2018 Draft RB Thread

[HTTRDynasty]

Interesting read: https://www.fantasyguru.com/articles/yards-created-2018-stacked-boxes

Guice faced a stacked box 73% of the time according to this article with a 5.88 YPC avg.  That's ridiculous. 

Barkley faced a stacked box 55% of the time with a 7.12 YPC avg, which is also insane.

[Rich7sena]

2 minutes ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

Interesting read: https://www.fantasyguru.com/articles/yards-created-2018-stacked-boxes

Guice faced a stacked box 73% of the time according to this article with a 5.88 YPC avg.  That's ridiculous. 

Barkley faced a stacked box 55% of the time with a 7.12 YPC avg, which is also insane.

Nice find. I didn't think LSU's offense did Guice any favors with all those tight formations they run. 

[BleedTheClock]

26 minutes ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

Interesting read: https://www.fantasyguru.com/articles/yards-created-2018-stacked-boxes

Guice faced a stacked box 73% of the time according to this article with a 5.88 YPC avg.  That's ridiculous. 

Barkley faced a stacked box 55% of the time with a 7.12 YPC avg, which is also insane.

Yeah this doesn't shock me at all. Guice had to battle for every yard this year. The LSU passing offense made me want to vomit. Defenses had to love facing LSU knowing that all they had to do was load up and stop the run and make sure Chark didn't beat them vertically. Guice has every tool in the toolbox, but I did see him try to spin and juke his way out of bad situations a little more than I'd like. That being said, he was harassed behind the LOS a lot, as was Barkley. I just wish Guice was more consistently violent instead of flashy. Flash is not going to be a significant part of his NFL game. Barkley can do all that bouncing and moving because he's a freaky lateral athlete with ungodly explosion. I think that will translate to the NFL whereas Guice is going to be more of a pounder.

Also, while Barkley faced a stacked box less than some of the other RB's in the class, his OL was freaking horrendous and he had to make something out of nothing more than any of the top 10 RB's in the draft. Even more than Guice, which is saying something.

[Iamcanadian]

49 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

Yeah this doesn't shock me at all. Guice had to battle for every yard this year. The LSU passing offense made me want to vomit. Defenses had to love facing LSU knowing that all they had to do was load up and stop the run and make sure Chark didn't beat them vertically. Guice has every tool in the toolbox, but I did see him try to spin and juke his way out of bad situations a little more than I'd like. That being said, he was harassed behind the LOS a lot, as was Barkley. I just wish Guice was more consistently violent instead of flashy. Flash is not going to be a significant part of his NFL game. Barkley can do all that bouncing and moving because he's a freaky lateral athlete with ungodly explosion. I think that will translate to the NFL whereas Guice is going to be more of a pounder.

Also, while Barkley faced a stacked box less than some of the other RB's in the class, his OL was freaking horrendous and he had to make something out of nothing more than any of the top 10 RB's in the draft. Even more than Guice, which is saying something.

When I see guys complaining that a top program had a very weak OL, I really have to take you to task. Penn St. hardly had a freaking horrendous OL, I'll bet you at least one of them ends up a high draft pick in a later season! It may not have been completely solid, but it sure wasn't horrendous, especially for run blocking!!

I do agree that Guice will be more of a pounder, but he can go wide as well and should be a very solid NFL RB. Both he and Barkley, obviously faced defenses that were basically stacked to stop the run and it probably took away some of what they were capable of doing. Should acxtually be a bit easier for both at the next level.

[BleedTheClock]

30 minutes ago, Iamcanadian said:

When I see guys complaining that a top program had a very weak OL, I really have to take you to task. Penn St. hardly had a freaking horrendous OL, I'll bet you at least one of them ends up a high draft pick in a later season! It may not have been completely solid, but it sure wasn't horrendous, especially for run blocking!!

Deal. What do you constitute as a high draft pick? First 3 rounds? Because I'll take that bet all day. Assuming we're counting the starters on that OL from this past season. Their best OL, Brandon Mahon, is going to be a 5th-6th round pick this season if he's lucky.

[Iamcanadian]

22 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

Deal. What do you constitute as a high draft pick? First 3 rounds? Because I'll take that bet all day. Assuming we're counting the starters on that OL from this past season. Their best OL, Brandon Mahon, is going to be a 5th-6th round pick this season if he's lucky.

