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2018 Draft RB Thread


CalhounLambeau

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On 3/3/2018 at 2:48 AM, Tugboat said:

I don't think anyone is really projecting "superstar" with Kelly.  Beyond Barkley, i'm not really inclined to label any of the other backs in this draft as likely "superstars".  There are some solid guys who will churn out a lot of yards for teams, and a lot of really interesting "niche" guys who have the potential to put together some special seasons in the right system/role (and probably a lot of fantasy football value).  But i don't think it's a draft overflowing with obvious quality every down workhorse guys.

Kelly is a guy who has the nice all 'rounder skillset to do that.  He may not have any one specific standout trait to hang his hat on, but he does a lot of everything pretty well.  He's a physical runner with great balance to pile up those unglamorous 4 yard carries in heavy traffic.  He's got some kinda surprising elusiveness in space when he needs it.  He catches the ball well.  He's got some suddenness and decisiveness to his running and vision.  He's got potential as a pass protector too.  It's not just a collection of mediocre stuff with him...it's a collection of above average sort of abilities, across a broad range of things that could keep him on the field a lot.  Getting on the field a lot is valuable imo.

He's not a real home run threat track star masquerading as a RB destined for a niche role.  He's not a 230lb big man power back prototype either.  But he is built thick and solid, with a lot of compact power (and leverage) to run powerfully inside.  And the hands and versatility to do everything else at a reasonable level.  Not a special, or "superstar" back...but the sort of guy who has the traits to get on the field for an awful lot of snaps for a team and grind out yards for them in a bunch of different ways.  Without tipping what's going on, or having to be schemed into the right sort of touches.

 

I like him for a lot of the same reason i like Guice, who i also don't think has any particular "special" quality.  Guice has that extra size, and a bit more home-run threat going for him...but i see them as similar sort of quality all 'rounders.  Not the backs you build an offense around, but with enough talent to get the job done in a lot of different ways.  I really like "low maintenance" backs who you can just throw out there and expect them to do well enough in whatever you've got called.

Charley Casserley, a former GM, who is responsible for a # of Hofers who he drafted, says you are dead wrong. He has given 6 RB's first round grades, a pretty high # for a secondary position on a football team!!! It is definitely one of the strengths of this draft.

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7 minutes ago, Iamcanadian said:

Charley Casserley, a former GM, who is responsible for a # of Hofers who he drafted, says you are dead wrong. He has given 6 RB's first round grades, a pretty high # for a secondary position on a football team!!! It is definitely one of the strengths of this draft.

Who’s been wrong more than Charley Casserly since he left the Redskins? His percentage is like a meteorologist.”

-- Bill Belichick

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12 minutes ago, reamer said:

Who’s been wrong more than Charley Casserly since he left the Redskins? His percentage is like a meteorologist.”

-- Bill Belichick

If you just take all their final rankings, I haven't seen where Casserley has been all that terrible. The trouble with the mocks on NFL.com, is that each guy is forced to come up with a different mock every week to keep viewers watching. There are really on 2 mocks/rankings that are worth looking at, for practically every prognosticator, their post Combine and their final one. All the rest have been forced on them and can easily be misleading. 

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No matter how you feel about the RB class (I personally like its depth a lot even if it can’t be as good as the 2017 class) it’s hard to get countered with B.B. for a take by Casserky and not concede the credentials argument.  :D

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FWIW one phenomenon I’ve observed of late in draft class evaluation more & more is recency bias.  The last drafts outcome influences the valuation of the present draft more than the actual talent.  

After 2014’s legendary WR class the numbers of WR taken in Rd1 stayed really high afterwards - even when the talent didn’t match.   I’d argue we saw the same after 2010’s & 2011’s T class panned out in Rd1 at really high rates.   Subsequent years saw high #’s of 1st round picks who busted out.   Trying to catch 2010-11’s magic.  

Why do I mention this?   Because I think we will see the same with RB / CB this year after last year’s success (although speed and short area quickness rules all nowadays with CB draft stock).  But I also believe ppl will be quicker to label 1st round guys who may be good not great because of the subconscious reaction to the prior years success.  

I think it explains a lot of discord in these groups.  That and the need to be first to call a fast riser nowadays.  

I really would be surprised if we saw more than 2 RB go Rd 1 although I could see a team want to move up to get that 5th year option it’s dirt cheap for RB.   The depth of RB also contributes to its devaluation.  

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10 hours ago, Broncofan said:

The depth of RB also contributes to its devaluation.  

This is more the problem than anything. There are so many good RB's that the market is flooded. RB's are extremely important to have, but almost every team has 1-2 very good ones. There are only ever like 3-5 teams that really need a runningback in any given year. While some may bash the idea of taking a RB in the top half of the 1st round, there are special exceptions at the position that warrant that high of a selection. Hell, Saquon Barkley warrants the #1 overall selection...it just so happens that Cleveland has a hilariously burning need at QB or else he'd likely go #1.

