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Just a follow-up on the LB/TE/FB body type discussion. I checked last year because I know the NFL has skewed towards slimmer/faster body types.

Last year we carried 12-14 of that body type, depends on how you look at it (we also had Biegel on PUP).

5 OLBs + 3 ILBs + 3 TEs + 1 FB

Others that could be included in terms of STs:

Devante Mays

Josh Jones

I'd probably include Mays (at 230), but Jones is a tossup for me and probably depends on how staff views him.

 

All I'm saying is that there's a possible argument/precedent for 12-13 of that body type based on how the NFL has evolved.

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1 minute ago, MrBobGray said:

On a side note, am I the only really high on Pipkins?  I feel like he showed out really well last year in his limited reps, he's had a good camp by all accounts, he's received some strokes for his ST play in preseason, and has generally been a very solid depth player.  He's very strong filling against the run and they've played him on the boundary and the slot.  He's not an elite athlete but I really like what I've seen of him, and I really hope he sticks as the 6th CB.

I think you can do more with Waters, (and there might even be an argument for Brown/Goodson [probably not a great one due to age]) over Pipkins.


Waters would be my guy at this point, but who knows what they're looking for at that last spot?

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9 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

Lol.  Hundley will "maybe" continue his career as a backup.  Also lol at Hundley not possibly being able to get us a 5th round comp pick and it being a long shot to get us a 6th round comp pick. 

I swear people here think there are 12 good players at every position just floating around in oblivion in the NFL.

Bridewater just signed a 6 million dollar deal and he's had two passes in the past two years.  In the two years he played he had 28 touchdown passes in 28 starts.  Teams aren't even sure on his medical and he got a 6 million dollar deal when he wasn't even a great QB to begin with. 

The Vikings just traded a fifth round pick for Siemian to be a backup. 
The Packers traded a tarting corner with 10 interceptions in 3 years for a no-win backup QB.
The Redskins traded Fuller and a third for Alex Smith.
The Browns traded a third round pick for Tyrod Taylor.
The Jaguars traded a 7th round pick for Kessler.
The Redskins moved down in the sixth round for Hogan.

That's four trades for backup quarterbacks in one offseason alone with two of the backup quarterbacks being awful, worse than Hundley. 

It might be a rumor, but the Seahawks just tried to trade for Jacoby Brisset.  A second round pick for a player who had 4 more touchdowns and 5 less interceptions in 6 more starts than Hundley. 

This isn't a league where backup quarterbacks do what Foles just did.  This is a league where if your QB gets hurt, you hope like hell your backup doesn't suck too much to get you out of a game or two with a solid game plan.  Mike Glennon got 15 million dollars last year and we all know the Bears knew they were drafting a QB.

If we wanted to trade Hundley now, we could probably get a minimum of a sixth round pick for him.  If we wait, we could probably get a minimum of a 6th round compensatory pick for him.  Talk like he's worthless is neglecting the fact that there 32 teams need 2 quarterbacks, ideally with experience, and there aren't 60 quarterbacks in the league who have had the as good experience or production Hundley has. 

Demovsky's said a few times this offseason that he talked to a scout/exec who told him that last offseason, Hundley's value was seen as being around a 4th, but after 2017, it was down to nothing (in another conversation, Demovsky reported it as "lucky to get a 7th"). if we trust that, I don't think hundley's value goes back up with preseason performances. Maybe we get a comp pick, but I have to think his trade value is pretty low at the moment.

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33 minutes ago, Cakeshoppe said:

Demovsky's said a few times this offseason that he talked to a scout/exec who told him that last offseason, Hundley's value was seen as being around a 4th, but after 2017, it was down to nothing (in another conversation, Demovsky reported it as "lucky to get a 7th"). if we trust that, I don't think hundley's value goes back up with preseason performances. Maybe we get a comp pick, but I have to think his trade value is pretty low at the moment.

Especially when teams know we want to keep Kizer. Expecting anything out of Hundley is foolish. 

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36 minutes ago, Cakeshoppe said:

Demovsky's said a few times this offseason that he talked to a scout/exec who told him that last offseason, Hundley's value was seen as being around a 4th, but after 2017, it was down to nothing (in another conversation, Demovsky reported it as "lucky to get a 7th"). if we trust that, I don't think hundley's value goes back up with preseason performances. Maybe we get a comp pick, but I have to think his trade value is pretty low at the moment.

I don't care who said it honestly.  If Kessler and Hogan could get essentially 7th round picks, and considering the state of backups in the NFL, I refuse to believe we couldn't get some team to give us a 6th or 7th round pick.  

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28 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

I don't care who said it honestly.  If Kessler and Hogan could get essentially 7th round picks, and considering the state of backups in the NFL, I refuse to believe we couldn't get some team to give us a 6th or 7th round pick.  

A big difference is that we are talking about trading a player at cut-down time, not in April or May like those other two. The Packers couldn't even get anyone to trade for Josh Sitton when they tried to unload him at cut-down time. 