Well, we both know Brandon isn't going to be a 3rd rounder, but they, according to Phil Steel's magazine had 2 sophs and a junior starting as well, Connor McGovern OC 6'5" 312 lbs. SO., Ryan Bates LT 6'4" 312 lbs. SO. and Chasz Wright RT, 6'7" 354 lbs. JR. Not sure if they all finished the season as starters, if you have a more truer roster, please present it and we will see if any of them ever make round 3 at least!!!

May the best man win!!!

[Tugboat]

17 hours ago, Forge said:

Personally, would rather have Ito

What particularly do you like about Ito over Wadley?  Watching Wadley, i see some real patience, vision, and lateral slipperiness as both a runner and as a receiver in space.  He's probably not going to be any kind of true feature back, but he finds yards everywhere, even inside...and plays bigger than his small size.  With Ito, i don't really see the same.  I'm just struggling to see anything remarkable at all.  He looks like a late/PFA flier to me.

[Danger]

12 hours ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

Interesting read: https://www.fantasyguru.com/articles/yards-created-2018-stacked-boxes

Guice faced a stacked box 73% of the time according to this article with a 5.88 YPC avg.  That's ridiculous. 

Barkley faced a stacked box 55% of the time with a 7.12 YPC avg, which is also insane.

Not to mention Penn State's O-Line is pretty bad as a whole.

[Forge]

4 hours ago, Tugboat said:

What particularly do you like about Ito over Wadley?  Watching Wadley, i see some real patience, vision, and lateral slipperiness as both a runner and as a receiver in space.  He's probably not going to be any kind of true feature back, but he finds yards everywhere, even inside...and plays bigger than his small size.  With Ito, i don't really see the same.  I'm just struggling to see anything remarkable at all.  He looks like a late/PFA flier to me.

For the bolded - I do think that he'll get drafted, but certainly it'll be in that 6-7 range, but I love that value, especially if you think Wadley goes in the first 5 rounds. I think they are very, very similar in what they bring to the table at the next level. 

I really like his vision at the line, I think he has a knack for finding creases in the line to pick up yards that not all running backs will see, so I do disagree there.  Also runs low to the ground and compact when he's at or around the line. I don't see him stutter step often and get dancing feet often, though sometimes he may be a little too patient in less than ideal situations (I don't want you taking a long and slow approach to an inside dive when you're on your own two yard line...just hit the line and get what you can), which I do from time to time on Wadley. But largely his patience is fantastic. His patience and vision are two of the things I actually like more than what I see from Wadley (the offset of this is that I wish he were more instinctive...that long deliberate approach may not work so well at the next level). He's got shiftiness and the ability to make people miss in space. He may like to do that hard stop a little too much, which probably won't work as well at the next level, but it shows the control he has. Very natural pass catcher and he runs good routes, and not just basic swing passes. Already has experience lining up as a receiver. Wadley has this too, of course, but I mention it because it's not something that Wadley can claim over Smith.   I think he's a bit more explosive than Wadley firing off as well and gets to his top end speed faster, though obviously his top end speed isn't super special, but it's sufficient enough. Also underappreciated - I think he does a solid job as a blocker already. Obviously, given his size, he's not going to be a beast at it, but he willing and able. Stays in for quarterback protection, I've also seem him be the lead blocker in 2 running back sets, etc. 

[BigD88]

16 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

When I see guys complaining that a top program had a very weak OL, I really have to take you to task. Penn St. hardly had a freaking horrendous OL, I'll bet you at least one of them ends up a high draft pick in a later season! It may not have been completely solid, but it sure wasn't horrendous, especially for run blocking!!

I do agree that Guice will be more of a pounder, but he can go wide as well and should be a very solid NFL RB. Both he and Barkley, obviously faced defenses that were basically stacked to stop the run and it probably took away some of what they were capable of doing. Should acxtually be a bit easier for both at the next level.

I agree with your last couple of sentences... but Penn State's OL was horrendous when it came to run-blocking.