There is no proper way to build your team. Don't fall for the trap of thinking "you don't draft (insert position here) at (insert draft position here) EVER!" Trust your gut and don't feel the need to always be so conventional.

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11 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

This is more the problem than anything. There are so many good RB's that the market is flooded. RB's are extremely important to have, but almost every team has 1-2 very good ones. There are only ever like 3-5 teams that really need a runningback in any given year. While some may bash the idea of taking a RB in the top half of the 1st round, there are special exceptions at the position that warrant that high of a selection. Hell, Saquon Barkley warrants the #1 overall selection...it just so happens that Cleveland has a hilariously burning need at QB or else he'd likely go #1.

There is no proper way to build your team. Don't fall for the trap of thinking "you don't draft (insert position here) at (insert draft position here) EVER!" Trust your gut and don't feel the need to always be so conventional.

100 percent agreed.   Last year should have shown there are so many ways to build a team.   I would say though - there is one key element - make sure it's a key difference-maker, or it's providing value.   And the draft board does matter on how it's falling.  It's why RB's are devalued.  But it's not absolute.  If a guy is enough of a difference-maker...well, that's our current debate lol.

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13 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

If you just take all their final rankings, I haven't seen where Casserley has been all that terrible. The trouble with the mocks on NFL.com, is that each guy is forced to come up with a different mock every week to keep viewers watching. There are really on 2 mocks/rankings that are worth looking at, for practically every prognosticator, their post Combine and their final one. All the rest have been forced on them and can easily be misleading. 

Oh, I agree he's fine with his rankings. I just thought it was a hilarious quote from a normally closed-mouth individual. :D

That said, I'm not sure what to make of this RB class. I think there are a lot of solid contributors, but I'm not sure I see any superstars other than Barkley. I like the Georgia backs, but I still wouldn't draft either one in the first. It's just how it goes.

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10 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

almost every team has 1-2 very good ones. There are only ever like 3-5 teams that really need a runningback in any given year. 

:/ 

Burkhead, White, Gillislee really invoke fear in opposing defenses...

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On 3/15/2018 at 8:52 AM, Broncofan said:

100 percent agreed.   Last year should have shown there are so many ways to build a team.   I would say though - there is one key element - make sure it's a key difference-maker, or it's providing value.   And the draft board does matter on how it's falling.  It's why RB's are devalued.  But it's not absolute.  If a guy is enough of a difference-maker...well, that's our current debate lol.

 

Basically. The problem is that drafting a RB top 5 means they are getting top 5 RB money as a rookie (Fournette and McCaffery both make top 10 RB money) so they have to have top 5-10 production to justify the contract. Top 5 at most other positions equate to 25-50% of the cost of a premier talent at given position, which is significant for roster talent maximization (even if they do 100% hit as elite). To me a RB is only worth a high pick if they have the offensive infrastructure to maximize his talent (ala the Cowboys). So this year maybe the Browns at 4 because they have a good oline but thats it. Round 2 and later, the money drops off making RBs much more valuable as a draft commodity.

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3 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

I don't think you know what almost means. New England is one of those 3-5 teams.

Was more just highlighting that my favorite team is one of the unlucky 3-5 teams that doesn’t have an especially good runningback.

Y’all get pretty defensive in here sometimes. 

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1 minute ago, Yin-Yang said:

Was more just highlighting that my favorite team is one of the unlucky 3-5 teams that doesn’t have an especially good runningback.

Y’all get pretty defensive in here sometimes. 

You tryna go bro? I'm like super hardcore. I bench 500 pounds and am 136-0 in street fights. Don't test me bro.

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IMO, at least 3 RB's will go round 1, possibly 4. running the ball still equates to around 33% of a team's offense and that is still significant enough to warrant a 1st round pick if a good one comes along. Teams might like to wait till round 2, but when you are looking at a guy you absolutely love, waiting is not always an option for the GM involved, because he might know, he will never get that guy with his next pick??? I suspect, Barkley, Guice and Jones are the front runners!

With 6 1st round grades on RB's, RB's like Kelly will fall significantly, but hey Hunt and Kamara all went round 3, so it hardly matters if you have talent!   

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1 hour ago, Iamcanadian said:

IMO, at least 3 RB's will go round 1, possibly 4. running the ball still equates to around 33% of a team's offense and that is still significant enough to warrant a 1st round pick if a good one comes along. Teams might like to wait till round 2, but when you are looking at a guy you absolutely love, waiting is not always an option for the GM involved, because he might know, he will never get that guy with his next pick??? I suspect, Barkley, Guice and Jones are the front runners!

With 6 1st round grades on RB's, RB's like Kelly will fall significantly, but hey Hunt and Kamara all went round 3, so it hardly matters if you have talent!   

3 RB's in the 1st? I think it's likely we see only 1 taken in the 1st. Guice is good, but he should be there in the 2nd. Ronald Jones/Sony Michael/Nick Chubb have no shot of going in the 1st.

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