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22 minutes ago, Greg C. said:

A big difference is that we are talking about trading a player at cut-down time, not in April or May like those other two. The Packers couldn't even get anyone to trade for Josh Sitton when they tried to unload him at cut-down time. 

Difference is that Sitton was owed a lot of money.  Teams rarely trade for those contracts.  

I doubt GB would get more than a late round pick for Cobb.

I wonder if it would be worth keeping Hundley and Kizer until the trade deadline.  You never know who gets injured and becomes desperate for a QB.  

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12 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

On a side note, am I the only really high on Pipkins?  I feel like he showed out really well last year in his limited reps, he's had a good camp by all accounts, he's received some strokes for his ST play in preseason, and has generally been a very solid depth player.  He's very strong filling against the run and they've played him on the boundary and the slot.  He's not an elite athlete but I really like what I've seen of him, and I really hope he sticks as the 6th CB.

It depends if they want to keep Rollins, if they do he will be CB number 6 or S number 4 or 5.

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This is an excellent article that was written last year, really an in depth look at the work of NFL Scouts

This section talks about what happens at cut down time in August - especially for the Pro Personnel staff. But its an in depth article and covers a ton of info on the unheralded work that happens behind the scenes to get to the 53 man roster and keep it stocked all year long

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/8/24/16195480/life-of-pro-scouts

The Unheralded Work of Pro NFL Scouts

 

Exploit Roster Cutdowns

“The month of August is a grind,” McCartney said. That’s the time of year when teams are playing preseason games, scouts are evaluating backups and back-of-roster guys, and clubs are trying to decide who to cut and who to keep when final roster cuts are due.

“This year is different because teams will go from 90 to 53 in a day,” he said. That’s a big change from previous years, when teams were required to cut down to 75 players after the third preseason game. Now franchises have to cut a whopping 37 players after the fourth game. “So, that puts a tremendous amount of stress on the pro department because they’ll have about 1,200 players available all at once. So they have had to prepare and have strong opinions on many potential players that are on that list. They’ll be constantly debating, working with the coaching staff and other scouts, ‘Is Player A an upgrade on what we have on our current roster?’ And, injuries are always playing a part.”

To laser in on a list of candidates for trades or waiver-wire claims, pro scouts are tasked with identifying players worth claiming, while at the same time limiting that list to players who stand a chance of getting cut. “The pro department is responsible for providing the decision-makers with a best guess of which players we think will be available,” Hatman said. “Say I don’t have a fifth corner I like [on my team]. We already have paid attention to all the teams that have seven corners on their roster that we think are worthy, because very few teams can carry seven corners on their 53-man roster. So we’re going to be paying attention to that, and have already vetted all those players, and maybe we call about a trade and just say, ‘Hey, we think you might cut one. Would you want to just trade one?’”

Sometimes, well-established pro personnel departments look to take advantage of the turmoil a regime change creates for another franchise. “I know when we were at the Eagles, we always put extra attention on new staff,” McCartney said. “New coaching staffs — sometimes they’re making their full evaluation on their 53-man roster without seeing their team play a true game. So, new staffs can make mistakes with existing players that get off to a slow start with the new scheme or whatever. So, we put a little bit of extra attention on teams with new staffs.”

The scouts’ best guesses on final 53-man rosters come primarily from their own evaluations, but they also scour media predictions for a little bit of help as well. “If we think it’s a qualified opinion, we’re going to listen,” Hatman said. “Now, how much that gets weighed in, that depends, but we’ll look at the six beat writers, here’s all their on-or-off lists, and if five of the six think this guy is going to be available, we’re going to go ahead and leverage that.”

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Updating mine: Pre-game Preseason Game 3

Suspension List: RB Aaron Jones

QB    (3) Rodgers, Hundley, Kizer
RB    (2) Williams, Montgomery
FB    (1) Ripkowski
TE    (3) Graham, Lewis, Kendricks
WR   (7) Adams,  Cobb, Allison, Kumerow,  Moore, MVS, EQ
OT    (4) Bakhtiari, Bulaga, Murphy, Spriggs   
OG    (3) Taylor, McCray, Bell
OC    (2) Linsley, Patrick
            
DT    (3) Daniels, Clark, Adams
DE    (3) Wilkerson, Lowry, Looney   
OLB  (6) Matthews, Perry, Gilbert, Fackrell, Donnerson, Biegel
ILB    (3) Martinez, Burks, Thomas
CB    (6) Williams, King, Alexander, House, Jackson, Rollins
SS    (2) Brice, Jones    
FS    (2) Clinton-Dix, Whitehead    
            
STs (3) K Crosby, P Scott, LS Triner

 

A bit short at RB for the first two weeks, but hopefully Rip and Cobb can help out if needed there. For when Jones comes back, either Rip, Bell or a WR gets cut. A bit short at ILB but I think some of the OLBers can help out as back-up ILB. From the little I've heard, Crosby hasn't missed with Triner snapping it and the ST coach seemed to suggest he preferred Triner consistency but noted that it's completely up to Gute and MM.