For the record, Brendan Mahon suffered an injury in the first 3 weeks of the season and played hurt ever since, but is a fringe talent anyway.  McGovern and Bates will both be drafted in coming years (Will Fries may as well) - but we're talking about a true sophomore playing Center for the first time, a sophomore guard who was kicked out of position to Left Tackle for the first time, and a freshman who was thrown into the mix at RT after Andrew Nelson was taken out by knee injuries in September and Chasz Wright was proven to be ineffective.  Not to mention, Ryan Bates suffered an injury during the Ohio State game and from then on, PSU could barely get a single yard on offense that afternoon.  Barkley averaged -0.5 yards before contact for that game, just as a reference for what he was dealing with.

It's old news, but sanctions did a real number on Penn State's offensive line and they still feel the effects of it today.  Mainly because talented guys who will be drafted someday (like Bates and McGovern) have to play way too early out of necessity, whereas in a typical situation they wouldn't see the field until year 3 at the earliest.  So people look at the line from afar and see 2 or 3 talented or highly regarded prospects and go "pfft, come on, they couldn't be THAT bad."  They were.

[thebestever6]

I think  Guice goes a lot higher than people think I could see San Fran. I don't think he's that much different than Fournette.

[Forge]

45 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

I think  Guice goes a lot higher than people think I could see San Fran. I don't think he's that much different than Fournette.

After just shelling out all that money to McKinnon? No way. McKinnon, Breida, Williams is likely what we are going to roll with. I see no shot at Guice going #9 to the 49ers. Far too many bigger needs besides. 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

After just shelling out all that money to McKinnon? No way. McKinnon, Breida, Williams is likely what we are going to roll with. I see no shot at Guice going #9 to the 49ers. Far too many bigger needs besides. 

Plus Guice doesn’t fit at all with what Shanahan wants.   Guice is a 2-down thumper.   Shanahan would draft a RB with pass catching chops to go with McKinnon like he did with Freeman and Coleman.  

49er fans know this but for others remember that Shanahan pounded the table to take Joe Williams.  It’s like us and Paxton Lynch last offseason (diff position but same level of attachment).  It’s no lock Williams will work out but it’s hard to see Shanahan turn his back after redshirting him last year.   Breida provides nice insurance for Williams.   McKinnon probably sees 12-15 carries and 6-8 targets while the other 2 compete for the 10-12 carries and 4-5 targets that McKinnon gives up (he’s not a workhorse guy 15 carries should be his ideal weekly max). 

[mitch_connor]

6 hours ago, Forge said:

After just shelling out all that money to McKinnon? No way. McKinnon, Breida, Williams is likely what we are going to roll with. I see no shot at Guice going #9 to the 49ers. Far too many bigger needs besides. 

I could see them drafting a RB, but not in the first few rounds. I agree that you don't give McKinnon that contract just to invest an early pick at the position.

[Tugboat]

On 05/04/2018 at 4:55 PM, Broncofan said:

Plus Guice doesn’t fit at all with what Shanahan wants.   Guice is a 2-down thumper.   Shanahan would draft a RB with pass catching chops to go with McKinnon like he did with Freeman and Coleman.  

49er fans know this but for others remember that Shanahan pounded the table to take Joe Williams.  It’s like us and Paxton Lynch last offseason (diff position but same level of attachment).  It’s no lock Williams will work out but it’s hard to see Shanahan turn his back after redshirting him last year.   Breida provides nice insurance for Williams.   McKinnon probably sees 12-15 carries and 6-8 targets while the other 2 compete for the 10-12 carries and 4-5 targets that McKinnon gives up (he’s not a workhorse guy 15 carries should be his ideal weekly max). 

I don't really see Guice as some 2 down thumper totally lacking pass-catching chops out of the backfield.  In fact, i think part of his value is in the fact he should be able to do a good bit of pretty much everything at the next level.  Pass-catching obviously wasn't a featured element for him in that offense, but he's shown plenty of indication that he can do it...and probably pretty well.  He's not your prototypical pass-catching/plays in space waterbug type 3rd down back, and he's not going to be a guy you frequently split out wide in spread sets...because he's built to handle the the heavier early down work as well, but he's got some ability as a receiver.  His hands are alright, and he's a challenge on the edge with a nice combo of size/physicality and some shiftiness and make-you-miss ability.