back and forth between him and Ronald Jones II for who should be my #3 ranked RB in this draft after Saquon Barkley and Rashaad Penny.

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On 2/26/2018 at 12:01 PM, BleedTheClock said:

Don't like him. No special traits. That being said, several RB's that were solid in all areas ended up becoming good players, but I'm greedy. I want the freak athlete in my backfield. He's going to touch the ball more than anyone on my team that isn't the QB and I want that guy to be a physical specimen that has either crushing power or track speed. John Kelly has neither. I know I'm picky when it comes to RB's, but I don't see superstar out of him. What does he do that is so exceptional?

So you would have said no to Alvin Kamara as well?  Since he isn't a freak athlete with track speed or crushing power.  That's sort of a ridiculous standard to hold a RB to.  Very few guys fit that bill and are actually great in the NFL.  Most of the best NFL running backs ran 4.5 or slower at the combine and they do it more with instincts, vision, and the ability to make people miss than they do being freak athletes.  See Le'Veon Bell.

And FTR you are wrong about John Kelly not having a special trait.  Like Kamara, they have special balance and an ability to break tackles.  That skill usually translates from college to the NFL and in many cases the a decent predictor of pro success.  The best RBs in the NFL are the ones that break tackles or force guys to miss.  John Kelly is elite in that category.  And he'll prove it once he gets to the NFL.

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3 hours ago, VanS said:

So you would have said no to Alvin Kamara as well?  Since he isn't a freak athlete with track speed or crushing power.  That's sort of a ridiculous standard to hold a RB to.  Very few guys fit that bill and are actually great in the NFL.  Most of the best NFL running backs ran 4.5 or slower at the combine and they do it more with instincts, vision, and the ability to make people miss than they do being freak athletes.  See Le'Veon Bell.

And FTR you are wrong about John Kelly not having a special trait.  Like Kamara, they have special balance and an ability to break tackles.  That skill usually translates from college to the NFL and in many cases the a decent predictor of pro success.  The best RBs in the NFL are the ones that break tackles or force guys to miss.  John Kelly is elite in that category.  And he'll prove it once he gets to the NFL.

Yeah I was low on Kamara. I had him going in the middle of the 3rd round, which is the approximate range he went in. I was shocked he had as much success as he did to be honest. But Kamara did have special receiving traits and an elite short burst. That being said, I didn't like his lack of long speed combined with a thin frame.

 

I was an enormous Le'Veon Bell fan coming out of MSU. He was 250 pounds, mean, and had elite vision. He didn't have superfreak traits athletically, but he was a very big back that was a handful to tackle. I wanted the Browns to trade Trent Richardson and trade down from #6 overall (Mingo) and get Le'Veon Bell because I loved his game so much. It was easy to see Bell had some special traits that not many other RB's could imitate.

 

I'm gonna miss on some of the just solid swiss army knife RB"s that are out there, but I don't hide the fact that it's a slightly flawed ideology I have on the runners. I want to be blown away by your highlight tape if you're a RB. I'm of the opinion that RB's are very important to your team and if you can find a superstar runner, it's tough to beat your team. The thing is, the VALUE of a RB is low because there are so many great runners out there. So if I'm picking a runningback that I plan to hand the ball to 20-25x a game, I want him to be the most physically talented guy on the field. If I can't find a guy like that, I wouldn't even bother drafting one. Just find a FA or UDFA. I know there are a lot of holes in my theory, but it's the way I'd approach the RB position if I were a GM.

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On 3/9/2018 at 8:44 PM, BucShot said:

Kamara is definitely a freak. The combine might not accurately measure the freak, but he's definitely a freak athlete with the ball in his hands.

Yes he is. Kamara's freak trait to me coming out of Tennessee was short-area burst and gear. That jumped out at me on tape.

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