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Nice list, Beast.  Looks very realistic.  

How often do they keep 25 offensive guys?  I think it's perfectly appropriate to do so this year, but I seem to think having an extra defender or two is more common, no?  But yeah, go with the talent. 

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34 minutes ago, craig said:

Nice list, Beast.  Looks very realistic.  

How often do they keep 25 offensive guys?  I think it's perfectly appropriate to do so this year, but I seem to think having an extra defender or two is more common, no?  But yeah, go with the talent. 

Thanks! :)

They've been keeping 25 offensive players pretty consistently lately, though considering STs coverage lines up better with defenders, it'd be easy to make an argument for an extra athletic good tackler such as S Evans. And I think the Packers would basically be starting over as far as their ST gunners this year based on this roster (but hopefully the new punter will make it easier on them).

There is always some late moving after the 53 man cut down (such as Jones coming off suspension), but as far as roster numbers I can find (2010 through 2017)

# on O : Which years

26 offensive guys: 2011, 2010

25 offensive guys: 2017, 2016, 2015

24 offensive guys: 2014, 2012

23 offensive guys: 2013

On average, over the last 8 years, the initial 53 man roster has had 24.75 offensive players.

Including 3 of the last 3 years... of course this is the first year with Gute.

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On 8/23/2018 at 9:49 PM, Beast said:

Updating mine: Pre-game Preseason Game 3

Suspension List: RB Aaron Jones

QB    (3) Rodgers, Hundley, Kizer
RB    (2) Williams, Montgomery
FB    (1) Ripkowski
TE    (3) Graham, Lewis, Kendricks
WR   (7) Adams,  Cobb, Allison, Kumerow,  Moore, MVS, EQ
OT    (4) Bakhtiari, Bulaga, Murphy, Spriggs   
OG    (3) Taylor, McCray, Bell
OC    (2) Linsley, Patrick
            
DT    (3) Daniels, Clark, Adams
DE    (3) Wilkerson, Lowry, Looney   
OLB  (6) Matthews, Perry, Gilbert, Fackrell, Donnerson, Biegel
ILB    (3) Martinez, Burks, Thomas
CB    (6) Williams, King, Alexander, House, Jackson, Rollins
SS    (2) Brice, Jones    
FS    (2) Clinton-Dix, Whitehead    
            
STs (3) K Crosby, P Scott, LS Triner

 

A bit short at RB for the first two weeks, but hopefully Rip and Cobb can help out if needed there. For when Jones comes back, either Rip, Bell or a WR gets cut. A bit short at ILB but I think some of the OLBers can help out as back-up ILB. From the little I've heard, Crosby hasn't missed with Triner snapping it and the ST coach seemed to suggest he preferred Triner consistency but noted that it's completely up to Gute and MM.

I think you probably have 50 right - add 1 more RB, 1 less WR, and either Rollins doesn't make the team or they get rid of 1 of the mediocre QB's. Maybe 1 LB short.

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QB    (2) Rodgers, Kizer  - (Hundley has a year left on his deal and doesn't fit the offense.  Boyle to PS.) 
RB    (3) Williams, Montgomery, Daniels - (Williams is hurt, Monty is 1 play away, and Daniels looks like the best of the rest.)  
FB    (0) - (This is the year.  If MM needs a FB in five weeks, chances are Kerridge could be pulled off of the street.  Kendricks can fill in at HB.)
TE    (4) Graham, Lewis, Kendricks, Tonyan - (Lewis and Kendricks could be gone next year.  Graham is oft injured.  Tonyan looks like a willing blocker and a nice pass catcher.)
WR   (7) Adams,  Cobb, Allison, Kumerow,  Moore, MVS, EQ
OT    (4) Bakhtiari, Bulaga, Spriggs, Murphy   - (Spriggs looked better at LT than RT.    I like his athleticism.  Murphy for now - unless someone better pops up on waivers.)
OG    (3) Taylor, McCray, Pankey - (Pankey over Bell because Pankey can also fill in at RT.)
OC    (2) Linsley, Patrick - (I hope they can sneak Day to the PS.)
            

DT    (3) Daniels, Clark, Adams 
DE    (2) Wilkerson, Lowry  
OLB  (6) Matthews, Perry, Gilbert, Fackrell, Donnerson, Biegel
ILB    (3) Martinez, Morrison, Thomas - (
I'll take Thomas over Martini - but I'd be fine with either.)
CB    (6) Jackson, Williams, King, Alexander, House, Waters/Rollins/Goodson/Hawkins - (I think that this could be Goodson for his ST ability.  I hate seeing Pipkins go)  
SS    (2) Brice, Jones    
FS    (3) Clinton-Dix, Evans, Whitehead    
            
STs (3) K Crosby, P Scott, LS Triner

IR: Burks

 

PS - Day, Boyle, Yancey, Mays, Light, Martini, Mbu, Looney

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